Expansion Draft Angst - Why?

[aGENT]

Just now, Rob_Zepp said:

Stecher is my prediction.   I also think a depth forward will be lost through the "process" of moves.  Leivo perhaps.    

As much as I love Tony Stretcher, I'd be pretty surprised if he's still here next year, let alone for the ED.

 

He's due a raise and we need cap space next year = bad mix for our third pair RD. We also have a plethora of near ready options to replace his spot (Rafferty, Juolevi, Brisebois...not to mention Tryamkin likely returning).

[theo5789]

7 minutes ago, Cup2022 said:

Thought that 9 game losing skids was in second half could be wrong though

Looking back, we had an 8 game skid in November (Marky played in 6 of those), so 1st half.

[Noble 6]

10 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yeah I see more discussion than 'angst'. Chances are (assuming both are still here at the ED), whichever goalie we expose, will be on the short list of who to target from Vancouver. 

 

Unlike Rob, I'm doubtful Stecher's even here next year, let alone for the ED. I could however potentially see us expose Myers depending on how our D prospects develop, trades etc happen over the next couple years. If we've got solid young D he might not be as 'needed' at that point and clearing his salary but be as much of a gain as losing him from our D depth. And he'd be a decent 'get' for SEA.

 

There were rumours at the start of the year that management would look to move Stetcher this summer. We can't afford to pay him anything really and he can be internally replaced. I would hate to lose him, but it's the position we've put ourselves in. 

 

I'd love to pay Seattle to take Myers. It really is his contract that's caused our cap complications. 

[theo5789]

3 minutes ago, Cup2022 said:

EP had a rookie season that was compared to some of the greats of the game Marky had a avarage season for a starting goaltender in the league compared to any season

And he did it mostly in the 1st half where he was getting all the rookie of the month accolades. He cooled off in the final few months. Not to take anything away from his rookie season and he was certainly a big part in why we had some success last season, but Marky found a new level to his game in the 2nd half and we were in it on most nights because of him. People simply remember what had happened at the 2nd half of the year more when the voting happens. Both were important players to our team and I believe EP won the most exciting player. Minor accolades, but Marky was just as deserving of MVP as EP, so I'm fine either way.

[butters]

27 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

DiPietro is not the goalie of the future. 

Nope, cuz Kevin Weekes already is

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

There were rumours at the start of the year that management would look to move Stetcher this summer. We can't afford to pay him anything really and he can be internally replaced. I would hate to lose him, but it's the position we've put ourselves in. 

 

I'd love to pay Seattle to take Myers. It really is his contract that's caused our cap complications. 

Meh, symptom of an improving team. We can no longer afford to pay our 3rd pair RD $3m+. Good thing we've drafted and developed some solid, inexpensive options to play there.

 

I have zero problem with the Myers signing. He's the biggest reason Tanev's been healthy, Edler's played less hard minutes and Hughes has had Tanev to play with. Without him, our D and Hughes rookie season are not what they are.

[c00kies]

Would it really be that bad to lose a goalie? We have to make a decision to go with one of the two guys eventually, so this could solve this while preventing a skater from being chosen in the ED. Also, it's not as simple as picking the 3 best goalies (you have to consider the cap and age spread), but also compare to what teams have exposed. For example, you can have a solid goalie exposed, but also have a really good d-man, so Seattle might take the d-man even if the goalie would have been a potential starter. Similarly, a team might not have good skaters exposed, so you take the goalie so you can save your skater pick for another team.

[ruilin96]

Off topic: but bull$&!# that Vegas isn’t part of this.

[Nucker 67]

There will be a lot of goalies going into pasture or retiring over the next few years - Miller, Halak, Lundqvist, Anderson, Fluery, Crawfiord, Howard, Smith, Hutton, Elliot, Quick, Dubnyk and Rinne.

