[Official] NHL Return To Play Thread (24 team play off, 15 team draft lottery)

[Wilbur]

2 hours ago, Toews said:

If I am understanding the lottery correctly they are going to use placeholders for picks 8-15, if a placeholder pick wins a top 3 pick then a separate lottery will be held with equal odds for all the teams that lost in the play-in. There is a very real possibility that losing would give you a 1/8 chance at a top 3 pick. Imagine if one of the placeholder picks win 1st overall, Habs fans would want to tank for a 1/8 chance at Lafraniere than an improbable run to the end.

And this is why I just wish they would wait to do the lottery until after the play-in.  Seriously, the dreadfully bad teams have waited this long, they can wait a little longer to hear whether or not their tank dreams came true.

[JustABandwagoner]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-draft-lottery-history-1.236014

[BowtieCanuck]

It's basically a wildcard round. Not the playoffs but not really the regular season either. Should be fun.

[khay]

2 hours ago, Where's Wellwood said:

 

The play-in round is not considered by the NHL to be actual playoffs.

We should keep our 2020 1st rounder if we lose to Minnesota. That would mean our unprotected 2021 first rounder would go to New Jersey no matter what next season, which is frightening when the salary cap for 2020-2021 could be very flat and we have players that need raises.

 

I think its for the best we kick Minnesota's ass with the team we have this year

Thanks for posting this but I didn't understand why it's frightening if our 2021 first rounder goes to NJ?

 

Is it because with the cap likely to stay flat, we aren't going to be able to re-sign the players needed to ice a competitive team and end up sending a lottery pick to NJ?

 

If so, I'm not so sure I agree. If anything, I thought we are at an advantage compared some of the other teams.

 

Two of our best players, EP and Hughes are on an ELC for next season.

 

The core pieces up front, Bo, Miler, Boeser are not needing a new contract and they are signed at a decent cap.

 

Defence is also fine with Hughes, Edler, Myers in the top 4. We are very likely to sign Tryamkin. If we can't re-sign Tanev, then Tryamkin will have to fill in his spot. It's a tall task to replace Tanev but I would think that the drop off is not too big from Tanev to Tryamkin. The bottom pairing has Benn, maybe OJ, Raferty, we might re-sign Fanta. We should be all right.

 

Marky is going to cost about 6M if the cap stays flat, which we should be able to fit if we are not re-signing Tanev + Stecher as their current salary combined exceeds 6M.

 

The only player we are going to lose is Toffoli. It sucks since we gave up a good prospect for him but I think our top 6 will be strong even if he leaves.

 

I'm still hopeful that the NHL will give each team a compliance buyout so that we can buyout Eriksson and re-sign Toffoli because the cap is likely to go down. 

 

If the cap goes down, salary of our key players are still reasonable that we can withstand it (assuming Eriksson is compliance buyout). The only difference is that Marky will have to be signed at or under 5. We can compensate him for taking a lower salary by awarding him a contract that has one more year than he would have been offered under the normal circumstances.

 

[Jaimito]

1 hour ago, StealthNuck said:

 

1. What tone-deaf, entitled statement. 

2. Given the dumpster fire the US is, I'm ok with this. 

Dr. Henry says they will not allow exceptions.  But she said she hasn't seen any proposals yet.   

 

I think the only way may be to create a bubble community that cannot interact with outside community.  players arrive 14 days ahead prior to playing etc.  need some creative ways. 

 

In any case, as long nux play, that is fine.  Doesnt need to be in Canada.  It's a made for TV event.

 

 

 

[Where's Wellwood]

1 minute ago, khay said:

Thanks for posting this but I didn't understand why it's frightening if our 2021 first rounder goes to NJ?

 

Is it because with the cap likely to stay flat, we aren't going to be able to re-sign the players needed to ice a competitive team and end up sending a lottery pick to NJ?

This is exactly what I'm afraid of. 

1 minute ago, khay said:

If so, I'm not so sure I agree. If anything, I thought we are at an advantage compared some of the other teams.

