Realistic best case / worst case cap implications [discussion]

[wildcam]

During this covid cap freeze time players will be taking lees? Managers can't give these ridiculous offers to free agents and RFA for next 3 years..

Taffoli = in normal world 5.4 x 4 yrs...Now 4.9 million X 3-4 yrs

Markstrom -- normal world 5.8 million -- Now 5.3 X 3 yrs -- 4th yr option..

Jake -- 20 goal scorer -- 1 yr show me more 1.9 -- Possible they move jake for # 3 D man --- Don't resign Tanev..

Demko --- will be moved if they sign Markstrom--- late 1st rounder in return... Maybe make trade with Detroit get 2nd rounder early pick 34 overall and 4th rounder

Leivo-- 2 yrs X 1.6 show me more

MacEwen - 2 yrs X 1.2 million per -- One way deal

Motte - 1 million X2 - 4th liner and PK

Stetcher -- demand 2.5 x 3 yrs  -- Rafferty can fill #5 spot  for $ 700,000

Tanev -- RFA -- Don't resign will demand 4.8 X 4 yrs -- 31,  in December  had serious injuries will fill in trade or UFA

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by wildcam

[mll]

2 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Good job Jimmy!

 

I have been wrestling with this one, and honestly, we don't get out of this one without pain!

 

I am starting to feel that Virtanen and Demko are the cost

 

Something like

 

Virtanen (3M) + Eriksson(6M)      to      Ottawa for Marian Gaborik (LTIR) + Ottawa's 2020-3rd

and 

Demko(2M) + Sutter(4.375M)       to        Detroit for Daren Helm @ 50% (1 yr) (1.95M) + Edmonton's 2020-2nd

 

My thinking on Virtanen is that Vancouver will sign Toffoli, giving us 2 top RW's, then McEwen steps in for a Virtanen on 3rd line for a year until Podkolzin arrives

and my thinking on Sutter/Helm is there is not much difference in talent, Demko gives Detroit a goalie of the future

while only costing them a late 2nd.

 

It gets rid of approx 15.5 Million - Helm's 1.95M = Approx. 13.5 M savings, plus/minus a back goalie to replace Demko. I think gets us just as far, in the end. 

 

In the end, I still don't think this is our time yet, and we are still 2 years away from being a competitive team (top 10), if we are lucky!

 

Hopefully, Benning doesn't get any stupid idea's with the extra cap..............just re-sign who we have

 

 

 

Gaborik's contract is insured.  Eriksson's is not.  Ottawa also has a lot of youth to renew next season.  Eriksson has that extra year and it could limit their ability to retain key players - just like it is now the Canucks.  

 

Friedman has been repeating that Melnyk is on record that they are not going to spend more than necessary until 2021/22.  The Gaborik contracts helps him limit his losses.

Next season the owners are going to lose money.  Everything they spend beyond the salary floor just increases their losses.   The Canucks just fired 49 people and there is expected to be more to come in a few months.  Owners are losing money and won't necessarily just spend like in past years.  No team including Ottawa will have trouble reaching the floor.  This season the lowest spending team was above the floor by 12M.   

 

Also doubtful teams want to spend 9M in cap space on players who don't really move the needle.  Quite a few teams are going to have to let go better players for cap reasons.  Teams are probably more on the lookout for a JT Miller type player than taking cap dump contracts. 

Virtanen doesn't have that kind of trade value anymore.  He might not even make game 1 and MacIntyre just had that article wondering if he's not F15 on the Canucks' depth chart.  Other teams read those article and see the quote by Green where he says he iced the team that gave him the best chance to win - he's not even ahead of MacEwen.  Friedman says a lot of teams have been upset with him breaking protocol.  Teams pick up on that.

 

Ottawa is a rebuilding team with a lot of youth - they want to set the right culture. Work hard, play the right way, be a pro. That's not the image Virtanen has given.

Every media outlet and even Tryamkin's agent says it's apparent that the Canucks are in cap mess.  Teams are likely going to exploit the situation.  Canucks are the ones looking to clear cap space.   It's going to cost them more to move unwanted contracts and it might not even be possible with the cap flat and teams wanting to retain flexibility to keep their own key players.

