Biggest Positive and Negative Surprises at the Halfway Point

[JamesB]

1. We are at the halfway point in the season. The Canucks sit in 14th place out of 31 teams, just marginally ahead of 4 other teams but with the best record in the Division based on winning percentage or goal differential. Right now the Canucks are clearly favored to make the playoffs. MoneyPuck (at the low end) has them at 55% to make the playoffs but Hockey Reference (at the high end) has them at 80% to make it. 

 

2. The Canucks are on pace for 96 points. This is a bit better than most people expected. I just took a look at the prediction thread and not many people had them challenging for the Division title despite the inevitable home bias. My predictions were similar to a lot of others. I predicted 92-97 points and just making the playoffs (i.e. as a wildcard team).

 

3. Every year there are positive and negative surprises for every team. I think it is interesting to reflect on those things at the halfway point, especially as we have the prediction thread on CDC to refer back to.

 

4. Relative to my predictions, there are two really big positive surprises. The first is Miller. I did not like the trade as I thought giving up a first round pick and a third round pick for a solid middle six winger currently in his prime was too much. I am happy to say I turned out to be very wrong as Miller is playing like a star. A point a game, great in face-off circle, physical game, good defense. Among Canuck forwards he is 2nd in hits and 2nd in blocked shots. He has not played a lot of PK but has been very good when he has. His PK goals against per 60 is better than Horvat, Beagle, Sutter, Schaller, and Pearson. (Eriksson and Motte are slightly ahead of Miller.) Miller has been the poster boy for the "complete player". That trade looks great now. Miller is playing like you might expect of a top 5 pick. 

 

5. The other big positive surprise for me is Hughes. While Benning indicated before the season that Hughes would get a look with the big team, it was far from clear he would stick right away and a lot people expected him to be sent to Utica to develop his pro game. But he hit the ground running (not the best metaphor for a ice hockey). He is already a good top 4 D, and leads the Canuck D in corsi, despite getting his share of tough minutes, and is one of the favorites and maybe the favorite for the Calder trophy. The big surprise is his defensive play. I expected him to really struggle with the defensive side of the game as most forwards are bigger and stronger than he is, but his biggest asset on defence is keeping the puck away from the other team due to his skating and puck-handling abilities and his high hockey IQ.

 

6. The other items I have listed as surprises are not actually very big surprises from my point of view. I also did not mention Virtanen, who has taken another step forward, and Gaudette (same thing). Those guys now provide a good third line (playing with Roussel). And I did not mention Horvat, who is having another good year and is doing a great job as captain. But I don't think those things are big surprises.Also, Erkisson has been surprisingly good since joining the Horvat line, but the sample size is too small to say much at this stage. 

 

7. On the negative side, there is not much to complain about.  I listed Sutter but I was not really expecting much and I thought all along that, even if Sutter is healthy, Gaudette should be 3C, dropping Sutter to the 4th line. I also listed Myers. Myers has actually been pretty good and is a big upgrade on Pouliot (who often played the right side last year). But, in Winnipeg he  played like a 4/5 D, not like a top pairing D, and that is where he is on the Canucks. But if he is your #5 D, you actually have a good D overall.  I also listed the Beagle line. But those guys (Schaller, Beagle, and Motte) play a valuable role on the PK and they play a physical, high-energy game that wears down the opponents. And they are good enough defensively to take at least some of the shutdown minutes. They might be better than than the 4th lines the Canucks had in their President's Trophy years. Not really much of a negative surprise. 

 

8. I also listed Ferland. That is really an injury issue and I would not expect much from him this season. But, in fact, the Canucks have been relatively healthy. So I am not sure there is much to complain about here either.

 

Bottom line: The Canucks have had a good first half. They started the first half strong, had a lull, then finished the first half strong. I like the way things are setting up for the second half. And the guys in Utica are doing well and could provide some help down the road if needed. I would still like to see Baertschi get another shot and Rafferty is having a fantastic season. Lind has also made great progress and might earn a look with the big team this season.  

 

Anyway, I would interested in any comments that people have. 

