IBatch Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 12 hours ago, Provost said: The Tampa cap dump makes it even a better roster for us. Something like Eriksson, Virtanen and a lottery protected 1st as the cap dump from us. Killorn/Palat/Johnson and Cernak for Gaudette and maybe one of our D prospects. That above roster swaps out a legit top 6 forward for Virtanen. Fills both current holes on the roster with a long term piece on D. Why wouldn’t TB just work with Detroit or OTT instead in a way they don’t have 6 million of dead cap in their lineup? LEs worth about 2 at this point, but he still wouldn’t make their lineup even with these trades. JV would though. Maybe I’m missing something - like is this a three way proposal with LE ending up in Detroit? Maybe the best path is to see what we actually have in a AHL all-star Rafferty, Rathbone and OJ before we end up stuck with expensive support guys past LEs contract, lose JV and a first, maybe AG and a first. It’s only two more years ... one year Sutter, Edler, Bear, Pearson and co are done - that’s about 7 million in wasted cap space in this current market. And the following year 4-4.5 for LE after replacement, 1 for Roussel after replacement and 1-1.5 for Beagle plus 3 for Luongo. Add it all up and a lot of that’s going just to Edler/Replacement QHs and EP. Maybe enough left over for one more D and one more top six and that’s it and only if Covid helps with that. Wrecking our cap further now isn’t a smart move at all and I’m sure JB knows this otherwise we’d already have seen a buyout and a cap dump. We haven’t and doubt we will - we need every cheap young players we can get and more guys in the pipe - not less just to bolster a lineup early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 minute ago, IBatch said: Why wouldn’t TB just work with Detroit or OTT instead in a way they don’t have 6 million of dead cap in their lineup? LEs worth about 2 at this point, but he still wouldn’t make their lineup even with these trades. JV would though. Maybe I’m missing something - like is this a three way proposal with LE ending up in Detroit? Maybe the best path is to see what we actually have in a AHL all-star Rafferty, Rathbone and OJ before we end up stuck with expensive support guys past LEs contract, lose JV and a first, maybe AG and a first. It’s only two more years ... one year Sutter, Edler, Bear, Pearson and co are done - that’s about 7 million in wasted cap space in this current market. And the following year 4-4.5 for LE after replacement, 1 for Roussel after replacement and 1-1.5 for Beagle plus 3 for Luongo. Add it all up and a lot of that’s going just to Edler/Replacement QHs and EP. Maybe enough left over for one more D and one more top six and that’s it and only if Covid helps with that. Wrecking our cap further now isn’t a smart move at all and I’m sure JB knows this otherwise we’d already have seen a buyout and a cap dump. We haven’t and doubt we will - we need every cheap young players we can get and more guys in the pipe - not less just to bolster a lineup early. I answered this a few times. All of the Tampa players they have to move have either full or partial no trade clauses. They clearly aren't waiving those clauses to go from a championship team to a bottom feeder, especially when the tax difference will cost them millions of dollars. There is no incentive for them to do that at all, especially since it is the team just wanting to give their promised and contracted money to someone else. It has been reported that Tampa is trying to get Johnson to expand the list of teams he is willing to move to, so they clearly believe they could deal him if it weren't for his trade protection. If none of those guys had all that trade protection, you could be sure at least one of them would be in Ottawa and/or Detroit... maybe even Buffalo. The teams that have the cap space. So Tampa's only play is to swing a 3 way deal, or find a team to make a deal with where that team has to first move out cap space. So it has to be either a 3 way trade where one of those players ends up with us (or another team on their acceptable list), or two trades where we clear cap space and then make the deal for one of those Tampa guys. They need to clear out about $12-15 million to fit in all of Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. If they waive all of Johnson, Gourde, Palat, and Killorn... they probably need three of those guys to get picked up to clear enough space. If you knew you could get a 1st or Cernak from Tampa plus one of their still very useful excess players, what would you pay to get rid of Eriksson who is completely dead cap? Heck, even swapping lottery protected 2022 1st round picks (our presumably better one for Tampa's presumably worse one) to also swap Eriksson for Killorn would be a huge win for us. We get a top 6 player for the privilege of dropping down by about 10 spots at most (or even not dropping at all depending on the playoff results). