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Canucks and the Cap Over the Next Three Years


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8 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

Baer is off the books when Pettersson needs his new contract

Yes, but it would be good to get him off now... need to resign Jake and Markstrom among others.  When you look at the numbers, we need him gone ASAP...

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1 minute ago, mll said:

LTIR is more of a hindrance than a help especially for teams with players on ELC who are bonus eligible.  LTIR was the reason why Bowman moved Hinostroza who he called an untouchable just a few months earlier to clear Hossa's LTIR contract.  When a team uses LTIR they can't really bank cap space so it creates bonus overages which then count against next season's cap space.  It also limits who they can recall from the minors.  

So we’re even more screwed cap wise than before?  We need to dump LE, Sutter, and Baer.  

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2 minutes ago, jammin_jk said:

Yes, but it would be good to get him off now... need to resign Jake and Markstrom among others.  When you look at the numbers, we need him gone ASAP...

If we start having to trade away young assets (picks, prospects, players) just to dump these horrible contracts won’t that narrow our window for winning?  Those young assets are supposed to be taking the place of guys who are too expensive, right?  God, this is such a friggin’ mess!  

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Perhaps the solution can be found in how Roberto Luongo retired.  If LE can be persuaded to retire next year (after his signing bonus) and offered a plum office job in Sweden as Vancouver Canucks ambassador/scout.  That would be 6M off the books asap.

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On 2/4/2020 at 9:10 PM, jammin_jk said:

Throughout this post, I am also assuming that players hit their performance bonuses and the team elects to keep those under the cap structure (as opposed to paying them the following year, which becomes ugly).  If there is carryover from this year (looks like around 1 million), I’m assuming that carryover will continue year over year until we are out of our cap hell.  So, you will see that added performance bonus in 2022-2023, the year our cap hell ends.  Also, I’m not thinking about the Seattle expansion draft but if it was my guess Demko will be snatched and Dipietro is our backup sooner than later.

Pettersson and Hughes will likely hit their schedule A - 850K each so combined 1.7M.  Gaudette/MacEwen might have games played bonuses.

 

CapFriendly shows the Canucks with 30'474.- in end of season cap space to cover those bonuses and any excess will get carried over to next season.  That amount hasn't changed ever since Ferland went on LTIR as teams can't really bank cap space with LTIR in use.

 

Today there's 32% of the season left so every 1M cleared today will only bank 320K and it goes down each day. At the TDL there's about 20% of the season left so a 1M is closer to 200K  There will possibly be more than 1M overage as the team is not close to coming out of LTIR and not sure they will manage to trade out contracts.

 

Ferland should be coming off LTIR soon but Leivo, Motte and Graovac are still injured so likely someone else going on LTIR to take him off it, rather than clearing actual cap space.

 

Shouldn't this season's bonus overage appear somewhere under the cap projection for 2020/21.  Once the TDL is past there should be a better indication of the carry-over - clearing a contract would help. 

 

As you've added the bonuses in 2020/21 to avoid a carry over to 2021/22 - Hughes with bonus is not 1.6M but 1.77M (916K + 850K).   Lind similar issue.  Unlike the salary the bonus is not averaged - Lind has a potential bonus of 200K in 2021/22.  It's not a huge difference but it can be. For example Juolevi's potential bonus this year was 1.45M but next season it drops to 850K.  

 

 

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So, on to next season (2020-2021)… first off, we have seen an epic turn in Virtanen’s career this year.  Many fans have been enjoying their #shotgunjake moments and he has many more to come.  The team has been faithful to him and he knows it.  He doesn’t want to go anywhere and we don’t want him to go anywhere… too much potential.  As an RFA, I say he signs for 2 years @ $3 million per.  We can’t afford him longer ATM since his cap hit would go up drastically…

Virtanen will be a UFA in 2 years.  He is already in his 5th pro-season and UFA is the earliest between 7 pro-years and age 27.  He also has arbitration rights.  His agent will likely file as it gives him more leverage.  It would be for a 1-year deal as 2 brings him to UFA.  Teams can't walk away if the award is under circa 4.4M.  Would think the Canucks would try to go longer term.  1 year would have him up at the same time as Hughes/Pettersson and with arbitration rights 1 year to UFA - Canucks might prefer to avoid that.  

 

 

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Finally for the forwards, we are going to see (miraculously) Baertschi traded to a team with enough cap space to take him on and injuries on their roster.  We won’t retain any salary… maybe he goes to Pittsburgh, we’ve fleeced that GM before (ahem, Gudbranson).  Perhaps JB has to bite the bullet and sacrifice a 4th round pick to get rid of Baertschi.  In addition, we are going to trade Sutter in the off season and will have to retain $2 million of his salary to do so… sorry Canuck fans.  But with only 1 year left on his contract, someone will take him.  He is foundational after all…

The Canucks are not really in a strong bargaining position when it comes to off-loading contracts.  Every team can see that Baertschi is not part of their plans.  Would think that teams are more likely to look at UFAs from the teams out of the playoffs rather than take an additional year of contract - he's also not at NHL pace after spending nearly all season in the AHL.

 

Last TDL there was no interest in Sutter per McKenzie.  He still thought the Canucks could maybe trade him with salary retained.  Now a year later and more time missed with another injury to his core - seems doubtful that a team would want to take that risk without compensation or sending another contract back.

 

Earlier in the season a GM was explaining to Dhaliwal that the Canucks can't take an LTIR contract back in a trade because of their bonus exposure for Hughes and Pettersson.  Ferland is an LTIR risk and Pettersson/Hughes are still on their ELCs.  It gives even more leverage to other GMs.

