Canucks and the Cap Over the Next Three Years

[BigTramFan]

I believe JB will move Sutter, Stecher and Baer before next season. I don't think Ericksson will be able to be moved until after next season when he has just 1 year left on his contract.

 

Resign the following for 2020/21 (plenty of room to negotiate and keep this total below $21.6m):

Markstrom $5m

Virtanen $3.0m

Gaudette $2.0m

Leivo $1.8m

Motte $1.1m

Tanev $4.75m

Tryamkin $2.5m

Fantenberg $1.0m

 

Canucks roster for next season (total cap hit including all recapture, etc = $78.0m) should be enough cap space to cover performance bonuses:

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Virtanen

Roussel Gaudette Leivo

Ferland Beagle Motte

Ericksson

 

Edler Myers

Hughes Tanev

Benn Tryamkin

Fantenberg

 

Markstrom

Demko

[qwijibo]

3 minutes ago, BigTramFan said:

I believe JB will move Sutter, Stecher and Baer before next season. I don't think Ericksson will be able to be moved until after next season when he has just 1 year left on his contract.

 

Resign the following for 2020/21 (plenty of room to negotiate and keep this total below $21.6m):

Markstrom $5m

Virtanen $3.0m

Gaudette $2.0m

Leivo $1.8m

Motte $1.1m

Tanev $4.75m

Tryamkin $2.5m

Fantenberg $1.0m

 

Canucks roster for next season (total cap hit including all recapture, etc = $78.0m) should be enough cap space to cover performance bonuses:

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Virtanen

Roussel Gaudette Leivo

Ferland Beagle Motte

Ericksson

 

Edler Myers

Hughes Tanev

Benn Tryamkin

Fantenberg

 

Markstrom

Demko

Your salary estimates seem extremely optimistic. 

[coastal.view]

1 hour ago, BigTramFan said:

I believe JB will move Sutter, Stecher and Baer before next season. I don't think Ericksson will be able to be moved until after next season when he has just 1 year left on his contract.

 

Resign the following for 2020/21 (plenty of room to negotiate and keep this total below $21.6m):

Markstrom $5m

Virtanen $3.0m

Gaudette $2.0m

Leivo $1.8m

Motte $1.1m

Tanev $4.75m

Tryamkin $2.5m

Fantenberg $1.0m

 

Canucks roster for next season (total cap hit including all recapture, etc = $78.0m) should be enough cap space to cover performance bonuses:

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Virtanen

Roussel Gaudette Leivo

Ferland Beagle Motte

Ericksson

 

Edler Myers

Hughes Tanev

Benn Tryamkin

Fantenberg

 

Markstrom

Demko

i see that you assume joulevi will never make the nuck team ?

i kinda think he has to next season

and will be added unless he incurs another major injury

they have to find out what they have in this prospect

[Where's Wellwood]

If we buy out Erickson in the off season of 2021, the caphit is 4 million that final 2021-22 season of his contract, then 1 million the year after.

 

Would the 1 million hit in 2022-23 be worth the 2 million savings in the tight 2021-22 season?

[Provost]

Thoughtful OP, any way you slice it, it adds up to us being worse (on paper) for the next two years.

 

The OP also needs to consider the pushed ELC from this year which we basically have no way to avoid at this point... but it is a very good idea to assume the bonuses next year into the calculation because he is right that we can’t afford to push those into 2021-22.

 

I honestly say bite the bullet on Eriksson and Baertschi,  and do it at the deadline this year.  It basically solves most of the problems going forward.  A premium in futures to give us two extra seasons of playoff contention and not regressing?  Worth it to me.

 

I have a significant worry that the cap isn’t going to go up at all, or just by a nominal amount.  If you look at the League payrolls, basically everyone is at or

over the cap.  That means a huge escrow hit for players, as the cap is based on a midpoint average assuming half the team will be under the average.

With a basically flat cap, we are in trouble and so are a lot of teams... and the price to shed cap will increase.

 

[Rob_Zepp]

18 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

I stated that I was going to go through this exercise while retaining our current assets.  I know there will be trades but I still maintain that signing both Pettersson and Hughes to long term contracts in the same year will deplete the depth of our lineup to an extent that is simply unwise.  I challenge you to create a lineup in 2021-2022 that has a decent amount of depth and doesn't sacrifice Eriksson for a first round pick.  It is nearly impossible... and if you think anyone will want to take Roussel, Beagle, or Ferland off of our hands as a cap dump you're kidding yourself (or simply shortsighted into thinking we won't have to give up futures to make this happen).  Either one of Pettersson or Hughes will sign a bridge deal or our future assets will have to be sacrificed to get rid of cap space (see Patrick Marleau) or our depth will be depleted just to fit Hughes and Pettersson under the cap on long term deals...