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandmaster Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Reported spots for Hoffman and his one year deal: https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2039505 The majority of the marquee free agents are now off the board, but Mike Hoffmancontinues to search for his next destination. It was reported Thursday that the 30-year-old is open to signing a one-year contract, which gives prospective teams more flexibility to bring in the dangerous goal-scorer. Here are five clubs in a position to make a splash by bringing in Hoffman for one season. Nashville Predators Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $12.94MRoster size: 19RFAs: F Luke Kunin The Predators have been contenders for years and boast one of the league's top defensive cores. Despite their skill at forward, however, their offense still leaves something to be desired. Hoffman has his faults, but there's no denying his goal-scoring talent. Adding the sniper for one year could just be the missing piece that puts the Nashville over the top. Nashville ranks 18th in goals per game since the start of the 2018-19 campaign, and Hoffman would have led the club in tallies in each of those two seasons. The Ontario native isn't a great scorer at five-on-five, but his services on the man advantage would be invaluable for the Predators, who have been abysmal in that department in recent years. Nashville's power play placed 31st and 25th over the previous two seasons, while Hoffman ranks fifth among all players with 28 power-play markers over that span. General manager Dave Poile said Thursday that he'll continue to search for ways to improve his club this offseason. With plenty of cap space and a nearly full roster, swinging on Hoffman with a low-risk, high-reward deal seems like an enticing option. Boston Bruins Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty Project cap space: $10.35MRoster size: 21RFAs: F Jake DeBrusk, D Matt Grzelcyk The Bruins were reportedly interested in most of the big-name free agents such as Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo but ultimately lost out. Now, with a depleted free-agent group to chose from, it could prove wise to bring in Hoffman on a one-year contract. Boston has the cap space to make a one-year deal work, and it's been made clear that the club has been looking for a winger to play on the second line with David Krejcito complement the team's top trio. Now that Brad Marchand and David Pastrnakmay miss a portion of next season after undergoing surgeries recently, Hoffman's talents could be more necessary than ever. Last season, Patrice Bergeron, Pastrnak, and Marchand combined to score 107 of Boston's 227 goals (47%). The team is desperate for secondary scoring help, and Hoffman offers just that. There would be little risk in signing him to a short-term contract, and if things go smoothly, the two sides could decide to work out a longer deal in the future. Hoffman's fit on the Bruins makes perfect sense, so perhaps we'll finally see GM Don Sweeney make a big move this offseason. Los Angeles Kings Darcy Finley / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $13.62MRoster size: 19RFAs: None The Kings don't appear to be an obvious landing spot for Hoffman, but hear us out. It's unlikely he wins a Stanley Cup there in 2020-21, but Los Angeles is one of the strongest possession teams in the league, and adding a pure goal-scorer like Hoffman could help catalyze an unpolished offense that lacks some touch. Los Angeles finished 30th in goals per game (2.53) last season, but head coach Todd McLellan saw his club buy into an aggressive, in-your-face brand of hockey that would have yielded better results if it had a few more finishers. The Kings finished in the top 10 in several critical possession metrics at five-on-five. CF% (RANK) SF% HDCF% XGF% 53.1 (4th) 52.79 (4th) 51.44 (9th) 51.95 (8th) Captain Anze Kopitar - the Kings' lone 20-goal scorer in 2019-20 - led the team in scoring with 62 points, and Alex Iafallo was the only other player to break 40. Hoffman averaged 61 points over his previous five campaigns, and L.A. adding a dynamic winger alongside Kopitar would undoubtedly bolster the offense. Los Angeles could also use a power-play specialist after finishing 26th on the man advantage last season. Columbus Blue Jackets Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $13.63MRoster size: 19RFAs: F Pierre-Luc Dubois, F Kevin Stenlund, D Vladislav Gavrikov Columbus isn't exactly a free-agent hot spot, but the Blue Jackets have shown a ton of promise in recent years and have already added offensive depth with the additions of Max Domi, Mikko Koivu, and Mikhail Grigorenko this offseason. The club has a handful of RFAs in need of new deals, but only Dubois is set for a significant pay raise. Hoffman isn't Artemi Panarin, but the Blue Jackets' upset over the juggernaut Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2019 playoffs is proof of what the team can do when equipped with high-end offensive talent. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen can sell his club as a defensive machine that's one or two premier scorers away from making a serious run, and Hoffman could certainly move the needle. Signing a one-year deal with the defensive-minded Blue Jackets could pose a risk for Hoffman, but it's unlikely that a potential down year would tarnish his market value in 2021-22. Flanking the wing of either Dubois or Domi doesn't sound like a bad gig, either. Like the Predators and Kings, the Blue Jackets need help on the man advantage, and Hoffman would likely be the club's No. 1 option. Florida Panthers Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty Projected cap space: $11.56MRoster size: 18RFAs: D MacKenzie Weegar, F Aleksi Saarela The Panthers' abundance of cap space makes bringing back Hoffman a distinct possibility. Over the past two seasons, his 65 goals rank first on the team and his 129 points rank third. Florida already lost Evgenii Dadonov to the Ottawa Senators, so with a glaring hole at left wing, the club can ill afford to lose Hoffman too. GM Bill Zito has been busy in his first few months with the team, bringing in the likes of Patric Hornqvist, Alexander Wennberg, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Carter Verhaeghe. The four forwards combined for 36 goals last season - Hoffman buried 29 on his own. Replacing a lethal goal-scorer is never an easy task, and few options remain on the market for Florida at this point in the offseason. With the cap space to make it work, perhaps Hoffman circles back and signs for one year before hitting free agency again next season. (Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just now, grandmaster said: Reported spots for Hoffman and his one year deal: https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2039505 The majority of the marquee free agents are now off the board, but Mike Hoffmancontinues to search for his next destination. It was reported Thursday that the 30-year-old is open to signing a one-year contract, which gives prospective teams more flexibility to bring in the dangerous goal-scorer. Here are five clubs in a position to make a splash by bringing in Hoffman for one season. Nashville Predators Andy Devlin / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $12.94MRoster size: 19RFAs: F Luke Kunin The Predators have been contenders for years and boast one of the league's top defensive cores. Despite their skill at forward, however, their offense still leaves something to be desired. Hoffman has his faults, but there's no denying his goal-scoring talent. Adding the sniper for one year could just be the missing piece that puts the Nashville over the top. Nashville ranks 18th in goals per game since the start of the 2018-19 campaign, and Hoffman would have led the club in tallies in each of those two seasons. The Ontario native isn't a great scorer at five-on-five, but his services on the man advantage would be invaluable for the Predators, who have been abysmal in that department in recent years. Nashville's power play placed 31st and 25th over the previous two seasons, while Hoffman ranks fifth among all players with 28 power-play markers over that span. General manager Dave Poile said Thursday that he'll continue to search for ways to improve his club this offseason. With plenty of cap space and a nearly full roster, swinging on Hoffman with a low-risk, high-reward deal seems like an enticing option. Boston Bruins Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty Project cap space: $10.35MRoster size: 21RFAs: F Jake DeBrusk, D Matt Grzelcyk The Bruins were reportedly interested in most of the big-name free agents such as Taylor Hall and Alex Pietrangelo but ultimately lost out. Now, with a depleted free-agent group to chose from, it could prove wise to bring in Hoffman on a one-year contract. Boston has the cap space to make a one-year deal work, and it's been made clear that the club has been looking for a winger to play on the second line with David Krejcito complement the