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Mafia: Return of the Autobots - GAME OVER! AUTOBOTS/MAFIA WIN!

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Just now, Blue Jay 22 said:

Brackets:

--------

LL

NIK

Intoews

J23

Hoggers

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Boknows

Blinzer

Kurisu

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DM

Qwags

---------

MR

OTIS

MH

--------

Zfetch

Rocket

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EP40 - I totally forgot he was playing until I checked the player list. I honestly have no idea or opinion on him.

What makes Z so low? I’ve gotten so use to his play as of late that I really haven’t paid attention. like MR.   -MR open Wolfs half the time and I think nothing of it

DM, Qwags and Bo knows I’d have lower then Otis,MR and MH....DM and Qwags by meta and Bo knows because of entrance/ play

Otis,MH,Ep40 are innactive. For me it’s a roll of a dice voting out innactives. One day we’ll get bitten in the ass by keeping them around but it’s hard to vote for someone for just being innactive 

 

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Just now, naslund.is.king said:

What makes Z so low? I’ve gotten so use to his play as of late that I really haven’t paid attention. like MR.   -MR open Wolfs half the time and I think nothing of it

DM, Qwags and Bo knows I’d have lower then Otis,MR and MH....DM and Qwags by meta and Bo knows because of entrance/ play

Otis,MH,Ep40 are innactive. For me it’s a roll of a dice voting out innactives. One day we’ll get bitten in the ass by keeping them around but it’s hard to vote for someone for just being innactive 

 

Wasn't a banner R1 for Zfetch. Could be honest about his mafia fatigue, but I've also seen him use that as scum cover before. Biggest stand out of his R1 play was his vote on the PL wagon and connection, or rather lack of connection to GC16 and SS. They all voted on the PL wagon, yet they rarely talked about each other except for brief snippets. Each of their votes came around the same timeframe of each other as well. MR, Otis, and MH are in the current null bracket while DM and Qwags are in the 50/50 bracket...those 2 could very well jump back down into the pool with Rocket and Zfetch depending on how R2 goes.

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Spoiler

 

Zfetch (1) - DM

TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch

Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers

Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags

GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22

 

Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23

Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis

Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Melvin (1) - EP40

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23

DM (1) - EP40

J-23 (1) - , Intoews

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

linguine highlighted as scum here for posterity sake. this is votecounts down purely off fact and reason. no opinions or biased meshed in the way. this is for later on reference mostly. to detail what i'm seeing, scum were willing to sheep my read on linguine as i assumed he wasn't mafia, and so they were going to play it like i lynched him and move us like dominos. you can see gocanucks and sharpshooter both claim that my reads are good and they'll sheep them.

 

however, i also begin to suspect an ulterior motive. i moved on the linguine wagon as the zfetch wagon was building momentum to see how much resistance they would have comparably. zfetch wagon had a lot of resistance, and not as many inactives moved onto it as you would think. it should also be documented that neither sharpshooter nor gocanucks moved onto zfetch though he was just as easy as a lynch at the time as pasta linguine was. aside from main building points, sharp on sixfive is a good look for him as well as the commentary sharp added.

 

Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23

out of these 7

zfetch, sharp, gocanucks, and boknows never moved. blinzer, hoggers, and j23 eventually moved. j23 notably moved onto therocket cfd which held only his vote. also notable is at the end therocket joins this group to remain on linguine at the end of the day. 

 

as a final notation, the kill was off wagon. normally this would imply a wolf on wagon, but due to claim shenanigans and the mafia fearkill, it can be reasonably inferred that mafia shot the counterwagon once they realized the counterwagon wasn't going anywhere. 

 

Spoiler

 

Zfetch (1) - DM

TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch

Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers

Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags

GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22

 

Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23

Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis

Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Melvin (1) - EP40

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23

DM (1) - EP40

J-23 (1) - , Intoews

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

this is filling in the blanks with the league of heroes. as it can be notated and by no small coincidence, they coincide on sharpshooter wagon relatively early. kurisu is a main benefactor who IS NOT green on here, but he sticks to his guns on sharpshooter almost the entire time. this cannot be conceived as tunneling in most universes, though there is a chance it took off when he wasn't around. this is a. not likely, and b. disproven by timestamps in thread.

 

another point is that qwags is actually the vote to tie the linguine and sharpshooter wagons. if he was going to bus, that was probably the worst moment. i suspect that mafia would wait until sharpshooter was doomed before committing to the buss as intoews and blinzer did. based on vote formations and patterns, qwags can be reasonably cleared based off how he voted. (cleared used in the most lax and relaxed form of it. cleared by no means, but a solid townread based off it).