 

It's going to be a fair bit more complicated to move contracts that are not ELCs or top end players.  Middle/bottom of the lineup players could be more cap in for cap out - Pearson for Gudbranson, Neal for Lucic type trades rather than cap clearing trades.  

 

Goalies don't have that kind of trade value unless they show that they can do it - Demko hasn't.  He likely wouldn't even bring back a 2nd on his own.  Teams also know that there is expansion and that he will be exposed if Markstrom is re-signed. They can make a deal with Seattle too.  Sutter did not look good vs Winnipeg and has slowed down this season and was again injured.  Teams would probably ask for his medical records before making a trade.  A buyout seems more likely than a trade - if he is injured he can't be bought out though.

Also not every team will necessarily have an AHL team to play at next season.  Teams, especially rebuilding ones who aren't quite contenders yet, might promote prospects earlier.  They need those spots to play them rather than give them to players who don't fit their timeline and have their prospects sit at home.  

 

Edited July 31, 2020 by mll

[J.I.A.H.N]

23 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Gaborik's contract is insured.  Eriksson's is not.  Ottawa also has a lot of youth to renew next season.  Eriksson has that extra year and it could limit their ability to retain key players - just like it is now the Canucks.  

 

Friedman has been repeating that Melnyk is on record that they are not going to spend more than necessary until 2021/22.  The Gaborik contracts helps him limit his losses.

Next season the owners are going to lose money.  Everything they spend beyond the salary floor just increases their losses.   The Canucks just fired 49 people and there is expected to be more to come in a few months.  Owners are losing money and won't necessarily just spend like in past years.  No team including Ottawa will have trouble reaching the floor.  This season the lowest spending team was above the floor by 12M.   

 

Also doubtful teams want to spend 9M in cap space on players who don't really move the needle.  Quite a few teams are going to have to let go better players for cap reasons.  Teams are probably more on the lookout for a JT Miller type player than taking cap dump contracts. 

Virtanen doesn't have that kind of trade value anymore.  He might not even make game 1 and MacIntyre just had that article wondering if he's not F15 on the Canucks' depth chart.  Other teams read those article and see the quote by Green where he says he iced the team that gave him the best chance to win - he's not even ahead of MacEwen.  Friedman says a lot of teams have been upset with him breaking protocol.  Teams pick up on that.

 

Ottawa is a rebuilding team with a lot of youth - they want to set the right culture. Work hard, play the right way, be a pro. That's not the image Virtanen has given.

Every media outlet and even Tryamkin's agent says it's apparent that the Canucks are in cap mess.  Teams are likely going to exploit the situation.  Canucks are the ones looking to clear cap space.   It's going to cost them more to move unwanted contracts and it might not even be possible with the cap flat and teams wanting to retain flexibility to keep their own key players.

 

It's going to be a fair bit more complicated to move contracts that are not ELCs or top end players.  Middle/bottom of the lineup players could be more cap in for cap out - Pearson for Gudbranson, Neal for Lucic type trades rather than cap clearing trades.  

 

Goalies don't have that kind of trade value unless they show that they can do it - Demko hasn't.  He likely wouldn't even bring back a 2nd on his own.  Teams also know that there is expansion and that he will be exposed if Markstrom is re-signed. They can make a deal with Seattle too.  Sutter did not look good vs Winnipeg and has slowed down this season and was again injured.  Teams would probably ask for his medical records before making a trade.  A buyout seems more likely than a trade - if he is injured he can't be bought out though.

Also not every team will necessarily have an AHL team to play at next season.  Teams, especially rebuilding ones who aren't quite contenders yet, might promote prospects earlier.  They need those spots to play them rather than give them to players who don't fit their timeline and have their prospects sit at home.  

 

You might want to take a look at Ottawa again

They spent 50 million on players this year

and additional 19 Million on LTIR of which Anders Nilsson and Mark Boroweicki  are the only active players. (10.5 Million which is coming off the books)

in addition 2 of their roster players are 39 year old Ron Hainsey 3.5 Million and 39 year old Craig Anderson 4.75 Million are UFA and I doubt are re-signed

But it is true Chabot will get a big raise (8 Million) an increase of 7 Million, but the other guys will be 10% raises at best.......aka Covid - controlled.

IMO...Ottawa's Cap budget will be close to the same, if not lower.

