[Proposal] You Won't Believe It... but...

[coastal.view]

3 hours ago, lmm said:

sorry man, I'm not going to throw sand with you.

if you don't want to answer questions we cannot have a conversation

bye

how about bring something to the conversation?

 

you state you lack the attention to read my previous post

how would you like me to respond to that ?

 

you do not provide your views on anything

but want me to think about and then post my views of the top backups in the league

provide your list if you think that is important

maybe if my list was longer then 1 or 2 backups you might not be able to read the entire list ?

 

but run away if you must

when i am unwilling to do things according to your wishes

Edited January 29, 2020 by coastal.view

[J.I.A.H.N]

So, just for discussion, I put a value of Demko thread on HF Boards and suggested Arizona's 1st that NJ has...…...

 

Lets just say, it didn't go so well...…………...

[J.I.A.H.N]

38 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

how about bring something to the conversation?

 

you state you lack the attention to read my previous post

how would you like me to respond to that ?

 

you do not provide your views on anything

but want me to think about and then post my views of the top backups in the league

provide your list if you think that is important

maybe if my list was longer then 1 or 2 backups you might not be able to read the entire list ?

 

but run away if you must

when i am unwilling to do things according to your wishes

But you got to admit Coastal, in all fairness

 

You are not exactly a counter proposal type of guy

 

More a tear the proposal to shread's, kinda guy....

 

You are kind of my weather vain

 

But you are consistent 

 

[mll]

More and more teams are into advanced stats.  Several of those stats websites have shutdown as teams have hired them over.

 

Websites like Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey have modelised expected goals against based on factors like shot location, volume, strength of play.   Most teams probably have their own proprietary models and have access to video tracking.  Those sites can still serve as a rough proxy.

 

Playing behind a team that is good at limiting high danger shots and keeping shots to the perimeter is far easier than behind a team that lets opponents get into the scoring areas. 

 

The charts below (using the Evolving Hockey model) show how goalies fare at 5v5 based on context.  Teams marked in purple do a good job at limiting chances - the darker the purple the lower the expected goals against, while gold shows teams that are making life tougher on their goalies.  The better goalies are able to beat the odds regardless of context.   

 

From a trade standpoint would think that the most desirable goalies are the ones with a gold coloured bar and performance at breakeven or above.  They are goalies that operate under a harder environment and still do well.

From a team standpoint the ideal situation is to have a purple bar with their goalies performing above expected - signals good defence and good goalie but it's unclear how such a goalie would do in a more challenging environment.   

 

The goalies to avoid are the ones in purple and below breakeven - despite an easier environment they aren't making the saves they are supposed to. 

 

 

--------------

New Jersey has Tyler Dellow as their director of analytics and according to Friedman part of the reason Shero got fired is that ownership wants a bigger group taking decisions including him.   This model suggest that NJD would probably be worse off replacing Blackwood with Demko.  Blackwood plays under one of the hardest environment (gold colour) while the Canucks do a decent job in front of Demko (light purple).

 

As for Nashville Rinne still has better numbers than Demko.  They also have Connor Ingram in the AHL - he has better AHL numbers than Demko.  Their issue goes far deeper than goaltending.  Changing goalies or anyone on the roster really is not going to do anything for them until the team starts playing again.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by mll

[Canuck Surfer]

8 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

OK.. so what value do you think he has then? 

 

If we offered Demko to NJ for their extra 1st rounder from Arizona they'd be silly not to take it, imo. 

Ur on dope.

 

Blackwood has 15 wins in front of a crappy team defensively. Most among rookies if Im not mistaken?

 

NJ is not trading a first for a goalie.

 

Demko is 4th to 7th among young NHL goalies. Carter Hart, Delta's Tristan Jarry, Ilya Samsonov, Igor Shestyorkin, Elvis Merzlikens, Blackwood then, maybe then Demko.

 

Merzlikens & Jarry have awesome save % & GAA.

[Junkyard Dog]

I don't think any team would trade a 1st for Demko. He's very unestablished and inexperienced. Schnieder had over 100 games in playoff and regular season with us before he was traded. Demko has like a quarter of that experience and isn't nearly as good as Schneider was then.

 

They could just keep their first and sign someone. Some good goalies coming up in the next couple drafts too. Askanov and Wallstedt.

[Rob_Zepp]

8 hours ago, Alflives said:

Same was said when we got 9 OA for carrot top.  Getting a young top goalie, Demko, costs in trade.  UFAs cost big cap dollars and term.  

Alf, goalie market much tighter during that summer actually.   Right now the goalie market is about as flush as it has been in a long while    Further, I see zero rush for the Canucks to do anything other than sign Markstrom to a reasonable deal (AAV/Term) and have he and Demko backstop this team as a tandem for at least three or four more years.

[Bure1010]

12 hours ago, HKSR said:

Jussi Saros' 3.13 GAA and 0.895 Save% say hello.

 

Never say never.  Many would never have thought Cory Schneider would fetch a 9th OA pick either.  It was a surprise to the hockey world when that trade was made.

I seem to remember a lot of insiders thinking the Canucks should have gotten more than just the pick. I also recall that oilers had offered 7 oa and Magnus paajarivi who at the time was seen as a good prospect. But Canucks didn’t want Schneider in the division

[Rob_Zepp]

12 hours ago, HKSR said:

You Won't Believe It... but...

You're right!   I simply don't believe it.    

 

[kloubek]

Is either of Saros or Rinne so bad? Until this year, Rinne was still putting up acceptable numbers. This year with both doing poorly makes me think it has more to do with their team play rather than the goalies.

 

But even if this is a consideration, I don't think Demko gets us the 9th. Schneider got the 10th and his numbers were stellar with a larger sample size. Still, if they were interested, I could see us adding some for that 9th.