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NBA officially suspends season

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12 hours ago, samurai said:

it spreads easily but so does the common flu - they do not know how fast but the overwhelming majority of people recover from it.  The issue is that gov't do not have the health facilities to treat it.    We live in a world of safetyism.  

Flu has an R0 of ~1/3rd of covid..... not to mention not a single one of us has developed immunity to covid 

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4 hours ago, 250Integra said:

Gobert is an idiot. Apparently Donovan Mitchell has tested positive as well now.

Apparently, the Raptors have been asked to self-isolate, pending test results. They played the Jazz a few nights ago and OG got in a scuffle with Gobert....

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

A tiny percentage of the population has died from it, really. 

I don't know what the situation is in Japan but in NA, we really have no idea how extensive the infection has spread but we do know that we are not equipped in Canada to deal with any where near the levels of illness that Italy and S. Korea have seen.

The Americans are more focused on keeping the number of reported cases low because they think it is more of a PR problem for the president.

What they have seen in countries with similar heath care systems as Canada is that 20% of cases are get significantly ill and 10% need ICUs.  Some Epidemiologists are predicting if we don't take these kind of precautions 60-70% of the population will get this virus.

Lets assume that this is all reactionary and the numbers are only 10% of that with only 6% of the population getting it and only 1% need ICU and ventilation.  Ontario has 15 million people, which would give about 8700 people needing ventilation.  After SARS went through Ontario an effort was made to make sure we have capacity for overflow on ventilators and with a lot of effort there are an extra 200 ventilators above usual required capacity for operations and those ill for other reasons.  

This doesn't even consider that the government has always used the foolish idea that we need to plan for the median when it comes to beds and spaces.  We don't even have the capacity to put the extra 8700 people in beds much less on ventilators.

Every day we pause and don't take these actions it gets harder to mitigate and these numbers look worse than this.  

Canada is lucky in that we have a lot of land and space, it should with a lot more leadership be easier to control here than other countries but this requires leadership and less of this minimizing of the seriousness of this disease.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-march-10-2020-1.5492134/infectious-diseases-specialist-warns-of-overkill-when-cancelling-events-over-coronavirus-fears-1.5492144?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar&fbclid=IwAR0pptmWEujhhfdbjBVAb8gPercvv-w4WvK0LRrfNgoINmKmH1rJNd_3apo

Edited by samurai

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4 hours ago, samurai said:

That is not good advice.  He is also not very definitive at any point and is more concerned with the financial damages, not the flooding of the health care system.

If you had asked me last week I wasn't that worried but as we get reliable data it is a lot more worrisome.

I am not trying to push fear I am trying to say that it needs to be taken very seriously and that we do need to modify our behaviours in the short term.  

Their is very good guidance going to the docs and we are making a concerted effort to be doing more virtual care.  I know I am deferring things like annual health exams and pap smears that are easily defer-able.  I am also trying to keep my complex patients and elderly out of our clinic for anything that doesn't need to be seen urgently like prescription refills. 

My kids spring break just got extended to three weeks and it is the right thing to do. 

At the end of the day it may not be so bad in Canada and there will be trolls saying we did all of these things for nothing but if that happens it will be an amazing success story.

 

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22 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

That is not good advice.  He is also not very definitive at any point and is more concerned with the financial damages, not the flooding of the health care system.

If you had asked me last week I wasn't that worried but as we get reliable data it is a lot more worrisome.

I am not trying to push fear I am trying to say that it needs to be taken very seriously and that we do need to modify our behaviours in the short term.  

Their is very good guidance going to the docs and we are making a concerted effort to be doing more virtual care.  I know I am deferring things like annual health exams and pap smears that are easily defer-able.  I am also trying to keep my complex patients and elderly out of our clinic for anything that doesn't need to be seen urgently like prescription refills. 

My kids spring break just got extended to three weeks and it is the right thing to do. 

At the end of the day it may not be so bad in Canada and there will be trolls saying we did all of these things for nothing but if that happens it will be an amazing success story.

 

Here in Japan they closed all the schools.  At that time there were 2 cases in the North involving students.  One was a family member of a father who was Wuhan and showed no symptoms on return.  The other I don't recall.

 

The PM at the time openly stated that it was his decision based on his 'feeling'.   He stated during debate that experts were not consulted.  The Ministry of Education was not consulted. 