 

this is where things start to get spicy. 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Zfetch (1) - DM

TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch

Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers

Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, GoCanucks16, Kurisu

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

6FT5 (2) - Sharpshooter, Qwags

GoCanucks16 (1) - BJ22

 

Zfetch (4) - DM, mr, otis, bluejay

dm - ep40, boknows

TheRocket18 (1) - Zfetch, sharp

Professor Linguine (2) - 6FT5, hoggers, gocanucks16

Qwags (3) - Milk & Honey, Kurisu

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

6FT5 (2) - Qwags

gocanucks - j23

 

Professor Linguine (7) - Blinzer, hoggers, GoCanucks16, Sharpshooter, zFetch, BoKnows, J23

Zfetch (3) - DM, Radish, Otis

Sharpshooter (3) - Kurisu, Bluejay, Luckylager

J23 (2) - Intoews, luckylager

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Melvin (1) - EP40

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23

DM (1) - EP40

J-23 (1) - , Intoews

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter(6) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, Zfetch

Sharpshooter (7) - BJ22, Intoews, hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

Professor Linguine (5) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, TheRocket18

DM (1) - EP40

Qwags (2) - Milk & Honey, 

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, DM

Sharpshooter (8) - BJ22hoggers, Kurisu, luckylager, NIK, Qwags, Intoews, Blinzer

TheRocket18 (1) - J-23

 

as an aside, an extra votecount was added to show where zfetch begins to get pressured.

 

zfetch collects votes on him and the scumteam seems to move to save him. under these pretenses, the voting makes absolute sense. qwags, the villager, has canucks pushing him, but as soon as he loses momentum, canucks goes to vote on linguine which sharpshooter and zfetch both later join off the wagon of therocket. this may be a good look for him depending on how we flip zfetch. they then stagnate on linguine as that seems to be the only wagon to save them. it's likely maybe, maybe 1 scum hopped off, but based on the colorings, it seems the wagon on sharpshooter was very stagnantly green. it's possible that intoews or blinzer hopped over. intoews however had the killing vote on sharp when blinzer was present. kurisu is added to these list of possible busses, but he remained on sharpshooter the entire day through the lynch and was creating content, too.

 

not dependant on wagon analysis, but the j23 and how he handled the sheriff thing came across as town. i could probably mark him as town along with his reaction to sharpshooters posting, but that had nothing to do with the wagon analysis as he was mainly off any contending wagons and did his own thing. therocket hops up in standings as he seemed to be jumped by two wolves simultaneously. 

 

 

based off this, vote zfetch is pretty essential just in case my later reads are wildly off track. i am interested in {intoews, otis} and want to hear from @Master Radishes. i individually townread dm regardless of wagons. {milk and honey, ep40, boknows} i need to see more of.

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2 hours ago, luckylager said:

BJ, Toews, NIK, J23, Hoggers.

 

I doubt any of you guys are maf and I want to roll with you. 

 

1 hour ago, Intoewsables said:

Very likely town: hoggers, BJ, J-23, LL

Literally circlejerking each other. 

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6 hours ago, Intoewsables said:

What do we make of Sharpie fixating on PL's very obvious fake peek on Rocket?

He was just looking for a low-consequence elimination that would get blood on someone else's hands. It's what gave him away as scum for me and should also clear Rocket for the time being. Play makes no sense if SS and Rocket are w/w.

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4 hours ago, Kurisu said:

He was just looking for a low-consequence elimination that would get blood on someone else's hands. It's what gave him away as scum for me and should also clear Rocket for the time being. Play makes no sense if SS and Rocket are w/w.

Agreed, the timing of Rocket's vote on PL looks super rank, but there are good reasons to not vote for him.

 

Hoggers wagon analysis is awesome. I'm used to Z having lacklustre D1's lately and the only thing in his play that's really stuck out as scummy was wanting to RNG his N1 vote, which happened to be Rocket, and as we can see in Hogs breakdown, Sharp was also on the Rocket vote before going PL. 

Would Sharpy rest his vote on a teammate? I dont think he would, he was a noble and solid teammate when we scummed together. If we also assume Zfetch is mafia, the chances of Rocket being scum get even smaller as they really had no reason to be shading or bussing a teammate at that point in the game.

Z "RNG'd"

SS "Believed PL's sheriff claim, but voted for him anyways to test hoggers read" (the most hilarious rationale of all time)

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*slaps self*

 

*slaps again*

 

Let's go MR.

 

LET'S GO.

 

16 hours ago, falcon45ca said:

VOTE COUNT:

 

Professor Linguine (6) - GoCanucks16, BoKnows, Sharpshooter, Zfetch, Blinzer, J-23

DM (1) - EP40

J-23 (2) - luckylager, Intoews

Qwags (1) - Milk & Honey

Kurisu (1) - Professor Linguine

Zfetch (3) - Otis, MR, Zfetch

Sharpshooter (3) - hoggers, Kurisu, BJ22

2.5 hours before deadline. We already have lots of info here - two scum are joining the Pastawagon. Is there a third? Conventional wagonomics leans against that idea, but Zfetch's vote was super wagony. So was Bo's but he has a get-out-of-jail card for being new. Blinzer fairly null - seems like the type to just follow hoggers in anything regardless of alignment (within the context of being still new on this forum).

 

The earliest SS voters are almost certainly town. If hoggers were scum he likely would not have felt any need to change to bus SS - there wasn't that much momentum.

 

So almost immediately I think the likely PoE is {Bo, Zfetch, Blinzer, EP, MH, Otis}. I'm removing a few other names for independently being townie, not for wagon reasons.

 

 

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