The Canucks, in my opinion, are in a similar position to where they were in 2006-2007. Our real window of "elitehood" will start in 2021-2022

[Patel Bure]

The Canucks, in my opinion, are in a similar position to where they were in 2006-2007.   Our real window of "elitehood" will start in 2021-2022: 

 

We have seen this movie before back in 2006-2007:

 

1) Most hockey pundits didn't see us making the playoffs.

2) The Canucks made the playoffs and beat a team that was superior to them and more experienced than them.   

3) The Canucks met an extremely difficult foe in the 2nd round (the eventual cup winners).

 

Please note - Don't take my point #3 as a way of me saying that we won't beat Las Vegas.     Of course I'll be estatic and pleased if we end up doing the unthinkable.    

As a fan that prides himself on being objective however (or at least attempting to be), my prediction is that Vegas will win the series in 5 games and will go on to win the cup, just as Anaheim did to us back in 2007.    Again, nothing will make me happier than to be wrong, and I give you guys permission to flame me if my beloved Canucks win this series.   :-).

 

Just as was the case in 2006-2007, the Canucks were trending in the right direction, but weren't quite elite yet.  

 

The Canucks eventually entered their 'window' between 2008-2013, with 2010-2012 being their peak, but keep in mind that the Canucks experienced a slight regression in 2007-2008 (missed the playoffs).     

 

I am of the opinion that the Canucks will follow a similar trajectory if you take a look at our cap situation.    

 

However, I am also of the opinion that 2021-2022 might be the year where the Canucks go all the way and here is why I feel this way:   

 

1) Horvat, Boeser, and JT Miller will still be on contracts less than 6 million in AAV.

2) Hoglander, Juolevi, and Podkolzin should likely be on the Canucks by this time and will likely be impact players on ELC contracts.  

3) All/most of our overpriced "transitional" contracts that we paid out to vets will either be off the books, or can very easily be moved off the books.   For example, Beagle and Roussel can both be traded with 50% retention in the same summer that we need to sign Hughes and Pettersson, while Eriksson will only be owed 2 million in real dollars.   Moving him to another team at this point shouldn't be overly difficult even with a 6 million dollar cap hit.     For this IMMEDIATE off-season, I am of the belief that both Baertschi and Sutter will be able to be moved at 50% retention, or reach some kind of agreement with the team where the Canucks clear most of their contracts off of our books.   Ferland will likely be LTIR'd or retired as well.   

4) Pearson and Toffoli:   I am of the opinion that both Pearson and Toffoli will re-sign with us at a very decent AAV.   Both guys are friends, and I think both guys will want to continue to play for a team trending upwards:

5) Edler will have aged and will likely no longer be good enough to take on the toughest match-ups, but he'll still likely be a good option as a 2nd pairing guy.   

 

2021-2022 outlook in my opinion:  (the season after this coming one)

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Toffoli

Hoglander-Gaudette-Podkolzin

Motte-####-MacEwen

 

Hughes-#####

Edler-Myers

Juolevi-Tanev

 

Markstrom

(Dipietro or NewBackUp)

 

 

FYI - Don't get too caught up in my suggested line combos from above.    What I'm trying to illustrate, is that we will have a LOT of depth in 2021-2022 season with a LOT of good contracts.    Our top 9 forwards should be quite formidable, while the presence of Juolevi and Tanev on our bottom pairing should be a clear upgrade over our current bottom pairing.  

 

The way I see it, all the Canucks will really need in 2021-2022, is a good 4th line centre (shouldn't be too difficult to find), and a top right sided defenseman (will be extremely difficult to acquire/sign/develop from within. .  

 

Dougie Hamilton will be a UFA on July 1st 2021 and so he is personally who I would target.   However - I would sign Pettersson and Hughes BEFORE July 1st and attempt to sign both Petey and Hughes to shorter term deals so that we can get them at a lower cap hit (i.e. the modern day equivalent of the Sebastian Aho deal for Pettersson, and the modern day equivalent to the Thomas Chabot deal for Hughes).   Once you get Petey and Hughes to 'buy in' and take a lower cap hit with the hope of building a winner, THEN you make a huge move for Dougie Hamilton on July 1st.   

 

1) Get your RFA guys to 'buy in' to the idea of taking slightly less money so that more money can be spent on creating a winner.

2) Go HARD after a top prize UFA *after* you have signed your RFA's.      

 

Speaking of the above, I believe that this is such an important concept, and is also a major reason why Toronto screwed up badly in their choice to sign Tavares.   Once the Leafs signed Tavares, there was absolutely no way that guys like Matthews, Marner, Nylander, etc., were going to 'buy in' and take cap friendly deals.   "He got paid and so I want to get paid."    For the record, this is also why I DON'T want the Canucks to go after Alex Pietrangelo this off-season.   Pietrangelo will cost between 10-11 million dollars and once you shell out that much money to one guy, then guys like Petey and Hughes will demand similar compensation, which will ultimately prevent us from having enough money to invest in necessary depth (i.e. #TorontoModel).    

