Cap Hell for Canucks!!! (GREAT NEWS from Daly re: CAP for next year!!)

[Arrow 1983]

3 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Next year will be very rough cap wise. Likely lose Tanev or Stetcher, Petey and Hughes bonuses from this year carry over (max bonuses), and will be hard to move Baertchi's contract and not retain. Lots of dead money. Hopefully Eriksson is moved or retires!

 

2022-2023 Canucks will be free from all dead cap weight and can hopefully make a great cup run. (last year of Bo's and Miller's contracts)

Read this for explanation on bonus overages 

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/10/7/16438232/toronto-maple-leafs-have-made-roster-decisions-because-of-ltir-and-bonus-rules-salary-cap

[gameburn]

3 hours ago, theo5789 said:

Did you take into account the bonus overages? I'm not sure Baertschi's cap simply disappears, we may have to retain or buy him out or pay an asset to move him.

 

I'm not that worried about the cap either, but can't ignore those things.

And it is something we fans can get pretty good at figuring out, unlike assessing talent in some cases. 

 

3 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

Add in 3.7 million in performance bonuses and dont remove Baertchi's and its not all roses as that pciture paints. 

It's not a huge issue but I'm not sure Jake can be expected to accept only a million more than Gaudette.  Jake has become a top 6 forward with real potential to dominate in the playoffs. 

[gameburn]

3 hours ago, Where's Wellwood said:

I'd rather keep Leivo and let go of Motte.

 

Any chance Baer and the Canucks agree to mutually terminate the contract so Baer can sign elsewhere?

And Eriksson the same?  Seems unlikely.

[Provost]

16 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/10/7/16438232/toronto-maple-leafs-have-made-roster-decisions-because-of-ltir-and-bonus-rules-salary-cap

 

Read this to clarify bonus overages and why it won't effect the Canucks. They have had someone on LTIR all season

That doesn’t apply to our situation.  Our guys with bonuses aren’t LTIR replacements.  It describes a very specific scenario which doesn’t seem to fit what is happening with us.

If you look at our Capfriendly (which this article does for Toronto), we don’t show the full $7 million value of Petterson or Hughes potential performance bonuses as used in LTIR, and we snow zero performance bonus pool.  We wouldn’t have had room for them on LTIR using the calculation in the article.  We don’t and have not had that kind of LTIR room, so couldn’t have called up either of those players, nor do we intend on sending either of them down when our LTIR players return.

 

It is possible there is some other obscure way to have performance bonuses count into LTIR and not the cap, but this particular article doesn’t describe our situation at all.

 

Keep digging.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Provost

[mll]

16 minutes ago, Provost said:

The number that has been bandied about is $3.7 million meaning one of them hits a Schedule B bonus.  We don’t know the details of their contracts, but schedule B bonuses are paid by the league and don’t count towards the cap... but a team can apply its own bonus compensation to any of them up to $2 million dollars.  On high end prospects they tend to make that extra $2 million easy to earn as it it really the only place in an ELC with room to negotiate.  Presumably with his production, Hughes is going to hit his $2 million in Team negotiated Schedule B bonuses.

 

So, to the OPs calculation, if you take basically all that $3.7 Million pushed into next year; add back in Baertschi’s contract which disappeared; and assume a very low cap ceiling increase (after the December BOG meeting GMs were quoted as sayings they are working with an assumption of a $82.5-83.5 cap next year, so theee can’t have been glowing news.

 

Hughes doesn't have schedule B bonuses per CapFriendly.  He has 850K in bonus targets - that's schedule A.  Pettersson has both though but it seems unlikely that he hits his schedule B this season - there's no Calder anymore.  

 

[HKSR]

As I mentioned in my original post, 2021-22 looks more dicey to me.  The gist of it is that Loui MUST be moved if we wanna remain competitive.  His contract basically means we would lose Edler and Pearson. 

 

Sutter is gone, and EP40 and Huggy get their big raises.  I'm assuming they will both finish in the top 10-15 in scoring for forwards and defencemen respectively next year.

