A Tale of Two Bennings

[JamesB]

The Canucks are off to an excellent start, better than almost anyone predicted. Personally, in the pre-season prediction thread I had them as just making the playoffs. So far they are doing much better than that. They have the best winning percentage in the conference and the best goal differential in the conference (tied with Boston for best in the NHL).

 

The MoneyPuck website right now (Nov. 4) has the Canucks as the most likely team to win the Cup! See http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

 

The Benning loyalists are seeing this as a vindication of Benning -- he knew what he was doing all along.

 

There are not as many Benning critics as there used to be but there are still some who would say that after 4 years with the worst aggregate record in the NHL (depending on how you measure it) and a series of correspondingly high draft picks, the Canucks were due to make a recovery and that Benning got very lucky with a couple of picks. 

 

My take is a bit different and, as I have not often seen it mentioned, I thought I would describe it here. Specifically, I think Benning has learned on the job and has been much better in the last couple of years than in his first three. That should not be a shock. Learning by doing is one of the most fundamental aspects of most human activities. Benning was a rookie when he first became GM and it should not be a surprise that he had to learn on the job.

 

His background was in scouting and drafting so that was his strength from Day 1. But everything else was a struggle. The early record was not good for player-for-player trades (Guddy, Sutter, Prust, etc.), trading picks for older prospects (Vey, Baertschi, Pedan, etc.), signing UFAs (Eriksson, Gagner, Del Zotto, etc), and re-signing players (overpaying Sbisa, Sutter, etc.). Not every single move worked out badly. For example, the Baertschi trade was pretty good in my view. However, I think the overall record was poor and nothing that happens now really changes that.

 

However, Benning has been much better recently, particularly re-signing players. I remember Benning saying in the early years that it should not take long to re-sign players and, sure enough, he reached agreement quickly. But with both Horvat and Boeser, Benning was very patient, took his time, and signed both to excellent deals. I would say that over the last couple of years, every player re-signed has been resigned to a good deal.

 

And his approach to UFAs is much better now. Both the Ferland and Myers deals are reasonable and Benn (who leads the team in +/-, by the way) is a steal, with Benning taking advantage of a situation where a player wants to "come home".

 

And, right now the trade of Miller for a first round pick (and a third) is looking excellent as Miller is playing much better than the expected value of a mid-range first round pick -- and he is doing it now, not 3 or 4 years down the road. I thought it was too early to make that kind of move but it now looks like a good time. The Pearson for Guddy trade is also looking good, as is the pick-up of Leivo for a B prospect.

 

However, the key is drafting. The reason the Canucks look likely to make the playoffs and maybe even make a deep run is due mainly to the high draft picks: EP, Boeser, Hughes, Horvat (picked by Gillis), and let's not forget Demko, picked by Benning as a second rounder. EP, Hughes, Boeser, and Demko are looking like, at a minimum, good front-line players (first line, first pairing, #1 goalie) and maybe elite players. Those are the hardest pieces to find and if you can draft 3 or 4 elite players in 6 years that is a great record, even if you do have high picks. That more than makes up for any number of minor mistakes.

 

I still would have preferred Benning to focus on the draft from Day 1 and I think the Canucks would be further ahead now if he had. But maybe Benning was getting a lot of valuable experience early in other areas of the job and is now able to capitalize on it. And of course one theory is the "stealth tank" -- that Benning knew that the Canucks needed some high draft picks but needed to pretend to be trying to "win now" to keep ownership happy. I don't believe that theory as it is does not seem at all like Benning's style, but it is out there.

 

Anyway, I don't want to get carried away, but this team is obviously looking very good. And, with the key players all signed through next year (except Markstrom but with Demko in line to take over if necessary), the team should be even better next year as the young guys currently playing on the team improve further and other young guys like Lind or Tryamkin might help the team. The Canucks have a shot to be really good this year and next year with EP and Hughes still on entry-level contracts, and Boeser, Horvat, Edler and other core players on very reasonable contracts.

 

 

 

 

 

[RonMexico]

2 minutes ago, JamesB said:

My take is a bit different and, as I have not often seen it mentioned, I thought I would describe it here. Specifically, I think Benning has learned on the job and has been much better in the last couple of years than in his first three. That should not be a shock. Learning by doing is one of the most fundamental aspects of most human activities. Benning was a rookie when he first became GM and it should not be a surprise that he had to learn on the job.

