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Wolf: Wanderer above the Sea of Fog (Game On!)

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7 hours ago, hoggers said:

to start off, i just want to run through how the game is supposed to be played. 


in flipless, you operate under zero assumptions pretty much ever. instead, you run off probability, likely numbers, and different universes. essentially, in flipless, theory is 10000% times more important than the hard reads. the hard reads just make it generally easier. 


after the blinzer lynch, the immediate, immediate counterwagon should have been luckylager. this a given. after that lynch, you then compare the wagons of luckylager and blinzer, divide scumteams into around 2 universes with 2 backdoor ones. these account for a. bussing, b hard defense, c. anything in between. if it were me, i'm hitting luckylager and then lynching funnygurl for their gross vote at the eod. i'm assuming that they're both scum together and moving on with my life. after accounting for these universes, you hit the person who has the most probability to be scum in both universes. this is directly after the luckylager counterwagon hit. again, this could have ranged from anyone like funnygurl to people like pasta linguine who had no interest in who died at the eod. the oligarchy scumteam affiliated with luckylager more generally than the flow team did. then you rinse and repeat for most days. the voting structure itself, especially with the ties, was directly set up to give both town and scum all the information they would need this game. this is just a general overview. 


a more detailed analysis of game concepts can be found here. both scumteams were never at any points aware of each other, and neither of them posted their roles in the group chat. these two were very easy mistakes to make, but in a flipless game, they were pretty silly. just because you are scum does not mean you have all the information. you act like you don't know anything and every possibility is brought up. flow chat did a better job of this by mentioning the possibility a few times. otherwise, their games worked fine in day thread. town made a bunch of silly mistakes like

a. oracle claiming vigilante day 1 and getting lynched

b. the guardian angel claiming doctor and rescinding

c. kurisu killing otis, then master radishes who he forgot he did so and accused menaci instead

d. naslund dying before him and flow menaci claimed mason


aside from these directly role related mistakes, town failed to make a comprehensive list of what was given to them. this included the guardian angel TELLING people who it protected as well as the possibility of masons, blinzer being almost near confirmed town with a strange power role, and inclusion of either two mafia teams or a mafia team and 3p. they didn't compile any information in thread nor looked to the early day wagons or vcs (which in their defense, i absolutely didn't do $&!# end game.) this was actually very winnable for town. they didn't get the crosskills they needed, but the information to make plays was everywhere in chat. however, players, for whatever reason this game, were hard inactive, and the town members were persuaded by the mafia presence to hit inactives rather than try to make educated reads and move from there. the inactives themselves only had two players with general good reasons for being busy (flow menaci and zfetch had stuff going on), but i won't assume all of you didn't either. i just know that whoever had a lack of presence in this game had the ability and has showcased the ability in other games to stick around and keep a consistent presence throughout a mafia game. 


player analysis wise, i am very proud of luckylager and sharpshooter for their improved performances this game. i didn't see any big changes to their game. matter of fact, i thought they were so obvious it hurt, but what matters is that the people in the game didn't (suck a dick hoggers). they didn't because of the confidence both players displayed. that sort of confidence is key to being scum, and i hope no matter how many times both of you get &^@#ed, you improve based off your mistakes but keep that kind of fight in you. luckylager especially would not die after being the counterwagon day 1, and it was a miracle that he got as far as he did. sharpshooter going down in night was hard to see, and radishes dying to inactives was funny as all hell. some tips to that dynamic that i mentioned was luckylager and sharp both struggle with openings. you both should have gone into thread insulting each other and doing exactly what you were doing in the mafia pm. you should have played off each other and built your mafia team up in townreads through chemistry and how you interacted with each other. master radishes was fine doing his thing, but you two could have brought it all the way to the end by playing together. 


the oligarchy team played well enough. at least well enough to win. qwags, staying out of the limelight and letting town kill themselves won't work every game. you and me both have experienced town's dominance well enough in the previous 10~ games we've played. eventually, you're going to have to try and channel your inner tp qwags and make reads and posts that change the game itself. you played well here, and congratulations on the win. funnygurl, i was impressed at your juggling of multiple games and still managing to keep alive the entire &^@#ing game with everyone and their dead grandma's suspicion on you. it was pretty funny to watch everyone scream for a funnygurl lynch, and a couple hours later nobody even remembered it. i'm not sure how you pulled that off besides pocketing a few people down the road and watching the game with a relaxed vibe. remarkable composure, however, and a well deserved win. 


as for my dear friend linguine, in a mafia context they definitely deserve mvp. however, i was not impressed. you spent eod1 doing your best to distance a teammate which

a. does not do anything

b. detracted from your eod play

by trying to distance yourself, you made yourself attach to funnygurl hard from the very beginning and made it clear you had no interest in who the lynch landed on. your later analytics based on the lynch then held a little less weight, but even then, they made no sense. anybody that understands wagon analysis would claim that you were explicitly manipulating it for what you want in a worst case scenario, or in a best case scenario misreading what you saw. however, the general idea to manipulate what little information you had was good play by you and master radishes. your analysis and player reads were essentially driven to townreading whoever had an active presence and scumreading whoever was not around for key events. there was not a lot of substance or creativity behind the reads. you won the game with flying colors, and everyone townread you while you took the throne. you can do better, though, and i know you know this.


the town was depressing. there isn't an individual player i want to talk about. i was hoping for a general hero, but for all my remarks about inactivity, the people with the best reads were the people who weren't around in thread. the two players with the most influence and who had locked onto scum early, naslund and bluejay, were killed night 1 where i had to rng m&h's ability. after that, there wasn't a real town hero, and nobody really stepped up when town needed it. some people tried, but they did so on the premise of this read, this read, and this read were correct instead off playing of whatever information they had and playing by theory. this is okay. the game was designed as a town stomp, and it was supposed to make you feel lost and disconnected from the game. i want you all to improve. you are good town members in and of itself, and you've had some of the best champs finalists come from this forum. that said, you have room for improvement. as you can see, this forum relies and plays off mod given information. even in the clean sweep of the mafia a few games back involving myself, while you were correct, you were relying on the hard reads. this game needs to utilize more theory into their game. in champs, you don't have meta reads. in champs, you have a brain, an understanding of the setup, and your greatest advantage will be out maneuvering other players through your express superiority in understanding how to create your own information and how to utilize any other information given to you. after playing a few flipless games, i would dare to put any of you into a champs game and bet on your win. 


this is what flipless does to your play.


now whether you believe that or not is up to you. i said the game was designed as a town stomp, but in truth, i designed it as a reality check. you are all strong players, but you are over encumbered with assumptions that you will always receive free information from the mod. as i put earlier, when you can create your own information and find a win in any setup, you will crush any other forum you ever play against. that long speech done, i hope you all, most importantly, had fun! obligatory &^@# you hoggers you dumpster fire of a host piece of $&!# loser &^@# you. 


I am finished. Goodbye.


A lot of good points. We take a lot of 'information' for granted as town and that usually gives us small and manageable PoEs to work with as a starting point. I may have to play a flipless game one of these days (not now!) because it really is an entirely different beast. Word-building and theorizing about all the possible wolf teams is already important but especially so in flipless. 


I'm not going to be too harsh on the town because this was a tough game to win. I think for us it may be fairest to have open or semi-open setups to go with any flipless games. The town needs some information to hold onto and use as a building point, imo, otherwise it's probably too easy for the wolves to control the game state.



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