team's top trio. Now that Brad Marchand and David Pastrnakmay miss a portion of next season after undergoing surgeries recently, Hoffman's talents could be more necessary than ever. Last season, Patrice Bergeron, Pastrnak, and Marchand combined to score 107 of Boston's 227 goals (47%). The team is desperate for secondary scoring help, and Hoffman offers just that. There would be little risk in signing him to a short-term contract, and if things go smoothly, the two sides could decide to work out a longer deal in the future. Hoffman's fit on the Bruins makes perfect sense, so perhaps we'll finally see GM Don Sweeney make a big move this offseason. Los Angeles Kings Darcy Finley / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $13.62MRoster size: 19RFAs: None The Kings don't appear to be an obvious landing spot for Hoffman, but hear us out. It's unlikely he wins a Stanley Cup there in 2020-21, but Los Angeles is one of the strongest possession teams in the league, and adding a pure goal-scorer like Hoffman could help catalyze an unpolished offense that lacks some touch. Los Angeles finished 30th in goals per game (2.53) last season, but head coach Todd McLellan saw his club buy into an aggressive, in-your-face brand of hockey that would have yielded better results if it had a few more finishers. The Kings finished in the top 10 in several critical possession metrics at five-on-five. CF% (RANK) SF% HDCF% XGF% 53.1 (4th) 52.79 (4th) 51.44 (9th) 51.95 (8th) Captain Anze Kopitar - the Kings' lone 20-goal scorer in 2019-20 - led the team in scoring with 62 points, and Alex Iafallo was the only other player to break 40. Hoffman averaged 61 points over his previous five campaigns, and L.A. adding a dynamic winger alongside Kopitar would undoubtedly bolster the offense. Los Angeles could also use a power-play specialist after finishing 26th on the man advantage last season. Columbus Blue Jackets Mark Blinch / National Hockey League / Getty Projected cap space: $13.63MRoster size: 19RFAs: F Pierre-Luc Dubois, F Kevin Stenlund, D Vladislav Gavrikov Columbus isn't exactly a free-agent hot spot, but the Blue Jackets have shown a ton of promise in recent years and have already added offensive depth with the additions of Max Domi, Mikko Koivu, and Mikhail Grigorenko this offseason. The club has a handful of RFAs in need of new deals, but only Dubois is set for a significant pay raise. Hoffman isn't Artemi Panarin, but the Blue Jackets' upset over the juggernaut Tampa Bay Lightning during the 2019 playoffs is proof of what the team can do when equipped with high-end offensive talent. General manager Jarmo Kekalainen can sell his club as a defensive machine that's one or two premier scorers away from making a serious run, and Hoffman could certainly move the needle. Signing a one-year deal with the defensive-minded Blue Jackets could pose a risk for Hoffman, but it's unlikely that a potential down year would tarnish his market value in 2021-22. Flanking the wing of either Dubois or Domi doesn't sound like a bad gig, either. Like the Predators and Kings, the Blue Jackets need help on the man advantage, and Hoffman would likely be the club's No. 1 option. Florida Panthers Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty Projected cap space: $11.56MRoster size: 18RFAs: D MacKenzie Weegar, F Aleksi Saarela The Panthers' abundance of cap space makes bringing back Hoffman a distinct possibility. Over the past two seasons, his 65 goals rank first on the team and his 129 points rank third. Florida already lost Evgenii Dadonov to the Ottawa Senators, so with a glaring hole at left wing, the club can ill afford to lose Hoffman too. GM Bill Zito has been busy in his first few months with the team, bringing in the likes of Patric Hornqvist, Alexander Wennberg, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Carter Verhaeghe. The four forwards combined for 36 goals last season - Hoffman buried 29 on his own. Replacing a lethal goal-scorer is never an easy task, and few options remain on the market for Florida at this point in the offseason. With the cap space to make it work, perhaps Hoffman circles back and signs for one year before hitting free agency again next season. (Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick) all better options than him winding up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 4 hours ago, Provost said: I answered this a few times. All of the Tampa players they have to move have either full or partial no trade clauses. They clearly aren't waiving those clauses to go from a championship team to a bottom feeder, especially when the tax difference will cost them millions of dollars. There is no incentive for them