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[Discussion] Will the Next one be the Worst Recession in History?


Warhippy

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18 minutes ago, CBH1926 said:

KY jelly time again!

30 ban on US to European travel, including a 45 day ban on offloading shipments from European sources.  Same ban on China and anything from Chinese or Korean ports/Flights.  Multiple US cities outright banning gatherings larger than 250.  NBA suspending season.  US president signalling he's ready to cut payroll tax.

 

Oh it's getting bad now

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12 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Sounds like Canada will be in recession by the summer. Nice timing massive debt, massive deficit and interest rates near 0 already. Haha well played JT. Guess things don't balance themselves. 

Ya...blame JT for the debt bubble that's been growing since 2008.

 

Honestly, man you gotta stop blaming JT for literally everything.  Last week saw almost $4 TRILLION wiped out from the global markets.  Canada could have almost zero debt issues in the business sector or through personal citizens and this coming storm would still bury it.

 

There's nothing ANYONE in government under ANY banner could do to prevent or survive this.  Much like 2008, the Canadian government will spend its way free, just like the US government, Chinese, Italian, German, British etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc because there's no other recourse or avenue for them

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18 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Ya...blame JT for the debt bubble that's been growing since 2008.

 

Honestly, man you gotta stop blaming JT for literally everything.  Last week saw almost $4 TRILLION wiped out from the global markets.  Canada could have almost zero debt issues in the business sector or through personal citizens and this coming storm would still bury it.

 

There's nothing ANYONE in government under ANY banner could do to prevent or survive this.  Much like 2008, the Canadian government will spend its way free, just like the US government, Chinese, Italian, German, British etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc because there's no other recourse or avenue for them

Would be nice if we weren't running a 30 billion dollar deficit into this. By the way you absolutely did criticize the cpc in the great recession. Anyway when times are apparently good you don't spend like a drunken sailor. Canada is on the verge of another debt crisis, the guy who started the last one had the same last name.

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48 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Would be nice if we weren't running a 30 billion dollar deficit into this. By the way you absolutely did criticize the cpc in the great recession. Anyway when times are apparently good you don't spend like a drunken sailor. Canada is on the verge of another debt crisis, the guy who started the last one had the same last name.

Yup.  I did criticize them.  For the same reason I'll criticize JT for doing the same thing.

 

It NEEDS to fail.  It's the only way it will get better.

 

But in this instance, it's not his fault

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Been saying like a broken record the Fed will come to the rescue.Here you go. The Fed arrives with a fu**ing bazooka............

 

New York Fed to conduct purchases across a range of maturities

Thu 12 Mar 2020 16:55:57 GMT

 

Fed launches fresh repos

The New York Fed will conduct a $500B 3-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET, among others. They will also expand Treasury purchases beyond bills -- that's fresh QE.
 
That's a big number. It's good the Fed is on the ball but it also suggests there are major liquidity strains.

Someone on CNBC noted that municipal bonds are being sold. That isn't mom & pop investors adjusting their portfolios: It's someone who needs liquidity.
 
more in the link
 
*************
 
The Fed will not risk a 2008 style credit crunch.
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10 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Been saying like a broken record the Fed will come to the rescue.Here you go. The Fed arrives with a fu**ing bazooka............

 

New York Fed to conduct purchases across a range of maturities

Thu 12 Mar 2020 16:55:57 GMT

 

Fed launches fresh repos

The New York Fed will conduct a $500B 3-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET, among others. They will also expand Treasury purchases beyond bills -- that's fresh QE.
 
That's a big number. It's good the Fed is on the ball but it also suggests there are major liquidity strains.

Someone on CNBC noted that municipal bonds are being sold. That isn't mom & pop investors adjusting their portfolios: It's someone who needs liquidity.
 
more in the link
 
*************
 
The Fed will not risk a 2008 style credit crunch.

 

 

 

giphy-4.gif

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The coming wave of unemployment claims is going to be unprecedented

Fri 13 Mar 2020 17:17:31 GMT

 

The system is going to be overwhelmed

Around the world governments are going to be tested on unemployment benefit claims like never before.
 
Schools, daycares and businesses are shutting down at speeds never-before seen. In something like the financial crisis it was sudden, but not like this. 12 million Americans work in the food-service industry with an average salary of $21,800. Those people aren't going to survive without two months of paychecks. They will need that money fast. That industry isn't shutting down now but it hit a sudden stop in much of Europe so it's very possible that it's coming.
 
If the government can't get virus tests, how do you think it's going to handle a US initial jobless claims jumping from 200K to 2 million?
 
Italy is up first.
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9 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

The coming wave of unemployment claims is going to be unprecedented

Fri 13 Mar 2020 17:17:31 GMT

 

The system is going to be overwhelmed

Around the world governments are going to be tested on unemployment benefit claims like never before.
 
Schools, daycares and businesses are shutting down at speeds never-before seen. In something like the financial crisis it was sudden, but not like this. 12 million Americans work in the food-service industry with an average salary of $21,800. Those people aren't going to survive without two months of paychecks. They will need that money fast. That industry isn't shutting down now but it hit a sudden stop in much of Europe so it's very possible that it's coming.
 
If the government can't get virus tests, how do you think it's going to handle a US initial jobless claims jumping from 200K to 2 million?
 
Italy is up first.

