Canucks 2020-2021 Roster Issues

[aGENT]

16 minutes ago, Provost said:

The math is not as OK as some of you are claiming.  You say most of the teams are right to the cap next year, but at the same time say we can just trade away salary to those same teams for only a small sweetener.  Every team will be trying to dump salary to the 2-3 teams with space and the actual dollars to spend.  The “Ottawa will take Eriksson” chant has been on for a long time but we  haven’t done it and they will have a couple dozen suitors lining up to foist cap space onto them.

 

Assuming the cap rises by $2 million. That is $20 million to sign 10 players.

 

With status quo, we will push $3 million of ELC bonuses into next year.  That leaves $17 million to sign 10 players.

 

We have to keep $3 million in cap space next season because we know Petterson and Hughes will hit their bonuses again next year and definitely can’t afford to push those bonuses into the year that they come off their ELCs and get paid.  We won’t have enough cap coming off to pay those two guys and replace the vets on expiring contracts. That leaves $14 million to sign 10 players next season.  Signing Markstrom, Virtanen, Gaudette, and Tanev (or another top 4 D) takes all of that and we still have 6 roster spots to fill.

 

It doesn’t “all just work out”, it requires moves to be made... and those moves will cost us.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

My math's just fine. And I'm not particularly relying on us 'trading away salary'.

 

41 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Tanev may simply walk (assuming not traded because - playoffs...though I'd not personally be opposed, depending on the return). As will Leivo, Schaller and Fantenberg likely.

 

Next year Tryamkin ($2.5m +/-?) and Rafferty ($700K) replace Tanev ($4.45) and Stecher ($2.325). That's $3.75m savings right there. Motte will only see a moderate raise. Virtanen likely sees a bit of a bump. Gaudette likely gets a similar bridge to the one Virtanen's on now.

 

Marky's really the biggest conundrum as he's likely due at MINIMUM a $2m raise (and likely more). But Baer will only have one year left and will likely be easier to move this summer/next fall and at a slightly lower cost in futures, which hopefully clears a bit more space. Same goes for Sutter and Benn as possibilities. Even with just some of those moves, and a likely cap increase, should be enough to squeak everyone in and have a few guys on low dollar ELC/bridge deals filling in depth roles. 

 

It's a bit of a challenge but it's far from insurmountable...and doesn't require any 'miracles'.

 

Swapping Tanev/Stecher for Try/Rafferty should cover Marky's raise +/-. Dropping Schaller for an ELC should cover Virtanen's +/-. Leivo for an ELC covers Gaudette's +/-. A cap increase should cover Motte + give us some breathing room.

 

If we're also able to move a Baer or Sutter (or Gordie willing Eriksson moves/retires) etc, it's just gravy and some added elbow room.

 

Stop worrying. They've got this. It's not that bad.

 

[Tracksuit]

Unpopular opinion but moving tanev makes sense.

especially if tryamkin comes back.

we have a solid amount of young CHEAP dmen that are ready or very close.at some point the not so young “prospects” need to be moved in. And Stecher is one of the most underrated dmen on the team. 

 

Only way LE leaves is via buy out

sutter won’t be a easy deal either since he’s unhealthy more than he’s heathy.

bears a buy out too.not sure there’s much cap savings with those three gone.

 

preparing for the following summer should be a big part of what happens as well since  Petterson Hughes won’t be cheap. 

 

Expansion is another wrench thrown into the mix too. 

 

 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, aGENT said:

My math's just fine. And I'm not particularly relying on us 'trading away salary'.

 

 

I haven't seen you account for the $3 million we are above the cap this year in ELC bonuses that will be pushed into next year your calculations, or the $3 million next year we need to save under the cap for ELC bonuses ... $6 million forgotten is definitely math that is "off".

You also keep shrugging and saying that we can just easily make Sutter, Baertschi, and Benn disappear as part of your plan... which is actually what the thread is about, except there is no reason to believe it will happen magically or easily like you suggest.

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

I haven't seen you account for the $3 million we are above the cap this year in ELC bonuses that will be pushed into next year your calculations, or the $3 million next year we need to save under the cap for ELC bonuses ... $6 million forgotten is definitely math that is "off".

You also keep shrugging and saying that we can just easily make Sutter, Baertschi, and Benn disappear as part of your plan... which is actually what the thread is about, except there is no reason to believe it will happen magically or easily like you suggest.