 

So, who is Demko's competition to go to SEA? My guess:

 

A. Raanta (ARI)

C. Talbot (CGY)

B. Bishop (DAL)

A. Khudobin (DAL)

S. Bobrovsky (FLA)

L. Domingue (NJ)

C. Schneider (NJ)

T. Greiss (NYI)

A. Nilsson (OTT)

M. Jones (SJ)

J. Allen (STL)

M. Hutchinson (TOR)

T. Demko (VAN)

L. Brossoit (WPG)

B. Holtby (WAS)

 

SEA with a Holtby/Demko tandem could be scary.

 

 

[oldnews]

19 minutes ago, VegasCanuck said:

I had actually considered started a similar thread as you see in a lot of posts, people want Benning to make decisions now, based on what "could" happen in the expansion draft in summer of 2021.

 

When the expansion draft comes up. We will lose someone, but not too worried about that now. With the depth that we now have as an organization, we can always make a deal with Seattle, to flip them a 2nd rounder or something, in exchange for taking the player that we want them to take. We know that Benning is good at finding other solid prospects in later rounds, losing a 2nd round pick would be a good option to control who gets chosen.

 

For now, let's just enjoy the team that we have, and trust Benning to make it work in future, that we don't lose anyone that we need around for the long term.

As much as I hate the expansion dynamic, the 'problems' people anticipate are good problems to have.

For example, if they manage to re-sign Markstrom and have to expose a very good goaltender, that creates less relative exposure of losing a forward or defenseman.

If they lose a decent forward of defenseman instead, their depth buffered them from losing a goaltender.

And additionally, they have a pretty damn good goaltending prospect in Utica - or to offer as an althernative to Seattle.if they must have one of ours.

In the end it doesn't necessarily 'help' to waste undue effort seeking to limit expansion exposure for teams - and likewise as fans - the undue premature anxiety also isn't necessarily worth it.

And the last expansion draft - the team wound up losing a player - Sbisa - that many people around here considered unmoveable lol = so you can't win them all / one of the consequences of being a better, deeper team is going to be some asset losses - via expansion, or not being able to afford to sign everyone they may otherwise want (reality in the cap era).  A relative continuum of prospects/drafting and developing - is the antidote.

[NexusRift]

Most of the angst seems centred around our goalies. I'm not worried . We still gotta sign Marky and he deserves a big raise. If Seattle snags him, then they sacrifice players in other positions for a great, re pricey, goalie. We lose Thatch? Then we get a capable, affordable backup while developing Dipietro. Besides, why would Seattle pick on lil' ol' Canuckville for a goalie. There's other great options out there.

[Nucker 67]

Are some really convinced that DiPietro will be an NHL goalie? That's a lot of faith for a small goalie like him. He's done well in juniors and did okay in the international tournaments, and Utica, but the NHL is very different. We caught a glimpse of his challenges in that one game he played. I would rather lose Pearson than Demko. I can't but think of PIT during the expansion draft, and exposing Fluery. Well, Fluery took the Knights to the SCF in their first year and has kept them near the top since. Good goalies make the difference. If SEA ends up with Demko, the Canucks are screwed.

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by NUCKER67

[Tystick]

53 minutes ago, Cup2022 said:

Not to worried about who we lose trust in Benning and two more years of his drafting

Guaranteed that Benning has already accounted for the expansion.

It really does feel like we're in a great position.

[JeremyCuddles]

Don’t really see any angst over the draft. But I mean, we do have two really good goalies, both are pretty young. Or at least Demko is. Marky is pushing 30 by expansion draft. Thing is we only need one starter anyway. Our goalie depth allows us to lose one and be okay going forward. And also means we don’t lose a forward or d-man. If they take a forward or d-man we have a really good goalie to trade to replace that hole. We’re fine any way you slice it. 

[Wanless]

I think our problem is that the best player that is exposed will be a goalie, not that we have the best goalie exposed 

 

Therein lies the issue, we don't know how Demko will handle being a starter. To find out he will need to play 4-5 consecutive games multiple times.