 

Now about Virtanen......and you can agree or disagree, but you are half right......his PR is not good, but he is not "Trouble" just does stupid $&!#

So he is not cancer, and I believe that Benning, Green and Melnyk for that matter know that.

 

Also, Virtanen had 18/18 season, which translates to a 21/21 Season over 82 games, not bad for a 23 year old power forward. Yes, he is in the dog house, but he has some great stats outside of his scoring, which is basically at a 2nd line level........again at 23........you bet GM's read the paper.........he is by no means, someone you just pass by, especially as his stats are improving year over year. Virtanen will play alot longer than Green will coach in this league.

 

Demko................I am reminded of a Vancouver/St. Louis game this year, where he stood on his head. He has skill and he is known around the league, I read somewhere he is ranked in the top 10 of young NHL goalies..........Just think about how long Markstrom took to develop, and I would put a dollar on the fact that Demko is farther along than Markstrom was at the same age. Yes, he is not at Markstroms level now, but my bet is he develops into a starter...probably somewhere else, but he will. Detroit is not going to be offered a Demko calibre goalie, that has had time put into his development, for chump change........IMO, his value is a very late  late 1st to mid second pick. And Detroit would pay that, in a vacuum. this is also the year Detroit has enough picks to buy him.

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

2 hours ago, wildcam said:

During this covid cap freeze time players will be taking lees? Managers can't give these ridiculous offers to free agents and RFA for next 3 years..

Taffoli = in normal world 5.4 x 4 yrs...Now 4.9 million X 3-4 yrs

Markstrom -- normal world 5.8 million -- Now 5.3 X 3 yrs -- 4th yr option..

Jake -- 20 goal scorer -- 1 yr show me more 1.9 -- Possible they move jake for # 3 D man --- Don't resign Tanev..

Demko --- will be moved if they sign Markstrom--- late 1st rounder in return... Maybe make trade with Detroit get 2nd rounder early pick 34 overall and 4th rounder

Leivo-- 2 yrs X 1.6 show me more

MacEwen - 2 yrs X 1.2 million per -- One way deal

Motte - 1 million X2 - 4th liner and PK

Stetcher -- demand 2.5 x 3 yrs  -- Rafferty can fill #5 spot  for $ 700,000

Tanev -- RFA -- Don't resign will demand 4.8 X 4 yrs -- 31,  in December  had serious injuries will fill in trade or UFA

 

I don't know about your numbers.......but I get your point! It is valid.

It will be interesting to see, for sure!

[Canuck Surfer]

9 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Does the math below work?

Myers the only RHD? I know u pencilled Tanev back in, but...

[J.I.A.H.N]

Also @mll

 

Your point is valid in that Gaborik's contract is insured, but if the Canucks trade Eriksson after his 3 million Bonus, then Melnyk gets a 12 Million Cap hit for 5 Million

 

Now, Eriksson is not a top line player, but does play a decent defensive game, which Ottawa might need with all the young kids playing........no Eriksson does not get picked up by himself, but with Virtanen..........it  might be worth the pain....it is not exactly like Ottawa is burning the league up.

[smithers joe]

what would it cost to buy out louie’s final 5 mil  of his contract? it should be spread over 4 years. am i reading this wrong?

[TheRealistOptimist]

Baertschi and Sutter have no business being buyout options. We have 3 slots to retain money on in trades...USE THEM. You can find a suitor for Sutter at 2.1 and Baertschi at 1.7 without giving up much. That saves you about 2.5 million right there. Buying them out is essentially the same cost as retaining half in a trade except they count an extra year against the cap. 

 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Cory Schneider for Loui Eriksson. Canucks buyout Schneider (NJ tells Schneider he's getting bought out either way) which carries a 2.0 cap hit for 4 years (Van gets 4 million dollar savings for 2 years). NJ saves at least 3 million in real life dollars and the cap hit doesn't matter to them this year or probably next. but they could buyout Eriksson at any point if they wanted. In a pandemic saving 3+ million in real dollars could be a real benefit to a team. I don't think you would need to add much, if anything as a sweetener. Otherwise, I just wait out Loui's contract for at least another year and send him to the minors.

 

I don't sign Marky for over 5.5 (preferably no more than 5.0). I am actually open to letting him walk and going with Demko. 

