[Trade] Kings trade Jack Campbell, Kyle Clifford to Maple Leafs for Trevor Moore, 2020 3rd-round pick, conditional 2021 3rd-round pick

[EternalCanuckFan]

1 minute ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Oh. Didn't know that Ceci was injured. Isn't Ceci supposed to be really overrated?

Ceci is a favorite whipping boy based on advanced stats.  The numbers are terrible from what I have seen so who knows, maybe the team will actually perform better without him especially with what should be improved goaltending.  Ceci is one of the few D they have who is able to play a bit of a physical game though, so their blueline is even less physical without him.  Muzzin returning should help at least a little bit, and Sandin has actually been quite good overall.  Considering Liljegren was called up earlier this year, if Ceci is out for awhile then this will be a good test for Liljegren.  The team is very skilled but they are very lacking in sandpaper.  Clifford will help but there's only so much one guy can do.

[JM_]

Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

I could see him doing something. Benn isn't playing at all, and that has to burn Benning's hide a tad. Stecher, for as much heart as he has, will eventually need to move on to make way for defensemen ascending from Utica, and possibly one coming from Russia this spring.

I don't see how we keep both. 

 

But TO is surely &^@#ed. Muzzin-Barrie is their top pair now. I'm sure there's other teams in the mix to make trades with, but both Stecher or Benn could come quite cheap from a cap pov, with TO also needs. 

[WHL rocks]

1 hour ago, Tower102 said:

Clifford is hardly an upgrade on Moore when considering Moore is signed to another year and Clifford is a rental. To me that is basically a wash, meaning the Leafs gave up a 3rd and either a 2nd/3rd for a back up goalie. Campbell may not have had goal support in LA, but now he doesn't have any defence support in Toronto which will affect his overall numbers more. I will concede that I think he has better upside than his numbers show this year, but that is too high a price for a back up goalie.

 

They were more or less forced into this trade as they are in such a bad cap position for next year that they need to go all in to get in the playoffs this year so its not a terrible trade for them, I just think the Kings got better value out of it. 

Clifford has 2 Stanley Cups. He's played more playoff games than Moore has played regular season NHL games. He's a solid defensive forward plays an abrasive game. 

 

Moore is a warm body going to LA for roster and cap purposes. A throw in with zero value. LA needed a player back and the cap needed to balance out. With Moore out Hutch sent to AHL and LA eating 50% of Clifford's salary the cap does not change at all for Leafs. Exact same dollars out as coming in. 

 

Next year is a long ways away. We'll see what happens with their cap in summer..Trades at the draft, UFAs,  rookies etc. a lot will change. Just like for the Canucks. 

 

TML were 9-10-3 with Babcock. 

 

They are 19-9-3 under Keefe. One of best records in NHL over that span. Their #1 goalie is injured and Hutch sucked. 

 

As far as defense. Leafs have allowed 10 more goals than LA with their #1 Dman out long term and #1 goalie injured . 

 

At the same time they've scored 61 more goals than LA.

 

So +51 in goals difference vs LA. 

 

Last season Campbell went 31 games 2.28 gaa .928 sv%... LA sucked so bad this year its no surprise his numbers went down. I expect him to play well on a competitive team in Totonto. 

 

Solid trade. A solid backup goalie and a very good abrasive defensively responsible 2 time Cup Champ going into UFA. He's motivated to play his best hockey as he's looking to cash in on next contract. 

 

For a couple of 3rd rounders.

 

Odds are 70% of 3rd rounders never play in NHL and these will be both late 3rd rounders. So even less odds for them. 

 

Good trade. I'll leave it there. We can come back discuss it at end of regular season if you wish. 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WHL rocks

[Crimson]

 

10 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

these will be both late 3rd rounders. So even less odds for them. 

I was with you for the most part up until this.  The Leafs are far from a lock to make the playoffs.