 

Here schools are extremely proactive in containing sickness. Monitoring student hygiene including making sure students regularly wash their hands.  In addition everything is regularly wiped down.  In my daughters class in early January they had 6 kids in a few days come down with the flu.  The school sent her class home for a few days  - the rest of the school stayed open.  One other class was sent home - that class was in a different part of the school.  The whole school again was thoroughly wiped down.  It did not spread.  Schools have high amplification if they don't manage things properly.   Now going on three weeks children and parents are starting to feel the impact of this.  I won't get into the details but try and guess what kind of impact it has on single mothers . One mother has to work and her while her 7 year old son is home looking after the 4 year old - is that okay? Kids at primary school were getting healthy lunches, now many kids are not getting that as well - parents aren't home or cannot afford it.  I saw one situation where 8 kids were cramped in a small room with video games and their lunch was instant noodles.  Parents had to work so these kids couldn't even go outside.  Is that a better environment than school?

 

In Tokyo people ride the trains everyday (i live there) - about 40 million passengers daily.  Numerous measures have been taken and that appears to be working.  The advice from the doctor is sound.   What you are talking about is 'safetyism' which is assuming not short of 100% is acceptable.   In the meantime I was at a downtown department store in a cramped area and it was absolutely packed with elderly people, many in their late 80s.   So how effective can a lock down be if the must susceptible group is out on the town.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, samurai said:

Here in Japan they closed all the schools.  At that time there were 2 cases in the North involving students.  One was a family member of a father who was Wuhan and showed no symptoms on return.  The other I don't recall.

 

The PM at the time openly stated that it was his decision based on his 'feeling'.   He stated during debate that experts were not consulted.  The Ministry of Education was not consulted. 

 

Here schools are extremely proactive in containing sickness. Monitoring student hygiene including making sure students regularly wash their hands.  In addition everything is regularly wiped down.  In my daughters class in early January they had 6 kids in a few days come down with the flu.  The school sent her class home for a few days  - the rest of the school stayed open.  One other class was sent home - that class was in a different part of the school.  The whole school again was thoroughly wiped down.  It did not spread.  Schools have high amplification if they don't manage things properly.   Now going on three weeks children and parents are starting to feel the impact of this.  I won't get into the details but try and guess what kind of impact it has on single mothers . One mother has to work and her while her 7 year old son is home looking after the 4 year old - is that okay? Kids at primary school were getting healthy lunches, now many kids are not getting that as well - parents aren't home or cannot afford it.  I saw one situation where 8 kids were cramped in a small room with video games and their lunch was instant noodles.  Parents had to work so these kids couldn't even go outside.  Is that a better environment than school?

 

In Tokyo people ride the trains everyday (i live there) - about 40 million passengers daily.  Numerous measures have been taken and that appears to be working.  The advice from the doctor is sound.   What you are talking about is 'safetyism' which is assuming not short of 100% is acceptable.   In the meantime I was at a downtown department store in a cramped area and it was absolutely packed with elderly people, many in their late 80s.   So how effective can a lock down be if the must susceptible group is out on the town.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I get what you are saying but there is no perfect here. 

It is a bad situation any way you roll the dice.

The 80 years old congregating is a failure of their judgement but the elderly are frequently demented and very rigid in their thinking.

The government has a duty to protect their citizens and the fact that it hasn't spread as rapidly in Japan is a testament to how effective these measures have been, not that they don't need to be done.

Where these measures haven't been as quick to incorporate the story is very different.

The government also does have a duty to look at the single mothers and kids that are severely affected by this.  To give the US government some credit when Nancy Pelosi talked about this she talked exactly about this, making sure food stamps are getting out and that kids in school lunch programs are getting fed.

By slowing the transmission we are keeping the health care system from flooding well past the point of being able to cope.  Even if we get the same number of cases if we get them over several months instead of weeks we can deal better and improve our capacity and have time to improve treatment protocols.

The problem with statements like what you posted being held up is the situation is so fluid and the data has been too influenced by politics.  I never trusted the Chinese numbers, didn't believe what was coming out of Iran but actually believe both of those more than what is coming out of the US.  Last week if you had asked me I would have said much of what that doctor has said, this week I am switching my practice to as much virtual practice as I can, informing the local hospital to call me if they need help and staying out of large groups of people because as a front line health care worker I am at high risk for being a carrier.  Rates in our area are climbing exponentially as testing gets up and running more easily.  It is in the community and has been for a while.

Stay safe, I know I am going to do everything I can to keep my family and my practice safe and that is all I am asking of people.  I can only deal with what I can and the governments need to step up and help fix the other issues you brought up above.

 

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6 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I get what you are saying but there is no perfect here. 

It is a bad situation any way you roll the dice.

The 80 years old congregating is a failure of their judgement but the elderly are frequently demented and very rigid in their thinking.

The government has a duty to protect their citizens and the fact that it hasn't spread as rapidly in Japan is a testament to how effective these measures have been, not that they don't need to be done.

Where these measures haven't been as quick to incorporate the story is very different.

