Realistic best case / worst case cap implications [discussion]

[wildcam]

8 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

I don't know about your numbers.......but I get your point! It is valid.

It will be interesting to see, for sure!

Yes off season will be very exciting between Oct 1 and Dec 1..Will be the draft, UFA and RFA moving and teams having to watch there cap because of the uncertain market for next 2-4 years..

[JM_]

Just now, qwijibo said:

Ottawa only have 9 players signed for next season accounting for $41.9m of cap.  They only need to spend $18.3m on 12/14 players to hit the cap floor.  They really don’t “need” Eriksson to hit the floor. They’ll easily hit it just by filling out the roster. 

for sure they could. Thats why I said "might" - Melnyk does have the option to save money if he chooses that route. Even if they don't use all of the 5 mil difference between Loui's real 1 mil in salary and his 6 mil AAV, they could use a nice chunk of it. Melnyk strikes me as the kind of owner that wouldn't mind not spending 1 or 2 mil he doesn't have to next year. 

 

We'd have to add some significant sweeteners to that deal for sure as well, I would think Lind, Woo + picks as a opener. 

[Chris12345]

"Worst case scenario" is Tanev, Marky, and TT walk.

[JM_]

2 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

"Worst case scenario" is Tanev, Marky, and TT walk.

Not realistically tho. Marky wants to be here, it sounds very positive. But if he did walk, and TT did too we could easily keep Tanev or go for Pietrangelo for that matter, we'd have more than 11+ available without Marky or TT. 

[Chris12345]

3 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

Not realistically tho. Marky wants to be here, it sounds very positive. But if he did walk, and TT did too we could easily keep Tanev or go for Pietrangelo for that matter, we'd have more than 11+ available without Marky or TT. 

I get what you are saying but Pietranglo is not signing in Van.

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, Chris12345 said:

I get what you are saying but Pietranglo is not signing in Van.

I know, it would probably cost Doughty money to get him and then we'd have to lose someone like Boeser. 

[Chris12345]

1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I know, it would probably cost Doughty money to get him and then we'd have to lose someone like Boeser. 

If I guessed Markey and Tanev resign, TT goes.

 

 

[mll]

15 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

for sure they could. Thats why I said "might" - Melnyk does have the option to save money if he chooses that route. Even if they don't use all of the 5 mil difference between Loui's real 1 mil in salary and his 6 mil AAV, they could use a nice chunk of it. Melnyk strikes me as the kind of owner that wouldn't mind not spending 1 or 2 mil he doesn't have to next year. 

 

We'd have to add some significant sweeteners to that deal for sure as well, I would think Lind, Woo + picks as a opener. 

In a year they have key players to sign and Eriksson's 6M is a limitation.  Teams don't just look at next season but typically plan for years beyond too.  

 

Ottawa has so many draft picks and prospects - there's a 50 contract limit.  They can't just add players and have to find spots for them to play too.   A few teams have already started loaning a few of their players abroad.

 

The AHL is a gate driven league so teams will have to fund the AHL if they want them to play there.  The AHL president believes that some teams could opt out from playing next season.  Some NHL teams might prefer to loan their prospects to other affiliates rather than fund their own AHL team.  Utica might run but to help fund the costs could take prospects from other teams.  Promoting prospects earlier to the NHL will limit the number of players they have to fund to play in the AHL.

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by mll

[JM_]

9 hours ago, mll said:

In a year they have key players to sign and Eriksson's 6M is a limitation.  Teams don't just look at next season but typically plan for years beyond too.  

 

Ottawa has so many draft picks and prospects - there's a 50 contract limit.  They can't just add players and have to find spots for them to play too.   A few teams have already started loaning a few of their players abroad.

 

The AHL is a gate driven league so teams will have to fund the AHL if they want them to play there.  The AHL president believes that some teams could opt out from playing next season.  Some NHL teams might prefer to loan their prospects to other affiliates rather than fund their own AHL team.  Utica might run but to help fund the costs could take prospects from other teams.  Promoting prospects earlier to the NHL will limit the number of players they have to fund to play in the AHL.

 

all true. I do think there's going to be some kind of paper transactions allowed that "send" players to the AHL even if there's no AHL season. I don't see how the league can really operate without it. It might mean players are papered down but still practice with the team? not sure, I haven't seen anything official about it yet.

