A broken down look at the Canucks chance of making the playoffs, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, - 9th

[Arrow 1983]

The reason I am about to write this post is, because I believe the expectations in some Canuck fans have gone way up. After reading the last PGT I feel that some fan reactions are not based on the fear the Canucks will not make the playoffs, but it is more based on the fear the Canucks may not make the top 3 in the division and in other fans is based on the disappointment that they may not win the Division.

 

THE GOOD NEWS

 

Vancouver has played 60 games and has 70 point

 

Nash 60 games played and 66 points, Vancouver hold the advantage here, no games in hand by either team but Nash has to make up 4 point

 

Win 62 games and 69 points, Vancouver holds the advantage here with 2 games in hand and 1 point ahead

 

Ari 64 games played and 68 points, Vancouver holds a massive advantage here 4 games in hand and 2 point ahead, I have all but declared Ari out of the playoff race the odds for Ari look dismal 

 

That leaves Calgary 62 games played and 68 points, Vancouver hold the Advantage here 2 games in hand and 2 points ahead

 

In this scenario all Vancouver has to do is out pace Calgary and they will clinch a playoff spot by make the top 3 in the division, at this point they could lose 2 more games then Calgary and still have a 2 point cushion, Vancouver could go 0-2-1 worse then Calgary They would still clinch a top 3 spot with a 1point cushion. If they went 0-3-0 worse then Calgary then the Tie breakers would come into effect.

 

THE BAD NEWS

 

I call this the bad news but really it is the worse case scenario

 

If Win, Nash and Calgary go on Massive winning streaks and Vancouver begins to falter and goes on a  massive losing streak Vancouver could end up in 9th place and looking in.

 

Calgary would have to over take Vancouver for 3rd place in the Pacific 

 

Win and Nash would have to both make up the ground and surpass Vancouver

 

If all 3 teams surpass Vancouver then the Canucks would be in 9th place and miss the playoffs

 

THE LIKILIHOOD OF THE WORSE CASE SENARIO HAPPENING

 

What is the likelihood of all the bad things happening

 

Win, and Cal still have games against Vancouver so yes they could make up points that way, but keep in mind teams can make up points on teams they trail but they can not make up games by winning those games head to head. 

example, if Van and Cal where to play tomorrow, Cal has played 62 Van 60 even if Cal wins and gets 2 points, Cal would have played 63 and Van 61 so Van still has 2 games in hand

 

Win and Cal only have 1 game each against Vancouver

 

Nash the only team the Canucks do not have games in hand on, does not play Vancouver again. Therefor, they can not gain points on Vancouver in head to head matches

 

Win, Cal and Nash still have games against each other

 

Cal has 1 game against Nash

 

Cal has 2 games against Win

 

Win has 1 game against Nash

 

each of these games is a loss of 2 or 1 point to the other team that's chasing Vancouver 

 

With all this said it really just begs the question

 

What is the likelihood of all 3 teams Win, Nash and Cal catching fire and Vancouver faltering badly

 

SO WHAT IS LIKELY

 

I would argue there are two likely scenarios 

 

Cal does not catch Vancouver and Vancouver places somewhere in the top 3 

 

Cal catches Vancouver and Vancouver ends up in a wildcard spot 7th or 8th

 

After this is all said, this makes the assumption that Vegas and EDM do not falter

 

Vegas 62 games played 72 points, Vancouver has 2 games in hand but 2 points behind

 

Edm 61 games played 71 points, Vancouver has 1 game in hand but 1 point behind

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2020 by Arrow 1983

[Nuxfanabroad]

You should also factor in Minny(playing better lately, w/coaching change), at 60 gp & 65 pts. Fairly deep roster, nobody on IR.

 

Flamers are key here. Need them to flicker. Quite a few tough matchups left for them:

 

Lost Vegans x2

TBay x2

In Boston

 

Be nice if they & the Desert Mutts can't get it going.

[Arrow 1983]

7 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

You should also factor in Minny(playing better lately, w/coaching change), at 60 gp & 65 pts. Fairly deep roster, nobody on IR.

 

Flamers are key here. Need them to flicker. Quite a few tough matchups left for them:

 

Lost Vegans x2

TBay x2

In Boston

 

Be nice if they & the Desert Mutts can't get it going.

Yup I can do Minny

 

They're  very much in the Nash category 

 

Minny 60 games played, Vancouver has the advantage no games in hand and no head to heads remaining but Vancouver has 5 points ahead

Edited February 22, 2020 by Arrow 1983

[Nuxfanabroad]

The Desert Mutts are SOOOO dangerous here!