 

So again, that is why I suggest, in 2021...

 

1) Sign Pettersson and Hughes BEFORE UFA day.   Get Pettersson and Hughes to 'buy in' and take cap friendly discounts even if it means them taking shorter term deals that can lead them to UFA faster.   Sebastian Aho = Pettersson comparable; Thomas Chabot = Hughes comparable.

2) Go BIG after Dougie Hamilton AFTER #1 has taken place.

 

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Toffoli

Hoglander-Gaudette-Podkolzin

Motte-[UFA signing or developed from within - Focht?]-MacEwen

 

Hughes-Hamilton

Edler-Myers

Juolevi-Tanev

 

Markstrom

(Dipietro or NewCheapUFABackUp)

 

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the team above puts you in the conversation for a Stanley Cup.    

 

In order to achieve the above however, the Canucks will have to find a way to get rid of the following over-priced contracts:

 

-Eriksson

-Sutter

-Baertschi

-Ferland

-Roussel

-Beagle

 

However, I am of the opinion that the following can and will be used as sweeteners to move the above contracts if necessary:

 

-2021 1st

-Virtanen

-Rafferty

-Rights to Tryamkin

-Demko (we could lose him in the expansion draft anyways).   

-ONE (but NOT both) of Juolevi or Rathbone

-Lind

 

So in conclusion,

 

1) I feel like the Canucks are in a similar spot to where they were in 2006-2007.   I think we will lose in the second round to the eventual cup winners, stagnate or even have a slight regression next season, followed by entering our window of elite hood in the season prior.

2) Benning will find a way to get rid of the above bloated contracts by possibly using some of the above suggested sweeteners.     

Edited August 24, 2020 by DarkIndianRises

[JM_]

its funny, I read your thread title to mean we had to wait 14 more years 

 

I like a lot of what you're saying, other than maybe Dougie Hamilton, I don't think he's going to age well. 

[Patel Bure]

Just now, Robert Long said:

its funny, I read your thread title to mean we had to wait 14 more years 

 

I like a lot of what you're saying, other than maybe Dougie Hamilton, I don't think he's going to age well. 

Hamilton may not age well as you say, but the guy should still be one hell of a player in 2021-2022.    If Hamilton can be the guy that can form an elite top pairing with Hughes and help take us to the promise land, then I'm all for it, even if he doesn't age particularly well after that.    

[goalie13]

17 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Just as was the case in 2006-2007, the Canucks were trending in the right direction, but weren't quite elite yet.  

This is something I have been saying for quite some time.

 

You think they're good now?  Imagine what they will be like when the core comes into their prime.

[thrago]

I don't know what the timelines will be but I do know this team hasn't peaked yet and they are already doing some things in the playoffs so that's a good sign to me.

[Nuxfanabroad]

It's cool to read the tea leaves, but you're standing in the field wondering, before the plants have even grown.

 

We need the dedication, to get the young guys "buying in" & signing reasonably.

Requiring the vision, to know which ones to stick with, & which ones to recycle into other assets.

So then one better have patience, for not every prospect(like OJ, for ex.) hits the ground running, at the same pace.

 

Some privileged yank markets are given all kinds of mulligans.  No one cares/remembers when their GM squanders assets. Or the league gifts them high picks, soft trades & an owner-of-the-month, cash rotation.

 

It's no picnic to GM in a passionate Cdn market, when the whole league operation is overseen like a #riggeddeckCasino.

[Nucker 67]

The future is bright. Petey and Hughes are still kids, basically. Virtanen, MacEwen, Gaudette, Juolevi and Boeser are still young and developing their games. The team has Eriksson playing in the top 6 in the playoffs, and the D is really only half there. It's going to get better. They've still got Lind, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Focht, Rathbone and Woo developing.

 

They wowed me against MIN and STL, and if it ends today, it's been a complete success. But it isn't over yet. 

 

I imagine how good (and strong) Pettersson will be in 3 years, or how much more skilled Quinn Hughes will be. You can bet the name-calling and childish antics of the Vegas players, will motivate Pettersson to shove that down their throats in years to come. Who knows, it may have already lit a fire in his belly.  This core will hoist the Cup one day.

 

[Patel Bure]

12 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

The future is bright. Petey and Hughes are still kids, basically. Virtanen, MacEwen, Gaudette, Juolevi and Boeser are still young and developing their games. The team has Eriksson playing in the top 6 in the playoffs, and the D is really only half there. It's going to get better. They've still got Lind, Podkolzin, Hoglander, Focht, Rathbone and Woo developing.

 

They wowed me against MIN and STL, and if it ends today, it's been a complete success. But it isn't over yet. 