Add to that the downward trend on productivity

 

I'm not exactly getting much done  :ph34r:

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BOC cuts rates by 50 basis points in surprise move

Fri 13 Mar 2020 18:08:31 GMT

 

Second cut this month

BOC cuts rates to 0.75% from 1.25% and the statement says they stand ready to adjust further if required. They also note other liquidity measures.
 
Full statement:
 

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 percent and the deposit rate is ½ percent. This unscheduled rate decision is a proactive measure taken in light of the negative shocks to Canada's economy arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent sharp drop in oil prices.

It is clear that the spread of the coronavirus is having serious consequences for Canadian families, and for Canada's economy. In addition, lower prices for oil, even since our last scheduled rate decision on March 4, will weigh heavily on the economy, particularly in energy intensive regions.

 

The Bank will provide a full update of its outlook for the Canadian and global economies on April 15. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.

 

The Bank has also taken steps to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity. These additional measures have been announced in separate notices on the Bank's website. The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.

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4 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

Full 1% in about 10 days. Yay for my mortgage

I still need to buy a house at some point here... :ph34r: 

 

Yay for low rates and all but I have no idea what's going to develop in the next 3-6 months in terms of housing prices, the economy, jobs etc. The uncertainty and lack of a house is a bit unnerving :unsure:

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Just now, aGENT said:

I still need to buy a house at some point here... :ph34r: 

 

Yay for low rates and all but I have no idea what's going to develop in the next 3-6 months in terms of housing prices, the economy, jobs etc. The uncertainty and lack of a house is a bit unnerving :unsure:

yeah

I won't discuss what is happening to my property value  :( 
Not that it really matters though. No reason to sell.

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Just now, Shift-4 said:

yeah

I won't discuss what is happening to my property value  :( 
Not that it really matters though. No reason to sell.

That certainly might help us... we've just got a load of money sitting in the bank at the moment and we might be able to get a house for a lot less in a month or two. Now whether I have a job to pay the mortgage on it is another question entirely...

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6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I still need to buy a house at some point here... :ph34r: 

 

Yay for low rates and all but I have no idea what's going to develop in the next 3-6 months in terms of housing prices, the economy, jobs etc. The uncertainty and lack of a house is a bit unnerving :unsure:

Spoke to someone about this.

 

Many people evidently post 2008 purchased housing as a safe haven from volatile markets.  They've done quite well.  Many moved some of that money back in to the markets. After this last 10 days there is speculation that so many will have lost $$$ in the markets that they will look to recoup by selling those properties.  There could be a potential run on home sales over the next 6 weeks or so.

 

The issue is that with the Covid scare, many properties will be listed but sit without being shown.  This will drive up inventory and as people see more homes being placed on the market more will try selling to secure their investment $ which will only start a run on home sales the same way today saw a run on panic shopping

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3 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Spoke to someone about this.

 

Many people evidently post 2008 purchased housing as a safe haven from volatile markets.  They've done quite well.  Many moved some of that money back in to the markets. After this last 10 days there is speculation that so many will have lost $$$ in the markets that they will look to recoup by selling those properties.  There could be a potential run on home sales over the next 6 weeks or so.

 

The issue is that with the Covid scare, many properties will be listed but sit without being shown.  This will drive up inventory and as people see more homes being placed on the market more will try selling to secure their investment $ which will only start a run on home sales the same way today saw a run on panic shopping

Yeah, like I said...likely helps us on the house price. Not sure how I feel about the economy overall or job prospects (and paying the mortgage) once all that happens though...

 

At least the interest on said mortgage will be low :wacko:

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5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yeah, like I said...likely helps us on the house price. Not sure how I feel about the economy overall or job prospects (and paying the mortgage) once all that happens though...

 

At least the interest on said mortgage will be low :wacko:

My wife and I have a potential downpayment of up to $210,000 right now.  IF this run happens we could see a 30% reduction.  Todays rate cut makes up for the almost $13,000 I have earmarked for investments that I spoke of the other day and then some.

 

We're looking at a potential sell off should this perish which it appears to have the potential for.  The one thing people aren't accounting for is that supply chains will start failing with Korea and China and now India out of the mix.  The US is set to close their borders period.  Canada is potentially ready to shut down everything non essential.

 

Ya man, the economy is about to take a proverbial kick in the knackers.  But.....brightsides

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1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

My wife and I have a potential downpayment of up to $210,000 right now.  IF this run happens we could see a 30% reduction.  Todays rate cut makes up for the almost $13,000 I have earmarked for investments that I spoke of the other day and then some.

 

We're looking at a potential sell off should this perish which it appears to have the potential for.  The one thing people aren't accounting for is that supply chains will start failing with Korea and China and now India out of the mix.  The US is set to close their borders period.  Canada is potentially ready to shut down everything non essential.

 

Ya man, the economy is about to take a proverbial kick in the knackers.  But.....brightsides

 

China says work resumption rates vary from 60% to over 95% (ex Hubei)

Fri 13 Mar 2020 02:59:28 GMT

 

China vice industry minister 

  • says work resumption rate for small and medium-sized firms outside of Hubei is around 60%
  • for larger-scale firms outside of Hubei is over 95%

Says will coordinate with other countries' govts to push forward business resumption, reduce the impact of coronavirus pandemic as much as possible

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