[Discussion] Getting out of Cap Mess

[Provost]

I don't think there are many folks still clinging on to the belief that we aren't in a huge cap mess that is going to cost us good players this year and probably next.  We are almost certainly facing being worse next season rather than better.  Bettman has also now repeatedly denied that compliance buyouts are going to be a thing. Owners don't want to spend more real money and it makes escrow worse for players.

There are moves to get out of it and actually improve, but I don't know that management has the boldness or creativity to do them.  Failing to do them or something similar means we are definitely a much worse team next year, especially on defence.

1.  Sign Toffoli and trade Boeser for a young top 4 D
         This says nothing about each of their relative abilities as players or potential.  It is simply about what we can afford and what assets we can get back.  If we don't sign Toffoli we just lose him for nothing.  Toffoli can do what Boeser does in our lineup at a similar rate so it is pretty much a wash.  With the current economics you can certainly get Toffoli for less than Boeser's cap hit, and aren't faced with a big raise that Boeser will get in two more years at a time that we will have spent all our money on our two superstars.  Boeser can get you a badly needed young top 4 RD in return... Dumba/Severson/Ristolainen or something similar (small pieces extra packaged going on way or another to even things up).

2.  Trade Virtanen and Demko for picks and cap dumps.
        Assuming it is a given that we sign Markstrom for 4 years or more, Demko becomes a luxury.  It is great to have luxuries, but we just can't afford it right now.  Virtanen is going to be expensive for what he brings, and there is quite a bit of evidence that he may have hit a high water mark this year.  There is enough shine on a young 1st round power forward who can score 20 goals.  You may be able to get rid of Baertschi and Sutter plus get some decent picks in return for moving these guys out.  It sounds crazy, but the opportunity cost of keeping Virtanen (what we lose in order to re-sign him) is huge at this point and doesn't make us better.  Those dollars can simply be better spent on another player.

3.   Demote Eriksson and tell him he isn't coming to camp.
        Put pressure on him to retire or mutually terminate his contract so he can go play in Dallas or somewhere at $1.5 million to finish off his career rather than riding a bus for two years.


So then we have filled a top 4 D hole and shaved over $7.5 million off the cap.  We have also opened up a 2nd line RW slot for Podkolzin who will be able to join us as soon as early next season (assuming our season doesn't start until Dec/Jan and the KHL still ends in Feb/March).

We sign Leivo, a cheaper veteran goalie backup, and if Ferland isn't an option, just sign or trade for a bottom 6 veteran winger on a 1yr cheap contract for some depth.  There will be lots of guys who aren't going to get contract offers because there will be so little money in the system.  Sign Tanev if there happens to be a cheaper deal for him, but assume that isn't the case.

Miller-Petterson-Toffoli
Pearson-Horvat-Leivo
Roussel-Gaudette-MacEwan
Ferland-Beagle-Motte

Hughes-XXX (Severson/Dumba/etc)
Edler-Myers
Juolevi/Benn-Tryamkin/Rafferty
Stecher

Markstrom
XXX

That is a $73-75 million dollar roster even with Eriksson buried that leaves room for pushed ELC overages as well as absorbing next year's ELC bonuses with lots of wiggle room.  It even allows the possibility of taking on a contract from a cap strapped team in either a Miller type deal or for futures.  20-40 games into next season we can also bring in Podkolzin to push guys on the right side down the roster.  If Eriksson bails on his contract we would be sitting VERY pretty in the short term and allowing us to sign both our superstars to max term contracts rather than bridge deals.

An alternative would be to not try to find a D this year and keep both Boeser and Toffoli.  Let our defence be horrible and test out to see who can actually play (Juolevi, Rafferty, Tryamkin, Rathbone, etc) so we know what we have.  Next offseason is a time to snipe D as teams will have solid #4 guys they can't protect in expansion and can be had for relatively cheap... you could get someone as good as Haydn Fleury who is probably exposed, or one of Boston's young D who can't be protected, probably 10 teams have guys they would hate to lose for free that would be legit top 4 guys as upgrades for us.  The downside of that is that we would almost certainly not be very good next season if that was the case (please in that scenario Tanev sign a bargain 1 year deal!)