No, I said they'd be 'gravy'.

 

Fair enough on the bonuses but I was also pretty conservative on my estimates including the cap increase. There's not such a big difference, if any at all, that we can't make it up. A lot's going to change over the summer. But yes, it will require a touch of work and effort.

 

But by all means, carry on panicking 

[Provost]

14 minutes ago, Tracksuit said:

Unpopular opinion but moving tanev makes sense.

especially if tryamkin comes back.

we have a solid amount of young CHEAP dmen that are ready or very close.at some point the not so young “prospects” need to be moved in. And Stecher is one of the most underrated dmen on the team. 

 

Only way LE leaves is via buy out

sutter won’t be a easy deal either since he’s unhealthy more than he’s heathy.

bears a buy out too.not sure there’s much cap savings with those three gone.

 

preparing for the following summer should be a big part of what happens as well since  Petterson Hughes won’t be cheap. 

 

Expansion is another wrench thrown into the mix too. 

 

 

Tanev may be an odd man out and maybe that is the right move.. but that is a pretty big hit to the team's D.  Even very recent history has shown pretty solidly that when Tanev or Edler are out of the lineup we become a below average team.  I am a huge fan of Tryamkin, but don't expect him to be a top 4 D jumping into the league.

We just have to consider the loss of the players into any calculations for trying to move salary out.  So, say we moved Eriksson but it cost us Madden.  In reality we would effectively be getting Tanev back in that trade too.  It is the opportunity cost of not having the cap space.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Provost

[Devron]

I just had a couple questions... why does everyone assume Tryamkin is coming back and 2 is he really as good as you guys think he is??

[JeremyCuddles]

Looking at Capfriendly we have 18mil this summer. If we make no trades.

 

Virtanen - 3.5mil

Gaudette - 2mil x 2

Stecher - 2.5mil x 1 (I am pretty sure he is arbitration eligible)

Markstrom - 6mil x 6

Fantenberg - 900k

Total: 14.9mil out of 18mil.

 

Tanev we should walk away from. Virtanen I can see getting a one year prove you're top 6 deal. Gaudette is getting a bridge deal for no more than 2mil, personally I think they give him the Virtanen contract (the one Jake is currently on). 2 years 1.25mil per. Went with a high ball though. No way he makes more than 2. Stecher goes to arbitration and they give him 2.5-3mil per. He is on pace for like 14 points and doesn't play a heck of a lot so I doubt he breaks bank even via arbitration. Fantenberg comes back at 850-900k or is let go and we run Breezer Juolevi and/or Sautner.

 

Marky is the real wild card. He is hard carrying this team so far. Yes Miller and Petey have lots of points but Marky has stolen us more than a few games. Hellebuyck money is where I see Marky ending up, which is roughly 6.2mil per. 

 

All things considered Sutter at 30-50% retained and letting Tanev walk could free us the cap needed to retain those that matter and ice roughly the same team next season. Let Leivo walk and throw our boy Hoglander in there  More money saved.

[-AJ-]

I was looking at this about a week ago and noticed the same problem. Virtanen and Gaudette's big improvements are the main "problems". Don't get me wrong, it's a great problem to have, but I do think @Provost is on to something. Losing Tanev and replacing him with either Tryamkin (who I think is far less of a certain thing than some do) or Rafferty is a monstrous loss. Those two kids aren't in the same universe as Tanev right now. That said, it's plausible that Rafferty could replace Stecher, and I think he probably will, due to the aforementioned cap concerns. I think Tryamkin may not work out in the NHL, as I'm not sure his desire to make it work is strong enough.

[theo5789]

I have calculated 66.5 million committed to next year, which includes Ferland and Sutter on the roster, Baertschi buried, Spooner buyout, Luongo recapture and 3 million in potential bonus overages. That's 10 forwards, 4 dmen and 1 goalie. Let's be conservative with the cap increase and say it goes up to 83.5 (+2 million). So we have 17 million in cap space.

 

Sign Marky for 6, Virtanen 3.5, Gaudette 1.75 (bridge), Motte 1.5, Tryamkin 2.5, call up Rafferty 700k, sign Fantenberg level player for 850k = 16.8 million and a full roster.

