So...next year. Where are we going?

[aGENT]

35 minutes ago, riffraff said:

we have already done this with Miller and Toffoli. There are no picks to trade that will garner help on d.

Doesn't always have to be a pick.

 

Quote

 

trade boeser:  everybody's default answer nowadays.  We finally have a shooter like brock so now let’s trade him.  Oh but he is injured and is now a variable to regain his rookie form.  I love brock.  I hope he comes back 100% healthy and contributes in which case why trade him?  Or if he doesn’t and is no longer the sniper Brock then what do we get for him in a trade?

I think it may actually be Virtanen but who knows? We'll see when we see.

 

Quote

 

i mean as right as you are that everything could work out it’s easily within view to see the chance that this team becomes chronically mediocre going forward.

 

If everything stayed static...sure, I guess. But Benning's not going to just sit on his hands the next two years, prospects aren't going to stop developing, we're not going to stop making trades or signing UFA's etc.

 

Seems I write some version of this EVERY season the last few years  People only seem to see what's right in front of us. A couple years ago, all we had was Boeser and Horvat. EP was a skinny 'who?' to a lot of people when he was drafted. Same story for a lot of folks with Hughes and his 'that's a small body'. Both were 'too small' and 'no guarantee to translate to the NHL'. Virtanen was a 'bust' and we had 'no players in the system'/Utica can't develop players'. People on here were firing Benning all over the place for the lack of players in the system/developing and how he rebuilt 'wrong' 

 

Suddenly all those guys emerge on top of acquiring a guy like Miller and we start seeing an influx of youth in Utica (or on their way soon) and people are like 'playoffs! . Now we struggle a bit as one should expect a young, inconsistent team to and it's 'Fire Benning! Fire Green!' 

 

Things need time to evolve. People need to stop being so panicky and reactionary and let things evolve.

 

'It's a process.'

Edited March 2, 2020 by aGENT

[riffraff]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Doesn't always have to be a pick.

 

I think it may actually be Virtanen but who knows? We'll see when we see.

 

If everything stayed static...sure, I guess. But Benning's not going to just sit on his hands the next two years, prospects aren't going to stop developing, we're not going to stop making trades or signing UFA's etc.

 

Seems I write some version of this EVERY season the last few years  People only seem to see what's right in front of us. A couple years ago, all we had was Boeser and Horvat. EP was a skinny 'who?' to a lot of people when he was drafted. Same story for a lot of folks with Hughes and his 'that's a small body'. Both were 'too small' and 'no guarantee to translate to the NHL'. Virtanen was a 'bust' and we had 'no players in the system'/Utica can't develop players'. People on here were firing Benning all over the place for the lack of players in the system/developing and how he rebuilt 'wrong' 

 

Suddenly all those guys emerge on top of acquiring a guy like Miller and we start seeing an influx of youth in Utica (or on their way soon) and people are like 'playoffs! . Now we struggle a bit as one should expect a young, inconsistent team to and it's 'Fire Benning! Fire Green!' 

 

Things need time to evolve. People need to stop being so panicky and reactionary and let things evolve.

 

'It's a process.'

There is panic for sure.

 

im in the “concerned” camp.

 

im also in the Benning camp.  I really want him to survive to see the fruits of his labour.

 

but yeah.  Legit held breaths imo.

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, riffraff said:

There is panic for sure.

 

im in the “concerned” camp.

 

im also in the Benning camp.  I really want him to survive to see the fruits of his labour.

 

but yeah.  Legit held breaths imo.

Why? Were we not predicted to be a bubble team? Were people expecting our young core to play like consistent +/- 27 year old vets most nights over an 82 game season?

 

aGENT sitting here with zen Buddha face.

 

 

[riffraff]

31 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Why? Were we not predicted to be a bubble team? Were people expecting our young core to play like consistent +/- 27 year old vets most nights over an 82 game season?

 

aGENT sitting here with zen Buddha face.

 

 

 

 

watching the wheels.......fall off by JR

[aGENT]

4 minutes ago, riffraff said:

 

 

watching the wheels.......fall off by JR

Love that song 

 

Wheels aren't falling off...bunch of drama queens on CDC 

[Arrow 1983]

11 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Lol 

Followed the Canucks since you were five? 

Whatever. 
 

But back to my comments, you don’t agree that we have a long list of key FA walking as UFAs and you cite Luongo and the Sedins. Maybe go back a bit further, not much, and get back to me. Actually don’t. Do your thang, I’m good. 
 

You specifically  mentioned Jovo, you couldn't even get the one player you mentioned right jovo was never given a contract offer and  therefore became a ufa.

There is not many Former Canucks in the last 30 years that have left this team as a ufa unless the Canuck manegement wanted them to. 

