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Realistic best case / worst case cap implications [discussion]


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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

sure but who is AZ going to give up to do that? not picks this year. Certainly not someone like Soderstrom. I'm not sure they can be as competitive as us in players or prospects. 

 

Also it wouldn't be unlikely, they'd have to plan for a cap floor strategy not fall into it. 

If Ottawa needs a few dollars to reach the floor, they can take the contract for future considerations.  In that situation it helps both teams.  If Ottawa is already at the floor they don't need that contract (or Eriksson's) - in that situation it would cost Arizona.

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2 minutes ago, mll said:

If Ottawa needs a few dollars to reach the floor, they can take the contract for future considerations.  In that situation it helps both teams.  If Ottawa is already at the floor they don't need that contract (or Eriksson's) - in that situation it would cost Arizona.

seems like a waste of an opportunity to gain assets tho 

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3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

seems like a waste of an opportunity to gain assets tho 

But allows them to not spend anything more than the very strict minimum as to not increase their losses - 200k vs 5M+ whatever additional assets they are getting.  It also allows them to retain flexibility.

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29 minutes ago, mll said:

But allows them to not spend anything more than the very strict minimum as to not increase their losses - 200k vs 5M+ whatever additional assets they are getting.  It also allows them to retain flexibility.

maybe I'm confused as to how LTIR works. With Loui, next year you've got an AAV of 6, real salary of 1. So for a theoretical cap floor team, they could save 5 mil in real money outlay. If you had an equivalent LTIR player with an AAV of 6 mil, would the cap floor team save all that in real money too? I thought you had to replace that LTIR with real salary in order to take advantage of it. 

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I'm not so sure UFA players will be getting big raises this off-season.  The cap is going to be flat.  Lost revenues from having empty arenas.  Probably lost sales in swag cuz of recession. 

 

Good time for teams to low ball players.

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1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said:

we could probably land any of Tanev, Ceci or Hamonic for the same money. A Lehner-Demko duo would be pretty interesting. 

 

The bolded part is kind of what I'm getting at with this thread. When we look at whats just in Jim's control, its not the doomsday scenario some make it out to be. 

 

I agree on Brock and also if Jake had taken a bigger step maybe there's no need to go out and spend on Toffoli. 

Exactly.   The only reason we are in “cap doomsayer doomsday OMG the sky-is falling “  situation at all is because currently our payroll is completely out of whack with everyone healthy including TT.  JB paid a premium to give the team a very good shot at doing some damage this playoffs.   Some people have taken the stance we wouldn’t have made the playoffs the way things were going.  To them I say BOTH BB AND Markstrom were coming back ... and we still had a dozen plus games to get things righted.   I’d say at worst we’d of ended up a wild card team, at best home ice advantage.   Rarely we we never in a game we lost all season.   And we had some blow outs the other way ... quite a few really. 
 

I’d be perfectly happy to have two more seasons of that - and fully expect that the team will keep taking small steps forward each year towards the goal of becoming a contender again.   The ONLY way that I see that happening is with careful and mindful use of cap going forward to plug up and shore up our weaknesses- which definitely is our defense.  For years and years the CDC complained about our top pairing.  Well now they have half the hard minutes.  Just by adding QHs and Myers.   How would things look if we added another pairing just like that?  To me it would be a complete game changer.   OJ looked like he belonged in 7mins of play.  He’s been developed as best as possible given the circumstances.   At this point I’d be surprised if he’s not an upgrade on the third pairing - and still have some hope he’s got good top four upside later on.  Rafferty has decent odds of becoming an upgrade on Stetcher.   6’2”...and offense to boot he won’t be missing on his chances and shots the same way Stecher gets his chances.   
 

Then we buy the rest when the time is right (which isn’t now anyways).   We have what we need in the system to upgrade and allow cap to work in our favour over the next three years with what’s in our pool.  Lind has good odds of making it on the third line and adding offense to it - he’s a two-way player too.
 

Podz has a high floor.   Silverberg or Miller type but on the wing.   Hogs has Bear type upside ... speaking of which I will keep beating the same drum until it happens.   We need cap space trade Pearson.  His stock is high...on a good cap hit for a team (ahem Boston) who lacks depth on the L side.   Easy to trade, we have Ferland and Bear and Roussel PLUS JV who can also play the L side it wouldn’t weaken our team that much.     
 

Anyone who’s in favour of buy-outs isn’t thinking of the long game.   Spooner and overages and Bear in the minors isn’t helping us at all.  We don’t need to prolong the pain.   All we need to do is sign Markstrom (5.25 x 4 plus a NMC) and sign Tanev (4 x 1) and JV (2.5 x 1) plus McEwen, AG etc ... let Leivo and Stetcher go and that’s about it.  Need a little more cap space then Pearson is your guy.   It’s not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.  We can ice the same team that was on top of our division for awhile this year and go with that.   Im very comfortable with that.   Maybe we don’t make the playoffs next year ... and maybe that’s going to come back and haunt us.  But why worry about that.   The season might not even happen.   And if it does I’m still not worried about it because I feel this team is on the rise and most likely will do just fine with mostly the same lineup,  even better. 