I sign Toffoli for 5.25 max. 

I would be willing to let Tanev walk as well but I could see him coming back for around 5 million

I sign Stecher for 3.2 and Virtanen for 2.5. Those are big enough raises that I think they would sign them. If Stecher doesn't accept that than I try and trade him or let him walk and that frees up more cap space.

 

If you need cap space, I would trade Pearson and his 3.75 cap hit because I don't see him being signed long term after next year, I also can't see us trading him at next years deadline if we are in a playoff race. So with his little bit of a resurgence, I think we could actually get a decent asset back in return for him now.

 

Were not going to be adding much this offseason and that's ok. Were still a young team with at formidable top 6 (with or without Pearson).

[TheRealistOptimist]

2 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

what would it cost to buy out louie’s final 5 mil  of his contract? it should be spread over 4 years. am i reading this wrong?

2020-21 - $5,666,667

2021-22 - $3,666,667

2022-23 - $666,667

2023-24 - $666,667

 

Unfortunately it makes little to no sense to buy him out this year as the Canucks would save more by burying him in the minors in 2020-21.

[Ghostsof1915]

46 minutes ago, TheRealistOptimist said:

2020-21 - $5,666,667

2021-22 - $3,666,667

2022-23 - $666,667

2023-24 - $666,667

 

Unfortunately it makes little to no sense to buy him out this year as the Canucks would save more by burying him in the minors in 2020-21.

Raises the question, can you bury someone in the minors if the teams aren't operating? 

[JM_]

13 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Your numbers look realistic to me. Hard to engage in that too deeply..AAV/term could be tweaked, or even NMC/NTC's where JB decides to risk it.

 

I see a bigger factor at play, that I haven't really seen discussed anywheres, tbh

 

Will Van become a MIGHTY desired destination, all of a sudden? If you're a young pro athlete, do you really wanna' be around all that political, social (& gunsy) discord down in the lower 48?! I wouldn't. I get the impression ownership(alongside an impressive alumni) will make Van appear a mighty special place, where devoted vets are well taken care of. Already a rising team(young stars) in a beautiful gem of a landscape.

 

It's for this^ reason I haven't spent much time concerned about our AAV numbers. If guys really want to be here,(& they make a tangible impact) they'll find a way.

I think if Jim can fix the cap issues then I do think you are correct, particularly for NCAA UFAs looking for both a spot and an exciting team to play on. 

[smithers joe]

1 hour ago, TheRealistOptimist said:

2020-21 - $5,666,667

2021-22 - $3,666,667

2022-23 - $666,667

2023-24 - $666,667

 

Unfortunately it makes little to no sense to buy him out this year as the Canucks would save more by burying him in the minors in 2020-21.

to me, if we owe him 5 mil and we give him 5 mil, his contract should be paid. we don’t owe him 12 mil. 

[Ghostsof1915]

18 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

to me, if we owe him 5 mil and we give him 5 mil, his contract should be paid. we don’t owe him 12 mil. 

Doesn't work like that Joe. Guaranteed contracts. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, TheRealistOptimist said:

Baertschi and Sutter have no business being buyout options. We have 3 slots to retain money on in trades...USE THEM. You can find a suitor for Sutter at 2.1 and Baertschi at 1.7 without giving up much. That saves you about 2.5 million right there. Buying them out is essentially the same cost as retaining half in a trade except they count an extra year against the cap. 

The reason I picked buyout for the 1st scenario is because I wanted to know what the team looks like if Jim can't find a trade partner and he only has the options under his control to get the team cap compliant.  He may not find a willing and/or reasonable suitor for any trades this offseason.

 

1 hour ago, TheRealistOptimist said:

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Cory Schneider for Loui Eriksson. Canucks buyout Schneider (NJ tells Schneider he's getting bought out either way) which carries a 2.0 cap hit for 4 years (Van gets 4 million dollar savings for 2 years). NJ saves at least 3 million in real life dollars and the cap hit doesn't matter to them this year or probably next. but they could buyout Eriksson at any point if they wanted. In a pandemic saving 3+ million in real dollars could be a real benefit to a team. I don't think you would need to add much, if anything as a sweetener. Otherwise, I just wait out Loui's contract for at least another year and send him to the minors

I don't know that going for a 4 year cap implication is something Jim's going to try to sell Aqulini on.... given his history I just don't see it. 