The government also does have a duty to look at the single mothers and kids that are severely affected by this.  To give the US government some credit when Nancy Pelosi talked about this she talked exactly about this, making sure food stamps are getting out and that kids in school lunch programs are getting fed.

By slowing the transmission we are keeping the health care system from flooding well past the point of being able to cope.  Even if we get the same number of cases if we get them over several months instead of weeks we can deal better and improve our capacity and have time to improve treatment protocols.

The problem with statements like what you posted being held up is the situation is so fluid and the data has been too influenced by politics.  I never trusted the Chinese numbers, didn't believe what was coming out of Iran but actually believe both of those more than what is coming out of the US.  Last week if you had asked me I would have said much of what that doctor has said, this week I am switching my practice to as much virtual practice as I can, informing the local hospital to call me if they need help and staying out of large groups of people because as a front line health care worker I am at high risk for being a carrier.  Rates in our area are climbing exponentially as testing gets up and running more easily.  It is in the community and has been for a while.

Stay safe, I know I am going to do everything I can to keep my family and my practice safe and that is all I am asking of people.  I can only deal with what I can and the governments need to step up and help fix the other issues you brought up above.

 

Doc, I heard a few schools around here have had Covid 19 cases, but the schools weren’t closed.  The schools were super cleaned (disinfected I guess?) but remained open.  I heard also that young kids don’t really get sick from this virus, but are carriers.  Was it wise to keep those schools open?  I don’t get why schools (all of them) weren’t closed this past Monday and have an extended Spring Break?  

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3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Doc, I heard a few schools around here have had Covid 19 cases, but the schools weren’t closed.  The schools were super cleaned (disinfected I guess?) but remained open.  I heard also that young kids don’t really get sick from this virus, but are carriers.  Was it wise to keep those schools open?  I don’t get why schools (all of them) weren’t closed this past Monday and have an extended Spring Break?  

I am in Ontario so am not too sure of what the schools were thinking.  We kept our kids out of school today but that is because we were travelling in the US last week and went to a couple of concerts  (I forgot just how fantastic Sloan is BTW).

It is hard to say if that was the correct thing to do.  Last week I thought more along the lines of @Samurai but as we see data come in from more reliable countries than China, Iran and the US I think that it is the right thing to do.  It is also a very rapidly evolving situation.  At this point though I think shutting schools and restricting access to nursing home and inpatient services is the right thing to do.  I don't understand why Ontario decided to shut the schools for three weeks but stayed open today, one day can make a big difference in flattening the curve.

It has been a phenomenon in other coronavirus outbreaks that kids don't get as sick.  It happened in SARS and MERS.  It is not really well understood.  I believe the prevailing theory is that because a large percentage of colds are coronavirus that they have so much exposure to them that they have some immune cross reactivity.

Their is a theoretical argument to make that we should go lord of the flies and throw everyone under thirty on an island and seed them with coronavirus and isolate them till it works its course.  Then re-introduce them into society, voila herd immunity.

Clearly this is tongue in cheek, but man what a weird spring break that would be.  The worlds biggest chicken pox party.

The problem though is more the spread, they are the carriers.  We can't stop the spread but if we can slow it we can keep the health care system from getting too flooded and give us time to get some people better as new cases get sick.

Personally from what I have read and seen these are the correct things to do.

As I have stated above when people are saying this is silly only a few people have died and it is not worth the short term economic hardship it has caused I have to argue the opposite.  The lack of mortality in some nations is a measure of the success of these measures and somewhat to a failure and reporting of testing early on.  

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3 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I am in Ontario so am not too sure of what the schools were thinking.  We kept our kids out of school today but that is because we were travelling in the US last week and went to a couple of concerts  (I forgot just how fantastic Sloan is BTW).

It is hard to say if that was the correct thing to do.  Last week I thought more along the lines of @Samurai but as we see data come in from more reliable countries than China, Iran and the US I think that it is the right thing to do.  It is also a very rapidly evolving situation.  At this point though I think shutting schools and restricting access to nursing home and inpatient services is the right thing to do.  I don't understand why Ontario decided to shut the schools for three weeks but stayed open today, one day can make a big difference in flattening the curve.

It has been a phenomenon in other coronavirus outbreaks that kids don't get as sick.  It happened in SARS and MERS.  It is not really well understood.  I believe the prevailing theory is that because a large percentage of colds are coronavirus that they have so much exposure to them that they have some immune cross reactivity.

Their is a theoretical argument to make that we should go lord of the flies and throw everyone under thirty on an island and seed them with coronavirus and isolate them till it works its course.  Then re-introduce them into society, voila herd immunity.

Clearly this is tongue in cheek, but man what a weird spring break that would be.  The worlds biggest chicken pox party.

The problem though is more the spread, they are the carriers.  We can't stop the spread but if we can slow it we can keep the health care system from getting too flooded and give us time to get some people better as new cases get sick.