 

 

Disagree on this point.

 

You learn on the job as AGM. Then when you take over, you already know all the ins and outs. Granted his mentor was clearly suspect but you don't fall backwards into a Cup.

 

I do agree that learning by doing is a fundamental aspect of human activity but in this case, I think doesn't 100% apply. There are a few things you will learn on your own but by and large you gotta have a really good idea if you were an AGM first.

 

To my eyes, I saw a team in disarray and he tried to plug the holes of a sinking ship. Sure there were more misses than hits in the early going but that's par for the course in this business.

[EB43]

The future is bright

 

[xereau]

'Member when I said I wanted a quick puck moving team with speed?  ~That was awesome.

[DADDYROCK]

This is also without any luck at the B.S. lotto draft,I can still see Jims or Trevors sad faces when we continually got screwed.

Good thing Mr. Benning knows drafting,because we have a much deeper team and it is all due to his expertise at drafting and trading for talented,character guys.

We can all have hope again, to win our first ever STANLEY CUP.How great will that be for all the Canuck fans around the globe.

[Nuxfanabroad]

Under the MG era, the team didn't seem to have many channels/lines of comm in the trade biz. So JB quickly deals with Ducks, Chi, LA, Cal, TO(basically lots of nasty rivals) & others. Kinda let the League know our shop was again open to all customers. Deals it seemed aimed at benefiting all parties, not merely trying to pick unsuspecting pockets(although Dubas may beg to differ!)

 

Maybe he did TWO re-thingys simultaneously? Retooled the team, which appeared valiant/honorable(like Monty Python's infamous Black Knight:^). There was no scorched earth, dredge the bottom, praying for Lotto-love. Accepting relatively high picks, as a decent compensation, for playing with full effort. Aware there's no depth for(inevitable) injuries on a smaller, older cast. This is where stealth might enter the conversation. You stay at the roulette table, but only bet small & bide time.

 

Meanwhile the prospects were a scorched earth rebuild? Apparently wanted to punt almost all of MG's youth/projects, even to Utica's detriment, for a season or two. For the second aspect here to jive, you absolutely HAVE to draft some gems, or 5 yrs on you're back to square one.(see Burke's tenure in TO if curious how that looks).

Edited November 4, 2019 by Nuxfanabroad

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

12 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Under the MG era, the team didn't seem to have many channels/lines of comm in the trade biz.

Supposedly that's because he burned a lot of bridges as a player agent before he became GM.

 

I don't blame Mike Gillis for having to deal with that BS during his tenure, but I do think he mishandled the coaching (keeping AV too long) and goaltending (letting Luongo languish) situations for which he deserved to be canned.

[NUCKER67]

He wanted to try and keep them competitive during the challenging transition from the Sedins era to Bo and the new core. I think he did that, if it weren't for those late season injuries every year. He re-stocked the prospect pool with promising players and good depth. He's drafted some excellent players, and has surrounded them with character, gritty guys. I think more people are thinking the Canucks could have a playoff team this year. 

 

When Benning came in, it was 3 years after the SCF run, Luongo and Schneider were both gone, and Kesler was wanting out. Bo Horvat was the only shining light as a prospect. I believe he also had to hire a new coaching staff. That was a difficult situation to come into. Burrows and Bieksa would leave, the Sedins would retire. He had Bo Horvat to build a team around, and what a team it looks like today. Full prospect pool, depth, league leading stars, after only 5 1/2 years. 

[Coconuts]

Benning watching all the hard work him and his team have put in begin to pay off like

 

[BrockBoester]

 

Thread praising GMJB

 

Poster named "JamesB"

 

Fair play, Mr. Benning! Didn't know you frequented these wonderful message boards!

Edited November 5, 2019 by BrockBoester

[Dr. Crossbar]

Multiple things were happening simultaneously, early on especially, given the scope of change that needed to take place. It's remarkable really. Those NTCs and the Sedins' contracts were obviously the timeframe of preparation.