Far from impossible - many different combinations.   You clearly have a position - good for you.   I totally disagree with it.    Your doom and gloom scenario is not backed by the facts though hats off for your new incarnation having such an intense start at it.   I don't think anyone in the history of CDC had this many words after so few posts.    Pace yourself.  

[Phil_314]

Makes me wonder (if the team realizes Loui won't retire and they'll lose Demko at the Ex Draft, or that Pete/ Hughes want big money) if the team would consider packaging Demko with Loui (much like Chicago did with Teravainen and Bickell) and recoup a lesser goalie and maybe a 5th.  

 

Then if Rafferty is ready/ Stecher becomes too expensive they could possibly trade him and bundle with Sutter to get another minimal return asset-wise but great return in cap.  Baertschi could probably be flipped at the deadline for another mid to low-round pick?  Gotta hope management has addition by subtraction in mind.

[J.I.A.H.N]

I have enjoyed this season immensely, look forward to seeing us continue to progress. But, I can't help wonder if we jumped the gun by a year or so. I question this because of our cap and old core players, who will need to be moved out for our young players coming in, while still under contract. In saying that, I think Miller and Myers were good signings/trades.

 

People name, Sutter, Baertschi, Eriksson, as players that will need to be moved, but we may be adding another couple of names onto to the list in Ferland and Benn. I think that the list grew this year, and may be Benning's only mistakes, in that all will be impossible or hard to move.

 

Ferland will be impossible to move in his present state, and I am not confident his stay here will not be similar to Tanev's in and out of the line-up history. If Ferland completely recovers, he will definitely help, but I believe that is totally up in the air, as to whether he can stay healthy. I am personally hoping for a couple of compliance buy outs before the Seattle expansion draft. (It would help fix things for many cash strapped teams)

 

As for the others on my list, I am not sure how many of them can be moved without either retention or a asset attached to them. 

 

I will this however say. Benning has been able to continually navigating his cap issues, and believe he will continue to prove me wrong, as much as I have said otherwise. Luongo's penalty did throw a cog in the spokes.

 

Another scenario, I wonder if it could occur, is if Baertschi agrees to mutually terminate his contract, if he is not traded this summer. Baertschi has been a true pro, but I would find it odd, if he did not want play in a better league than the AHL. I think the KHL provides that, and with adjusted standard of living costs, he could live as good of life there, as here, again providing he did not sign on here, for a lesser amount. (Baertschi $3,666,666)

 

People say that Sutter has value, but I really truly question that, especially at his cost? IMO, his $4,375,000 is way too much for a 3/4 liner. 50% Cap Retention, certainly makes him sellable, but don't expect any return on investment. 

 

Eriksson is also getting to the point where he "could" be moved with something attached. With his cap hit being $6,000,000 per for the next 2 seasons, and his actual cost being much less, there are several scenario's where he could be moved. But any team taking Eriksson knows that Vancouver is in a bind, and will expect something in return. Something BIG! In my opinion, it could be Madden and a 2nd to Ottawa, who will be loosing several of their LTIR players they use to reach the cap floor.

 

Benn is another player, who has not shown his contract worth, and could be moved with a small amount of retention($500,000), or could be sent down to Utica, where the Canucks could save approx. $1,100,000, but would turn around and immediately spend it by bringing up a young prospect. So, not much savings on him in any case.

 

In any case, after doing a quick exercise, I will re-adjust my original statement, that moving these players is almost impossible, as IMO, these moves could be made by Benning in short order if he needed the cash.

 

One crazy, just fun, "what if?" scenario, would be to have Sven terminate/retires and goes to Europe, plays in the KHL and is paid as a scout by the Canucks, looking for diamonds in the KHL. Just wanted to throw that out there, as anything is possible in the NHL, as we seen by the Luongo retirement, and him working in the front office.

 

Hey, the sky is not falling!

[jammin_jk]

18 hours ago, Where's Wellwood said:

If we buy out Erickson in the off season of 2021, the caphit is 4 million that final 2021-22 season of his contract, then 1 million the year after.

 

Would the 1 million hit in 2022-23 be worth the 2 million savings in the tight 2021-22 season?

This is a definite viable option that I think is WAY better than giving up a pick to dump his contract.