Edited January 4, 2020 by JamesB

[Silky mitts]

Jt for sure is the biggest surprise. And for Hughes most people expected him to come in and be dominant , you could tell from his short stint last year his skating alone would allow him to flourish.

 

Ferland was risky and I guess it’s the most disappointing since he might not play again, but the Myers contract isn’t too good either but atleast he is a nhl quality d man, and in controlled minutes and a good partner is effective 

[BCNate]

I put the PP as a positive surprise, but probably would have gone with Virtanen's play of it were an option.

[Shift-4]

An 'other' biggest surprise at this point is being ahead of the Oilers, Flames and Sharks in the standings.

[BrockBoester]

I loves me a good survey!

 

I would have said poll had it not sounded too.. innuendo-ish

 

Miller, Hughes, Gaudette, Virtanen, Benn, Myers, Leivo, and Pearson have been a pleasant surprise for me to varying degrees this season, and that's a great sign

 

Biggest disappointment so far has to be Ferky (although I still believe he could turn it around) but also the greatly "misused and bullied" Loui the plug Eriksson. And I don't care that he's been playing decently on a line with Bo and Pearson for the last cup of coffee or so. You wanna talk about a player that isn't worth his price tag, Eriksson is a prime example. Still glad we never ended up with Lucic though lol

Edited January 3, 2020 by BrockBoester

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

Pos: relatively healthy heading into the 2nd half

 

Neg: it's the 50th, for &^@#'s sake.  Why haven't more members of the '94 and '82 teams (and '11, for that matter) been celebrated?  Linden and Bure are the two that stick out the most.  A lack of Naslund and Luongo (though the latter might be understandable, given the predicament we're in) also seems to be conspicuous.

[Tre Mac]

14 minutes ago, BrockBoester said:

I loves me a good survey!

You should maybe take notes on how to start a decent thread then.

[BrockBoester]

1 minute ago, Tre Mac said:

You should maybe take notes on how to start a decent thread then.

I've started many decent and even above-average threads that have generated good discussions. Thanks for your input

[Nuxfanabroad]

Almost hard for posters to be clear-headed right now..folks feelin' drunk on success!

 

I was quite optimistic this season, as it got underway. What I really love at this point, is it seems this team has over a dozen(diverse) ways they can beat you. May be inexperienced, but I think a lot of teams would be worried facing Van in a series.

 

Adaptability is important in spring. IF(big if) we get on a serious roll for a couple months, safely above PO bar, I'd like them to experiment(diff lines) somewhat. Then if injuries do hit late-season, the lineup might be more flexible & prepared.

 

I WANT that negative split, where we get to at least 97 points(over 48 pts, 2nd half). Don't wanna be greedy, but a div, top-3 would be golden.

[BrockBoester]

2 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Pos: relatively healthy heading into the 2nd half

 

Neg: it's the 50th, for &^@#'s sake.  Why haven't more members of the '94 and '82 teams (and '11, for that matter) been celebrated?  Linden and Bure are the two that stick out the most.  A lack of Naslund and Luongo (though the latter might be understandable, given the predicament we're in) also seems to be conspicuous.

The season's only halfway over - maybe there's more to come?

 

Would be nice to see Naz, Lou and Bure - Linden is probably unlikely - but this season the big celebration to come is for players that are due for their numbers to be raised - Henrik and Daniel Sedin.

[NUCKER67]

Quinn Hughes is a rookie, playing like an elite veteran. I thought he might be good, but I had no idea he'd be this good.

 

Miller was a good trade. They needed a player like him in the Top 6.

 

Ferland has been a disappointment, moreso than Eriksson IMO.

 

 

[theo5789]

I think JT did surpass some offensive expectations for me, but I'm not that surprised. Luckily I was one of the few posters that knew most of the attributes we were getting and also one of the few that had him pegged to be with the Petey line when most had Ferland on that line (which may have been okay if he was healthier). This was because we knew that he was decent on faceoffs to support Petey and he was strong defensively to allow the line to have more offensive freedom and could handle himself should things need to be handled physically.