 

The TDL is soon here but can't say I'm as optimistic - I just think other teams have more leverage to exploit the Canucks because of the bonus exposure, Ferland's LTIR risk, Markstrom being UFA, Virtanen's arbitration rights and I would guess that Benning wants to bring Tanev back.  I do note that you think otherwise but I see Stecher being on the way out instead.

 

Would be surprised if Tryamkin gets 2M.  Canucks have options now and he doesn't have much choice but to sign with them if he wants to play in the NHL.  Would think closer to 1M.

 

Don't think Juolevi would earn 1.8M in 2021/22 coming his ELC when you don't have him in the lineup in 2020/21.  I would have him around 1M if he spends all of next season in the AHL.   Noticed that you have bonuses for Podkolzin in 2021/22 but possibly not Hoglander as you have him at 900K.   

 

Edited by mll
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54 minutes ago, Alflives said:

If we start having to trade away young assets (picks, prospects, players) just to dump these horrible contracts won’t that narrow our window for winning?  Those young assets are supposed to be taking the place of guys who are too expensive, right?  God, this is such a friggin’ mess!  

Yes, it would shorten our window... that's why we shouldn't do it... we would be the Canucks circa 2011 with a younger small core, but our window would shrink...

 

That was the purpose of this thread.  To see if we can remain competitive over the next few years (not our cup window anyways) while retaining our assets.  I think my answer is "yes", we can do it.  If you will read my original post you will see this.  The only thing I am hopeful for is that somehow someone takes on Baertschi, even if we have to give up a fourth round(-ish) pick.

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5 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

Tell me a single D-man on that list you'd trade for Hughes and a single forward you'd trade for Pettersson and I'd love to be the GM to take Pettersson and Hughes off your hands.  They are better than any of those you listed already... and younger.  Brayden Point and Rantanen are the closest but they are on elite teams and their linemates are inflating their stats...

I am not even going to argue this with you......I love our guys

But most of these guys will be elite, for some time

Our 2 guys fit right in there with these guys

They are all the Young elite of the NHL

And the point was, for you to take a look at their salaries

Your statement is that our 2 are 2 to 3 million better than most of that list

That is where you are missing the point

And I am not even saying they are not better...but by how much?

That is my point!

I can't argue with you, if you can't see that...….

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5 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

Hey... I'd love for this guy to retire but you can't depend on it.  Everyone loves them some money!  I promise there's no agreement between him and the team that he's retiring early.  This is a professional athlete with pride...

 

If we had to give up a second, it's not worth it.  Not with our drafting... Demko and Hoglander (and later picks like Madden and Gaudette) say "Hi".

 

I feel like you have a tendency to overvalue or undervalue our players to your benefit (overvalue Eriksson so he can be tradeable and undervalue Pettersson and Hughes to fit them under the cap).  

My point is...Eriksson has value...can't help it if you can't see that. Ottawa may need his cap.that is all I am saying and I pointed out how Datsyuks last trade happened

and Dats had absolutely no value as a player.only as a cap hit

Also..no one has any idea what Benning has or has not done about Eriksson, and his contract...….so, unless you are "in the know", my guess is as good as yours...….

and if the question is...……...

Who does Ottawa or any other team want to take Eriksson's salary, well I can probably list 20 players on the Canucks and their prospects I would give up a 2nd before trading

any of them for.....

No, it is not me, that is having trouble here, my friend...………..sorry!

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5 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

I pray something like this happens but it isn't likely given JBs track record with trades like this... just don't bet on it... but nice find!

I bet on nothing here, because, Like you, I do not know...……….I merely point out that it happens

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On 2/4/2020 at 12:10 PM, jammin_jk said:

 

Thoughts?  (other than the length... God bless you if you made it through this... just had some time to burn and had fun thinking about our teams future)

No Tanev, no thanks.

 

Edit: not sure why Canuck fans think they need to manage the cap.  JB and his team will do that just fine.

Edited by Kanukfanatic
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3 hours ago, jammin_jk said:

Your roster from page 2 has a few contracts that may be underestimated and I'd love to see the cap hits beside all of your players because I don't think they have the bonuses included (which Pettersson and Hughes will both hit for sure).  There is no "relative ease" about the cap next year and we can't carry over bonuses because 2021-2022 is even worse.  I'd love to see your rosters with actual numbers.  I've also never heard any professional recently guess that Markstrom would sign for $5 million.  If he does, that would be incredible but he's closer to 5.5-6...

Thanks for your opinion, but in my opinion the salary estimates are fine. We will see soon enough what the salary values are. 

 

None of us know exactly what JB will do with the roster, but I think there is plenty of room to make moves that keep the roster competitive and remain cap compliant. No need to panic. In my previous post I am only giving an example of what I would do. And as a further example, if Markstrom requires $6.0m, and because he is what I would consider a priority signing, then I would likely look at not resigning Leivo and bringing in a younger ELC prospect in his place to free up the required cap space for $6.0m. There are always moves that can be made, and such moves WILL be made because they must be made to stay compliant.

 

As per your request to see all the salaries...the attached screen shot from capfriendly shows that we could have $3.5m of cap space, with a maximum of $3.7m of performance bonuses to be paid (unlikely that the bonuses would reach $3.7m, so $3.5m should be fine).

 

Regarding your other questions...I always included recapture penalties and buyouts in my figures. And, no we don't need to have a 14th forward on the roster imo.

 

Cheers.

 

Part1.JPG

Part2.JPG

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