 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Provost

[King Heffy]

Not comfortable having Leivo in the top 6.  Personally I'd start the pressure on LE now by telling him he won't be on the expanded roster.  If he insists on reporting to Utica, he's probably movable with a decent sweetener to a team with an impoverished owner such as Ottawa once his bonus has been paid.  That enables us to keep Boeser and re-sign Tanev.

[Pears]

Offload Sutter and Roussel, buyout Baertschi and stand pat in free agency. Simple. I looked for teams who had oodles of cap space who could afford to take their contracts for one year, and give us the bare minimum for each in return. 

 

If we get a cbo that we can use on Loui then we’re gold. 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Pears
added thought

[BoKnows]

Trading Boeser would hurt, I would only do it if we got an exciting young dman back.

[Provost]

16 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Not comfortable having Leivo in the top 6.  Personally I'd start the pressure on LE now by telling him he won't be on the expanded roster.  If he insists on reporting to Utica, he's probably movable with a decent sweetener to a team with an impoverished owner such as Ottawa once his bonus has been paid.  That enables us to keep Boeser and re-sign Tanev.

It isn’t a wonderful option, but he is a decent filler for what could be a really short term.

 

NHL season isn’t likely to start until the beginning of January.  As of today, KHL is still on track to start on time and finish before the end of February (plus possible playoffs).  Podkolzin could be available REALLY early into next season with the way this is all working out.

 

There will also be veteran wingers available for cheap VrbataVanek like contracts that we can pick up as really short term options.

[lmm]

31 minutes ago, Pears said:

Offload Sutter and Roussel, buyout Baertschi and stand pat in free agency. Simple. I looked for teams who had oodles of cap space who could afford to take their contracts for one year, and give us the bare minimum for each in return. 

 

If we get a cbo that we can use on Loui then we’re gold. 

why would Ottawa want Sutter at $4 mil?

If I am Ottawa I might take Sutter at 50% retained and I give you a 6th and 2 packs of O Pee Chee

Edited June 14, 2020 by lmm

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, lmm said:

why would Ottawa want Sutter at $4 mil?

Not to mention Tanev taking a 10% pay cut to sign as a free agent 

[lmm]

2 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Not to mention Tanev taking a 10% pay cut to sign as a free agent 

I gave you a beer... we will give Chris lots of beer before talking contract, that'll work , right?

 

[coastal.view]

not sure how you can have this discussion

in a meaningful fashion

without knowing the financial frame work of the league moving forward

 

the league will likely have a multi year static salary cap

i'm guessing at a slighting higher level then current

so that teams that have made decisions and plans based on the former state of the world

will have a little wiggle room to work out, repair, correct, or refashion their approach

and still be able to field a credible team (hello leafs, whatcha gonna do if the cap goes down even a nickle? - can you even field 6 nhl calibre dmen?)

escrow will be used to shave proportionately all contracts if adjustment is required so that players salaries do not consume more then 50% of revenues over the course of the multi year cap freeze (players will get more then 50% in the initial year or 2)

i also wonder if, only for the time period the salary cap has been made static, that teams will be permitted to borrow a million or 2 from a future year in the initial year or 2 of this cap freeze time period

 

if a multiyear static cap is in place

new contract salaries will be based on the cap not increasing

that also removes for a time the salary boom expected by many (hello matthews) from factoring into contract values

so it is then likely that salary expectations on new contracts will be a bit more modest

 

players and teams will calculate risk based on their belief that the league will rebound nicely and that the new television revenues will be realized (players will seek shorter contracts that will be timed to when the salary cap is no longer static) or that this will not happen (and longer, slightly lower aav contracts will be preferred)

 

every team will be impacted in the same manner (they already are in the same current boat of uncertainty)

so nucks cannot unload contracts to other teams when they have no clue yet what financial framework is going forward either

nor can they take on salary dumps in order to acquire more draft picks

until a new deal / frame work is in place, every team has to assume the salary cap has to come down significantly to accord with the 25% or more of revenue loss that will happen this season

 

so as things stand right now and no adjustments are made to the framework

the salary cap should be somewhere in the 60 million dollar range next season

and that could be a little optimistic

(so what are the laffs gonna do?)