[Arrow 1983]

11 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Lol 

Followed the Canucks since you were five? 

Whatever. 
 

But back to my comments, you don’t agree that we have a long list of key FA walking as UFAs and you cite Luongo and the Sedins. Maybe go back a bit further, not much, and get back to me. Actually don’t. Do your thang, I’m good. 
 

Honestly there has not been 1 core canuck player that has left as a ufa in the last 30 years unless the Manegment wanted them gone

Bure asked for a trade and so did Kesler but for Kesler he saw the ship was sinking, and we all know why bure left

Edited March 3, 2020 by Arrow 1983

[189lb enforcers?]

2 hours ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Honestly there has not been 1 core canuck player that has left as a ufa in the last 30 years unless the Manegment wanted them gone

Bure asked for a trade and so did Kesler but for Kesler he saw the ship was sinking, and we all know why bure left

I see now, the emphasis on the word, walked, in my stating that there’s been a long list of Core UFAs “walk” that you decided to tackle out of that statement. 
 

There are other ways I could have framed that statement that wouldn’t have left room for syntax or semantics. I think we both know that and both know why you chose to only tackle one aspect, one word actually, out of that statement as to avoid acknowledging or conceding my initial point. 

 

Ohlund, Salo, Morrison, Naslund, Jovo and ... lets jut stop there. 
How much more “core” can we get? 

All “left” as free agents. 
 

Nothing there to misconstrue now, as I’ve reworded it so there is no room for any party to misrepresent facts. 
 

 

PS 

 

Ever been to a kindergarten class? 

My youngest of 3 is in grade 7. I’ve spent lots of time in my kids’ kindergarten classes, reading to the kids, 5 year-old kids. 

 

Not one of those kids would have ever been accused of “following” the Canucks as 5 years-olds, let alone managed to describe the team beyond naming a handful of household names, at best.
 

When you to quoted me earlier that you’ve been following the Canucks since you were 5, I had to laugh. You weren’t following anything at that age except Barney and your moms ass, if you were even that tall yet. 
 

It’s a bitch when somebody distorts your message by keying in on a single word, changing the syntax, to make a point of their own, isn’t it? 

Edited March 3, 2020 by 189lb enforcers?

[Arrow 1983]

44 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

I see now, the emphasis on the word, walked, in my stating that there’s been a long list of Core UFAs “walk” that you decided to tackle out of that statement. 
 

There are other ways I could have framed that statement that wouldn’t have left room for syntax or semantics. I think we both know that and both know why you chose to only tackle one aspect, one word actually, out of that statement as to avoid acknowledging or conceding my initial point. 

 

Ohlund, Salo, Morrison, Naslund, Jovo and ... lets jut stop there. 
How much more “core” can we get? 

All “left” as free agents. 
 

Nothing there to misconstrue now, as I’ve reworded it so there is no room for any party to misrepresent facts. 
 

 

PS 

 

Ever been to a kindergarten class? 

My youngest of 3 is in grade 7. I’ve spent lots of time in my kids’ kindergarten classes, reading to the kids, 5 year-old kids. 

 

Not one of those kids would have ever been accused of “following” the Canucks as 5 years-olds, let alone managed to describe the team beyond naming a handful of household names, at best.
 

When you to quoted me earlier that you’ve been following the Canucks since you were 5, I had to laugh. You weren’t following anything at that age except Barney and your moms ass, if you were even that tall yet. 
 

It’s a bitch when somebody distorts your message by keying in on a single word, changing the syntax, to make a point of their own, isn’t it? 

I have a 4 year old son that could tell you every name on the Canucks he can also tell you who leads the team in points goals and assists

he can also tell you the top 10 scores ranked 1 through 10 on the Canucks and how many points each one has

 

Furthermore, my 4 year old son can even tell you who the top 10 league leaders are in goals and points and he would list them from 1 through 10

 

I think I would say he follows the Canucks and the NHL at 4 years of age

 

and so does my 2 and a half year old son who stays up till 9 pm to watch the first 2 periods of each game  

[mll]

Extending Markstrom should probably be the priority.

 

CSA Hockey is probably the next level of advanced stats out there.  They've tracked every play sequence that has led to a shot on goal.  They capture context.  They know whether there was a screen with how many players, whether there was a passing play, whether it was a 2on1, 3on1, whether it was off the face-off, off the rush etc.  They know the probability that a given play sequence has historically resulted in a goal.

 

By mid-February Markstrom had saved the team some 22 goals above expected.   

 

CSA is proprietary so information is rarely available.  Easier accessible stats like Natural Stat Trick are not as elaborate as they are based off data points, and can't capture context other than shot location and make some assumption on rush chances.  They are often used as proxy.  CBJ even posts the Natural Stat Trick numbers on their Jumbotron during games.   Natural Stat Trick has the Canucks towards the bottom in expected goals against at 5v5.  Heatmaps show that the Canucks allow above average shots from the main scoring areas.  SportlogIQ's video tracking software has Markstrom top-5 in goals saved above expected.