 

RE: 50 man roster - looking at Ottawa's depth chart, there are several over 25 guys that will likely not be back, and 6 or 7 other guys that they could let go if they chose to, so I don't think thats going to be a problem if we're offing them guys they see as upgrades.

 

Ottawa may also not be looking to sign all those 11 1st and 2nd rounders over the next two years, it might be better to let them play in whatever league they are drafted out of too. 

 

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

18 hours ago, mll said:

In a year they have key players to sign and Eriksson's 6M is a limitation.  Teams don't just look at next season but typically plan for years beyond too.  

 

Ottawa has so many draft picks and prospects - there's a 50 contract limit.  (They can't just add players and have to find spots for them to play too.   A few teams have already started loaning a few of their players abroad.

 

The AHL is a gate driven league so teams will have to fund the AHL if they want them to play there.  The AHL president believes that some teams could opt out from playing next season.  Some NHL teams might prefer to loan their prospects to other affiliates rather than fund their own AHL team.  Utica might run but to help fund the costs could take prospects from other teams.  Promoting prospects earlier to the NHL will limit the number of players they have to fund to play in the AHL.

 

Ottawa - They are at 45/50 and 64/90. They have plenty of room. They are also only carrying a 21 man roster.........

 

All teams will worry about their own teams and prospects before they help a competitor.......I actually doubt they will, as if they have no farm team and no where for their farm team players to go, some may get released out right, there by having other teams poach a player or two.

 

Survival of the fittest!

[mll]

15 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

all true. I do think there's going to be some kind of paper transactions allowed that "send" players to the AHL even if there's no AHL season. I don't see how the league can really operate without it. It might mean players are papered down but still practice with the team? not sure, I haven't seen anything official about it yet.

 

RE: 50 man roster - looking at Ottawa's depth chart, there are several over 25 guys that will likely not be back, and 6 or 7 other guys that they could let go if they chose to, so I don't think thats going to be a problem if we're offing them guys they see as upgrades.

 

Ottawa may also not be looking to sign all those 11 1st and 2nd rounders over the next two years, it might be better to let them play in whatever league they are drafted out of too. 

 

 

 

No idea what they'll do with the excess players.  Would expect the AHL to run but probably not all teams - sharing of affiliates or loans.  That's why I think teams with less ambition will give roster spots to more prospects rather than bring in stop gap players that do nothing for their future - cf Sakic in Colorado during their rebuild talking about how it was a more beneficial approach to promote prospects rather than just waste a season watching vets play (they initially went down that route and he admitted it was a mistake).

 

They have 7 draft picks in the 1st 2 rounds this year too.   Last year Ottawa was looking to add bad contracts for futures.  Per an Ottawa analyst they were apparently asking for a 1st round pick for the LTIR contract of Clarkson out of Vegas.  The contract was insured and the bonus had already been paid.  It was only 200K in real cash.  Seems so unlikely for Melnyk to be willing to pay 5M for Eriksson, when they don't need his salary to reach the floor (only need 18.3M with 14 spots still open) and it will limit their flexibility in a year to sign key players.  

 

The league is talking of losses in billions for next season.  Some owners don't even want the season to be played as long as they can't have fans in the building.  There are firings across the league including in Vancouver.   Don't see teams firing employees and then somehow finding the cash to take on cap dumps.  Teams might have trouble moving mid/bottom of the lineup players to clear cap space regardless of what they are willing to give up (barring a young elite player).  Not all draft picks and prospects turn out and limiting cap space is too risky in a flat cap world and with revenue uncertainty.  

 

LeBrun was saying earlier this week that some owners are struggling in their regular business and could indeed impose an internal salary cap.  He thinks there will be players available that you never expected to be available for cap reasons.  This makes trading unwanted contracts even more challenging.  Teams with the means might prefer making that kind of trades rather than tying their cap space in cap dump deals or bottom of the lineup/support players.

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by mll

[IBatch]

On 7/30/2020 at 6:15 PM, canuktravella said:

marky is getting more  than 5.75 and toffoli probably is gonna ask for 6 i dontwannagive tanev 5 id give him 3.5  let him get paid a ton somewhere else ilethim walk id also rather trade demko for picks and bury eriksson in utica 

Before Covid SN feels TT would be asking and getting around a 5 x 5 deal so don’t be surprised if now he’s getting less then that... Markstrom is competing with Lehner and Holtby this summer ... Lehner has had a similar career and last summer the best he could find was a one year deal at 5.   Holtby had a bad year but his pedigree is way better then both these guys .... goaltending is a fickle position.   Doubt teams will be that willing to pay what any of these guys were hoping to get.   Tanev is probably going to stay and probably going to get a flat one year deal.   
 