to do that at all, especially since it is the team just wanting to give their promised and contracted money to someone else. It has been reported that Tampa is trying to get Johnson to expand the list of teams he is willing to move to, so they clearly believe they could deal him if it weren't for his trade protection. If none of those guys had all that trade protection, you could be sure at least one of them would be in Ottawa and/or Detroit... maybe even Buffalo. The teams that have the cap space. So Tampa's only play is to swing a 3 way deal, or find a team to make a deal with where that team has to first move out cap space. So it has to be either a 3 way trade where one of those players ends up with us (or another team on their acceptable list), or two trades where we clear cap space and then make the deal for one of those Tampa guys. They need to clear out about $12-15 million to fit in all of Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. If they waive all of Johnson, Gourde, Palat, and Killorn... they probably need three of those guys to get picked up to clear enough space. If you knew you could get a 1st or Cernak from Tampa plus one of their still very useful excess players, what would you pay to get rid of Eriksson who is completely dead cap? Heck, even swapping lottery protected 2022 1st round picks (our presumably better one for Tampa's presumably worse one) to also swap Eriksson for Killorn would be a huge win for us. We get a top 6 player for the privilege of dropping down by about 10 spots at most (or even not dropping at all depending on the playoff results). That’s all just a dream... never going to happen in a million years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 4 hours ago, IBatch said: Why wouldn’t TB just work with Detroit or OTT instead in a way they don’t have 6 million of dead cap in their lineup? LEs worth about 2 at this point, but he still wouldn’t make their lineup even with these trades. JV would though. Maybe I’m missing something - like is this a three way proposal with LE ending up in Detroit? Maybe the best path is to see what we actually have in a AHL all-star Rafferty, Rathbone and OJ before we end up stuck with expensive support guys past LEs contract, lose JV and a first, maybe AG and a first. It’s only two more years ... one year Sutter, Edler, Bear, Pearson and co are done - that’s about 7 million in wasted cap space in this current market. And the following year 4-4.5 for LE after replacement, 1 for Roussel after replacement and 1-1.5 for Beagle plus 3 for Luongo. Add it all up and a lot of that’s going just to Edler/Replacement QHs and EP. Maybe enough left over for one more D and one more top six and that’s it and only if Covid helps with that. Wrecking our cap further now isn’t a smart move at all and I’m sure JB knows this otherwise we’d already have seen a buyout and a cap dump. We haven’t and doubt we will - we need every cheap young players we can get and more guys in the pipe - not less just to bolster a lineup early. Even if Tampa is unable to deal with the cap dump receivers of the NHL....because of limiting clauses....they aren't necessarily limited to those teams - and the leverage they have in those deals varies considerably depending on how people perceive their options... I'd don't think it will take them 12-15 + 2.895 million (existing space, with the rest of their roster signed)...to sign these 3 RFAs.... I think it's and important point because it impacts the amount of actual leverage (vs perceived) that teams would have in negotiations for those forwards (who themselves have varying values.) So - attempting to calculate the amount of cap they will need.... Sergachev 34 pts, 70 games (20 even strength) 20:22 of ice time (3rd on Tampa's blueline). 54.7% ozone starts, 52.9% corsi. 106 hits, 99 blocks, 39 giveaways, 18 takeaways What's interesting/useful re: Sergachev's market value/expected contract - is that his partner just hit free agency and re-signed. Shattenkirk was very comparable in many ways this season... 34 pts, 70 games, (27 even strength) 18:54 ice time 53.2% ozone starts, 53.7% corsi. 