 

Two of our best players, EP and Hughes are on an ELC for next season.

 

The core pieces up front, Bo, Miler, Boeser are not needing a new contract and they are signed at a decent cap.

 

Defence is also fine with Hughes, Edler, Myers in the top 4. We are very likely to sign Tryamkin. If we can't re-sign Tanev, then Tryamkin will have to fill in his spot. It's a tall task to replace Tanev but I would think that the drop off is not too big from Tanev to Tryamkin. The bottom pairing has Benn, maybe OJ, Raferty, we might re-sign Fanta. We should be all right.

 

The Defence might not be too much worse than this year, but it definitely isn't a significant upgrade.

Our core will be the same/improved with experience

 

It's our support players. Leivo, Virtanen, Gaudette all need new contracts too and likely will need raises. Maybe bridge contracts can mitigate this until Baer, Sutter, Ericksson, Roussel are off the books but it'll be tight.

 

Basically, optimistically, we can ice a team of similar overall performance. Maybe a little better.

More realistically, we can expect at least a small drop off just because our defence will be at least a little worse, we may not be able to keep young supporting pieces, and Markstrom needs to replicate the best season of his life. And we were a bubble team this season

[khay]

9 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

This is exactly what I'm afraid of. 

The Defence might not be too much worse than this year, but it definitely isn't a significant upgrade.

Our core will be the same/improved with experience

 

It's our support players. Leivo, Virtanen, Gaudette all need new contracts too and likely will need raises. Maybe bridge contracts can mitigate this until Baer, Sutter, Ericksson, Roussel are off the books but it'll be tight.

 

Basically, optimistically, we can ice a team of similar overall performance. Maybe a little better.

More realistically, we can expect at least a small drop off just because our defence will be at least a little worse, we may not be able to keep young supporting pieces, and Markstrom needs to replicate the best season of his life. And we were a bubble team this season

I see. Thanks for explaining. But I still think there will be other teams that will see bigger drop in their talent pool due that I'm not too worried (not yet anyways).

 

For example, Dallas has 33 million dollars tied up on 4 players. Benn seems to be declining and Seguin is having the worst season since his rookie season. SJ was smart to move on from Pavelski, definitely not a 7M player that he once was.

 

Blues will lose Pietrangelo unless he signs for the same amount that he is signed for.

 

Edmonton might also be in trouble. Their lack of depth was obvious and they are one injury away from being a one man team.

 

I'm not too worried about Gaud and JV. They are still RFAs, the team has the advantage in negotiating with the RFAs. Leivo will be gone but I don't think we were going to bring him back anyways especially with emergence of MacEwen.

 

I agree that we won't improve much at all as a team but I also don't think there will be a huge enough drop off. But like you said, the best bet is to just beat Minnesota and clinch for the playoffs.

 

[khay]

43 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

And this is why I just wish they would wait to do the lottery until after the play-in.  Seriously, the dreadfully bad teams have waited this long, they can wait a little longer to hear whether or not their tank dreams came true.

I agree. As soon as Bettman started to explain phase 2, I was like, why not just wait after the play-in round... That eliminates having to give each team an equal chance to win a placeholder spot as NHL can simply revert back to using regular season point percentage.

[Nave]

There might be an asterisk, but a Stanley Cup is a Stanley Cup.
Let's not act like people aren't going to watch. The Last Dance got crazy ratings. People have been starving for sports.

[-AJ-]

Shannon (The Hockey Guy) explains things well here: 

 

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Jaimito said:

Dr. Henry says they will not allow exceptions.  But she said she hasn't seen any proposals yet.   

 

I think the only way may be to create a bubble community that cannot interact with outside community.  players arrive 14 days ahead prior to playing etc.  need some creative ways. 

 

In any case, as long nux play, that is fine.  Doesnt need to be in Canada.  It's a made for TV event.

 

 

 

I have a hard time seeing the NHLPA agreeing to a US city if the virus is killing thousands per day

[10pavelbure96]

3 hours ago, Fanuck said:

As a hockey fan I'm happy they're at least trying to figure out a plan.