As far as the OP goes I’d hate to buy anyone out - it just prolongs the agony.   We don’t have to either - just offer TT what we can and don’t budge.   4.5 x 4 would be as far as I’d be willing to go.  And even then only if nothing else is dismantled other then trading Pearson....cash has to come from somewhere.... 5.5 x 5 on Markstrom is about what I see happening... JV one year at 2.5 show me deal.  

Neal was recently signed at 5.75....his stats are way better then TT and plays a heavier game.   Also things haven’t worked out well have they?    TT is a luxury at this point.  Might as well enjoy the 3 guaranteed games and hope that it builds into a nice little run.  Heck maybe Roussel will be a hero and teams will be interested in him .... or Beagle. 

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, mll said:

 

No idea what they'll do with the excess players.  Would expect the AHL to run but probably not all teams - sharing of affiliates or loans.  That's why I think teams with less ambition will give roster spots to more prospects rather than bring in stop gap players that do nothing for their future - cf Sakic in Colorado during their rebuild talking about how it was a more beneficial approach to promote prospects rather than just waste a season watching vets play (they initially went down that route and he admitted it was a mistake).

 

They have 7 draft picks in the 1st 2 rounds this year too.   Last year Ottawa was looking to add bad contracts for futures.  Per an Ottawa analyst they were apparently asking for a 1st round pick for the LTIR contract of Clarkson out of Vegas.  The contract was insured and the bonus had already been paid.  It was only 200K in real cash.  Seems so unlikely for Melnyk to be willing to pay 5M for Eriksson, when they don't need his salary to reach the floor (only need 18.3M with 14 spots still open) and it will limit their flexibility in a year to sign key players.  

 

The league is talking of losses in billions for next season.  Some owners don't even want the season to be played as long as they can't have fans in the building.  There are firings across the league including in Vancouver.   Don't see teams firing employees and then somehow finding the cash to take on cap dumps.  Teams might have trouble moving mid/bottom of the lineup players to clear cap space regardless of what they are willing to give up (barring a young elite player).  Not all draft picks and prospects turn out and limiting cap space is too risky in a flat cap world and with revenue uncertainty.  

 

LeBrun was saying earlier this week that some owners are struggling in their regular business and could indeed impose an internal salary cap.  He thinks there will be players available that you never expected to be available for cap reasons.  This makes trading unwanted contracts even more challenging.  Teams with the means might prefer making that kind of trades rather than tying their cap space in cap dump deals or bottom of the lineup/support players.

 

Good post.   Yet somehow Detroit will take LE off our hands for Demko...first odd why wouldn’t they just go after Lehner if they wanted to upgrade?  Same with OTT for that matter....a Demko isn’t a slam dunk (yet at least).   Allen recently signed  for 2 million, he used to be a top ten right?  If players like Miller and Horvat on good cap hits start becoming available, Sutter, Roussel and even Pearson who I keep bringing up as a way to help our cap won’t be high on anyone’s list unless we are willing to give up the farm for them (which if we do I will start a JB hate thread for the first time and switch to the dark side right away).  
 

We just need to get through two more years.   The core will develop during that time with lots of depth still - and move on.   It won’t be that difficult sign everyone with the exception of TT.   We did fine without him most of the season. And our team should improve just through familiarity (we did add a boat load of new faces last off season right) and EP, QHs, Horvat, JV and BB taking steps.   BB looks to be well on his way ... TG says he looks like he did his first year (he’s got his mojo back).   
 

It means there won’t be much room for new faces.   Although next year OJ will for sure be getting games and could take the third pairing spot.   So even with all these contracts new blood is on the horizon.   The year after that Podz arrives and maybe Lind will have cracked the lineup too.   Those guys are our golden cap tickets.   Trading those out would be a complete disaster for us.  

[IBatch]

On 7/31/2020 at 5:38 PM, Jimmy McGill said:

Not realistically tho. Marky wants to be here, it sounds very positive. But if he did walk, and TT did too we could easily keep Tanev or go for Pietrangelo for that matter, we'd have more than 11+ available without Marky or TT. 

Ceci and Homonic are also possible going to market, Lehner is likely a lateral move instead of Markstrom and Holtby might end up a bargain deal (that I’d still avoid).   All I’m saying is “worst case” still comes with options.    AP is staying in St Louis - which likely means one of their blue chip guys is going to be traded and likely for a song (some opportunity there as well instead of signing TT).    
 