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33 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

maybe I'm confused as to how LTIR works. With Loui, next year you've got an AAV of 6, real salary of 1. So for a theoretical cap floor team, they could save 5 mil in real money outlay. If you had an equivalent LTIR player with an AAV of 6 mil, would the cap floor team save all that in real money too? I thought you had to replace that LTIR with real salary in order to take advantage of it. 

 

Every player counts against the salary cap.  Teams who are under the cap do not need to use LTIR, they can simply keep the player on IR which opens up a roster spot.  Canucks did that with Dorsett one year where he never went on LTIR because they didn't need the cap space.  The year after they needed the cap space so he went on LTIR and it created a bonus overage.

 

Ottawa doesn't have Gaborik, MacArthur on LTIR but IR although they have career ending injuries.  It would be a similar situation where Hossa's contract gets added and costs them only 200K in real salary (as the contract is insured) but the AAV counts agains the cap.  As it's to reach the floor there's no reason to put him on LTIR as they don't need the cap space.  

 

Arizona is in a different situation.  They are so close to the salary cap that they have to put Hossa on LTIR.  

 

LTIR is a mechanism to allow teams to exceed the cap in order to build an active roster up to the salary cap.  If Ferland did not go on LTIR, the Canucks' active roster would have been at most 78M because his 3.5M count against the cap.  By going on LTIR the Canucks were allowed to build an active roster closer to 81.5M.  

 

Anything above 81.5M is only LTIR money.  The active roster will always be under the maximum cap of 81.5M.   The issue with LTIR is that it only allows to exceed the cap up to the amount necessary to remain cap compliant.  It doesn't create cap space and very often teams have trouble building an active roster up to 81.5M because of how it works.  

 

It's a real limitation to have LTIR contracts when a team is operating at the cap.  It creates bonus overages, makes it harder to build an active roster up to the salary cap and limits who can get recalled from the AHL.  That's why a team like Arizona will want to try and move Hossa's contract.

 

Ottawa is in a different situation as they are closer to the floor and having someone that can't play all season like Hossa shouldn't impact them next season.

 

Edited by mll
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5 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Exactly.   The only reason we are in “cap doomsayer doomsday OMG the sky-is falling “  situation at all is because currently our payroll is completely out of whack with everyone healthy including TT.  JB paid a premium to give the team a very good shot at doing some damage this playoffs.   Some people have taken the stance we wouldn’t have made the playoffs the way things were going.  To them I say BOTH BB AND Markstrom were coming back ... and we still had a dozen plus games to get things righted.   I’d say at worst we’d of ended up a wild card team, at best home ice advantage.   Rarely we we never in a game we lost all season.   And we had some blow outs the other way ... quite a few really. 
 

I’d be perfectly happy to have two more seasons of that - and fully expect that the team will keep taking small steps forward each year towards the goal of becoming a contender again.   The ONLY way that I see that happening is with careful and mindful use of cap going forward to plug up and shore up our weaknesses- which definitely is our defense.  For years and years the CDC complained about our top pairing.  Well now they have half the hard minutes.  Just by adding QHs and Myers.   How would things look if we added another pairing just like that?  To me it would be a complete game changer.   OJ looked like he belonged in 7mins of play.  He’s been developed as best as possible given the circumstances.   At this point I’d be surprised if he’s not an upgrade on the third pairing - and still have some hope he’s got good top four upside later on.  Rafferty has decent odds of becoming an upgrade on Stetcher.   6’2”...and offense to boot he won’t be missing on his chances and shots the same way Stecher gets his chances.   
 

Then we buy the rest when the time is right (which isn’t now anyways).   We have what we need in the system to upgrade and allow cap to work in our favour over the next three years with what’s in our pool.  Lind has good odds of making it on the third line and adding offense to it - he’s a two-way player too.
 

Podz has a high floor.   Silverberg or Miller type but on the wing.   Hogs has Bear type upside ... speaking of which I will keep beating the same drum until it happens.   We need cap space trade Pearson.  His stock is high...on a good cap hit for a team (ahem Boston) who lacks depth on the L side.   Easy to trade, we have Ferland and Bear and Roussel PLUS JV who can also play the L side it wouldn’t weaken our team that much.     
 