 

I actually think it was a great thing to walk into as far as having a built-in timeline to work with. The NTCs and Sedins' contracts ensured change could only happen at a certain pace, which afforded drafting and develipment.

 

I'd even say it's been a tale of three or four Bennings.

 

 

[Stelar]

14 games in folks. Way too early to claim anything about the season. Things are looking good but the wheels could come off at any time. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Stelar

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Stelar said:

14 games in folks. Way too early to claim anything about the season. Things are looking good but the wheels could come off at any time. 

Maybe we’re just a good team, and we will continue to (mostly) play well and make a top three seed in our division?  

[Stelar]

2 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Maybe we’re just a good team, and we will continue to (mostly) play well and make a top three seed in our division?  

Maybe we do but there is sure a lot of crazy talk around here about this team. We are growing and that’s awesome. Games are fun. But I also remember a post I made a couple years ago when the season was about this old and we started great saying how happy I was for Benning because of all the heat he had taken.  Then things fell apart. 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Stelar said:

Maybe we do but there is sure a lot of crazy talk around here about this team. We are growing and that’s awesome. Games are fun. But I also remember a post I made a couple years ago when the season was about this old and we started great saying how happy I was for Benning because of all the heat he had taken.  Then things fell apart. 

Who were our top players then, and who are our top players now?  We are a good team, and are led by young guys who are good.  Plus we have a lot more depth at every position, right?  

[VegasCanuck]

2 hours ago, JamesB said:

The Canucks are off to an excellent start, better than almost anyone predicted. Personally, in the pre-season prediction thread I had them as just making the playoffs. So far they are doing much better than that. They have the best winning percentage in the conference and the best goal differential in the conference (tied with Boston for best in the NHL).

 

The MoneyPuck website right now (Nov. 4) has the Canucks as the most likely team to win the Cup! See http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

 

The Benning loyalists are seeing this as a vindication of Benning -- he knew what he was doing all along.

 

There are not as many Benning critics as there used to be but there are still some who would say that after 4 years with the worst aggregate record in the NHL (depending on how you measure it) and a series of correspondingly high draft picks, the Canucks were due to make a recovery and that Benning got very lucky with a couple of picks. 

 

My take is a bit different and, as I have not often seen it mentioned, I thought I would describe it here. Specifically, I think Benning has learned on the job and has been much better in the last couple of years than in his first three. That should not be a shock. Learning by doing is one of the most fundamental aspects of most human activities. Benning was a rookie when he first became GM and it should not be a surprise that he had to learn on the job.

 

His background was in scouting and drafting so that was his strength from Day 1. But everything else was a struggle. The early record was not good for player-for-player trades (Guddy, Sutter, Prust, etc.), trading picks for older prospects (Vey, Baertschi, Pedan, etc.), signing UFAs (Eriksson, Gagner, Del Zotto, etc), and re-signing players (overpaying Sbisa, Sutter, etc.). Not every single move worked out badly. For example, the Baertschi trade was pretty good in my view. However, I think the overall record was poor and nothing that happens now really changes that.

 

However, Benning has been much better recently, particularly re-signing players. I remember Benning saying in the early years that it should not take long to re-sign players and, sure enough, he reached agreement quickly. But with both Horvat and Boeser, Benning was very patient, took his time, and signed both to excellent deals. I would say that over the last couple of years, every player re-signed has been resigned to a good deal.

 

And his approach to UFAs is much better now. Both the Ferland and Myers deals are reasonable and Benn (who leads the team in +/-, by the way) is a steal, with Benning taking advantage of a situation where a player wants to "come home".

 

And, right now the trade of Miller for a first round pick (and a third) is looking excellent as Miller is playing much better than the expected value of a mid-range first round pick -- and he is doing it now, not 3 or 4 years down the road. I thought it was too early to make that kind of move but it now looks like a good time. The Pearson for Guddy trade is also looking good, as is the pick-up of Leivo for a B prospect.

 

However, the key is drafting. The reason the Canucks look likely to make the playoffs and maybe even make a deep run is due mainly to the high draft picks: EP, Boeser, Hughes, Horvat (picked by Gillis), and let's not forget Demko, picked by Benning as a second rounder. EP, Hughes, Boeser, and Demko are looking like, at a minimum, good front-line players (first line, first pairing, #1 goalie) and maybe elite players. Those are the hardest pieces to find and if you can draft 3 or 4 elite players in 6 years that is a great record, even if you do have high picks. That more than makes up for any number of minor mistakes.