Edited June 14, 2020 by coastal.view

[smithers joe]

why would toffoli be worth more than miller, boeser and horvat. maybe 5, 250,000. 

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

why would toffoli be worth more than miller, boeser and horvat. maybe 5, 250,000. 

I think pre-covid he could have gotten a $5million, 5 year term.

 

I actually think now he comes in at a similar salary to his current one at up to 3-4 years.  

[Crabcakes]

4 hours ago, Provost said:

I think pre-covid he could have gotten a $5million, 5 year term.

 

I actually think now he comes in at a similar salary to his current one at up to 3-4 years.  

You read I-Mac's column didn't you?  So did I.

 

First, we don't know the cap moving forward which is why there have been next to no deals recently.

 

It's fair to assume that most deals are going to contain about the same cap hit going each way.

 

I also think the cap will remain relatively flat over the next couple of years.  This is all subject to an agreement between the league and the players assn.

 

I think that your proposal then is a bit of overkill since as you say, all of the above make come in around $73-75M.  On other threads, I've posted that I think Benning will rank his players by position to get an idea of who he can live without and who he can't.  Also, factor in that it is fairly certain (in my mind at least) that he has been shopping Baertschi, Sutter, Eriksson maybe others.

 

What do you think of the chances of a mutual termination of Eriksson's contract after his bonus gets paid this summer?  As I-Mac suggested.  If he's told it's Utica or a mutual termination with $5M remaining, does he go for it?  I-Mac thinks he could get a contract elsewhere in the $1.5 range....maybe he could.  If Loui could sign somewhere for 2  @ $1.5M and play in the NHL, would he do it instead of $5M for 2 in the AHL would he do it?  That would go a long way to fitting players under the cap.  However, the $3M bonus would go against the cap next year so it would take more.  

 

If there are subtractions though, I don't think they're by trade.  Boeser for a player of similar value who is still on his ELC would probably take an additional asset.  So the list of players who may not be back would be Toffoli, Virtanen, Motte, Gaudette, MacEwen, Tanev, Stecher, Fantenberg, Domingue, Markstrom and Leivo.  

 

I-Mac thought that Toffoli and Markstrom are the top priority (in no particular order).  I'm not so sure that signing Marky necessarily means they've decided on him over Demko long term either.  Right side D is still light.  Tanev has to be next, then Stecher.  Could Virtanen, Leivo, and Gaudette all be signed for less than $2M?  That would be nice but at some point, sacrifices are going to have to be made and I think you're right, maybe next season, the Canucks aren't as good.  Who knows, there may be great development from some of the young players.

 

I think that at this point, there are more questions than answers.  It's definitely going to be interesting.  Maybe a $&!# storm on CDC.

 

Here's the link to I-Mac's column.  https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/canucks-mailbag-much-cost-re-sign-tyler-toffoli/

Edited June 15, 2020 by Crabcakes

[Ghostsof1915]

Offseason:

Let go:

Stecher, 6th round pick for his rights?

Let walk:

Motte, Leivo, Fantenberg, Domingue 

 

See if you can trade:

Sutter or Roussel (Maybe both, there return isn't important).

Sign Toffoli and Markstrom, see if Tanev will take a 1 year term. 

Sign Graovac for 1 year. 

 

RFA's 

Sign Virtanen, Gaudette, MacE, Perron, Bailey, Chatfield and Brisebois. Give Kielly one more shot and 1 more year. 

 

Miller Pettersson Boeser

Pearson Horvat Toffoli

Eriksson Gaudette Virtanen

MacE (Ferland)  Beagle Lind/Lockwood

 

Defence:

Hughes Tanev

Edler Myers

Benn Woo/Rafferty

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

See how things play out in training camp/minors.

 

 

 

 

[DADDYROCK]

The thing with some of these deals and trades,you need a trade partner to want those players and not just give them away.

There are lots of players on this team who should not feel too comfortable because in order to improve hard decisions need to be implimented. We need help especially on defense, and to get someone great you have to give someone great.