Personally from what I have read and seen these are the correct things to do.

As I have stated above when people are saying this is silly only a few people have died and it is not worth the short term economic hardship it has caused I have to argue the opposite.  The lack of mortality in some nations is a measure of the success of these measures and somewhat to a failure and reporting of testing early on.  

Thanks @DrJockitch.  Expect you’re busy, so appreciate the response. 

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Just now, Alflives said:

Thanks @DrJockitch.  Expect you’re busy, so appreciate the response. 

Actually we are self-isolating today because of our travel history and my wife has a cold.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, DrJockitch said:

I am in Ontario so am not too sure of what the schools were thinking.  We kept our kids out of school today but that is because we were travelling in the US last week and went to a couple of concerts  (I forgot just how fantastic Sloan is BTW).

It is hard to say if that was the correct thing to do.  Last week I thought more along the lines of @Samurai but as we see data come in from more reliable countries than China, Iran and the US I think that it is the right thing to do.  It is also a very rapidly evolving situation.  At this point though I think shutting schools and restricting access to nursing home and inpatient services is the right thing to do.  I don't understand why Ontario decided to shut the schools for three weeks but stayed open today, one day can make a big difference in flattening the curve.

It has been a phenomenon in other coronavirus outbreaks that kids don't get as sick.  It happened in SARS and MERS.  It is not really well understood.  I believe the prevailing theory is that because a large percentage of colds are coronavirus that they have so much exposure to them that they have some immune cross reactivity.

Their is a theoretical argument to make that we should go lord of the flies and throw everyone under thirty on an island and seed them with coronavirus and isolate them till it works its course.  Then re-introduce them into society, voila herd immunity.

Clearly this is tongue in cheek, but man what a weird spring break that would be.  The worlds biggest chicken pox party.

The problem though is more the spread, they are the carriers.  We can't stop the spread but if we can slow it we can keep the health care system from getting too flooded and give us time to get some people better as new cases get sick.

Personally from what I have read and seen these are the correct things to do.

As I have stated above when people are saying this is silly only a few people have died and it is not worth the short term economic hardship it has caused I have to argue the opposite.  The lack of mortality in some nations is a measure of the success of these measures and somewhat to a failure and reporting of testing early on.  

Listen,  the schools in japan are always closely managed for illness. As I stated previously my perfectly healthy kids have been sent home numerous times because their class was shutdown because of the flu - that latest was December.  And the school are wiped down everyday.  Now I somehow doubt that a Canadian school is up to this standard.   It is interesting though that I started social distancing and educating my kids about this by the second week in January as did other people I know here, and now 2 months later people in Canada are now worrying about it.   Here is a time line and guideline of how quickly the Taiwanese gov't acted on this and they have 50 cases .   This event is now a game changer for the medical profession and gov't.   Below is another interview with the author Wang

 

jvp200035supp1_prod.pdf?Expires=21474836

 

 

Here is an interview with Wang

 

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/10/21171722/taiwan-coronavirus-china-social-distancing-quarantine

 

 

 

 

Edited by samurai

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3 hours ago, Shift-4 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nba/ap-source-pistons-christian-wood-tests-positive-for-virus/ar-BB11crdr?li=AAggXBR

 

Another NBA player tests positive.

 

When the first NBA player tested positive I immediately thought the virus is out there more than we really know.

 

I remember when Magic tested positive for HIV/Aids.  The league didn’t shut down then.  

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7 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

image.png

Apparently the Rap and Celts have talked about doing the same...

 

Wouldn't surprise me.

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Courageous stand by the Bucks

Wisconsin is their home state where the last shooting took place

 

It's never wrong to do the right thing

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What happens with these games?  Do the bucks forfeit? are they rescheduling?  


I watched a news conference at lunch with some of the local Kenosha officials those poor folks are out of their depth.  
 

world and countries need some things to unify people.  In sports so often the talk is play for the crest on the front not the name on the back.  Society needs to get on that track.  Everyone is so much about themselves and not the greater group.  Good to take a step back and ask what the hell are we doing and good on the nba players for standing up.

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53 minutes ago, flat land fish said:

What happens with these games?  Do the bucks forfeit? are they rescheduling?  


I watched a news conference at lunch with some of the local Kenosha officials those poor folks are out of their depth.  
 

world and countries need some things to unify people.  In sports so often the talk is play for the crest on the front not the name on the back.  Society needs to get on that track.  Everyone is so much about themselves and not the greater group.  Good to take a step back and ask what the hell are we doing and good on the nba players for standing up.

After the Bucks failed to show up. The Magic players left the court so as to not accept the forfeit.

 

As for the bold. The pandemic is a perfect example of this.

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