[oldnews]

9 hours ago, The Great 8 said:

I don’t think people realize that the leafs have allowed more goals than the kings this year and have allowed the 3rd most goals in the league. Campbell barely posted a .900 save % on a better defensive team I doubt he’ll be much help. They need two way forwards and defensive defencemen.

Not realize it?  Most of us were predicting that last summer.

 

Correction:  Some of us. (the Leaf fluffer element on these boards is significant).

 

But I agree with your following point - adding a backup upgrade makes sense, however, he's still going to get peppered if they don't tighten up as a team in fornt of him.

 

 

On that note:

The Leafs are sitting in 10th place in the East, with the four teams in front of them holding games in hand.

The Kyle Dubas honeymoon is over - he's about to start feeling the heat.

Somewhere Mike Babcock is smiling on his way to the bank.

Edited February 6, 2020 by oldnews

[PhillipBlunt]

21 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Clifford has 2 Stanley Cups. He's played more playoff games than Moore has played regular season NHL games. He's a solid defensive forward plays an abrasive game. 

 

Moore is a warm body going to LA for roster and cap purposes. A throw in with zero value. LA needed a player back and the cap needed to balance out. With Moore out Hutch sent to AHL and LA eating 50% of Clifford's salary the cap does not change at all for Leafs. Exact same dollars out as coming in. 

 

Next year is a long ways away. We'll see what happens with their cap in summer..Trades at the draft, UFAs,  rookies etc. a lot will change. Just like for the Canucks. 

 

TML were 9-10-3 with Babcock. 

 

They are 19-9-3 under Keefe. One of best records in NHL over that span. Their #1 goalie is injured and Hutch sucked. 

 

As far as defense. Leafs have allowed 10 more goals than LA with their #1 Dman out long term and #1 goalie injured . 

 

At the same time they've scored 61 more goals than LA.

 

So +51 in goals difference vs LA. 

 

Last season Campbell went 31 games 2.28 gaa .928 sv%... LA sucked so bad this year its no surprise his numbers went down. I expect him to play well on a competitive team in Totonto. 

 

Solid trade. A solid backup goalie and a very good abrasive defensively responsible 2 time Cup Champ going into UFA. He's motivated to play his best hockey as he's looking to cash in on next contract. 

 

For a couple of 3rd rounders.

 

Odds are 70% of 3rd rounders never play in NHL and these will be both late 3rd rounders. So even less odds for them. 

 

Good trade. I'll leave it there. We can come back discuss it at end of regular season if you wish. 

 

 

 

I think part of the reason Moore went to LA, is that he's from Thousand Oaks.

[WHL rocks]

22 minutes ago, Crimson said:

 

I was with you for the most part up until this.  The Leafs are far from a lock to make the playoffs.

This years pick is from  CBJ . Currently 3rd in Metro. 8-2-1 last 10. Torts will be up for Jack Adams.

 

Leafs are 19-9-3 in last 31 under Keefe. 4th best in NHL in that span. Their #1 dman out LTIR and #1 goalie has missed few games with injury. Hutch sucked so bad or they would likely have 3 more wins this year including last night vs NYR.

 

They'll make the playoffs. Let's see what happens next season when it's Leafs 3rd that goes to LA. That's a year and half away. But with those young stars another year older i dont see them missing playoffs next few years. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WHL rocks

[oldnews]

51 minutes ago, EternalCanuckFan said:

Ceci is a favorite whipping boy based on advanced stats.  The numbers are terrible from what I have seen so who knows, maybe the team will actually perform better without him especially with what should be improved goaltending.  Ceci is one of the few D they have who is able to play a bit of a physical game though, so their blueline is even less physical without him.  Muzzin returning should help at least a little bit, and Sandin has actually been quite good overall.  Considering Liljegren was called up earlier this year, if Ceci is out for awhile then this will be a good test for Liljegren.  The team is very skilled but they are very lacking in sandpaper.  Clifford will help but there's only so much one guy can do.