Anyone who’s in favour of buy-outs isn’t thinking of the long game.   Spooner and overages and Bear in the minors isn’t helping us at all.  We don’t need to prolong the pain.   All we need to do is sign Markstrom (5.25 x 4 plus a NMC) and sign Tanev (4 x 1) and JV (2.5 x 1) plus McEwen, AG etc ... let Leivo and Stetcher go and that’s about it.  Need a little more cap space then Pearson is your guy.   It’s not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.  We can ice the same team that was on top of our division for awhile this year and go with that.   Im very comfortable with that.   Maybe we don’t make the playoffs next year ... and maybe that’s going to come back and haunt us.  But why worry about that.   The season might not even happen.   And if it does I’m still not worried about it because I feel this team is on the rise and most likely will do just fine with mostly the same lineup,  even better. 

Pearson has trade value as well. 

 

Let most of the contracts expire. I agree.

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1 hour ago, Chris12345 said:

Pearson has trade value as well. 

 

Let most of the contracts expire. I agree.

That’s a logical and pragmatic view which I’m 100% behind.  It still makes it hard enough for prospects to earn their spot which is the model in the first place,  I do think JB was one year ahead of his projections but it’s factually a better spot to be in.   I’m ok with TT as a rental even if we get swept by MIN.  But I’m also hopeful we make it and can win some games (which we are for sure capable of).   Until this years playoffs are done I don’t see this sort of talk falling into place much either - that said the worst case scenario is just pretty much the same team we went with this year which wasn’t that bad.   It would be awesome if the team takes advantage of the depth we currently have but not the end of the world either way (and that’s without number one still in the background).   JB doesn’t think we have cap issues and neither do I.   Cap issues in the extreme is TO.   Good thing we don’t have someone like him running our club right?

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5 hours ago, IBatch said:

Exactly.   The only reason we are in “cap doomsayer doomsday OMG the sky-is falling “  situation at all is because currently our payroll is completely out of whack with everyone healthy including TT.  JB paid a premium to give the team a very good shot at doing some damage this playoffs.   Some people have taken the stance we wouldn’t have made the playoffs the way things were going.  To them I say BOTH BB AND Markstrom were coming back ... and we still had a dozen plus games to get things righted.   I’d say at worst we’d of ended up a wild card team, at best home ice advantage.   Rarely we we never in a game we lost all season.   And we had some blow outs the other way ... quite a few really. 
 

I’d be perfectly happy to have two more seasons of that - and fully expect that the team will keep taking small steps forward each year towards the goal of becoming a contender again.   The ONLY way that I see that happening is with careful and mindful use of cap going forward to plug up and shore up our weaknesses- which definitely is our defense.  For years and years the CDC complained about our top pairing.  Well now they have half the hard minutes.  Just by adding QHs and Myers.   How would things look if we added another pairing just like that?  To me it would be a complete game changer.   OJ looked like he belonged in 7mins of play.  He’s been developed as best as possible given the circumstances.   At this point I’d be surprised if he’s not an upgrade on the third pairing - and still have some hope he’s got good top four upside later on.  Rafferty has decent odds of becoming an upgrade on Stetcher.   6’2”...and offense to boot he won’t be missing on his chances and shots the same way Stecher gets his chances.   
 

Then we buy the rest when the time is right (which isn’t now anyways).   We have what we need in the system to upgrade and allow cap to work in our favour over the next three years with what’s in our pool.  Lind has good odds of making it on the third line and adding offense to it - he’s a two-way player too.
 

Podz has a high floor.   Silverberg or Miller type but on the wing.   Hogs has Bear type upside ... speaking of which I will keep beating the same drum until it happens.   We need cap space trade Pearson.  His stock is high...on a good cap hit for a team (ahem Boston) who lacks depth on the L side.   Easy to trade, we have Ferland and Bear and Roussel PLUS JV who can also play the L side it wouldn’t weaken our team that much.     
 

Anyone who’s in favour of buy-outs isn’t thinking of the long game.   Spooner and overages and Bear in the minors isn’t helping us at all.  We don’t need to prolong the pain.   All we need to do is sign Markstrom (5.25 x 4 plus a NMC) and sign Tanev (4 x 1) and JV (2.5 x 1) plus McEwen, AG etc ... let Leivo and Stetcher go and that’s about it.  Need a little more cap space then Pearson is your guy.   It’s not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.  We can ice the same team that was on top of our division for awhile this year and go with that.   Im very comfortable with that.   Maybe we don’t make the playoffs next year ... and maybe that’s going to come back and haunt us.  But why worry about that.   The season might not even happen.   And if it does I’m still not worried about it because I feel this team is on the rise and most likely will do just fine with mostly the same lineup,  even better. 

I'd be fine with trading Pearson to save cap. Hog's might be able to play in that spot sooner than later. Pod'z certainly looks like the real thing too. 

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1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said:

I'd be fine with trading Pearson to save cap. Hog's might be able to play in that spot sooner than later. Pod'z certainly looks like the real thing too. 

