naslund.is.king Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Just now, Blue Jay 22 said: Brackets: -------- LL NIK Intoews J23 Hoggers ------- Boknows Blinzer Kurisu -------- DM Qwags --------- MR OTIS MH -------- Zfetch Rocket ------- EP40 - I totally forgot he was playing until I checked the player list. I honestly have no idea or opinion on him. What makes Z so low? I’ve gotten so use to his play as of late that I really haven’t paid attention. like MR. -MR open Wolfs half the time and I think nothing of it DM, Qwags and Bo knows I’d have lower then Otis,MR and MH....DM and Qwags by meta and Bo knows because of entrance/ play Otis,MH,Ep40 are innactive. For me it’s a roll of a dice voting out innactives. One day we’ll get bitten in the ass by keeping them around but it’s hard to vote for someone for just being innactive Link to comment
Blue Jay 22 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Just now, naslund.is.king said: What makes Z so low? I’ve gotten so use to his play as of late that I really haven’t paid attention. like MR. -MR open Wolfs half the time and I think nothing of it DM, Qwags and Bo knows I’d have lower then Otis,MR and MH....DM and Qwags by meta and Bo knows because of entrance/ play Otis,MH,Ep40 are innactive. For me it’s a roll of a dice voting out innactives. One day we’ll get bitten in the ass by keeping them around but it’s hard to vote for someone for just being innactive Wasn't a banner R1 for Zfetch. Could be honest about his mafia fatigue, but I've also seen him use that as scum cover before. Biggest stand out of his R1 play was his vote on the PL wagon and connection, or rather lack of connection to GC16 and SS. They all voted on the PL wagon, yet they rarely talked about each other except for brief snippets. Each of their votes came around the same timeframe of each other as well. MR, Otis, and MH are in the current null bracket while DM and Qwags are in the 50/50 bracket...those 2 could very well jump back down into the pool with Rocket and Zfetch depending on how R2 goes. Link to comment
hoggers Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 Spoiler Zfetch (1) - DM TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager 6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22 Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23 Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Melvin (1) - EP40 Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23 DM (1) - EP40 J-23 (1) - , Intoews Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 linguine highlighted as scum here for posterity sake. this is votecounts down purely off fact and reason. no opinions or biased meshed in the way. this is for later on reference mostly. to detail what i'm seeing, scum were willing to sheep my read on linguine as i assumed he wasn't mafia, and so they were going to play it like i lynched him and move us like dominos. you can see gocanucks and sharpshooter both claim that my reads are good and they'll sheep them. however, i also begin to suspect an ulterior motive. i moved on the linguine wagon as the zfetch wagon was building momentum to see how much resistance they would have comparably. zfetch wagon had a lot of resistance, and not as many inactives moved onto it as you would think. it should also be documented that neither sharpshooter nor gocanucks moved onto zfetch though he was just as easy as a lynch at the time as pasta linguine was. aside from main building points, sharp on sixfive is a good look for him as well as the commentary sharp added. Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23 out of these 7 zfetch, sharp, gocanucks, and boknows never moved. blinzer, hoggers, and j23 eventually moved. j23 notably moved onto therocket cfd which held only his vote. also notable is at the end therocket joins this group to remain on linguine at the end of the day. as a final notation, the kill was off wagon. normally this would imply a wolf on wagon, but due to claim shenanigans and the mafia fearkill, it can be reasonably inferred that mafia shot the counterwagon once they realized the counterwagon wasn't going anywhere. Spoiler Zfetch (1) - DM TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager 6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22 Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23 Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Melvin (1) - EP40 Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23 DM (1) - EP40 J-23 (1) - , Intoews Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 this is filling in the blanks with the league of heroes. as it can be notated and by no small coincidence, they coincide on sharpshooter wagon relatively early. kurisu is a main benefactor who IS NOT green on here, but he sticks to his guns on sharpshooter almost the entire time. this cannot be conceived as tunneling in most universes, though there is a chance it took off when he wasn't around. this is a. not likely, and b. disproven by timestamps in thread. another point is that qwags is actually the vote to tie the linguine and sharpshooter wagons. if he was going to bus, that was probably the worst moment. i suspect that mafia would wait until sharpshooter was doomed before committing to the buss as intoews and blinzer did. based on vote formations and patterns, qwags can be reasonably cleared based off how he voted. (cleared used in the most lax and relaxed form of it. cleared by no means, but a solid townread based off it). this is where things start to get spicy. Spoiler Zfetch (1) - DM TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager 6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22 Zfetch (4) - DM, mr, otis, bluejay dm - ep40, boknows TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch, sharp Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers, gocanucks16 Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager 6FT5 (2) - Qwags gocanucks - j23 Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23 Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Melvin (1) - EP40 Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23 DM (1) - EP40 J-23 (1) - , Intoews Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, Zfetch Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18 DM (1) - EP40 Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer TheRocket18 (1) - J-23 as an aside, an extra votecount was added to show where zfetch begins to get pressured. zfetch collects votes on him and the scumteam seems to move to save him. under these pretenses, the voting makes absolute sense. qwags, the villager, has canucks pushing him, but as soon as he loses momentum, canucks