Really from where I’m sitting if BB was never injured we wouldn’t have all these “cap issues” that we are all talking about .   Take him (TT) out of the equation and only a few lineup tweaks are required.   Like don’t re-sign Leivo and Fatenburg, and let Stecher walk ala Hutton and that’s about it.   Big deal right? 

Edited August 2, 2020 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 7/31/2020 at 1:09 AM, wildcam said:

During this covid cap freeze time players will be taking lees? Managers can't give these ridiculous offers to free agents and RFA for next 3 years..

Taffoli = in normal world 5.4 x 4 yrs...Now 4.9 million X 3-4 yrs

Markstrom -- normal world 5.8 million -- Now 5.3 X 3 yrs -- 4th yr option..

Jake -- 20 goal scorer -- 1 yr show me more 1.9 -- Possible they move jake for # 3 D man --- Don't resign Tanev..

Demko --- will be moved if they sign Markstrom--- late 1st rounder in return... Maybe make trade with Detroit get 2nd rounder early pick 34 overall and 4th rounder

Leivo-- 2 yrs X 1.6 show me more

MacEwen - 2 yrs X 1.2 million per -- One way deal

Motte - 1 million X2 - 4th liner and PK

Stetcher -- demand 2.5 x 3 yrs  -- Rafferty can fill #5 spot  for $ 700,000

Tanev -- RFA -- Don't resign will demand 4.8 X 4 yrs -- 31,  in December  had serious injuries will fill in trade or UFA

 

I like your thinking and agree with most of this except for Tanev.   If he stays it will only be on a one year deal.   I also doubt he’d get what your saying in the open market with his injury history - teams will go for Hominic first, then Ceci then Tanev in that order.   Gardiner thought he was getting around 6-7 last year and had to settle for 4 x 4 ...  Tanev probably knows his best money will be sticking with the team he knows and signing one 1-2 year deals for as long as he can play.   Team likes this as we have an extra protection spot...if for some reason he gets a 2-3 year deal he will be left unprotected for sure.   I don’t think Tanev will get a great contract on the open market although he would find some takers.  Not in this market. 

[IBatch]

On 7/31/2020 at 12:19 AM, janisahockeynut said:

Good job Jimmy!

 

I have been wrestling with this one, and honestly, we don't get out of this one without pain!

 

I am starting to feel that Virtanen and Demko are the cost

 

Something like

 

Virtanen (3M) + Eriksson(6M)      to      Ottawa for Marian Gaborik (LTIR) + Ottawa's 2020-3rd

and 

Demko(2M) + Sutter(4.375M)       to        Detroit for Daren Helm @ 50% (1 yr) (1.95M) + Edmonton's 2020-2nd

 

My thinking on Virtanen is that Vancouver will sign Toffoli, giving us 2 top RW's, then McEwen steps in for a Virtanen on 3rd line for a year until Podkolzin arrives

and my thinking on Sutter/Helm is there is not much difference in talent, Demko gives Detroit a goalie of the future

while only costing them a late 2nd.

 

It gets rid of approx 15.5 Million - Helm's 1.95M = Approx. 13.5 M savings, plus/minus a back goalie to replace Demko. I think gets us just as far, in the end. 

 

In the end, I still don't think this is our time yet, and we are still 2 years away from being a competitive team (top 10), if we are lucky!

 

Hopefully, Benning doesn't get any stupid idea's with the extra cap..............just re-sign who we have

 

 

Stupid ideas indeed (JB)... scares me too.   One of the silver linings of Luongo and LE is he’s forced to save for the future when we really need it (not that having it now wouldn’t be nice because of course it would).   I’m hoping he will pull a MG and find the Hamhuis, Erhoff’s that the team needs right when it’s starting to peak.   Add Bear, Sutter, Roussel, Beagle, Pearson to the cap and even with paying all the core players properly there will be enough for two more Myers like salaries on defense.   What MG paid back then for those guys ( Ballard too) is around 6 these days.. even a little more.  
 