 

Re-modelling the defence might not yield much better results if it's more of a system issue rather than personnel.  Most of the advanced stats numbers are suggesting that the Canucks are operating in one of the worse defensive environment in the league.

 

Barry Trotz thinks defence is the easiest thing to fix.  He says it's not skilled based.  For him it's about work ethic and character.  Although he didn't say it, he's likely also implying systems.    

 

Some here are pointing out the shortcomings of Green's approach.   Benning and his crew are watching the same games.  Either they feel it's a non issue or they'll address it.  Under WD they asked him to adjust systems and brought in Doug Jarvis to help him out.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by mll

[Baggins]

16 hours ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

I see now, the emphasis on the word, walked, in my stating that there’s been a long list of Core UFAs “walk” that you decided to tackle out of that statement. 
 

There are other ways I could have framed that statement that wouldn’t have left room for syntax or semantics. I think we both know that and both know why you chose to only tackle one aspect, one word actually, out of that statement as to avoid acknowledging or conceding my initial point. 

 

Ohlund, Salo, Morrison, Naslund, Jovo and ... lets jut stop there. 
How much more “core” can we get? 

All “left” as free agents. 
 

Nothing there to misconstrue now, as I’ve reworded it so there is no room for any party to misrepresent facts. 
 

 

PS 

 

Ever been to a kindergarten class? 

My youngest of 3 is in grade 7. I’ve spent lots of time in my kids’ kindergarten classes, reading to the kids, 5 year-old kids. 

 

Not one of those kids would have ever been accused of “following” the Canucks as 5 years-olds, let alone managed to describe the team beyond naming a handful of household names, at best.
 

When you to quoted me earlier that you’ve been following the Canucks since you were 5, I had to laugh. You weren’t following anything at that age except Barney and your moms ass, if you were even that tall yet. 
 

It’s a bitch when somebody distorts your message by keying in on a single word, changing the syntax, to make a point of their own, isn’t it? 

Ohland was past his 'best before date'. Zero goals and 18 assists in 139 games for Tampa. Morrison a shadow of the WCE period. Naslund told Gillis he was moving on after the season. And Jovo was after the first year under the cap and we were up against it.. There was no room to give him a raise.

 

Playoff teams lose players to free agency every year. We're not immune to that. Even non-playoff teams let players walk as UFA's. We're no different there either. If your expectation is "nobody leaves Vancouver for nothing" you'll be sorely disappointed. It happens to every team.

[189lb enforcers?]

1 hour ago, Baggins said:

Ohland was past his 'best before date'. Zero goals and 18 assists in 139 games for Tampa. Morrison a shadow of the WCE period. Naslund told Gillis he was moving on after the season. And Jovo was after the first year under the cap and we were up against it.. There was no room to give him a raise.

 

Playoff teams lose players to free agency every year. We're not immune to that. Even non-playoff teams let players walk as UFA's. We're no different there either. If your expectation is "nobody leaves Vancouver for nothing" you'll be sorely disappointed. It happens to every team.

What are you conflating here? 
Is this a Red Herring? 
You’re a wise old wizard, but give a guy some credit, will ya?

 

I have no skin in the position-game of why key/core UFAs leave Vancouver, only that they do. 
 

 

[Baggins]

39 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

What are you conflating here? 
Is this a Red Herring? 
You’re a wise old wizard, but give a guy some credit, will ya?

 

I have no skin in the position-game of why key/core UFAs leave Vancouver, only that they do. 
 

 

Then what is your point in bringing it up when if you know it happens with every team? 

[189lb enforcers?]

On 3/1/2020 at 12:30 PM, 189lb enforcers? said:

Until the EP and QH window closes, or before if they walk like most of our core UFAs have in the past, which is a surprisingly long list (Think Jovo, etc) I suspect this team stays in the middle ground. Sounds good enough for playoffs and that seems like it was always the goal of this era, which who can complain?

@Baggins

 

This is what I opened my first comment with. 

The OP asked a question, I gave my perspective. 

[Baggins]

22 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

@Baggins

 

This is what I opened my first comment with. 

The OP asked a question, I gave my perspective. 

Well Jovo is the only quality one I can think of that walked while in his prime. The others you specified were in decline. So what surprisingly long list? The rest were on the decline.

 

EP and QH could easily be around 12 to 15 year yet and I would say their window hasn't opened yet and is at least decade away from closing. There will be a boatload of comings and goings during that time. So I'm not sure what your point is.

[189lb enforcers?]