 

I gave Demko a raise to $2M, added ELC-type contracts to fill in the gaps, and raised the cap limit another $1M to $83.5M.  Still missing a defenceman for the lineup, and yet we barely squeeze under the cap.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by HKSR

[gameburn]

2 hours ago, Outsiders said:

I'd trade Baertschi + a 3rd to get him gone. With one season left after this surely a team will take a flyer on him

 

Sutter for whatever you can get without retaining any salary. There will be a team that will take on all the money might not get a great return.

 

Benn + Stecher + Tanev = I wouldn't resign or keep any. Especially since Tanev would want 5 million and can't move they puck past centre to safe his life. First season he has managed to stay healthy but I'm not paying 5 million. That's a lot for a guy who normally averages 50 games a season. 

 

At the end of this season Loui has 2 years left at 6 million I believe a team will take him if we add like a 2nd rounder. Pay the price and move on.

 

Insert Juolevi, Rafferty and Tryamkin - Yes inexperienced but IMO Tryamkin can play the shutdown role of Tanev and at 2.5-3 million cheaper. Rafferty can replace Stecher the drop off aint that big and Benn is a healthy scratch so I'm sure Juolevi is no worse. Resign Fanta to keep depth incase injuries. Remember Tryamkin and Rafferty are 25 not 21 year old rookies.

 

I'd rock with a future lineup in 2021-2022 (Obviously trades and tweaks will happen)

 

Miller-Petey-Virtanen

Hogs-Horvat-Boeser

Ferland-Gaudette-Podz

Roussel-Madden-Lind

 

Hughes-Myers

Juolevi-Rafferty/UFA D? Barrie?

Rathbone-Tryamkin

 

Marky 

Demko

 

Beautiful work.   Podz and Hogs... what an energetic lineup that would be.

 

Do you think this Trade Deadline would allow us to move Tanev and maybe Edler?  Utica has 3 D that would be not too out of place right now even: Rafferty and Juolevi, Chatfield even.  Hate to see Tanev and Edler just walk.  

 

Your point about Eriksson is well taken, and the fact that he actually looks like an NHLer again really adds to your argument.

[Where's Wellwood]

31 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Reverse the argument. What's the love affair with Leivo?

I'm pretty sure the team will survive without either of them. But of the two Motte never takes a shift off.

 

29 minutes ago, Rounoush said:

Motte is heart and soul. Numbers aren't everything. Ever since he came back from injury, he has been driving that 4th line and making everyone play better on it. Also, he would demand less money than Leivo.

I absolutely wouldn't be heart broken if we kept neither and Leivo would cost more.

 

Motte's got heart for sure, but if I had to choose between the two, and Leivos salary wasnt an overpayment for his level of production, I'd go Leivo for the offence. If at any time neither are producing, then Motte's better as an energy guy at a lower cost. 

 

I count on Leivos offense being sustainable

[mll]

43 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/10/7/16438232/toronto-maple-leafs-have-made-roster-decisions-because-of-ltir-and-bonus-rules-salary-cap

 

Read this to clarify bonus overages and why it won't effect the Canucks. They have had someone on LTIR all season

LTIR is problematic for performance bonuses.

 

Canucks only have 30K in end of season cap space per CapFriendly.  Any performance bonuses beyond that amount will count against next season's cap.  Ferland is expected to come off LTIR so that amount should increase slightly but not enough to cover all the bonuses for Hughes and Pettersson.  There will be a carry over unless they can move someone.  

 

With already 65% of the season underway they need to move out 5M by the end of this month to bank the necessary cap space to absorb 1.7M in schedule A bonuses and avoid a carry over - unlikely.  

 

That 30'474.- on CapFriendly is the number to monitor.   That number has not changed ever since Ferland went on LTIR despite several roster movements with Utica.  MacEwen just got demoted but it had no effect on end of season cap space - teams can't bank cap space when they are using LTIR.   So when they reach the end of the season they often don't have the necessary money to cover the bonuses and they get carried over.  