 

I still would have preferred Benning to focus on the draft from Day 1 and I think the Canucks would be further ahead now if he had. But maybe Benning was getting a lot of valuable experience early in other areas of the job and is now able to capitalize on it. And of course one theory is the "stealth tank" -- that Benning knew that the Canucks needed some high draft picks but needed to pretend to be trying to "win now" to keep ownership happy. I don't believe that theory as it is does not seem at all like Benning's style, but it is out there.

 

Anyway, I don't want to get carried away, but this team is obviously looking very good. And, with the key players all signed through next year (except Markstrom but with Demko in line to take over if necessary), the team should be even better next year as the young guys currently playing on the team improve further and other young guys like Lind or Tryamkin might help the team. The Canucks have a shot to be really good this year and next year with EP and Hughes still on entry-level contracts, and Boeser, Horvat, Edler and other core players on very reasonable contracts.

 

 

 

 

 

While I generally agree with you and gave you a +1, I agree that Benning was a rookie GM, but I don't attribute that to how long it took us to get here as much as I do the No Trade / No Movement clauses that were handed out left right and center by previous management team.

 

Yes, Benning has had a couple of misfires, Eriksson being the most obvious, the same could be said about pretty much every GM in the NHL. I'm pretty sure that Calgary would have liked to undo the Neal signing (although, he's working out okay in Edmonton), and don't get me started about Edmonton signings. What about Los Angeles and their trade for / buyout of, Phaneuf, or their signing of Kovalchuk. Not to mention their Mike Richards fiasco.

 

Its hard to look around the NHL and not find a GM that wouldn't like a do over on someone. Its not an easy position being a GM, always having to be at the front of the crowd and trying to make the team better and sometimes making the wrong gamble in doing it.

 

Overall, I think the Benning has done a good job of putting this team together and building our depth of prospects to a level that I don't think we've ever had.

 

Looking forward to the future and seeing how far this team can go, now that its ready to compete again.

[189lb enforcers?]

Great, interesting thread. 

 

Most expensive rebuild ever. 

All part of the plan... (lol ya, sure) that’s where my perspective will differ from most on here. 

 

I can forgive all of it because JB changed the character and style of play/players on the Canucks and for that, I graciously bow in respect. 

 

I like the style of game being played way more than I did the Sedin years, for instance. This franchise is no longer mired in disrespect and the circus routine it had become. 

 

Two Bennings is right, the one who listened to his boss and the other who was given the green light, I assume. 

 

I love this team. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by 189lb enforcers?

[butters]

1 hour ago, DADDYROCK said:

This is also without any luck at the B.S. lotto draft,I can still see Jims or Trevors sad faces when we continually got screwed.

 

No one got screwed. That's the way it works. 

[King Heffy]

Benning's definitely learned on the job, although I still think a lot of his "mistakes" made sense at the time.   I definitely appreciate that Benning's more than willing to cut his losses on a mistake and move on (Gagner, Gudbranson).  One underrated aspect of his "rebuild on the fly" is that each and every one of his draft picks have had to earn a spot on the roster.  Even if the placeholders haven't been great, I'd rather have a higher standard than Megna in order for a young guy to make the team.

[Guest]

I totally agree. 

 

I think things could have gone really sideways considering how bad MG was at drafting and that our players were on the older side. MG basically left Benning very little to work with, (with the exception of Horvat and Markstrom).

 

Benning has done a really good job drafting in the last three years and trading for good young players. He totally deserves a lot of the credit for picks such as Petey, Hughes, Demko and Boeser. Also some good news is that ownership is really buying into what Benning is doing and not pressuring him to "WIN NOW" like at the start of Benning's tenure. This is why I think he had to sign Ryan Miller and Radim Vrbata at the start. You can read the letter ownership sent out to season ticket holders and evidently see that ownership and Benning are on the same page which is always good to see. 

 

If things continue like they are right now, we might start selling out games again and many fans will jump back on bandwagon. In BC, 80% of the fans are bandwagon fans so that's a big deal. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Guest