 

If Sutter or Ferland (or anyone else) go on LTIR to start the year, then that frees up more space. If we make any trades of the unwanted assets (we could buyout Sven and that would save us I believe 800k or so for next year if we need a bit more wiggle room). The cap may go up even more which has us laughing, or it doesn't go up as much and that's where the buyout comes in for Sven if we can't trade him. We could bury a contract like LE for another million in savings if there is a stand out prospect like Hoglander or Lind that earn a spot.

 

Very similar roster to this year and while it can be deemed as Tanev and Stecher to Tryamkin and Rafferty as a "downgrade", have to take into account that the young guys are getting another year more of experience and may become better players as well. Tryamkin is a wildcard in all of this for sure, so it's a wait and see if he returns and how he fares. Then make adjustments accordingly.

[Provost]

1 minute ago, -AJ- said:

I was looking at this about a week ago and noticed the same problem. Virtanen and Gaudette's big improvements are the main "problems". Don't get me wrong, it's a great problem to have, but I do think @Provost is on to something. Losing Tanev and replacing him with either Tryamkin (who I think is far less of a certain thing than some do) or Rafferty is a monstrous loss. Those two kids aren't in the same universe as Tanev right now. That said, it's plausible that Rafferty could replace Stecher, and I think he probably will, due to the aforementioned cap concerns. I think Tryamkin may not work out in the NHL, as I'm not sure his desire to make it work is strong enough.

It didn't hit me fully until I was playing armchair GM for next year and got a reasonable looking roster under the cap... then realized the bit about the ELC bonus issue for the next couple seasons and it looked a lot more bleak.

It isn't "the sky is falling", but I do think it is worth thinking about as soon as right now and the looming trade deadline.  I put Madden and one of Demko/Dipietro in the category of luxuries to have in the organization that are a real strength.  Markstrom has made a reluctant believer of me and won me over... maybe he is our guy for the next 4-5 years at least.  Petterson, Horvat, and Gaudette are pretty solid in my mind for the next number of years.  so if it costs us a good prospect to gain a crapload of cap space in a year that teams won't have much... then that is a calculation to consider for me.    If you could exit some/all of Sutter, Baertschi, and Eriksson between now and July 1st... we are golden for cap space for the foreseeable future and can even look to add a piece.

I think IF Tryamkin comes (which I would love to see), then it has to be on a 3rd pairing, and maybe that is even less likely now that we are farther on and Rafferty may be an option for cheaper.  Juolevi maybe being in the mix or trade bait as well gives some depth, but you can only have so many young guys on the back end without it imploding.
 

[-AJ-]

2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Hoglander - Horvat - Pearson

Ferland - Gaudette - Virtanen

Roussel - Beagle - Motte

Schaller

 

Edler - Myers

Hughes - Tanev

Tryamkin - Rafferty

Benn

Fantenberg

Juolevi

 

Bye - Eriksson, Sutter, Stecher, Baertschi, Leivo

That looks great on paper, but how are you gonna get rid of the three guys there with negative value? I notice you haven't removed any of our roster players to do so. The contracts can't just be "wished" away.

[Provost]

Just now, -AJ- said:

That looks like on paper, but how are you gonna get rid of the three guys there with negative value? I notice you haven't removed any of our roster players to do so. The contracts can't just be "wished" away.

Yep, that is a pretty ideal roster if Benning can work magic.  Is it worth losing Madden, Lind, Juolevi, and a couple of 2nd/3rd round picks to do it all though?  Probably not... but at least one of those moves pretty much has to be made.  Or something crazy like deciding Virtanen isn't really the player he has been in the last month and trading him while he is at a high... and making someone eat a lot of dead space to do it.  Benning and Green know him better than we do and whether they think he is a guy to commit to or not, because his arbitration number could be ugly.

Boy wouldn't the boards go nuts if we traded Virtanen and Eriksson at the deadline for a 2nd and a prospect.

[theo5789]

20 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

I just had a couple questions... why does everyone assume Tryamkin is coming back and 2 is he really as good as you guys think he is??

There have been indicators like his agent saying it wouldn't take long to get a deal done and how he keeps tabs with the Canucks. Nothing is certain, but Benning seems to be pushing for it, so we are certainly interested on our end.

 

As for him being good, he's playing top minutes now, so his conditioning is likely a non factor from before. He's adjusted his game to play a more defensive minded game which conveniently would take over for Tanev's role. He's big, fast and durable thus far. No reason to think he couldn't handle a top 4 spot here. Tanev plays the least of the top 4 minutes available and most is on the PK. I think Tryamkin actually might add more value 5v5. The worst case IMO is he's like Zadorov, who currently plays just shy of 19 mins a night.