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by mll

[Bure_Pavel]

18 minutes ago, HKSR said:

As I mentioned in my original post, 2021-22 looks more dicey to me.  The gist of it is that Loui MUST be moved if we wanna remain competitive.  His contract basically means we would lose Edler and Pearson.  Sutter is gone, and EP40 and Huggy get their big raises.  I'm assuming they will both finish in the top 10-15 in scoring for forwards and defencemen respectively next year.

I gave Demko a raise to $2M, added ELC-type contracts to fill in the gaps, and raised the cap limit another $1M to $83.5M.  Yet we still barely squeeze under the cap.

 

At this point I would assume something could be done will Loui's contact in his final year. 

 

A buyout in the final year makes the cap hit 4 million and 1 million the year after, worst comes to worst. 

 

This would allow us to sign Edler for close to 3 million per year without taking into account bonuses. 

 

ELCs could be a combination: Podkolzin, Lind, Hoglander, Juolevi, and Rafferty 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Bure_Pavel

[Provost]

29 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Hughes doesn't have schedule B bonuses per CapFriendly.  He has 850K in bonus targets - that's schedule A.  Pettersson has both though but it seems unlikely that he hits his schedule B this season - there's no Calder anymore.  

 

You are right, I don’t know why I assumed the extra $2 million was from a Hughes Schedule B bonus.

 

We are saying the exact same thing as far as cap hit and future planning though.  It is that we NEED to get rid of Loui or a similar amount of dead or inefficient cap .  I listed in another thread the issues next season and especially the season after that.  We simply can’t afford to let the performance bonuses from the 2020-21 season ($1.7-$4+ million once you add Juolevi and an improved Gaudette into the mix) push into the 2021-22 season because we will already be paying retail for Petterson and Hughes at that point.

 

To me, that effectively reduces our cap ceiling next year by the (at least $1.7

million) in bonuses pushed from this year AND have to leave space so the bonuses from next year get paid in the year they are earned and not pushed again.  That drops our effective cap available next year by $4-5.5 million.

 

If we have to pay to get rid of Loui, doing it sooner rather than later improves our cap issues more by reducing pushed bonuses.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Provost

[JM_]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

We aren't likely adding any big UFA's but we are likely to see an influx of youth from some mix of Tryamkin, Rafferty, Juolevi, Brisebois, Lind, Bailey, MacEwan, Hoglander etc pushing for spots next camp.

yeah exactly. I don't expect any of those to be world beaters, but coming in as NHL roster quality players is what we need. We've got the core pieces we'll be able to afford as it is. 

 

Now if somehow Jim could bring in a guy like a Toffoli or similar player by moving out someone like Stecher, Baer and mid-round picks, we'll I'll buy Jim a steak because that would be a  a heck of a trade. 

[Arrow 1983]

35 minutes ago, Provost said:

That doesn’t apply to our situation.  Our guys with bonuses aren’t LTIR replacements.  It describes a very specific scenario which doesn’t seem to fit what is happening with us.

If you look at our Capfriendly (which this article does for Toronto), we don’t show the full $7 million value of Petterson or Hughes potential performance bonuses as used in LTIR, and we snow zero performance bonus pool.  We wouldn’t have had room for them on LTIR using the calculation in the article.  We don’t and have not had that kind of LTIR room, so couldn’t have called up either of those players, nor do we intend on sending either of them down when our LTIR players return.

 

It is possible there is some other obscure way to have performance bonuses count into LTIR and not the cap, but this particular article doesn’t describe our situation at all.

 

Keep digging.

 

23 minutes ago, mll said:

Canucks only have 30K in end of season cap space per CapFriendly.  Any performance bonuses beyond that amount will count against next season's cap.  Ferland is expected to come off LTIR so that amount should increase slightly but not enough to cover all the bonuses for Hughes and Pettersson.  There will be a carry over unless they can move someone.  

 

With already 65% of the season underway they need to move out 5M by the end of this month to bank the necessary cap space to absorb 1.7M in schedule A bonuses and avoid a carry over - unlikely.  