13 minutes ago, Baggins said:

Well Jovo is the only quality one I can think of that walked while in his prime. The others you specified were in decline. So what surprisingly long list? The rest were on the decline.

 

EP and QH could easily be around 12 to 15 year yet and I would say their window hasn't opened yet and is at least decade away from closing. There will be a boatload of comings and goings during that time. So I'm not sure what your point is.

Into the weeds, over what? 
 

The window is open as long as QH and EP (and whomever else becomes the core) are here. Agreed. 
 

Maybe theywill fade into oblivion or maybe they will hit the road as UFAs. 

I think it’s a surprisingly long list. You think what you like. 
 

I hope that any future pending a UFA is sold off before they can walk. The sample list I gave should have been worth it’s weight in 1st rounders and then some. 

 

[Junkyard Dog]

1 hour ago, Baggins said:

Well Jovo is the only quality one I can think of that walked while in his prime. The others you specified were in decline. So what surprisingly long list? The rest were on the decline.

 

EP and QH could easily be around 12 to 15 year yet and I would say their window hasn't opened yet and is at least decade away from closing. There will be a boatload of comings and goings during that time. So I'm not sure what your point is.

I don't think they will sign that high out of their ELC.

 

Hughes has zero rights in his RFA year and defenseman never go that high off of their ELC.

 

Petey's been good but so far he hasn't proven worth 10+. If it weren't for Miller his production would be lower. I do think we should lock of Petey before he takes that next step like Eichel and Mackinnon did.

[canuck73_3]

6 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

I don't think they will sign that high out of their ELC.

 

Hughes has zero rights in his RFA year and defenseman never go that high off of their ELC.

 

Petey's been good but so far he hasn't proven worth 10+. If it weren't for Miller his production would be lower. I do think we should lock of Petey before he takes that next step like Eichel and Mackinnon did.

The only difference with MacKinnon is he knowingly took under market value to keep the Avs competitive and already stated he will do so again next deal. 

[Junkyard Dog]

Just now, canuck73_3 said:

The only difference with MacKinnon is he knowingly took under market value to keep the Avs competitive and already stated he will do so again next deal. 

Buffalo also hands out big contracts like nothing AKA Skinner. Eichel turned out well for them though.

 

If Canucks were smart they'd sign Petey long-term this off-season where they can get him lower than 10M for sure. That way they don't risk him potentially taking that next step next year and having to pay him more.

[DefCon1]

On 3/1/2020 at 11:35 AM, Got the Babych said:

It's been a fun year so far. What really worries me is that everyone seems to be assuming that just because this season was an improvement on last, next year we will be even better. That's not necessarily how it goes. Progress is not linear. Where is the improvement coming from?

We are very likely losing a couple of key roster players. You know what we're keeping ALL of? The deadweight. No disrespect to all the players we have that are not performing up to their contracts (they are probably better at hockey than me), but we have way too many.

And guess what happens to teams that go all in to "win now"? They pay the price in subsequent years. That's why good clubs don't do it during a (albeit long and painful) rebuild. You trade picks and prospects when you are already a contender or on the verge, not when your goal is making the playoffs.

The cupboards are back to pretty bare. Our good "prospects" are already on the big club. Podz is legit, I'd say (for the season after next). But really no other guaranteed full time NHLers in the pipeline. Statistically a couple will make it, hopefully that's true.

So we're counting on improvements in our current core to take us to the next level? Seems like a lot to ask:

     Hughes: Seems likely to improve

     Petey: Will probably progress, but I don't see any big leaps coming

     BB6: Has rounded out his overall game this year. Hopefully find his shot again, but I think we know what we have now.

     Bo: a perfect 2nd line center. Not likely to see significant improvements

     Miller: he's peaking and he's amazing. We just pray the peak lasts.

     Marky: see Miller.

     Virt: maybe another baby step

     Pearson: hopefully maintain, I doubt it

     LE: signs point to a bounce back 25 goal season

Not giving up on this year, but we're not going far even if we make the playoffs.

What is the path to the Cup from where we are?

seriously are you worried about next year? Hoglander, Joulevi, Rathbone, Lind, Tryamkin, Rafferty, possibly Woo...Not sure why you are worried as we have plenty of prospects...the year after that is when Podkolzin returns. Am not worried since our top 6 forward is stacked and if we sign Toffoli, it will make us a much deeper team.

Miller-Pettersson-Toffoli

Pearson-Horvat-Boeser

Hoglander-Gaudette-Virtanen

Motte-Beagle-Mckewan

 

Thats a more improved forward group with a full season of Toffoli, and Hoglander, probably an improved Petey. Get rid of the liabilities in Roussel, LE, and Sutter, and we would be an even better team. Id give up a first along with LE to Seattle if we need cap space. Probably try and trade Roussel, Baertschi and Sutter this summer.