[jammin_jk]

2 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

I have enjoyed this season immensely, look forward to seeing us continue to progress. But, I can't help wonder if we jumped the gun by a year or so. I question this because of our cap and old core players, who will need to be moved out for our young players coming in, while still under contract. In saying that, I think Miller and Myers were good signings/trades.

 

People name, Sutter, Baertschi, Eriksson, as players that will need to be moved, but we may be adding another couple of names onto to the list in Ferland and Benn. I think that the list grew this year, and may be Benning's only mistakes, in that all will be impossible or hard to move.

 

Ferland will be impossible to move in his present state, and I am not confident his stay here will not be similar to Tanev's in and out of the line-up history. If Ferland completely recovers, he will definitely help, but I believe that is totally up in the air, as to whether he can stay healthy. I am personally hoping for a couple of compliance buy outs before the Seattle expansion draft. (It would help fix things for many cash strapped teams)

 

As for the others on my list, I am not sure how many of them can be moved without either retention or a asset attached to them. 

 

I will this however say. Benning has been able to continually navigating his cap issues, and believe he will continue to prove me wrong, as much as I have said otherwise. Luongo's penalty did throw a cog in the spokes.

 

Another scenario, I wonder if it could occur, is if Baertschi agrees to mutually terminate his contract, if he is not traded this summer. Baertschi has been a true pro, but I would find it odd, if he did not want play in a better league than the AHL. I think the KHL provides that, and with adjusted standard of living costs, he could live as good of life there, as here, again providing he did not sign on here, for a lesser amount. (Baertschi $3,666,666)

 

People say that Sutter has value, but I really truly question that, especially at his cost? IMO, his $4,375,000 is way too much for a 3/4 liner. 50% Cap Retention, certainly makes him sellable, but don't expect any return on investment. 

 

Eriksson is also getting to the point where he "could" be moved with something attached. With his cap hit being $6,000,000 per for the next 2 seasons, and his actual cost being much less, there are several scenario's where he could be moved. But any team taking Eriksson knows that Vancouver is in a bind, and will expect something in return. Something BIG! In my opinion, it could be Madden and a 2nd to Ottawa, who will be loosing several of their LTIR players they use to reach the cap floor.

 

Benn is another player, who has not shown his contract worth, and could be moved with a small amount of retention($500,000), or could be sent down to Utica, where the Canucks could save approx. $1,100,000, but would turn around and immediately spend it by bringing up a young prospect. So, not much savings on him in any case.

 

In any case, after doing a quick exercise, I will re-adjust my original statement, that moving these players is almost impossible, as IMO, these moves could be made by Benning in short order if he needed the cash.

 

One crazy, just fun, "what if?" scenario, would be to have Sven terminate/retires and goes to Europe, plays in the KHL and is paid as a scout by the Canucks, looking for diamonds in the KHL. Just wanted to throw that out there, as anything is possible in the NHL, as we seen by the Luongo retirement, and him working in the front office.

 

Hey, the sky is not falling!

I agree with a lot of what you're saying except for the fact that trading Eriksson for a 2nd and Madden would be any type of good move.  I agree it would take that much, but that would be stupid on Benning's part...

[jammin_jk]

3 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Far from impossible - many different combinations.   You clearly have a position - good for you.   I totally disagree with it.    Your doom and gloom scenario is not backed by the facts though hats off for your new incarnation having such an intense start at it.   I don't think anyone in the history of CDC had this many words after so few posts.    Pace yourself.  

I'd love to see you make that roster that realistically doesn't give up "futures" (prospects or picks) to get rid of our overpaid contracts and signs both Hughes and Pettersson to long term deals (10 million each) while keeping our core intact.  I'm not being accusatory, but just don't think you can do it without trading futures or being unrealistic... try it!

[jammin_jk]

2 hours ago, Phil_314 said:

Makes me wonder (if the team realizes Loui won't retire and they'll lose Demko at the Ex Draft, or that Pete/ Hughes want big money) if the team would consider packaging Demko with Loui (much like Chicago did with Teravainen and Bickell) and recoup a lesser goalie and maybe a 5th.  

 

Then if Rafferty is ready/ Stecher becomes too expensive they could possibly trade him and bundle with Sutter to get another minimal return asset-wise but great return in cap.  Baertschi could probably be flipped at the deadline for another mid to low-round pick?  Gotta hope management has addition by subtraction in mind.

This is certainly a possibility I have thought of... interesting... also wonder then who would be exposed from our team at the expansion draft...

[jammin_jk]

15 hours ago, Provost said:

Thoughtful OP, any way you slice it, it adds up to us being worse (on paper) for the next two years.