 

We had lots of people here throwing fits when we got Miller,but JT has been one of our best players and elevated the play of guys around him.

You  just hope for the best when doing some of these deals,some work out some not so much.

[Patel Bure]

1) Demko as a sweetener to move Eriksson to Ottawa or Detroit.

2) Move Baertschi with 50% retention

3) Move Sutter with 50% retention

4) Sign Toffoli

5) Sign Tanev

6) Sign Markstrom

7) Stecher moved for a pick or is unqualified (replaced by Rafferty).  
8) Bye bye Leivo

9) Sign Tryamkin (or if we are committing to Tanev, possibly use Tree as a sweetener to move someone like Beagle).

10 Sign Gaudette

 

That leaves Boeser and Virtanen.

 

Depending on the cap space left, the Canucks can either........

 

1) Move Jake Virtanen (plus?) at the draft to recoup the first rounder lost in the JT Miller deal.

OR

 

2) Move Boeser for a very good  “all situations” young defenseman such as Noah Dobson or Bowen Byram to clear up cap space and also have a legit Edler replacement within the system (which would allow us to potentially move on from Edler when his contract expires).

Edited June 15, 2020 by DarkIndianRises

[mll]

.

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by mll

[86Viking]

Really like had Toffoli fit in with the short sample size, but I personally fee he is a 5-5.5m max player. Being able to keep him would be nice and down the road would allow us to shift other F's who play RW to the LW position if needed.

 

Trading Brock would suck, he has put up good numbers and is quite a bit younger than Toffoli, Toff brings leadership and playoff experience which I think would be a nice addition to keep around, plus he is at an age where he can grow with our younger core as long as we sign him to a reasonable length contract in my opinion. If we do trade Brock I think we definitely walk away from Tanev unless he takes a short term deal and a discount...which is unlikely to happen. 

 

I'd like to keep Tanev, no real replacement in the system for him who can play top 4 right away and if we/when we beat Minnesota we then know our 2021 1st is going to NJ. So I assume JB will want to ice a good team and not be willing to cut some key players from this current roster to hopefully solidify out playoff chances next year and not risk a lotto pick going the other way ala TO with Kessel trade.

 

That said, I wouldn't give Tanev a raise by much $, being healthy in his contract year is good for his agent as a bargaining chip but for us he has missed a decent amount of time over the years. Losing a top 4 D for stretches of the season is not idea. So for me its a shorter term deal at the same cap hit or maybe 4.75m or a deal of 4-5 years at a slight reduction.

 

Marky, this is his chance to get that longer term big $ payday. Yes there are some other UFA goalies that will be available but I think he will still get some nice offers. Would hate to have to lose Demko as I don't think Dipietro is going to be capable of #1 status in the NHL. Marky maybe 4-5years at 5-6m? But who knows what a team might offer him on the FA market...

 

Sven, should be able to send him to say Ottawa for his remaining year, we may need to attach a mid round pick or similar type prospect, but they can play him top 9 for sure, hope he produces a bit and stays healthy then flip him before the TDL for another asset. 

 

Sutter- I would trade, shouldn't be too hard to move for a 2way Right shot C but he has be plagued by injuries, value won't be great but losing that cap hit is the most important thing. 

 

Roussel- Like him, but he may get dealt at some point next year if say Hoglander earns a spot and starts on the 3rd line, also the health of Ferland would play a part as well.

 

Benn- move him for a conditional pick, coach doesn't seem to favour him so time to move on, thats 2m off the books. Send him to another bottom feeder with cap space where they can flip him at the TDL for a mid to late round pick

 

#21- Personally I would do like another poster said, play hard ball...waive him and send him to Utica, then he can take the bus and sit in the press box. You can only hope he will terminate his contract but hard to see a player walking away from $$$ , especially if you don't even have to perform or work for it! I know that may look like a black eye for us to do this, but let's be real...he didn't sign this past summer and has been ABYSMAL since arriving and such a waste of a 6m cap hit. To potentially lose Toffoli because we have to keep this guy would just be sad!

 

Pearson- be interesting to see how he does next year and what he might want for a contract...we can't overpay this guy. Like him, he fits well but only so much $ and we got EP and QH to worry about.