[Pears]

Honestly even if the cap goes up a modest $3 million we’ll be ok since that will bump us up to $21 million

 

Markstrom - $5.5M

Tanev - $4M

Virtanen - $3M

Stecher - $2.5M

Gaudette - $2.5M

Motte - $1M

 

Leaves us with $2.5M left to spare

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, Pears said:

Honestly even if the cap goes up a modest $3 million we’ll be ok since that will bump us up to $21 million

 

Markstrom - $5.5M

Tanev - $4M

Virtanen - $3M

Stecher - $2.5M

Gaudette - $2.5M

Motte - $1M

 

Leaves us with $2.5M left to spare

As per the thread... take away the $3 million in pushed ELC bonuses into next year and the $3 million cushion for them next year so it doesn’t push into the Petterson and shifted contract year... and you are at negative $3.5 million with your values.

 

Also, if Virtanen chooses arbitration and keeps up his current pace, you have to seriously worry about an award that starts at $4 million plus.

[Jester13]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

jake and AG will get a modest raise in a 1-2 year bridge deal to show that this season wasn't a one off.  Try, I'm not convinced he's coming back.  I think both BR and OJ are on the roster next season and stetcher is gone.  Pretty sure JB & Co have it all worked out and we should know, by now, to trust them.

I can't believe anyone would ever say this! What has JB & Co done to warrant such a comment?!

[nuck-lifer]

Well, Toronto signed Marner and kept their main core which most folks felt wasn't possible after the cap was rolled back to 81.5 M, so not too concerned with Canucks situation over the next 2 critical years. It's amazing how these teams are playing right up to the cap day in and day out.

Will probably lose Leivo, Stecher, Fantenberg for Tram and Rafferty and maybe Hoglander or Kole Lind at forward. Hoglander looks like one of the steals in the 2019 draft at this point. Unreal that we snagged him!

Worst case scenario on Baer and Sutter is they both hit the AHL,

A 3.3 cap hit for Sutter in the AHL is a possibility but see LTIR or a trade more realistic for him.

with the roll back on the cap this year, we should see an increase of 2-3 Mil or maybe more this year so don't see a real set back in talent but also no FA signings unless Ferland is going on LTIR for 2020- 2021.

 

The following year will probably see Edler, Pearson, Sutter, Benn gone to sign Pettersson and Hughes. Again we will have Pods, Hoglander, Lind, MacEwen, juolevi and other ELC's in the lineup.

if it wasn't for 18-22 YO on ELC's to sign we would be screwed, but JB has drafted well so I think we can sleep well with JB saying " hey... I got this, trust me"

 

A good capologist is worth their weight in gold these days...

 

 

[Ossi Vaananen]

Haha, I created a proposal around Hogland + our dead cap to make things work going forward. I'm glad you're highlights this issue as well OP. We'll be losing guys just to keep our core and hope that ELCs can fill some roles. Even then, there's risk of guys performing on ELCs and hitting their bonuses. 

 

I see many people assuming a cap increase, well ticket sales are down across the board and they'll be dipping into escrow to keep the cap flat at best. 

 

I'm happy people are seeing Sutter for the cap dump he is. He has long lost me as a fan. 

 

Anyways, back to next season. I see us walking from Tanev (injury history) and Stecher. I could see Leivo coming back for the same contract, if only due to this knee injury hampering his stats/appeal. Markstrom 5-6m (hopefully) with term, Gaudette 'show me' 2-3m 2 years, Virtanen 3m 3 years, Leivo 1.5m (as mentioned). 11.5-13.5m for those guys, puts us to a 17 man roster, needing 2 defenseman and extras. Hopefully Rafferty and Juolevi can make the jump - 2m between em. 

 

Anyone that doesn't see next season and the one after as having cap problems needs to spend some time on 'armchair gm': https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm

 

We'll be getting worse on paper, no matter how you slice it. We have to deal our dead cap, even if that means adding an attractive piece. 

[GhostsOf1994]

Somefing liek dis prease

 

 

[Ossi Vaananen]

10 minutes ago, GhostsOf1994 said:

Somefing liek dis prease

 

 

Lol you're funny. Eriksson/Sutter/Baertschi just deleted, not even a buyout cap hit.