 

I would however try to get them to take Tanev or Beagle with incentive

[JM_]

I think we're going to get a little cap help via expansion vs hurting from losing a player. 

 

I'd love to see Marky and Demko be the duo going forward, but I also want to recover a 1st round pick and maybe Demko + another prospect will net us that, so if it goes that way then Seattle having to pick from guys like Myers, Roussel, Beagle or even Tanev if he's extended isn't a bad thing. 

[smithers joe]

i know JB will resign some players, but as of right now, the only players that fill the rules are horvat, miller, ferland, myers and demko/markstrom. markstrom will not sign here unless he is guaranteed not to be exposed in the draft. 

[JM_]

The other wrinkle in this is Seattle probably won't be getting the high picks that Vegas got, a lot of GMs have learned their lessons (well, I'm assuming). If thats how it goes Jim might be able to coax Seattle to pick a player we want to move for the cost of a 2nd or 3rd round pick, or a prospect to move things in a favourable direction. 

 

We'll lose more than Sbisa this time, but maybe we're due for a little more pain, I mean that was really unfair to Vegas 

 

(sorry Luca)

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Jimmy McGill

[Bure_Pavel]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

Yeah, when you think about all of the goalies in the league (at least 62), and with 31 of them being protected, that leaves around 30-40 goalies that will be available. Is Demko in the Top 3 of that list? I'm not sure about that. Maybe? I sure hope not anyway, DiPietro is not the goalie of the future. Maybe Silovs can fast-track.

Jacob markstrom is top 10 in save percentage for goalies under 30 years old, and Demko is one of 7 goalies who are under 25 years old to play more than 10 games this year. These 7 goalies will all be protected except for maybe Georgiyev (who is on the trade block) and Saros (who I think will be protected). 

[Bure_Pavel]

2 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

An undertone in many threads right now is concern about "Marky versus Demko" and similar player discussions with often cited "we will lose xxxxx to Seattle".    I don't think many fully understand how the process works.   Seattle will select one player from each of the other teams in the league (excluding Vegas) for a grand total of 30. Specifically, those 30 players must include at least 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goalies.    The rules for the teams is a bit more complex:

 

• Current NHL teams can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie, under the following conditions.
  • All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits.
  • All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.
• In addition, all NHL teams must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the draft:
  • One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.
  • Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.
  • One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team's protected list.
  • Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a team's player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection.

 

So, what does this mean for the Canucks?   They can only lose one player directly to the draft BUT will likely lose two through the "process" so to speak (trades, waivers etc.).   However, why are people so convinced they will lose one of Marky and/or Demko?    Seattle cannot ice 30 goalies - they are limited to three.   While, as I pointed out in another thread, both are really good goalies neither is "great" and even with Demko have that potential, there are other young goalies that are in similar situations with similar potential.   I think odds of losing one of these goalies is, at best, in the unlikely (waaaay less than 50%) range.   Teams like the Rangers are in way more of a goalie pickle IMHO.    Next to position players, they are going to close someone and likely a younger Dman (I think Stecher) and through the process a decent depth forward (I have a feeling Leivo for some reason).    Those will sting but not be fatal.

 

EVERY team will have some "sting" but I see no reason why Vancouver will be in any grave danger.   I think the angst is far over stated by many and the Canucks are in much better shape for this draft than many teams around the league and most certainly better off than other Pacific Division teams (except Anaheim and Vegas...the latter due to exemption the former due to nature of roster and contracts) as those teams have their younger elite talent needing some of it exposed.   

 

Short story to the above - be more worried about something worth worrying about (like running out of beer before Jake is done scoring this season).   At best, the Seattle draft will be a bee string to this team given the depth it finally has.

You never stated which goalies you think get picked up instead of Markstrom or Demko? I believe the concern is real, both are really good goalies in the Leauge for next 5 years at least. I would be pretty upset if we lost Demko for nothing.