[Report] Bergevin willing to trade 1st, prospects to improve team now

[qwijibo]

12 minutes ago, Gollumpus said:

From my "extensive" knowledge on the subject, I'd say that Boeser > Domi by a pretty reasonable margin, and this is with Domi's physicality etc taken into consideration. They would also be getting a fairly big, relatively physical, younger forward in Virtanen, who also has shown a pretty good scoring touch, albeit he's a "third liner". The 1st could possibly get the Canucks a pretty decent d-man prospect which makes it interesting.

 

I'd say that the two packages sorta' balance out, not that I'd do this trade.

 

                                                             regards,  G.

Have you factored in Boesers injury history.  The fact that Montreal plays a speed game and Boeser is slow. The disturbing downward trend in Boeser’s goal scoring numbers. (Perhaps due to the injuries) 

 

Boeser has played with much better players in his time in the NHL but has only managed a best season of 56 points compared to Domi putting up 72 with Shaw as his primary winger? 
 

I’m not convinced that Boeser has a higher a ceiling or any more value than Domi 

[Gollumpus]

55 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Have you factored in Boesers injury history.  The fact that Montreal plays a speed game and Boeser is slow. The disturbing downward trend in Boeser’s goal scoring numbers. (Perhaps due to the injuries) 

 

Boeser has played with much better players in his time in the NHL but has only managed a best season of 56 points compared to Domi putting up 72 with Shaw as his primary winger? 
 

I’m not convinced that Boeser has a higher a ceiling or any more value than Domi 

Hey, didn't I specify that I have "extensive knowledge on the subject"?   

 

Boeser has had some injury issues, with resulting loss in games played. One significant injury was from a collision into the boards which resulted in a back injury (and as far as I know there are no recurring issues). The other significant injury issue was from a groin injury, and to my knowledge there are no ongoing problems. And he's still scored 75 goals in 197 games, compared to Domi's 81 goals in 375 games. Or, if we just use the last two seasons (for Domi's time in Montreal) Boeser has scored 42 times in 127 games. Domi has scored 45 times in 153 games. (Feel free to check my addition, I'm watching baseball atm and they are always talking numbers)

 

Boeser may not be as fast as some other players, but he is by no means slow (is he?). This being said, there is some discussion regarding Montreal's "speed game" and the centers who Boeser would likely be playing with:

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2018/8/24/17749254/analyzing-jesperi-kotkaniemi-skating-ability-video-breakdown-liiga-highlights-canadiens-top-25

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2020/2/16/21139501/micro-analysis-video-canadiens-centres-nick-suzuki-speed-jake-evans-truculence-max-domi-simple-game

 

Boeser has a comparable number of goals in a comparable number of games in the two years prior to this season. and with a full(er) season his total points would (probably) be comparable for this season. He also spent a larger number of games not on the 1st line this past season (the Toffoli factor?), and a corresponding reduction in points might reflect this not playing with Pettersson.

 

Yes, Domi did well in one particular season. And what did he do last year, and why was there a fall back? There certainly seems to be an argument to be made that Boeser is more consistent in number of goals scored per season. What were the factors in Domi having perhaps a career year in '18 - '19? Maybe it was line mates, or maybe he got more ice time, or better ice time in O-zone starts? 

 

                                                             regards,  G.

 

Actually, thanks for this discussion. Boser has been diminishing in my assessment (for some reason), and this examination has brought him back up. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Gollumpus

[oldnews]

trades, trades where are the trades?

I keep checking in, hoping for the doors to open, but...

lots of time still - maybe the league is waiting on Tampa's chips to fall?

[qwijibo]

29 minutes ago, Gollumpus said:

Hey, didn't I specify that I have "extensive knowledge on the subject"?   

 

Boeser has had some injury issues, with resulting loss in games played. One significant injury was from a collision into the boards which resulted in a back injury (and as far as I know there are no recurring issues). The other significant injury issue was from a groin injury, and to my knowledge there are no ongoing problems. And he's still scored 75 goals in 197 games, compared to Domi's 81 goals in 375 games. Or, if we just use the last two seasons (for Domi's time in Montreal) Boeser has scored 42 times in 127 games. Domi has scored 45 times in 153 games. (Feel free to check my addition, I'm watching baseball atm and they are always talking numbers)

 

Boeser may not be as fast as some other players, but he is by no means slow (is he?). This being said, there is some discussion regarding Montreal's "speed game" and the centers who Boeser would likely be playing with:

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2018/8/24/17749254/analyzing-jesperi-kotkaniemi-skating-ability-video-breakdown-liiga-highlights-canadiens-top-25

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2020/2/16/21139501/micro-analysis-video-canadiens-centres-nick-suzuki-speed-jake-evans-truculence-max-domi-simple-game

 

Boeser has a comparable number of goals in a comparable number of games in the two years prior to this season. and with a full(er) season his total points would (probably) be comparable for this season. He also spent a larger number of games not on the 1st line this past season (the Toffoli factor?), and a corresponding reduction in points might reflect this not playing with Pettersson.

