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Canuck D After the TDL

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JamesB

By JamesB
in Canucks Talk

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BPA Canucks Star

BPA

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, the grinder said:

well of course we did nothing to fix the defense  , because we had to go a get a back up goalie  which cost us our last  trading chip that 3rd rounder , so  I hope big nikita comes back  soon

You got duped with that fake twitter.  Canucks did not give up a 3rd rounder. 

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DownUndaCanuck Canucks Franchise Player

DownUndaCanuck

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The personel aren't the issue, it's the system. We've got 7 great defencemen, 5 of whom can play 20 minutes comfortably. This team is deep, and there's Rafferty in Utica as a rookie just about leading the league in scoring not to mention Juolevi and Brisebois. That's 3 quality call ups who probably aren't NHL ready but are close. We haven't had 10 solid defencemen in a long time.

 

Green's offensive system exposes them though, looks great for guys like Hughes but makes it hard on guys like Stecher and our goalies.

 

I think we need to change our system up a big now Marky is out, rather than personel. If we've got a 2nd forechecker, hang both D back. If we've got one defenceman up in the rush, hang one forward back. We too commonly go all in on rushes, which was great against a tired Boston team, but doesn't always work.

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Patel Bure Canucks Second-Line

Patel Bure

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15 hours ago, JamesB said:

Okay, the trade deadline has come and gone and the Canuck D has the same top 7 guys now as it has had pretty much all season, although not in exactly the same order. Here is my read on the situation.

 

1. I am very happy that the Canucks did nothing to the D at the TDL. It would, of course, always be great to add someone really good, but that is either impossible to do at the TDL or too expensive.

 

2. In this case, there was a lot of talk about trading Stecher and maybe adding Tyson Barrie. The rumored asking price for Barrie was a first round pick AND a prospect. That is of course a ridiculous price so it is no surprise he did not move. (Barrie would have been a pure rental.)

 

3. On to Stecher. I was pleased to hear Benning say in his post-TDL press conference that he had NOT been shopping Stecher. He said that the Canucks received calls on Stecher and listened, but did not initiate anything. He added that he likes Stecher and commented on his high level of commitment and effort and his contribution to team chemistry. Maybe Benning was shading things a bit but he sounded fairly credible to me and I liked what he said. 

 

4. Some people were saying that the Canucks might want to trade Stecher because he would cost too much to qualify as an RFA and they would risk losing him for nothing as they did with Hutton last year. That argument is ridiculous. Stecher will cost $2.3 million to qualify (less that Hutton would have cost last summer). He has being playing top 4 most of the season and doing a good job, including a long stretch when he and Edler were playing shutdown, although Hughes and Tanev have taken over that role. He has arbitration rights but loves being here and would probably sign at a reasonable cap hit. If you can get a solid top 4 D for 2.3 or even 3 million, that is a great deal and you take it. (Hutton would have cost 2.8 to qualilfy and Stecher is better offensively and defensively than Hutton). And if Stecher won't sign for a reasonable amount he would always be tradeable in the summer (unlike Hutton). Why weaken the defence now? Frankly, I would not trade Stecher as an RFA for Tyson Barrie as a rental straight up as Stecher is better defensively and that is the biggest concern on D right now.

 

5. Benning also talked about Hughes and indicated that he has been good all year but raised his game after the all-star break and just keeps getting better, surprising even Benning by how good he has become. One very important fact is that he and Tanev have taken over the primary shutdown pairing and, despite that, his +/- has improved and his scoring rate has improved. Last year EP had a great year but began to wear down about this point in the season (but still won the Calder easily). Hughes just keeps improving and is now clearly the Calder favorite.

 

6. There is a lot of concern today about Marky's injury. The concern is that the D has been allowing too many high quality chances and that Marky has bailed the team out. Unfortunately, there is a lot of validity to that concern. Here are some numbers. Right now, the Canucks are 12th in NHL in the winning percentage -- solidly in playoff position. They are 8th in goals for per 60 minutes and 13th in goals against per 60. But they are 21st in high danger chances against per 60. And, if we use expected goals against, which is probably the best available measure of defensive performance, it is even worse, as the Canucks are 28th in the league. So, yes, that is a problem.

 

7. Here are the numbers for expected goals against per 60 minutes on ice at 5-on-5 (from Natural Stat Trick). Keep in mind that low is good.

 

Hughes: 2.27

Tanev: 2.51

Stecher: 2.55

Edler: 2.57

Myers: 2.59

Fantenberg: 2.71

Benn: 2.9

 

Okay, Hughes is having a fantastic season DEFENSIVELY as well as offensively. These numbers should really be adjusted for quality of opposition. That would make Hughes look even better. Tanev (his partner) deserves some credit, but Tanev is having a good season in part because of Hughes. And note that Stecher is third. (In fairness, Tanev, Stecher, Edler and Myers are all similar.) If you take quality of opposition into account, Myers would drop a bit and Fantenberg and Benn would drop quite a bit. But Fantenberg is a lot better than Benn.

 

My point here is that by playing Fantenberg instead of Benn and by playing Hughes and Tanev as the shutdown pair, the D has improved. And the addition of Toffoli to the forwards won't hurt, although the EP line was already very good in not allowing many chances against. The Horvat line was also good. The bottom two forward lines have given up a lot of high danger chances per 60 minutes. 

 

8. In the presser, Benning said that Myers has been "excellent" and some of the talking heads said something similar. That is not true. Myers has been okay to pretty good, and was a significant upgrade as the third pairing RD. But the Stecher/Edler pairing has been better than the Myers/Edler pairing was. I would also add that on the PK, Stecher has the best expected goals against per 60 on the team and. in terms of actual goals against per 60 is second after Motte. I would give Stecher more PK minutes.

 

8. In the presser, Benning mentioned MacEwen a couple of times. In terms of expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5, Big Mac is ahead of Virtanen, Roussel, Motte and Schaller (who is now gone). I think Big Mac should be in the line-up. His defensive play has come a long way and of course he contributes a lot to the physical game and can put a few points on the board as well. I assume that Eriksson will stay on the Horvat line for now, but I would seriously consider putting Big Mac in for Roussel, who has struggled this season since coming back from surgery.

 

9. Finally, Benning said that rather than add D from outside at the deadline, he would rather give some guys in Utica a look. That sounds good to me. Rafferty and Brisebois probably both deserve a look.

 

Bottom line: Yes, the D is a concern with Marky out. Hope he is not out long. But the general trend is positive.

Good post.

 

Are the Canucks still allowed to bring in Tryamkin even though the trade deadline has passed?  Perhaps I’m wrong, but I think Tryamkin could be our 4th best defenseman after Hughes, Edler, and Tanev.

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oldnews Canucks Hall-of-Famer

oldnews

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/24/2020 at 5:43 PM, JamesB said:

 playing Hughes and Tanev as the shutdown pair, the D has improved. 

Not sure if serious.

Hughes has easily the most opportune minutes on the blue line....57% ozone starts,  

Stecher 40.7

Edler 43

Tanev 43.9 in

...... Hughes is forming a 'shutdown pairing"?

Only d  on the team that doesn't kill penalties,  but 'shut down'.

 

Reminds me of when sat Shah called EP an elite shutdown center...:wacko:

Edited by oldnews
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