Werewolf! The Awakening (Game Over - Town Wins)

[Ceres]

16 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

 

Both agree and disagree with this line of convo. It's very much more of a social tournament than a true measure of skill. In any given year there are probably 60ish worthy of the 45 semifinal spots, and 30ish worth of the final 15 in the Finale, and 10ish who are clearly a head above the rest and maybe deserve to 'win' (I'm just making up numbers there to make a general point though). Luck comes into it too, of course - how roles are used, who you face and how they play, what faction you rand, etc.

 

That said, I'd disagree that it's only about how likeable you are, making yourself stand out, etc. It's certainly true that people hold an unconcious bias towards friends or those familiar to them, but there's been plenty of analysis of the last couple Champs tournies done that show jury selections and in-game voting and everything all tend to match up pretty evenly, i.e. people from a range of forums more or less agree on who deserves to advance.

 

I think how I'd see it is that if you have more 'skill' (however you want to measure that) than your competitors, you'll be recognised either by your peers or by the jury. If you're roughly on par with a couple others, and one or two of them are a bit louder or did a particular Notable Thing or whatever, then yeah, you may end up being the one to get overlooked. But I felt last year's jury did a really good job (based on the couple of games I paid attention to) and this year's jury is made up of a number of people whose judgement I respect. So I personally don't intend to worry about the fairness of it.

I agree that they do the best job they can, and there's no doubt that good players are being selected to advance. They've also improved the selection process by having a semi-finals. The larger the sample size to examine, the better the decision will be. But in my opinion, there are so many things skewing the results that they can't be treated as gospel. No matter how hard they try, it will usually be an "MVP" vote, rather than a best player vote. Because how could you identify the best player from 1 or 2 games?

[Master Radishes]

51 minutes ago, Ceres said:

I agree that they do the best job they can, and there's no doubt that good players are being selected to advance. They've also improved the selection process by having a semi-finals. The larger the sample size to examine, the better the decision will be. But in my opinion, there are so many things skewing the results that they can't be treated as gospel. No matter how hard they try, it will usually be an "MVP" vote, rather than a best player vote. Because how could you identify the best player from 1 or 2 games?

Agree with the overall sentiment, but still disagree with the bold. To use examples I noticed, in G7 last year (which I subbed into) the clear MVP (Beky, the deepwolf) did not place top 4 in votes. Even in the finale, the MVP (LLD, imo) did not win the vote.

[Master Radishes]

But like, what I mean is maybe well illustrated by WC1. I think the 3 who advanced were clearly more skilled, even if only by a hair, than most of the rest of the game. That said, vanity was someone I feel was clearly in the same tier, equally as good as the other three, but got fewer votes because Mac just had more thread presence and so picked up the 'which townie deserves to advance' votes.

 

Conversely, there's someone like Phighter, who is just as loud and controlling and everywhere-in-the-thread as Mac, but didn't advance from his qualifier (G7 again) because as skilled as he is it was clear a few others (vanity, Beck, Sun Fan) were just a bit more deserving. He maybe got a bit shafted by two others from that game who got WC spots (Carson, Mistreya) over him, IMO, but I don't think he would've made it past the WCs anyway.

 

 

tl;dr I think Champs advancements are generally about 80-90% spot on, and the charisma/likeability/gimmick angle functions more as a tiebreak rather than a proper indicator of advancement.

[Master Radishes]

The new game better start before BW and I take over this thread further.

[Ceres]

8 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

Agree with the overall sentiment, but still disagree with the bold. To use examples I noticed, in G7 last year (which I subbed into) the clear MVP (Beky, the deepwolf) did not place top 4 in votes. Even in the finale, the MVP (LLD, imo) did not win the vote.

OK fine. You're right that they don't just vote the MVP. But that aspect still has a significant influence over everyone. As well as the charisma factor. But I digress. 

[Master Radishes]

I won the argument!

[hoggers]

19 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

Agree with the overall sentiment, but still disagree with the bold. To use examples I noticed, in G7 last year (which I subbed into) the clear MVP (Beky, the deepwolf) did not place top 4 in votes. Even in the finale, the MVP (LLD, imo) did not win the vote.

LLD is not likeable. that's pretty much why

[hoggers]

11 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

But like, what I mean is maybe well illustrated by WC1. I think the 3 who advanced were clearly more skilled, even if only by a hair, than most of the rest of the game. That said, vanity was someone I feel was clearly in the same tier, equally as good as the other three, but got fewer votes because Mac just had more thread presence and so picked up the 'which townie deserves to advance' votes.

 

Conversely, there's someone like Phighter, who is just as loud and controlling and everywhere-in-the-thread as Mac, but didn't advance from his qualifier (G7 again) because as skilled as he is it was clear a few others (vanity, Beck, Sun Fan) were just a bit more deserving. He maybe got a bit shafted by two others from that game who got WC spots (Carson, Mistreya) over him, IMO, but I don't think he would've made it past the WCs anyway.

 

 

tl;dr I think Champs advancements are generally about 80-90% spot on, and the charisma/likeability/gimmick angle functions more as a tiebreak rather than a proper indicator of advancement.

phighter is generally likeable but his abrasive and controlling style turns people off.

 

you keep listing players i KNOW are some of the best players and then saying they still don't advance, and that just goes to prove what i'm saying.

[Ceres]

Just now, hoggers said:

LLD is not likeable. that's pretty much why

Lmao. How do you know everyone?

 

I think that was the general sentiment after the game. She'd be grating to play against. Unlike Beck. 