 

Virtanen- Curious to see what kind of term and $ he will be looking for as an RFA. Like him, think we could use a player with his skillset long term. But does the coach trust him in a top 6 role? Will he ever get a decent chance to play the LW spot where he seems to excel at and snipe from!? But also, does Jake want to be here long term if he is only going to be a 3rd line guy...which comes down to how much can we afford to keep him as the #3RW?

 

Can't wait to see what GM JB does once we get some idea of the cap going forward and the upcoming draft...whenever that is!

 

Doubt you read this all but that's my take. Probably missed mentioning some players like say Leivo-let MaC take his spot for a cheaper price plus need the roster space!

[captaincowbasher]

20 hours ago, Provost said:

I don't think there are many folks still clinging on to the belief that we aren't in a huge cap mess that is going to cost us good players this year and probably next.  We are almost certainly facing being worse next season rather than better.  Bettman has also now repeatedly denied that compliance buyouts are going to be a thing. Owners don't want to spend more real money and it makes escrow worse for players.

There are moves to get out of it and actually improve, but I don't know that management has the boldness or creativity to do them.  Failing to do them or something similar means we are definitely a much worse team next year, especially on defence.

1.  Sign Toffoli and trade Boeser for a young top 4 D
         This says nothing about each of their relative abilities as players or potential.  It is simply about what we can afford and what assets we can get back.  If we don't sign Toffoli we just lose him for nothing.  Toffoli can do what Boeser does in our lineup at a similar rate so it is pretty much a wash.  With the current economics you can certainly get Toffoli for less than Boeser's cap hit, and aren't faced with a big raise that Boeser will get in two more years at a time that we will have spent all our money on our two superstars.  Boeser can get you a badly needed young top 4 RD in return... Dumba/Severson/Ristolainen or something similar (small pieces extra packaged going on way or another to even things up).

2.  Trade Virtanen and Demko for picks and cap dumps.
        Assuming it is a given that we sign Markstrom for 4 years or more, Demko becomes a luxury.  It is great to have luxuries, but we just can't afford it right now.  Virtanen is going to be expensive for what he brings, and there is quite a bit of evidence that he may have hit a high water mark this year.  There is enough shine on a young 1st round power forward who can score 20 goals.  You may be able to get rid of Baertschi and Sutter plus get some decent picks in return for moving these guys out.  It sounds crazy, but the opportunity cost of keeping Virtanen (what we lose in order to re-sign him) is huge at this point and doesn't make us better.  Those dollars can simply be better spent on another player.

3.   Demote Eriksson and tell him he isn't coming to camp.
        Put pressure on him to retire or mutually terminate his contract so he can go play in Dallas or somewhere at $1.5 million to finish off his career rather than riding a bus for two years.


So then we have filled a top 4 D hole and shaved over $7.5 million off the cap.  We have also opened up a 2nd line RW slot for Podkolzin who will be able to join us as soon as early next season (assuming our season doesn't start until Dec/Jan and the KHL still ends in Feb/March).

We sign Leivo, a cheaper veteran goalie backup, and if Ferland isn't an option, just sign or trade for a bottom 6 veteran winger on a 1yr cheap contract for some depth.  There will be lots of guys who aren't going to get contract offers because there will be so little money in the system.  Sign Tanev if there happens to be a cheaper deal for him, but assume that isn't the case.

Miller-Petterson-Toffoli
Pearson-Horvat-Leivo
Roussel-Gaudette-MacEwan
Ferland-Beagle-Motte

Hughes-XXX (Severson/Dumba/etc)
Edler-Myers
Juolevi/Benn-Tryamkin/Rafferty
Stecher

Markstrom
XXX

That is a $73-75 million dollar roster even with Eriksson buried that leaves room for pushed ELC overages as well as absorbing next year's ELC bonuses with lots of wiggle room.  It even allows the possibility of taking on a contract from a cap strapped team in either a Miller type deal or for futures.  20-40 games into next season we can also bring in Podkolzin to push guys on the right side down the roster.  If Eriksson bails on his contract we would be sitting VERY pretty in the short term and allowing us to sign both our superstars to max term contracts rather than bridge deals.