?

 

45.3% ozone starts  (lowest among their regulars)

49.7% corsi

+8

2.1 on ice goals against per 60 at 5 on 5 is the lowest on the Leafs blueline.

 

Not sure how those are 'terrible numbers'.

 

He also leads their pk at 2:49 / game of ice time.

 

And on that note, Trevor Moore was also 4th among their forwards in pk ice time......Clifford does not kill penalties.

Mitch Marner leads their pk forwards....and when push comes to shove, Tavares is their principal 'shutdown' center.   Odd build to say the least.

[Sean Monahan]

1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

Thats right. Toronto has 2nd most goals in league LA has 2nd least 

 

GF TML 194 LA 133 

GA TML  181 LA 171

 

GF + 61 goals for Leafs.

GA only 10 goal difference. 

 

That's why i say Campbell will get goal support in Toronto and put up more wins. He'll play a much better game in Toronto and his record will show. 

What I’m saying is Campbell has pretty pedestrian numbers this year on a defensively better team. How will he fare in Toronto? Tough to say, goalies can be hard to predict. Time will tell. 

1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Oh. Didn't know that Ceci was injured. Isn't Ceci supposed to be really overrated?

Leafs fans hate him. Dubas loves him based on analytics and has said as much on the record. Most Leafs fans blame their underwhelming season on Ceci and Hutch. 

[rekker]

6 minutes ago, oldnews said:

?

 

45.3% ozone starts  (lowest among their regulars)

49.7% corsi

+8

2.1 on ice goals against per 60 at 5 on 5 is the lowest on the Leafs blueline.

 

Not sure how those are 'terrible numbers'.

 

He also leads their pk at 2:49 / game of ice time.

 

And on that note, Trevor Moore was also 4th among their forwards in pk ice time......Clifford does not kill penalties.

Mitch Marner leads their pk forwards....and when push comes to shove, Tavares is their principal 'shutdown' center.   Odd build to say the least.

Yip, odd build. So much talk about the Leafs backups, D, etc. How about some of the blame on AM? He is so weak in his own zone. His board battles are giggle worth considering his size. I see night after night where he gets beat by opponents on one on one battles in his zone. Yip, he scores goals but for 11.5 per,  should he not be a true number one center?

[rekker]

2 minutes ago, Sean Monahan said:

How will he fare in Toronto? Tough to say, goalies can be hard to predict

Not difficult to predict at all. TSN has already declared the trade a big win for Dubas and the Leafs, lol.

[oldnews]

Since I - no need for disclosure here if anyone has read my posts of the past - don't care for Dubas' build or the Leafs approach...

I look at deals like this as if I were a Leafs fan - ie would I be happy with this deal?

 

I don't really care for the deal from a Leafs perspective, for various reasons:

 

1)  I like Clifford as a player, however, I like Moore more - he's younger, more versatile, he kills penalties on a team where Marner leads the team in that category....and he has a year remaining at 775k before becoming an RFA, on a team that is tight up against the cap for the forseeable future.

2) the price they paid for Clifford - involviing a conditional pick - is too steep imo - and as much grit as Clifford brings, I think they sought the wrong asset here.  The only way I see this as a 'right' move is if it is followed by subsequent moves for the 'right' players.  As a team they lack the ability to defend - I'm not sure Clifford enhances that (he is not a penalty killer, he's also not a dzone start specialist type forward) - and at the same time, I'm not sure Campbell enhances that either - making saves makes a difference, but it does not tilt the ice in the other direction.

3) Campbell is a good and necessary pickup - but I probably would have limited this move to him and minimized the asset costs in the process.  As it stands, he represents an additional million in cap hit next season.

4) So for me the bottom line is this - the Leafs spent a couple more picks - and gave up a young defensive forward who is an RFA - for an expiring Clifford and a backup.  One of those were a principal need (where they did not manage to send a goaltending contract back) - the other leaves it open that they'll probably have to spend yet more assets to make them realistically competitive down the stretch.