goes to vote on linguine which sharpshooter and zfetch both later join off the wagon of therocket. this may be a good look for him depending on how we flip zfetch. they then stagnate on linguine as that seems to be the only wagon to save them. it's likely maybe, maybe 1 scum hopped off, but based on the colorings, it seems the wagon on sharpshooter was very stagnantly green. it's possible that intoews or blinzer hopped over. intoews however had the killing vote on sharp when blinzer was present. kurisu is added to these list of possible busses, but he remained on sharpshooter the entire day through the lynch and was creating content, too. not dependant on wagon analysis, but the j23 and how he handled the sheriff thing came across as town. i could probably mark him as town along with his reaction to sharpshooters posting, but that had nothing to do with the wagon analysis as he was mainly off any contending wagons and did his own thing. therocket hops up in standings as he seemed to be jumped by two wolves simultaneously. based off this, vote zfetch is pretty essential just in case my later reads are wildly off track. i am interested in {intoews, otis} and want to hear from @Master Radishes. i individually townread dm regardless of wagons. {milk and honey, ep40, boknows} i need to see more of. 1 1 1 Link to comment
hoggers Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 off the top zfetch, sharp, gocanucks is a given. a mixture of {otis, intoews} {boknows, ep40, m&h} with preference towards boknows is likely. master radishes could be blown in either direction by a strong breeze. Link to comment
Qwags Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 2 hours ago, luckylager said: BJ, Toews, NIK, J23, Hoggers. I doubt any of you guys are maf and I want to roll with you. 1 hour ago, Intoewsables said: Very likely town: hoggers, BJ, J-23, LL Literally circlejerking each other. 1 1 Link to comment
J-23 Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Qwags said: Literally circlejerking each other. Somebody sounds jealous. 1 Link to comment
Qwags Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 In that case, Zfetch should be our primary lynch target? 1 1 Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, hoggers said: master radishes could be blown in either direction by a strong breeze. Blow on me and find out which direction I go. Link to comment
Qwags Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Master Radishes said: Blow on me and find out which direction I go. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Link to comment
Kurisu Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 6 hours ago, Blue Jay 22 said: @Kurisu Did GC16 ever PM you? Not outside of the Mafia PM, no 1 Link to comment
Kurisu Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 6 hours ago, Intoewsables said: What do we make of Sharpie fixating on PL's very obvious fake peek on Rocket? He was just looking for a low-consequence elimination that would get blood on someone else's hands. It's what gave him away as scum for me and should also clear Rocket for the time being. Play makes no sense if SS and Rocket are w/w. Link to comment
luckylager Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 4 hours ago, Kurisu said: He was just looking for a low-consequence elimination that would get blood on someone else's hands. It's what gave him away as scum for me and should also clear Rocket for the time being. Play makes no sense if SS and Rocket are w/w. Agreed, the timing of Rocket's vote on PL looks super rank, but there are good reasons to not vote for him. Hoggers wagon analysis is awesome. I'm used to Z having lacklustre D1's lately and the only thing in his play that's really stuck out as scummy was wanting to RNG his N1 vote, which happened to be Rocket, and as we can see in Hogs breakdown, Sharp was also on the Rocket vote before going PL. Would Sharpy rest his vote on a teammate? I dont think he would, he was a noble and solid teammate when we scummed together. If we also assume Zfetch is mafia, the chances of Rocket being scum get even smaller as they really had no reason to be shading or bussing a teammate at that point in the game. Z "RNG'd" SS "Believed PL's sheriff claim, but voted for him anyways to test hoggers read" (the most hilarious rationale of all time) Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 *slaps self* *slaps again* Let's go MR. LET'S GO. 16 hours ago, falcon45ca said: VOTE COUNT: Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23 DM (1) - EP40 J-23 (2) - luckylager, Intoews Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, Zfetch Sharpshooter (3) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22 2.5 hours before deadline. We already have lots of info here - two scum are joining the Pastawagon. Is there a third? Conventional wagonomics leans against that idea, but Zfetch's vote was super wagony. So was Bo's but he has a get-out-of-jail card for being new. Blinzer fairly null - seems like the type to just follow hoggers in anything regardless of alignment (within the context of being still new on this forum). The earliest SS voters are almost certainly town. If hoggers were scum he likely would not have felt any need to change to bus SS - there wasn't that much momentum. So almost immediately I think the likely PoE is {Bo, Zfetch, Blinzer, EP, MH, Otis}. I'm removing a few other names for independently being townie, not for wagon reasons. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 16 hours ago, Blinzer said: When does day end? I like Hoggers pool of Zfetch, SS, and PL. This could be a player salad. Leaving options wide open, considering those are all three of the viable wagons. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 16 hours ago, Qwags said: Fine, since we're playing that way. Vote SS. Yuck. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 16 hours ago, Kurisu said: Bussing won't save you, Quetzalcoatl 16 hours ago, luckylager said: Quetzalcoatl takes dirtybird to a whole new level <3 Link to comment
DarthMelvin Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 6 hours ago, Kurisu said: Not outside of the Mafia PM, no So only in mafia pm lol Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 16 hours ago, Blinzer said: @hoggers Give me the rundown of Professor Liguine and Sharpshooter. I don't like how Prof just slanked. Yuck. Link to comment
Master Radishes Posted July 7, 2020 Share Posted July 7, 2020 15 hours ago, J-23 said: MR folded on us when we needed him most. You guys don't need me. You've never needed me. It's been in you all along. 1 Link to comment
Recommended Posts