An alternative would be to not try to find a D this year and keep both Boeser and Toffoli.  Let our defence be horrible and test out to see who can actually play (Juolevi, Rafferty, Tryamkin, Rathbone, etc) so we know what we have.  Next offseason is a time to snipe D as teams will have solid #4 guys they can't protect in expansion and can be had for relatively cheap... you could get someone as good as Haydn Fleury who is probably exposed, or one of Boston's young D who can't be protected, probably 10 teams have guys they would hate to lose for free that would be legit top 4 guys as upgrades for us.  The downside of that is that we would almost certainly not be very good next season if that was the case (please in that scenario Tanev sign a bargain 1 year deal!)



 

You just set the team back 5 years, no thanks. Boeser only gets traded if we get a legit top line defender back; ala Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen deal, otherwise no way do you give Boeser up, as he;s far too valuable as our number one RW. Yes 100% to resigning Tofolli- 4 years 5.5 million per year. Our second line becomes legit, and when you add either Podkolzin or Hoglander to the team we'll have two very strong forward lines that will pull vault the Canucks into legit contender status for years to come. 

I agree that we need to move Demko, and We also need to move Sutter and Stecher. Is there a package where we might be able to recover some picks? I think the Islanders would love all three players so maybe there's a possible trading partner. Re-signing Tanev and Markstrom are priorities as well. Virtanen should not be moved, and I think time will bear out how important this young man will be to this team, with game changing goals, pace-making speed, physical presence, and heavy hockey which is required to win in the playoffs. He can play on any line and make a difference at any time. He'll get better with time and more exposure to JT Miller. I think the push your looking for on the back end will come from our prospects like Rafferty, OJ, WOO, and Rathbone. I think eventually one of those guys will be one of our top 2 defenders, and another one of them will be in our top 4. Way cheaper then bringing in a 6-7 million dollar Dumba.

[mll]

22 hours ago, Pears said:

Offload Sutter and Roussel, buyout Baertschi and stand pat in free agency. Simple. I looked for teams who had oodles of cap space who could afford to take their contracts for one year, and give us the bare minimum for each in return. 

 

If we get a cbo that we can use on Loui then we’re gold. 

 

[...]

 

The bonus overage for this season is missing. The Canucks only have 30'474.- in end of season cap space per CapFriendly.  Performance bonuses still have to be accounted for and anything in excess of these 30K will carry over to next season.  Pettersson/Hughes have 1.7M combined and others like Gaudette might have some games played bonuses. Both will still be bonus eligible next season and if the Canucks want to avoid another carry over, they will need to keep some space below the cap.

 

Owners/league are against compliance buyouts per Shannon, Friedman and MacIntyre.  They will already be operating at a loss and adding compliance buyouts just increases their losses further.

 

The league/owners will be operating at a loss next season and probably for several years beyond.  They will likely keep the cap somewhat flat and have a capped escrow - it's not realistic to drop the cap dramatically.  The cap will be artificial and won't reflect revenue.  They are going to have to make up their losses over time.  They are talking in billions.  Brian Burke was saying last week that the financial situation is a catastrophe and believes that media/the league is downplaying the situation.

 

Some owners don't even want the league to resume without fans in the stands.  Several teams have cut back staff salary, furloughed employees and even fired them.

 

Some teams might elect to operate on an internal cap to limit their losses until better times.  It limits the ability to make trades especially for perceived overpaid bottom of the lineup players.  There might also be some unexpected names on the trade market as teams try and create cap space.

 

Would think that teams with cap space are more likely going to try and find their own JT Miller rather than add a Roussel, who has struggled this season or Benn who finished D7 or even Suter who has again missed time due to injury.

 

Teams also know that the Canucks wish to retain Markstrom, Toffoli and Tanev and have limited cap space and they could exploit the situation.  Some might even prefer that these guys hit UFA.

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by mll

[captaincowbasher]

As well, Leivo is not a top 6 forward on any good team, so why would we want him there. Ferland is done and he's only an asset as a LTIR cap space generator.