 

So that's why I went with Quinn as my biggest positive surprise. I knew he would become our top offensive dman, but didn't expect it to be this soon. I thought he would need to be sheltered and get PP time, but looks like he's a regular top 4 guy already playing decent minutes and keeping up to boot. I don't he will be that traditional #1 simply because he won't be an all situations type dman, but his ability to move the puck has changed the dynamics of our back end.

 

My biggest disappointment is Ferland. I knew the risks, but thought he could string together more games. I'm not sure if he can play the way he used to and that's what makes him most effective. I think he still holds value because he still has skill and is a big body, but just won't have that same presence as a physical player. I hope he bounces back and can play the game he wants to as that only adds more of a boost to our already decent looking forward group as it is.

[6of1_halfdozenofother]

1 minute ago, BrockBoester said:

The season's only halfway over - maybe there's more to come?

 

I'm sure there will.  But given the state of health of the team for the most part right now, compared to years past - this is pretty damn good.

[BrockBoester]

2 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

I'm sure there will.  But given the state of health of the team for the most part right now, compared to years past - this is pretty damn good.

Oh sorry I should have clarified, I was referring to the Alumni appearances, not the injuries.

 

Definitely want the lower injury rate trend to continue

[kloubek]

I felt the Canucks were going to make the playoffs. 

 

But generally, when this team is on I believe it is a team that can hang with any other. I don't think we are far off from being a contender, and I don't think many experts (or even our own fans) expected that.

 

Marky has been excellent, and Miller has done far better than anyone expected. Jake has finally found his game it seems, and Hughes has been absolutely fantastic. (Though many of us knew he would be). I do, however, feel he is better defensively than I expected, and is better at avoiding crushing hits that I was previously worried about given his size. I think many of us are also surprised Tanev has remained relatively injury-free.

 

Negatives: Not many. I wish Sutter could remain healthy but that was always a question mark. I expected more from Ferland when he was playing, and how we have another concussion situation on our hands that I hope gets resolved. Myers to me has been a BIG disappointment; the guy has around the same points as Tanev but isn't nearly as good defensively and doesn't use his size nearly as much as he should. I also expected Horvat to be performing better than he has been, but he is still on pace for another career year so I probably shouldn't complain - especially given his usage in light of injury.

 

Going forward, we just need to be consistent and play the game we can. I still feed we will make the playoffs and think that we may surprise some teams with our overall abilities.

[Rabbit]

The biggest surprised me is currently we have 6 winning streak, might be 7,8 9 ….

We have not this long winning streak for years. During these games, everyone played hard, physical, trust each other.

 

Of course, the biggest disappointment is Ferland, hope he will turn around later.

[butters]

39 minutes ago, 6of1_halfdozenofother said:

Pos: relatively healthy heading into the 2nd half

 

Neg: it's the 50th, for &^@#'s sake.  Why haven't more members of the '94 and '82 teams (and '11, for that matter) been celebrated?  Linden and Bure are the two that stick out the most.  A lack of Naslund and Luongo (though the latter might be understandable, given the predicament we're in) also seems to be conspicuous.

they have been... about a bajillion times. Blood out of a stone at this point.

[Angry Goose]

Miller/Hughes have been phenomenal

 

I had no idea Ferland lost a step in his skating ability.  Could just be a Schaller type thing not realizing just how important sustained pace is in Greens 1 2 2 forecheck tho, and could easily bounce back.

[Toews]

Really good post but that is what I always expect when I see a post from the OP. 

[Nuxfanabroad]

On Ferland, I hope everyone maintains the long view. Don't rush him..if he gets in playing(well) late season, it's a bonus.

 

Otherwise we can LTIR for a longgg period. I've seen some major concussions(Eric Staal comes to mind) where you've gotta shelve a bloke for a lengthy period, but he eventually returns to form. It could also happen with MF.

 

With a roster that should stay close to cap-max(for a number of yrs), we can keep this ace sleeved on LTIR. Might be next season he suddenly pays off in spades? Forgettaboutit.