 

Yes, Domi did well in one particular season. And what did he do last year, and why was there a fall back? There certainly seems to be an argument to be made that Boeser is more consistent in number of goals scored per season. What were the factors in Domi having perhaps a career year in '18 - '19? Maybe it was line mates, or maybe he got more ice time, or better ice time in O-zone starts? 

 

                                                             regards,  G.

 

Actually, thanks for this discussion. Boser has been diminishing in my assessment (for some reason), and this examination has brought him back up. 

Domi’s career year he was used pretty much exclusively as a 2C with consistent wingers. He had excellent chemistry with Shaw (who also had a career year).  
 

This past season Domi was used as a winger on several occasions due to a lot of injuries to their top 9 forwards. He really had no consistency in his line mates.  Shaw was moved in a trade so that aspect was taken away as well.  
 

in Juliens exit interview this offseason he admitted Domi is better as a C. 
 

Domi still managed 44 points in 71 games.  Good for .61 ppg. That’s not far off his career average.  If you factor all the other circumstances in there really isn’t much of a red flag.  The only reason Montreal might look to move him is to address their need for a scoring winger.  The emergence of Suzuki (and to a lesser extent Kotkaniemi) at C  has given them the depth and flexibility to explore their options. 

[Darius]

16 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

Domi’s career year he was used pretty much exclusively as a 2C with consistent wingers. He had excellent chemistry with Shaw (who also had a career year).  
 

This past season Domi was used as a winger on several occasions due to a lot of injuries to their top 9 forwards. He really had no consistency in his line mates.  Shaw was moved in a trade so that aspect was taken away as well.  
 

in Juliens exit interview this offseason he admitted Domi is better as a C. 
 

Domi still managed 44 points in 71 games.  Good for .61 ppg. That’s not far off his career average.  If you factor all the other circumstances in there really isn’t much of a red flag.  The only reason Montreal might look to move him is to address their need for a scoring winger.  The emergence of Suzuki (and to a lesser extent Kotkaniemi) at C  has given them the depth and flexibility to explore their options. 

If you are going to trade one of youR best trade chips why on earth wouldn’t you fix the d instead of getting domi who MIGHT be able to replace BB’s offence ( even though his career ppg is less... )   Makes no sense. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by Darius

[qwijibo]

Just now, Darius said:

If you are going to trade one if you best trade chips why on earth wouldn’t you fix the d instead of getting domi who MIGHT be able to replace BB’s offence ( even though his career ppg is less... )   Makes no sense. 

I’m not advocating the trade. I’m just arguing the Boeser does not have significantly more value than Domi. 

[Darius]

4 minutes ago, qwijibo said:

I’m not advocating the trade. I’m just arguing the Boeser does not have significantly more value than Domi. 

I take a different perspective.  For a fair comparison i look at the first three full years each player has had, in other words trying to compare them at roughly the same ages.  The ppg output is significantly better for Boeser vs Domi at the same stages in their careers, and to me its a gamble saying that he wont keep improving.  Domi has had one outlier year where he produced big, other than that he looks like a roughly 40 point player.   Boeser has some flaws, and needs to improve in certain areas but imho he is vastly under rated by some.  

 

 

[qwijibo]

2 minutes ago, Darius said:

I take a different perspective.  For a fair comparison i look at the first three full years each player has had, in other words trying to compare them at roughly the same ages.  The ppg output is significantly better for Boeser vs Domi at the same stages in their careers, and to me its a gamble saying that he wont keep improving.  Domi has had one outlier year where he produced big, other than that he looks like a roughly 40 point player.   Boeser has some flaws, and needs to improve in certain areas but imho he is vastly under rated by some.  

 

 

Analyze it however you like. I  prefer to look at the entire picture. 

[Darius]

Just now, qwijibo said:

Analyze it however you like. I  prefer to look at the entire picture. 

I look at the whole picture too.  A picture that includes two straight 9 goal seasons into the year that Domi was BB's age.    I dont see how a guy who looks like a 40 point player, outside of an outlier season, is just as valuable as the bigger, younger, better scoring forward.  Ill agree to disagree.