5) The wisdom of moving multiple picks - for a team facing a continued cap crunch....granted, this is their 'window' - however the more moves they make of this nature, that window conceivably shortens....so the Titanic metaphor might not be a bad one.

 

Do Clifford or Campbell make the team better able to defend? 

That would be my principal concern.  Was 'toughness' a principal need?   I might think so, but that they think so would seem to be a change of course.

The case can be made that Campbell was a principal need - however, it still looks like a number of 'principal needs' remain - while their asset-base and their cap flexibility continue to be squeezed.

This deal should probably be assessed based on what they do next?  If they don't manage to add more ability to defend....it'll (the cost of Clifford) look like yet another fairly pricey rental (ala Plekanec and Boyle) - of players that appeared - and turned out to be - secondary needs.

Edited February 6, 2020 by oldnews

[oldnews]

14 minutes ago, rekker said:

Not difficult to predict at all. TSN has already declared the trade a big win for Dubas and the Leafs, lol.

I guess they have a new "trade all the picks"  mantra.

 

That Marleau 1st is looking like it could hurt more than they anticipated.

 

Is this deal enough?  I don't think so.  I think they should prepare for more pain / spending of their futures.

 

On that note, I'm surprised they cut a deal with Los Angeles and did not get Martinez, or even a cheap placeholder like Hutton (if in fact Ceci is now also injured).  I guess the reality is that they cannot afford, or find the space for a Martinez, and even a Hutton 1.5 million cap hit might be too tight.... I'll be curious what they do next.

 

[oldnews]

Listening to the Leafs whine about injuries is priceless.

 

Some of us were predicting they'd get ventilated this year, whether healthy or not - and they have - their approach is to outscore their problems.

 

Some of us also predicted that they were a key injury or two away from plummeting into also-ran status.

 

Depth is a keyp part of any build - and they were skating on exceptionally thin ice in that sense.

 

Are we now supposed to feel sorry for them as the forseeable problems come home to roost?

[oldnews]

41 minutes ago, Sean Monahan said:

What I’m saying is Campbell has pretty pedestrian numbers this year on a defensively better team. How will he fare in Toronto? Tough to say, goalies can be hard to predict. Time will tell. 

Leafs fans hate him. Dubas loves him based on analytics and has said as much on the record. Most Leafs fans blame their underwhelming season on Ceci and Hutch. 

here you have a fairly common theme....

 

what the public perceives to be 'analytics' is hopelessly oversimplified - and sandbags any player whose role is tilted towards defensive/dzone start/shutdown minutes.

 

you see it all the time in this market as well.

 

Ceci's numbers are nothing resembling "bad".  But it's not surprising that he's 'hated' in Toronto - that market would appear to know next to nothing about building a grown up hockey team, ie capable of playing a two way game.  It's certainly 'innovative' - using 10+ million dollar forwards as your prinicpal penalty  killers - but is it that wise?  ie Marner has one shorthanded assist this year - that's it - and what happens to the Leafs, for example, if he injures himself blocking a shot on the penalty kill?

 

In any event, the Leafs had far bigger problems than the play of Ceci...and if they 'hate' him so much - what do they have to thank for that?

 

Btw - that Zaitsev deal - that sent Connor Brown to the Senators....

 

Brown leads Senator forwards in penalty killing ice time.

He has the 2nd lowest ozone starts (39.6%) of Senator forwards.

He plays over 20 minutes a night (10th in the NHL).

He's their second leading scorer in that context.  He leads the team in takeaways.

Perhaps the kind of forward the Leafs could use lolz.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by oldnews

[EP Phone Home]

Looks like leafs have slim pick-ins with their draft allotment. Would be delicious if they missed the playoffs. Mmm Maple flavoured tears yum yum.  No 1st no 3rd no 5th and no playoffs would be something to behold and hear all the media try to spin and backpedal. It will be glorious if it comes to fruition.