Me too.  And that seems to me like the “worst case scenario”.   The triple Bees is re-united for a year or if Ferland is healthy that’s fine too.  With some wiggling maybe TT can be signed as well.  But I’m not holding my breath or expecting it.   The team needs to go to at least the third round before other teams will be paying much attention to what else we have to offer outside our core.  

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1 minute ago, IBatch said:

Me too.  And that seems to me like the “worst case scenario”.   The triple Bees is re-united for a year or if Ferland is healthy that’s fine too.  With some wiggling maybe TT can be signed as well.  But I’m not holding my breath or expecting it.   The team needs to go to at least the third round before other teams will be paying much attention to what else we have to offer outside our core.  

we'll see if Jim can manage a few cap clearing moves.... I'm not expecting he can do it but you just never know what another GM might do. It seems like Jakes days are numbered here, and if they are who knows maybe Jake + another prospect is enough for Ottawa to take Loui. Maybe Demko is enough for Detroit to entertain it. Who knows, but I'm not worried either. I'm really excited to see Juolevi and Rathbone next season so if thats a "step back" so be it. 

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19 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

we'll see if Jim can manage a few cap clearing moves.... I'm not expecting he can do it but you just never know what another GM might do. It seems like Jakes days are numbered here, and if they are who knows maybe Jake + another prospect is enough for Ottawa to take Loui. Maybe Demko is enough for Detroit to entertain it. Who knows, but I'm not worried either. I'm really excited to see Juolevi and Rathbone next season so if thats a "step back" so be it. 

Yep we for sure don’t know.   But I’m definitely not holding my breath either.   I doubt Demko is worth much more then a second or at most a late first by himself given that team will then have to protect him (and there are other options out there that teams could consider and once we sign Markstrom we have almost zero leverage).... sucks.   JV for sure will find a few teams interested in him but why wouldn’t we just sign and play him? Even with a 1 million dollar raise he’s still useful.   I don’t know the right answers ... but I I do feel this is a time not to do anything rash such as dump out futures just to gain a little cap for now.   I don’t think Demko has shown nearly enough to make LE go away - same with JV and even combined but maybe I’m wrong.   Think Detroit could get some way better offers from another team.  Demko-JV and LE plus a first and a second with a third going back ?   Rather sign JV, keep our first and dangle Demko for the ED.   We don’t need to do anything but sit it out.  We aren’t going to be much better with TT and no JV and Pearson next year (which is about what it will take).  Don’t see the point other then to minimize the standings and the draft pick for Miller we gave up. 

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1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Yep we for sure don’t know.   But I’m definitely not holding my breath either.   I doubt Demko is worth much more then a second or at most a late first by himself given that team will then have to protect him (and there are other options out there that teams could consider and once we sign Markstrom we have almost zero leverage).... sucks.   JV for sure will find a few teams interested in him but why wouldn’t we just sign and play him? Even with a 1 million dollar raise he’s still useful.   I don’t know the right answers ... but I I do feel this is a time not to do anything rash such as dump out futures just to gain a little cap for now.   I don’t think Demko has shown nearly enough to make LE go away - same with JV and even combined but maybe I’m wrong.   Think Detroit could get some way better offers from another team.  Demko-JV and LE plus a first and a second with a third going back ?   Rather sign JV, keep our first and dangle Demko for the ED.   We don’t need to do anything but sit it out.  We aren’t going to be much better with TT and no JV and Pearson next year (which is about what it will take).  Don’t see the point other then to minimize the standings and the draft pick for Miller we gave up. 

I do think Demko would be pretty attractive for Detroit, and getting him in this offseason just brings Stevie Y's rebuild along that much more. Demko and Bernier would be a good split squad in goal next year. They really don't have anyone else in the system at his level, and I'm not sure how many other teams have goalie to burn. 

 

Anyway, time for some pre game beer :P

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So, I am going off topic to make a point.............

 

Whether we are hard against the cap or in trouble will play out....so we will see

 

But, really this subject does not raise it's ugly head, if JB does not jump the gun

 

Take away, Miller, Myers, Toffoli, and we stay down for 1 or 2 more years

 

Really, all his UFA decisions...Eriksson, Beagle, Sutter, Roussel,  started it all....(yes, I know Sutter and Miller were trades, but they are veteran imports, as the others are.

 

And then we have no cap issues......

 

Now I am not saying I do not like Miller, but our stars are young, and we are shy in talent and in years....

 

Come back in 2 years and we are a different team. "IF" we do not have to move young assets and picks to fix a cap problem.....

 

Now I am not the expert, Jim Benning is, and he gets paid to make those decisions, so I will sit back and wait, like everyone else

 

But those decisions, are now impacting us

 

So it will be interesting to see his moves

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