 

The OP also needs to consider the pushed ELC from this year which we basically have no way to avoid at this point... but it is a very good idea to assume the bonuses next year into the calculation because he is right that we can’t afford to push those into 2021-22.

 

I honestly say bite the bullet on Eriksson and Baertschi,  and do it at the deadline this year.  It basically solves most of the problems going forward.  A premium in futures to give us two extra seasons of playoff contention and not regressing?  Worth it to me.

 

I have a significant worry that the cap isn’t going to go up at all, or just by a nominal amount.  If you look at the League payrolls, basically everyone is at or

over the cap.  That means a huge escrow hit for players, as the cap is based on a midpoint average assuming half the team will be under the average.

With a basically flat cap, we are in trouble and so are a lot of teams... and the price to shed cap will increase.

 

Not worth it to me.  Sacrificing current cap crunches for future ones... to trade away futures ruins us in the future because those futures (draft picks or prospects... say Madden) come in on ELCs.  This is exactly what I hope Benning avoids.  There are too many factors when you make the playoffs to go "all in" or sacrifice for the future.  Too many examples to list, but Arizona is worse right now with Hall (at least their record is).  I say Benning keeps doing what he's doing.

[Rob_Zepp]

50 minutes ago, jammin_jk said:

I'd love to see you make that roster that realistically doesn't give up "futures" (prospects or picks) to get rid of our overpaid contracts and signs both Hughes and Pettersson to long term deals (10 million each) while keeping our core intact.  I'm not being accusatory, but just don't think you can do it without trading futures or being unrealistic... try it!

Done a number of realistic scenarios Sparky.   They all work just fine.   

 

Try the decaf....the one with the orange top.

[Provost]

1 hour ago, jammin_jk said:

Not worth it to me.  Sacrificing current cap crunches for future ones... to trade away futures ruins us in the future because those futures (draft picks or prospects... say Madden) come in on ELCs.  This is exactly what I hope Benning avoids.  There are too many factors when you make the playoffs to go "all in" or sacrifice for the future.  Too many examples to list, but Arizona is worse right now with Hall (at least their record is).  I say Benning keeps doing what he's doing.

Except it is your Proposal that is creating a future cap crunch....

 

Signing Hughes or Petterson to a bridge deal is going to cost much more against the cap going forward.  The new TV deal will increase the cap, and the player will have more of a resume after a bridge deal.  The way teams have been successful is to have their stars locked up long term, and then winning when those players become great bargains in the last half of those contracts.

 

Your plans also mean we are significantly worse over the next two years, on paper at least.  Players sign for less if they see a chance to win, just like our 2011 run.  If we make the playoffs and even win a round or two this year, and then miss the playoffs for the next two seasons because our defence is worse than Toronto’s... then that costs us cap going forward.

 

Not all prospects pan out or have a spot on the roster.  We have a solid enough pipeline that moving out one guy and a high pick doesn’t bankrupt our future.  If doing that means we can keep our current depth, that is a better return than those futures are ever likely to bring.

[J.I.A.H.N]

4 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

I agree with a lot of what you're saying except for the fact that trading Eriksson for a 2nd and Madden would be any type of good move.  I agree it would take that much, but that would be stupid on Benning's part...

I think getting rid of Baertschi, Sutter and Eriksson, costs us 2 M + Madden + a 2nd = about 12 Million in cap space, and the cost is what I believe to be a Maximum hit,

 

It could be less...……..I also feel somewhat questionable about Madden long term, as a prospect, but I could be wrong. Maybe it is Woo we move? but it will not be

 

Juolevi, Rathbone, Podkolzin, Rafferty, Tryamkin or Hoglander, all who I believe will be pushing for spots on the Canucks as soon as next year, with the exception of 

 

Podkolzin.

 

I also think that your costing of Pettersson and Hughes are off, and will not cost that much long term...…..

 

I am thinking in the 7 to 8 Million dollar cost each, when the time comes. I also think the cap goes up 4 to 7 Million over the next 2 years

 

Then the TV deal.

 

IMO, the league is not trying to penalize the franchises, which is what will happen, if they are too tight.

[jammin_jk]

8 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

I think getting rid of Baertschi, Sutter and Eriksson, costs us 2 M + Madden + a 2nd = about 12 Million in cap space, and the cost is what I believe to be a Maximum hit,

 

It could be less...……..I also feel somewhat questionable about Madden long term, as a prospect, but I could be wrong. Maybe it is Woo we move? but it will not be

 

Juolevi, Rathbone, Podkolzin, Rafferty, Tryamkin or Hoglander, all who I believe will be pushing for spots on the Canucks as soon as next year, with the exception of 

 

Podkolzin.