 

I imagine how good (and strong) Pettersson will be in 3 years, or how much more skilled Quinn Hughes will be. You can bet the name-calling and childish antics of the Vegas players, will motivate Pettersson to shove that down their throats in years to come. Who knows, it may have already lit a fire in his belly.  This core will hoist the Cup one day.

 

Re - Vegas’ name calling and childish antics.  
 

It’s a part of the game and I’m sure our boys weren’t affected by it.  Keep in mind however that Roussel was the one that started it with Lehner and so retaliation was to be expected.

 

(although the bizarre romantic feelings that both Roussel and Anthony Stewart developed towards Ryan Reeves was not expected at all).

Edited August 25, 2020 by DarkIndianRises

[VancouverHabitant]

4 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

We need the dedication, to get the young guys "buying in" & signing reasonably.

Requiring the vision, to know which ones to stick with, & which ones to recycle into other assets.

So then one better have patience, for not every prospect(like OJ, for ex.) hits the ground running, at the same pace.

 

We saw last offseason that Brock is not in.  He missed training camp so that he could maximize his deal...  okay, fair enough, but we will have to qualify him at 7.5 mil/season or more in order not to lose him for nothing.  He has essentially priced himself out of Vancouver.  No way in hell can we give him 7.5 mil or more in two years.  

He's being paid like a top player RIGHT NOW and he's not a top player yet, and who knows if he ever will be.  

 

Good post OP...  I'd just like to point out that finding good centers is one of the hardest things to do in the league.  I'm not sold on Gaudette as a center yet.  We will see, but he has struggled quite a bit at the NHL level in being a center, faceoffs, defense, etc.  

So finding a 4th line center might not be so straight forward, but we will see. 

 

One more thing:  don't underestimate the value of having veterans that have won the cup before.  Getting rid of both Sutter and Beagle is subtracting quite a bit of winning experience. 

Edit:  I love the term Elitehood.  We're entering it! 

Edited August 25, 2020 by VancouverHabitant
elitehood, obviously

[fanfor42]

Is "Elitehood" now a thing?

 

 

[Patel Bure]

10 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

Is "Elitehood" now a thing?

 

 

It may or may not be but it sounded like a good enough noun to me.  :-p

[bishopshodan]

My window of elitehood was late teens, early 20's.

[King Heffy]

3 hours ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Hamilton may not age well as you say, but the guy should still be one hell of a player in 2021-2022.    If Hamilton can be the guy that can form an elite top pairing with Hughes and help take us to the promise land, then I'm all for it, even if he doesn't age particularly well after that.    

Hamilton is a defensive liability now.  Much prefer doing whatever it takes to get a guy like Manson here.

[Toyotasfan]

Get used to the Canucks being in the playoffs for the next 10 years. 

[Curmudgeon]

4 hours ago, DarkIndianRises said:

So in conclusion,

 

1) I feel like the Canucks are in a similar spot to where they were in 2006-2007.   I think we will lose in the second round to the eventual cup winners, stagnate or even have a slight regression next season, followed by entering our window of elite hood in the season prior.

2) Benning will find a way to get rid of the above bloated contracts by possibly using some of the above suggested sweeteners.  

Overall, nice work. You put in a lot of work to make your proposal and it is appreciated. I share your excitement for the future of this team.

[xereau]

 

2 hours ago, King Heffy said:

Hamilton is a defensive liability now.  Much prefer doing whatever it takes to get a guy like Manson here.

Dillon is a UFA this off season, BC boy. Not a bank breaker, but a definite upgrade on Benn.

[King Heffy]

6 minutes ago, xereau said:

 

Dillon is a UFA this off season, BC boy. Not a bank breaker, but a definite upgrade on Benn.

Would welcome here with open arms depending on the cap situation.

Edited August 25, 2020 by King Heffy

[The Colt 45s]

Kind of a speculative novel here.  Fantasy with the salary retention.  Basically what you are saying is that the Canucks pay another team $2-million a season to keep Beagle and $1.5-million for Roussel?  If you signed two rookies at the league minimum, you only save $2-million a season but that savings might be mute if taking two veteran players back.  Yes the cap is stagnant. But nothing like flushing your veterans out, especially in that they both are over 30 and have modified no trade clauses in their contracts.  

And, since Jay was 10 years old, he has wanted to play for Vancouver.

Edited August 25, 2020 by The Colt 45s

[189lb enforcers?]

OP, get yourself a blog. 
 

[oldnews]

17 hours ago, Robert Long said:

its funny, I read your thread title to mean we had to wait 14 more years 

 

I like a lot of what you're saying, other than maybe Dougie Hamilton, I don't think he's going to age well. 

Yeah - Hamilton is not a guy you pair with Hughes.

He's a player that needs a Chara, Giordano, or Slavin type partner himself.

 

Slavin - that's the type of guy you want with Hughes.

Edited August 25, 2020 by oldnews