 

Having acquired Hall, they're at(approx) 99.5% chance of landing LaFreniere :^(

[Laheys Liquor]

Good thread.

I think we are pretty much on track to clinch.  
To me, P% is the most telling stat - we are 12th in the league in that regard, and 4th in the west, 1st in the Pacific. 

Simply stay at the same P% pace and we coast in, if we dip a bit below our average we still have a good chance at top 3 in the division. 

 

 

Oh almost forgot *knocks on wood*
 

[Canadian]

1 hour ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

The Desert Mutts are SOOOO dangerous here!

 

Having acquired Hall, they're at(approx) 99.5% chance of landing LaFreniere :^(

Hall soon to be traded again 

[Toyotasfan]

Arizona determined not to give up any additional conditional pick to New Jersey for making the playoffs or resigning Hall.

[luckylager]

Canucks need to turn it around. 2 wins in the last 8 games is ugly AF.

 

There's enough games remaining to completely $&!# the bed. If we continue on with this recent trend and go 5-12-5...

 

 

[wai_lai416]

they play 60 mins every night? good chance.. they show up late and require their goalie to stand on their head and burn them out? prolly not.. even during their 8 game winning streak they weren't showing up every game and the goalie stood on their head many nights.. and after the all star break.. they've only started playing after falling behind.. not a recipe for success.. if markstrom is no where near perfect.. can kiss the playoff good bye.. as for op saying even if the other team win their head to head against us we still have 2 games in hand blah blah.. ya u gotta win those 2 games.. that's why head to head games are always 4 point swings.. march schedule is tough as hell prolly one of the worse in the league.. 16 games in 31 nights.. 

[Arrow 1983]

1 hour ago, wai_lai416 said:

they play 60 mins every night? good chance.. they show up late and require their goalie to stand on their head and burn them out? prolly not.. even during their 8 game winning streak they weren't showing up every game and the goalie stood on their head many nights.. and after the all star break.. they've only started playing after falling behind.. not a recipe for success.. if markstrom is no where near perfect.. can kiss the playoff good bye.. as for op saying even if the other team win their head to head against us we still have 2 games in hand blah blah.. ya u gotta win those 2 games.. that's why head to head games are always 4 point swings.. march schedule is tough as hell prolly one of the worse in the league.. 16 games in 31 nights.. 

yup some people will always be doomsayers

 

Personally even if they don't make the playoffs I will not be disappointed the Canucks have made this season very fun to watch.

 

No matter what happens the Canucks are going to be playing meaningful games till the end of the season cause that's the position they have put themselves in.

 

As they say the playoffs is just gravy they're not cup contenders and I don't have very high expectations for their playoff chances. To me the playoffs just mean a few more games. Any playoff success  is just the cherry on top.

Edited February 22, 2020 by Arrow 1983

[wai_lai416]

36 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

yup some people will always be doomsayers

 

Personally even if they don't make the playoffs I will not be disappointed the Canucks have made this season very fun to watch.

 

No matter what happens the Canucks are going to be playing meaningful games till the end of the season cause that's the position they have put themselves in.

 

As they say the playoffs is just gravy they're not cup contenders and I don't have very high expectations for their playoff chances. To me the playoffs just mean a few more games. Any playoff success  is just the cherry on top.

Ya but they better make the playoff as they are mortgaging the future atm for it and who knows what more move they'll do.. if they dont make it Benning and green will be gone..

[Lazurus]

16 hours ago, Arrow 1983 said:

18 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

16 games in 31 nights.. 

yup some people will always be doomsayers

 

Personally even if they don't make the playoffs I will not be disappointed the Canucks have made this season very fun to watch.

 

No matter what happens the Canucks are going to be playing meaningful games till the end of the season cause that's the position they have put themselves in.

 

As they say the playoffs is just gravy they're not cup contenders and I don't have very high expectations for their playoff chances. To me the playoffs just mean a few more games. Any playoff success  is just the cherry on top.

16 games in 30 days, 4 back to backs 3 of them on the road, only 4 games vs teams out of playoff contention, a tough schedule.

 

Is that doomsayer stuff?

 

I do expect a lot more than just an appearance for the cost.

[Tracksuit]

Nucks 61 gp on pace for 96 points 

8th place 61 gp on pace for 92

 

i bit of breathing room 

yotes are the ones in trouble 65 gp 70 points on pace for 88pts

 

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by Tracksuit

[aqua59]

It's so hard to predict with so many teams being even in the standings. A injury here or there changes the picture over night.