 

I also think that your costing of Pettersson and Hughes are off, and will not cost that much long term...…..

 

I am thinking in the 7 to 8 Million dollar cost each, when the time comes. I also think the cap goes up 4 to 7 Million over the next 2 years

 

Then the TV deal.

 

IMO, the league is not trying to penalize the franchises, which is what will happen, if they are too tight.

Love your optimism and wish I was of the same ilk.  There's literally no way Pettersson or Hughes come in at 7-8 million long term (6-8 years).  Unless they become worse players than they are now.  Compared to their draft classes Pettersson goes #1 in a redraft (unanimous) and Hughes goes anywhere #1-3 depending on who you ask.  Hughes and Makar are literally putting up points in their rookie seasons that hasn't been seen for years.  Also no chance the cap goes up 7 million over the next two years... 4 million maybe...

 

Also, no sure anyone wants Woo.  It looks like he was drafted right about where he should have been (his points have regressed since last year).

 

I get the hesitation on Madden though... now THAT is a small body!

[jammin_jk]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

Except it is your Proposal that is creating a future cap crunch....

 

Signing Hughes or Petterson to a bridge deal is going to cost much more against the cap going forward.  The new TV deal will increase the cap, and the player will have more of a resume after a bridge deal.  The way teams have been successful is to have their stars locked up long term, and then winning when those players become great bargains in the last half of those contracts.

 

Your plans also mean we are significantly worse over the next two years, on paper at least.  Players sign for less if they see a chance to win, just like our 2011 run.  If we make the playoffs and even win a round or two this year, and then miss the playoffs for the next two seasons because our defence is worse than Toronto’s... then that costs us cap going forward.

 

Not all prospects pan out or have a spot on the roster.  We have a solid enough pipeline that moving out one guy and a high pick doesn’t bankrupt our future.  If doing that means we can keep our current depth, that is a better return than those futures are ever likely to bring.

Agreed that moving a guy and a draft pick doesn't bankrupt our future but I truly believe that it doesn't even help our cap situation moving forward that much.  Would you rather have Madden (let's say he hits the middle of his ceiling... Gaudette style) in your lineup in 3 years or a replacement player like Beagle or Sutter or (enter name here) for significantly more money?  That's just an example but I really don't think our cup window is the next two seasons.

 

Also, to say that we may not get much worse on the back end because of our internal depth is THAT far fetched.  I would expect Tryamkin and Juolevi (and Rafferty?) to get time next year.

[jammin_jk]

3 hours ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Done a number of realistic scenarios Sparky.   They all work just fine.   

 

Try the decaf....the one with the orange top.

I'm honestly not calling you out, I'm just having a discussion.  I've been on these forums (reading) for probably 10-15 years so I'm not new, just haven't made many posts because didn't feel a desire to.

 

I don't feel like searching for your proposed lineup for next year or in two years, so can you post it here?  

 

Also, saying I need decaf?  You don't even know me and I haven't even tried to insult you or anybody.  Just trying to poke people's brains...

[J.I.A.H.N]

5 minutes ago, jammin_jk said:

Love your optimism and wish I was of the same ilk.  There's literally no way Pettersson or Hughes come in at 7-8 million long term (6-8 years).  Unless they become worse players than they are now.  Compared to their draft classes Pettersson goes #1 in a redraft (unanimous) and Hughes goes anywhere #1-3 depending on who you ask.  Hughes and Makar are literally putting up points in their rookie seasons that hasn't been seen for years.  Also no chance the cap goes up 7 million over the next two years... 4 million maybe...

 

Also, no sure anyone wants Woo.  It looks like he was drafted right about where he should have been (his points have regressed since last year).

 

I get the hesitation on Madden though... now THAT is a small body!

I guess the point is that Benning has ways out, and I would also note that, in my scenario of how he would get out, no one of value leaves including Tanev.

 

Also, Ottawa needs LTIR and  Eriksson is one of the best value players to pick p after, his cap this summer is paid......also as a player Eriksson has value

 

as a PK player, decent wing support and is a great role player for a young team...…...separately, each item does not give him great value, but collectively

 

all the above makes him desirable. Not that Ottawa will not play the game and demand some sort of payment to take him.

 

I think there are too many variables to get all worked up about the cap situation.  Hughes and Pettersson will be closer to 7/8 million than 10 million

 

that is my bet...….and they may be 4 year contracts at that, to do a long term bridge type deal, making it easier on the Canucks

 

and still getting those players a substantial raise.