 

1 hour ago, TheRealistOptimist said:

If you need cap space, I would trade Pearson and his 3.75 cap hit because I don't see him being signed long term after next year, I also can't see us trading him at next years deadline if we are in a playoff race. So with his little bit of a resurgence, I think we could actually get a decent asset back in return for him now.

He could probably recover a 2nd rounder as well. 

[JM_]

11 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Good job Jimmy!

 

I have been wrestling with this one, and honestly, we don't get out of this one without pain!

 

I am starting to feel that Virtanen and Demko are the cost

 

Something like

 

Virtanen (3M) + Eriksson(6M)      to      Ottawa for Marian Gaborik (LTIR) + Ottawa's 2020-3rd

and 

Demko(2M) + Sutter(4.375M)       to        Detroit for Daren Helm @ 50% (1 yr) (1.95M) + Edmonton's 2020-2nd

 

My thinking on Virtanen is that Vancouver will sign Toffoli, giving us 2 top RW's, then McEwen steps in for a Virtanen on 3rd line for a year until Podkolzin arrives

and my thinking on Sutter/Helm is there is not much difference in talent, Demko gives Detroit a goalie of the future

while only costing them a late 2nd.

 

It gets rid of approx 15.5 Million - Helm's 1.95M = Approx. 13.5 M savings, plus/minus a back goalie to replace Demko. I think gets us just as far, in the end. 

 

In the end, I still don't think this is our time yet, and we are still 2 years away from being a competitive team (top 10), if we are lucky!

 

Hopefully, Benning doesn't get any stupid idea's with the extra cap..............just re-sign who we have

 

 

I tend to agree with you Jan, Demko and probably Jake are gone. I left Jake in at 3 mil on the roster but maybe that just turns into cap space as well.

 

[smithers joe]

6 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Doesn't work like that Joe. Guaranteed contracts. 

that doesn’t make sense. i’m not a lawyer but if you paid me all you owed me and paid it ahead of schedule, i’ld be happy and that should be legal. 

[Ghostsof1915]

9 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

that doesn’t make sense. i’m not a lawyer but if you paid me all you owed me and paid it ahead of schedule, i’ld be happy and that should be legal. 

Sports is not the "real world". You don't work for Tesla, then Tesla trades you to Ford for other employees and cash. 

I know of no other business is that you're in a union, and you get the right to negotiate your own wage based on performance. 

 

This might help. But the bottom line is this is what the collective bargaining agreement is between the players and the owners.

 

https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator

[qwijibo]

40 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

to me, if we owe him 5 mil and we give him 5 mil, his contract should be paid. we don’t owe him 12 mil. 

The AAV of the contract is the average salary over the life of the contract.  He was paid $8m, $8m, $7m over the first 3 years of his contract but the Canucks only had a cap hit of $6m.  So no, the Canucks don’t owe him $12m. But they do have to account for cap advantage they had in the first 3 years of the contract 

[JM_]

1 minute ago, qwijibo said:

The AAV of the contract is the average salary over the life of the contract.  He was paid $8m, $8m, $7m over the first 3 years of his contract but the Canucks only had a cap hit of $6m.  So no, the Canucks don’t owe him $12m. But they do have to account for cap advantage they had in the first 3 years of the contract 

The only team that Loui's contract might be useful to is Ottawa, if Melnyk is going to try to stick to the cap floor this year. Anythings possible, and given the losses he'll take with no seat sales at all I do wonder if he'll try to get Dorion to actually try to do that. 

 

For next season in particular Loui could save them up to 5 million in real salary outlay. 

[qwijibo]

5 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

The only team that Loui's contract might be useful to is Ottawa, if Melnyk is going to try to stick to the cap floor this year. Anythings possible, and given the losses he'll take with no seat sales at all I do wonder if he'll try to get Dorion to actually try to do that. 

 

For next season in particular Loui could save them up to 5 million in real salary outlay. 

Ottawa only have 9 players signed for next season accounting for $41.9m of cap.  They only need to spend $18.3m on 12/14 players to hit the cap floor.  They really don’t “need” Eriksson to hit the floor. They’ll easily hit it just by filling out the roster.