Pretty sure we have enough depth in our pool to replace the above guys for the most part, at least half of them.. and those ELCs and second contracts will become exactly what we need to compete.   OJ looks ready for the third pairing spot and it’s not a stretch to hope he’s Tanev 2.0 plus some offense ... Edler will eventually need a replacement and this is for sure one way to do it.   Seattle probably won’t want to trade with us ... but they will end up with a stockpile of extra 4th defenseman...could plan to do a three way deal (using another team as a middle man) to pry one of those guys out, and if Covid can be parlayed into some good for us the crop of UFAs next year and the following the team would be wise to be trying to get one defenseman at a bargain cap hit from each year.    
 

None of this can happen if we chew away at our prospects for cap dumps just to eat up more cap space on TT (so many of those guys don’t work out as planned...TT might never score 50 points  again!).   Not to mention the cap space could be used where we really need it (defense).  I’d be looking at the next two or three even crops of UFAs very carefully and planning for it now - and the ED/Seattle as another strategy to get a solid second pairing D at a reasonable cost in a trade.   
 

We could always add a TT type too...but really folks I don’t see that as a priority. 

[JM_]

8 hours ago, mll said:

The league is talking of losses in billions for next season.  Some owners don't even want the season to be played as long as they can't have fans in the building.  There are firings across the league including in Vancouver.   Don't see teams firing employees and then somehow finding the cash to take on cap dumps.  Teams might have trouble moving mid/bottom of the lineup players to clear cap space regardless of what they are willing to give up (barring a young elite player).  Not all draft picks and prospects turn out and limiting cap space is too risky in a flat cap world and with revenue uncertainty.  

This is why I think there might be a long shot opportunity to move Loui to Ottawa, if Melnyk and Dorian decided to try to be a floor team for one year. Any money they can save might be a priority. How likely is it? who knows, but its there if they want it.  The fact that owners opted not to push for compliance buyouts is interesting since that means they clearly don't want to spend any more than they need to. 

 

I think a lot of teams will find it hard to move players as well, the prices to do it might just be ridiculous. 

[JM_]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Ceci and Homonic are also possible going to market, Lehner is likely a lateral move instead of Markstrom and Holtby might end up a bargain deal (that I’d still avoid).   All I’m saying is “worst case” still comes with options.    AP is staying in St Louis - which likely means one of their blue chip guys is going to be traded and likely for a song (some opportunity there as well instead of signing TT).    
 

Really from where I’m sitting if BB was never injured we wouldn’t have all these “cap issues” that we are all talking about .   Take him (TT) out of the equation and only a few lineup tweaks are required.   Like don’t re-sign Leivo and Fatenburg, and let Stecher walk ala Hutton and that’s about it.   Big deal right? 

we could probably land any of Tanev, Ceci or Hamonic for the same money. A Lehner-Demko duo would be pretty interesting. 

 

The bolded part is kind of what I'm getting at with this thread. When we look at whats just in Jim's control, its not the doomsday scenario some make it out to be. 

 

I agree on Brock and also if Jake had taken a bigger step maybe there's no need to go out and spend on Toffoli. 

[mll]

52 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

This is why I think there might be a long shot opportunity to move Loui to Ottawa, if Melnyk and Dorian decided to try to be a floor team for one year. Any money they can save might be a priority. How likely is it? who knows, but its there if they want it.  The fact that owners opted not to push for compliance buyouts is interesting since that means they clearly don't want to spend any more than they need to. 

 

I think a lot of teams will find it hard to move players as well, the prices to do it might just be ridiculous. 

They have 13 spots to fill to reach 23 and only need 18.3M to reach the floor.  In the unlikely situation that they are missing a few dollars to reach the floor, they can ask Arizona to send them Hossa's LTIR contract.  Arizona would probably gladly get rid of Hossa's contract with how cap strapped they are - it's only 200K vs 5M for Eriksson and runs only 1 year vs 2. Having Eriksson's contract is an issue in year 2 when they will have key players to re-sign.

 

[JM_]

13 minutes ago, mll said:

They have 13 spots to fill to reach 23 and only need 18.3M to reach the floor.  In the unlikely situation that they are missing a few dollars to reach the floor, they can ask Arizona to send them Hossa's LTIR contract.  Arizona would probably gladly get rid of Hossa's contract with how cap strapped they are - it's only 200K vs 5M for Eriksson and runs only 1 year vs 2. Having Eriksson's contract is an issue in year 2 when they will have key players to re-sign.

 

sure but who is AZ going to give up to do that? not picks this year. Certainly not someone like Soderstrom. I'm not sure they can be as competitive as us in players or prospects. 

 

Also it wouldn't be unlikely, they'd have to plan for a cap floor strategy not fall into it.