 

[JM_]

3 hours ago, aGENT said:

It's certainly something you can reference for some sort of baseline, sure. But like a lot of statistics it ignores some pretty important factors. And as you point out, it's fantasy based which is heavily biased towards offensive production (which likely explains a lot of their undervaluing Tanev as well, he's a crappy 'fantasy' player).

Natural Stat Trick gives a lot more detailed defensive info than Dobber and has a neat line tool that you can use to see the effects of players on and off lines. 

[tas]

On 9/29/2020 at 1:35 PM, Robert Long said:

thats an interesting idea. Winnipeg probably wants defence back in that deal tho.... oh god, I just realized that we're going to see Boeser to Montreal threads. 

boeser and sutter for danault and 16 overall ... ?

[JM_]

Just now, tas said:

boeser and sutter for danault and 16 overall ... ?

nyet. Petey likes Boeser, we need to keep Petey happy. 

[tas]

Just now, Robert Long said:

nyet. Petey likes Boeser, we need to keep Petey happy. 

I fully agree, don't worry. this core is too tight to tinker with right now. 

 

that said, people said the same thing about that scrub jonathan dahlen. petey's a pro.

[JM_]

Just now, tas said:

I fully agree, don't worry. this core is too tight to tinker with right now. 

 

that said, people said the same thing about that scrub jonathan dahlen. petey's a pro.

that was pretty funny, they had Dahlen pencilled in for 30 goals beside Petey 

[qwijibo]

47 minutes ago, Darius said:

I look at the whole picture too.  A picture that includes two straight 9 goal seasons into the year that Domi was BB's age.    I dont see how a guy who looks like a 40 point player, outside of an outlier season, is just as valuable as the bigger, younger, better scoring forward.  Ill agree to disagree.

 

52points

38 points, 

45 points 

72 points

44 points. 
 

but sure. He’s a 40 point guy 

 

[Darius]

Just now, qwijibo said:

52points

38 points, 

45 points 

72 points

44 points. 
 

but sure. He’s a 40 point guy 

 

your nitpicking now.  I said outside of the outlier season hes roughly a 40 point player.  Ok ill be more accurate - hes roughly a 45 point player.

 

Still doesnt change your argument that Domi and Boeser are on the same level.

[qwijibo]

1 minute ago, Darius said:

your nitpicking now.  I said outside of the outlier season hes roughly a 40 point player.  Ok ill be more accurate - hes roughly a 45 point player.

 

Still doesnt change your argument that Domi and Boeser are on the same level.

Look at the rest of my arguement.  There’s more to value than points.  Regardless. I’m done arguing with you over it.  Neither of us will change the others mind 

[Darius]

Just now, qwijibo said:

Look at the rest of my arguement.  There’s more to value than points.  Regardless. I’m done arguing with you over it.  Neither of us will change the others mind 

I didnt even think this was an argument, more of a discussion.   No need to respond any further.

 

I guess what gets me is I see BB offered up in practically every trade du Jour.  When I see him being equated with a guy that scored 9 goals at roughly the same age I guess i scratch my head.  Points win games, having a guy that can keep up with your top player's mental chess game also helps win games.  Domi is faster and rattles the boards more, i guess thats enough to equate the scales in some peoples minds.  Fair enough.

[qwijibo]

4 minutes ago, Darius said:

I didnt even think this was an argument, more of a discussion.   No need to respond any further.

 

I guess what gets me is I see BB offered up in practically every trade du Jour.  When I see him being equated with a guy that scored 9 goals at roughly the same age I guess i scratch my head.  Points win games, having a guy that can keep up with your top player's mental chess game also helps win games.  Domi is faster and rattles the boards more, i guess thats enough to equate the scales in some peoples minds.  Fair enough.

It’s not just that. Domi is a C which increase his value. (Maybe not to Vancouver, but in general trade equations a top 6 C is worth more than a top 6 W) 

 

He’s durable.  He really hasnt missed any significant time despite his style of play. Boeser has yet to play a complete season. It’s hard to put up points from the IR list 

 

So far he hasn’t had the benefit of playing with players the caliber of a Boesers linesmates. So while his ppg is lower who’s to say he couldn’t be significantly better with consistent line mates (look at his “outlier season”) 

 

He sticks up for his teammates.  
 

if you don’t see those things as positives that add to the value beyond the black and white point totals. That’s fine 

[BPA]

Boeser + Sutter + Roussel (french guy )

 

For

 

Domi + 2nd 2020 + prospect Brook.

 

 

Yeah ... I know...I'm bad at trades.