 

That 30'474.- on CapFriendly is the number to monitor.   That number has not changed ever since Ferland went on LTIR despite several roster movements with Utica.  MacEwen just got demoted but it had no effect on end of season cap space - teams can't bank cap space when they are using LTIR.   So when they reach the end of the season they often don't have the necessary money to cover the bonuses and they get carried over.  

The Canucks have had first Roussel then Sutter and now ferland on Ltir. Any bonuses that have incurred while they where on LTIR will have used up LTIR space that we have remaining.

If you notice right now on capfriendly the Canucks have 2.8 available in LTIR also notice we are not carrying 23 players it is currently 22 zack was sent to the minors. This is probably due to the fact that as soon as Hughes and Petey play in the all star game this bonus will incur against the available 2.8 million LTIR.

Furthermore, When Freland comes back I fully expect both Leivo and the othe guy I can't remember his name will be moved to LTIR as they sit as IR right now according to capfriendly.

Edited January 23, 2020 by Arrow 1983

[gameburn]

2 hours ago, Alflives said:

Sutter, Beagle, and absolutely Bobby Lou, are NOT plugs.  Plugs are guys who can’t play in the league.  

You're right, but the poster's point is still well taken: a lot of money for players that aren't difference makers and never will be.

The crunch comes next Fall, not in terms of money, but space on the roster.  Hoglander, Podkolzin and Juolevi are all starting to look they could make this team next year.

The poster's list is a pretty good list of what has to be gone if we are to have room for these 3, and that doesn't even include Rafferty and Lind, who seem to be credible alternatives, Rafferty especially.  Good problem to have, though.

 

[mll]

8 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

 

The Canucks have had first Roussel then Sutter and now ferland on Ltir. Any bonuses that have incurred while they where on LTIR will have used up LTIR space that we have remaining.

If you notice right now on capfriendly the Canucks have 2.8 available in LTIR also notice we are not carrying 23 players it is currently 22 zack was sent to the minors. This is probably due to the fact that as soon as Hughes and Petey play in the all star game this bonus will incur against the available 2.8 million LTIR.

Furthermore, When Freland comes back I full expect both Leivo and the othe guy I can't remember his name will be moved to LTIR as the sit as IR right now according to capfriendly.

Bonuses are only determined at the end of the season - the payout and the cap hit happens at the end of the season and not in season.  That end of season cap space then gets reduced by the bonus payment and any excess carried over.  For now the Canucks have 30'474.- in end of season cap space to pay the bonuses.

 

Last season Dallas had Stephen Johns out all season, as well as Hanzal and Methot for a large portion of the season yet were not able to absorb their performance bonuses because LTIR did not allow them to bank end of season cap space.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by mll

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, theo5789 said:

Don't forget everyone that if @Alflives is right, we apparently have a handshake agreement that LE retires after he gets his bonus!

 

Depends on how much I’ve had that day, but the voices (my hockey insiders) do get rather loud in the old noggin.  

[Wanless]

Keep in mind Benning can squeeze Gaudette a little more.

 

Gaudettes only leverage is not signing. Could be had for 1.75-2 mil on a 1-2 years deal

[canuktravella]

1 hour ago, theo5789 said:

Tanev won't be a hot enough commodity for someone to trade for his rights. Rathbone is an LD. I agree that it's unlikely we have Tanev and Stecher here next year unless neither ask for raises or even a pay cut. Leivo is UFA, so he likely walks. Keep Motte. LE mutually terminating his contract is a dream.

rafferty plays on a d pairing with juolevi so he sometimes plays right side  just like tryamkin 

edler hughes and juolevi will be our left side dmen for next 2-3 yrs edlers not retiring  so ya if rafferty wants in nhl he will be a right side d

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, highwayman3 said:

How do you know this?

Lots of scotch increases my powers.

 

[chon derry]

3 hours ago, oldnews said:

 

 

* not for the OP - but for the perpetual premature  crisis-seekers in this market.