Edited February 6, 2020 by EP Phone Home

[oldnews]

32 minutes ago, EP Phone Home said:

Looks like leafs have slim pick-ins with their draft allotment. Would be delicious if they missed the playoffs. Mmm Maple flavoured tears yum yum.  No 1st no 3rd no 5th and no playoffs would be something to behold and hear all the media try to spin and backpedal. It will be glorious if it comes to fruition

but who needs prospects when the #proper-rebuild is complete and you have 4 forwards worth 40 million?  everyone knows that core-forwards = championships!

 

What I don't understand is how the "next Blackhawks" find themselves in 10th place?

[WHL rocks]

Just now, Sean Monahan said:

What I’m saying is Campbell has pretty pedestrian numbers this year on a defensively better team. How will he fare in Toronto? Tough to say, goalies can be hard to predict. Time will tell. 

 

Did you watch Leafs vs NYR last night. Look at that goal Hutch allowed. An AHL goalie shouldn't allow that goal. If that was Campbell no way he allows that goal. Leafs had chance to win if they had Campbell instead of Hutch.

 

Look at Doughty's numbers this year. They are no where near where they would be if he was on a good team.

 

When a team sucks all player's numbers suffer. His numbers will be better on Leafs. At the very least he'll be a good backup and help Leafs win a few more games than Hutch would.

 

3rd rounder is nothing. Unlikely to turn out to be a full time backup like Campbell with a 3rd. 70% chance a 3rd doesn't even make the NHL.

 

He's signed 2 more years after this at 1.65 mill per. Can't get much better.

 

Last year 31 games 2.29 gaa .929sv% .. 

 

Time will tell. Let's revisit this thread at end of season. 

 

Great pickup for a cheap price imo. If they wanted the Russian kid Georgiev from NYR it would have cost Kapanen.

He doesn't have much better numbers. But perhaps projected to be better in a few yrs.

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by WHL rocks

[Tower102]

7 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Did you watch Leafs vs NYR last night. Look at that goal Hutch allowed. An AHL goalie shouldn't allow that goal. If that was Campbell no way he allows that goal. Leafs had chance to win if they had Campbell instead of Hutch.

 

Look at Doughty's numbers this year. They are no where near where they would be if he was on a good team.

 

When a team sucks all player's numbers suffer. His numbers will be better on Leafs. At the very least he'll be a good backup and help Leafs win a few more games than Hutch would.

 

3rd rounder is nothing. Unlikely to turn out to be a full time backup like Campbell with a 3rd. 70% chance a 3rd doesn't even make the NHL.

 

He's signed 2 more years after this at 1.65 mill per. Can't get much better.

 

Last year 31 games 2.29 gaa .929sv% .. 

 

Time will tell. Let's revisit this thread at end of season. 

 

Great pickup for a cheap price imo. If they wanted the Russian kid Georgiev from NYR it would have cost Kapanen.

He doesn't have much better numbers. But perhaps projected to be better in a few yrs.

 

 

 

A 3rd rounder for Campbell would have been fine. But it was 2 3rds with a chance of one becoming a 2nd. 

 

If you want to look at the trade as Campbell = a 3rd thats fine but then they lose the Moore+ 3rd/2nd for Clifford. 

 

For me Moore=Clifford. Clifford has the experience, Moore has the PK time and better contract.

[Sean Monahan]

1 hour ago, oldnews said:

here you have a fairly common theme....

 

what the public perceives to be 'analytics' is hopelessly oversimplified - and sandbags any player whose role is tilted towards defensive/dzone start/shutdown minutes.

 

 

 

What I’m saying is the fan base hates him based on the eye test and Dubas loves him based on analytics. Their fans don’t seem to think he’s even an NHL caliber d man, or at least not one that should be in your top 6.