 

As a traditionalist, this year's season and eventual cup winner is going to have a giant * beside it unfortunately. 

How so? Ya sure games will be played in neutral hubs with no spectators.

 

But it's still 16 plus wins needed and will still be a grind. Every team will have the same advantages and disadvantages as far as no fans goes. Home ice advantage goes out the window but in the past we all know that doesnt make a big difference.

 

It will still be a championship win no less than winning in a shortened season imo. Which will be the situation next year.

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, stawns said:

I have a hard time seeing the NHLPA agreeing to a US city if the virus is killing thousands per day

that and Canadian cities are 75% of the cost of US ones. 

 

I suspect there will be some sort of workaround on the 14 day thing. 

[stawns]

46 minutes ago, NaveJoseph said:

There might be an asterisk, but a Stanley Cup is a Stanley Cup.
Let's not act like people aren't going to watch. The Last Dance got crazy ratings. People have been starving for sports.

Why would there be an asterisk?

[Sedinyoureyesontheprize]

27 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

that and Canadian cities are 75% of the cost of US ones. 

 

I suspect there will be some sort of workaround on the 14 day thing. 

Did Bettman say that players don’t have to be quarantined in the states? That’s not  a stellar public health strategy, we know it only takes one case to spread quickly.  

[DeNiro]

7 minutes ago, stawns said:

Why would there be an asterisk?

Because every other fan base will be mad that their team didn’t win and claim there should be one.

 

Honestly if we win our first cup I could care less about the circumstances. Sure it would be way better with the fans there to celebrate but a cups a cup.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

3 hours ago, Provost said:

I do see an issue with the draft idea if I am reading it correctly.

Before the teams play the "play in" round, they will know how many "placeholder" teams will be picking in the top 3 of the draft.

The 8 placeholder teams have about a cumulative 25% to win each top 3 draft.  It isn't even highly unlikely that two of them move up to that spot (it happened last year).

So that means a fringe team that knows that is virtually no chance of winning 5 rounds of playoff hockey could know that by losing the play in round, they would have a 25% chance of a top 3 pick before the puck is dropped.

That is literally the best tanking odds in the history of the game.  Would team brass not be inclined to put their best foot forward in order for a great chance at the three highly touted picks this year?

There’s even about a 1% chance that all three of the top-3 picks go to the placeholders. Obviously not the best odds of happening, but still could happen. I can just imagine phase one of the lottery and the big reveal comes when they pull out three “NHL” cards, and the look on faces of all 7 of the bottom teams GMs when they learn they are all moving back three spots. And then all the play-in teams learning they have a 37.5% chance of picking top-3. At that point, I’d almost hope we’d throw our series against Minny, and try for our 3/8 shot at a top-3 pick.

[DeNiro]

This is honestly a perfect scenario for the Canucks IMO.

 

If the season resumes we get all our players back healthy and get a chance for our young players to play in a high pressure win or go home situation.

 

The result:

 

1) We win against the Wild and move into the playoffs where our guys get some invaluable playoff experience and learn what it takes to win. We give up a mid first round pick to New Jersey and keep our 2021.

 

2) We lose against the Wild and are eliminated, yet our young players still learn what it takes to play in high pressure games. We keep our first round pick and potentially have a 12.5% for a top 3 pick. Gaining “playoff” like experience while continuing to build the team through the draft.

 

Win-win for me.

 

[King Heffy]

37 minutes ago, stawns said:

Why would there be an asterisk?

There shouldn't be.  The play-in is a replacement for the stretch drive, followed by 4 rounds.  If the lockout shortened seasons didn't have an asterisk despite teams not playing outside their own conference, this shouldn't either,

[NewbieCanuckFan]

14 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

There shouldn't be.  The play-in is a replacement for the stretch drive, followed by 4 rounds.  If the lockout shortened seasons didn't have an asterisk despite teams not playing outside their own conference, this shouldn't either,

All the Leaf cups should have an asterix considering there were only six teams in the league.