[Master Radishes]

7 minutes ago, hoggers said:

LLD is not likeable. that's pretty much why

But she got voted directly to the finale by her peers in the qualifier, proving skill trumps likeability.

 

And even in the finale she placed highly (3rd I think) showing she was still very highly thought of. You could argue she deserved to win it all, but really it just proves my point that likeability is only a 'tiebreak' rather than the true deciding factor.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Master Radishes

[Master Radishes]

5 minutes ago, Ceres said:

Lmao. How do you know everyone?

 

I think that was the general sentiment after the game. She'd be grating to play against. Unlike Beck. 

It's not hard to argue Beck also did more to help the wolf team win. He was instrumental in several early lynches.

[Ceres]

11 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

But she got voted directly to the finale by her peers in the qualifier, proving skill trumps likeability.

 

And even in the finale she placed highly (3rd I think) showing she was still very highly thought of. You could argue she deserved to win it all, but really it just proves my point that likeability is only a 'tiebreak' rather than the true deciding factory.

There's no deciding factor. There are many factors and you can't really prove how significant any of them are. You'd need to evaluate players over a larger set of games to get a real idea, and even then it would be difficult. 

 

8 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

It's not hard to argue Beck also did more to help the wolf team win. He was instrumental in several early lynches.

I don't mean to imply that I thought anyone was deserving or not deserving because I really didn't follow closely enough. I'm just saying that I'm not surprised that generally likability seems to play a big role in that decision. But at the same time, you could argue that can make someone more effective at mafia in certain respects. It's all so subjective. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Ceres

[Ceres]

Let's talk about something more fun. Like why MR's wolf team lost in the JOAT setup. 

But seriously, I wanted to ask if there are any insights you have into the JOAT vs mafia mechanics based on your game.

[Master Radishes]

1 minute ago, Ceres said:

There's no deciding factor. There are many factors and you can't really prove how significant any of them are. You'd need to evaluate players over a larger set of games to get a real idea, and even then it would be difficult. 

 

I don't mean to imply that I thought anyone was deserving or not deserving because I really didn't follow closely enough. I'm just saying that I'm not surprised that generally likability seems to play a big role in that decision. But at the same time, you could argue that can someone more effective at mafia in certain respects. It's all so subjective. 

100%

 

All I'm saying is that to chalk it up mainly to likeability, charisma, whatever, isn't a satisfactory answer. It plays a role, definitely, but it's a small role in specific cases, not a general role.

[hoggers]

4 minutes ago, Ceres said:

Lmao. How do you know everyone?

 

I think that was the general sentiment after the game. She'd be grating to play against. Unlike Beck. 

i get around 

 

beck is a really chill guy. if you're giving MU the choice between the chad Beck who was a moderator, an active member of the community, and a good player vs LLD who can be way too abrasive and is less received on MU than Beck, the game itself doesn't even matter at that point.

 

2 minutes ago, Master Radishes said:

But she got voted directly to the finale by her peers in the qualifier, proving skill trumps likeability.

 

And even in the finale she placed highly (3rd I think) showing she was still very highly thought of. You could argue she deserved to win it all, but really it just proves my point that likeability is only a 'tiebreak' rather than the true deciding factor.

 i had a big post written for this, but it deals with way too many concepts to even begin to make sense. i have wildly different interpretations of a skillful mafia player, and so to even begin to go into why it isn't based on skill i'd have to quantify every definition that plays into it. that's a separate thread unto itself.

 

as a social function, the champs is a pretty good place to meet friends and have a good time. a problem i notice and ceres brought up is when people take it too seriously and begin to put too much weight into it. what's your thoughts on that?

[Ceres]

1 minute ago, hoggers said:

i get around 

 

beck is a really chill guy. if you're giving MU the choice between the chad Beck who was a moderator, an active member of the community, and a good player vs LLD who can be way too abrasive and is less received on MU than Beck, the game itself doesn't even matter at that point.

 

 i had a big post written for this, but it deals with way too many concepts to even begin to make sense. i have wildly different interpretations of a skillful mafia player, and so to even begin to go into why it isn't based on skill i'd have to quantify every definition that plays into it. that's a separate thread unto itself.

 

as a social function, the champs is a pretty good place to meet friends and have a good time. a problem i notice and ceres brought up is when people take it too seriously and begin to put too much weight into it. what's your thoughts on that?

I'd absolutely want to get into this. I think there's a great discussion to be had on that topic.

[hoggers]

3 minutes ago, Ceres said:

Let's talk about something more fun. Like why MR's wolf team lost in the JOAT setup. 

But seriously, I wanted to ask if there are any insights you have into the JOAT vs mafia mechanics based on your game.

you want my thoughts?

[Master Radishes]

1 minute ago, Ceres said:

Let's talk about something more fun. Like why MR's wolf team lost in the JOAT setup. 

But seriously, I wanted to ask if there are any insights you have into the JOAT vs mafia mechanics based on your game.

Damn I hoped you wouldn't notice. We were letting the Town blunder into disaster, but then they found each other right when we weren't in the thread enough to stop them, and they realised the only people not being stupid townies were me and Okosan. Smh.

 

 

JOATs should go always go tracker/motion detector first, and then save doc roles for N3/N4 when the pool is smaller. If they're both alive, that can win the game for townies.

[Ceres]

Just now, hoggers said:

you want my thoughts?

Sorry, I wanted MR thoughts since he played in that setup on MU.

[hoggers]

1 minute ago, Ceres said:

Sorry, I wanted MR thoughts since he played in that setup on MU.

yea i meant for this game's setup haha