62 hits, 66 blocks, 34 giveaways, 32 takeaways. Sergachev was used as a secondary/replacement penatly killer (1:09/g) where Shattenkirk was not. Shattenkirk signed a one year deal for 3.9 million in Anaheim - also obviously 10 years older, (31 yrs)... Sergachev = clearly the most significant expired RFA contract - imo would be surprising if it exceeded $6 million (Point's 6.75, although not a 'comparable' might/probably be a ceiling that Sergachev can't expect to reach).... Sergachev has 3 comparable years of NHL experience to weight his deal. I'm going to ballpark him around 6 million. Open to whatever people may believe is inaccurate or unaccounted for there. Cirelli 16, 28, 44pts, +28 48.1% ozone starts, 52.6% corsi 18:28 g / 3rd among Tampa forwards. Outstanding goal metrics = 3.8 on ice goals for per 60, 2.0 against 2:48 / game of pk lead all Tampa forwards. Played with Killorn principally - with a range of RW - Stamkos, Palat, Johnson... In similar ways to Sergachev = Cirelli's numbers compare quite closely with Killorn (49pts and a range of other comparables). Killorn is a 4.45 million cap hit - and probably fair to consider the two to have comparable market value imo - Killorn has been a comparable player fairly consistently through this and his previous contracts....Cirelli is younger - and arguably more important/valuable - a center, a primary penalty killer (although Killorn was 3rd among Tampa forwards at 2:12/game - and had 2:35/g of pp ice time, where 8 of his goals came).... I'd give Cirelli an edge in value in spite of RFA status. Cirelli was in his 2nd (comparable) NHL season. I'm going to ballpark him 4.5 to 5 million (in order to fall on the 'generous' side, so no to underestimate Tampa's cap needs). Cernak 5, 7, 12 pts, +11 18:57 ice time = 4th on Tampa's blueline 47.2% ozone starts, 52.5% corsi 172 hits, 97 blocks. Played with McDonagh (55.8% of 5on5 time), Hedman (27.6) Cernak was their #2 pk D - similar goal metrics to his partners First year of NHL experience. That he's a rookie, and played with Tampa's two biggest minute D - it's more difficult to assess him relatively - players in these circumstances imo tend to come in at closer to bridge and a fraction closer to expiring ELC terms....(700k, 2nd round pick) vs a rookie season as their #4... I would think he's likely to come in around $3 million - but might be asked to consider Tampa's circumstances, that he has one year in as leverage, etc....I think 3 is a reasonable 'guestimation' Sergachev 6 Cirelli 4.5/5 Cernak 3 13.5/14 - 2.895 = that would/might put them in the range of needing 10.5 to 11 million of cap clearance (not quite 12-15). Palat 5.3 x 2 Killorn 4.45 x 3 The more moveable of their forwards - 9.75 million combined. I think there's a fair margin between a Killorn or Palat at shorter term - guys that might be considered to have relatively 'neutral' value - vs their cap dumps.... Gourde 5.16 x 5 years Johnson 5 x 4 years Cap dumps - with considerable negative value - 10.16 million combined. The thing about the proximity that moving two of those contracts gets them - is that they might be able to bridge any remainder by dumping Coburn's 1 yr deal as opposed to having to dump a third of those forwards - a critical/significant difference in their leverage and a range in the potential value that it will cost them to move contracts. Dealing the two more moveable guys + Coburn - could get them into a range where they don't have to spend considerable futures to dump cap - and it mitigates the immediate cost of re-signing their RFAs....not having to sacrifice 1st round picks, etc - to create enough cap, would probably play into their determination/willingness to keep all three. I think the necessity will be to move 2 forwards to get them within a million of the upper projections- (with a possibilty of them also trimming a bit off those RFA re-signings relative to what I've guestimated)....Coburn could become the lesser, smaller dump necessary. I don't think Tampa is quite as compromised, needing to move 2 forwards / might get them close enough. So - imo - if a person expected to gain a 1st round pick or comparable by mere virtue of taking on a Palat or Killorn - I think that is wishful thinking - and by extension - if 'we' wanted a Foote type player back - it's likely we have to pay for that asset ie one Palat or Killorn would likely still cost a Gaudette to get that second piece. I consider the other two 20 million cap dumps to be poor options for this team, particularly at this time representing longer term, overpaid 'bad'/negative value contracts, and a future roster spot that would be better kept open for talented forwards in the system.....Even Palat at 2 yrs or Killorn at 3 commit us to reusing the bulk of Eriksson's cap for another veteran forward - something that would take a considerable pick or prospect to dump....the only real incentive there is the second piece of that deal, which if it's a player like Foote for example, Tampa might need to move regardless (because of the e.d. - in which case 'we' should simply target that player alone and forego the need to dump Eriksson in order to six-and-one-half-dozen this deal. Not enough incentive in any of these deals to want to swap out LE only to reburn ourselves with Johnson. Palat or Killorn - or just make the straight up offers for Cernak or Foote - otherwise nevermind....and even Palat or Killorn might not represent this team's best opportunities in the present market... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, oldnews said: Sergachev 6 Cirelli 4.5/5 Cernak 3 13.5/14 - 2.895 = that would/might put them in the range of needing 10.5 to 11 million of cap clearance (not quite 12-15). You forgot to account for actually having to replace the players they shed and making at least a 22 man roster. That kind of makes a massive difference... $2.9 million in space with ONLY 18 players signed. Even at $1 million average per extra player to make only carrying a 22 man roster instead of 23, they are a million over the cap without signing any expensive RFAs. Add in the $13.5-14 million you stated for those 3 RFAs and they are $14.5-15 million over the cap with 25 players signed. Drop two of their dead cap guys like you suggest, Killorn and Johnson ($9.5 million total) they are still $5.5-6.5 million over the cap with a 23 man roster. They still need to drop a couple more players. Take away Palat at $5.3 million and they are still over the cap by between $200k-$1.2 million and are running with only a 22 man roster and have zero space for short term injury call ups. Take away Colburn at $1.7 and you are between $900k-$1.9 under the cap... but you are only at 32 players and have to replace him with a cheap approx $1 million dollar player. That leaves you at between $200k-$1.2 million under the cap with a 22 man roster.. right around where you have to be for short term injury call ups, especially when you aren’t carrying a full 23 man roster. So you assertion that is am wrong about needing to clear $12-15 million in cap is just plain wrong. The above, Palat, Johnson, Killorn, and Colburn are a total of around $16.5 million that needs to be shed... and replaced by cheap $1 million dollar players and that barely gets you under the cap .. which is hard to do considering we are rising about three top 9 forwards So ya, they need to clear a lot out more cap than you are suggesting. Edited October 17, 2020 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Provost said: You forgot to account for actually having to replace the players they shed and making at least a 22 man roster. That kind of makes a massive difference... $2.9 million in space with ONLY 18 players signed. Even at $1 million average per extra player to make only carrying a 22 man roster instead of 23, they are a million over the cap without signing any expensive RFAs. Add in the $13.5-14 million you stated for those 3 RFAs and they are $14.5-15 million over the cap with 25 players signed. Drop two of their dead cap guys like you suggest, Killorn and Johnson ($9.5 million total) they are still $5.5-6.5 million over the cap with a 23 man roster. They still need to drop a couple more players. Take away Palat at $5.3 million and they are still over the cap by between $200k-$1.2 million and are running with only a 22 man roster and have zero space for short term injury call ups. Take away Colburn at $1.7 and you are between $900k-$1.9 under the cap... but you are only at 32 players and have to replace him with a cheap approx $1 million dollar player. That leaves you at between $200k-$1.2 million under the cap with a 22 man roster.. right around where you have to be for short term injury call ups, especially when you aren’t carrying a full 23 man roster. So you assertion that is am wrong about needing to clear $12-15 million in cap is just plain wrong. The above, Palat, Johnson, Killorn, and Colburn are a total of around $16.5 million that needs to be shed... and replaced by cheap $1 million dollar players and that barely gets you under the cap .. which is hard to do considering we are rising about three top 9 forwards So ya, they need to clear a lot out more cap than you are suggesting. Nothing "plain wrong" about it - you're hedging in various senses - I see you've editted the irrelevent point about needing to insert Foote in the lineup - the entire point of the spitball was to assume that they intend to sign the three RFAs - which is the hand they have publicly tipped. Whether they change their mind, or that is mere misdirection (ie GM's don't always "tell the truth") doesn't matter much - the point is to see how tight their cap situations will be - and whether they will necessarily have to move 3 of those 5 million range contracts. So let's look at this more accurately - without blank spots or confusion about who or what cap would replace who. Guestimations done on the 3 RFAs: Sergachev 6 Cirelli 4.5/5 Cernak 3 =13.5/14 - 2.895 existing space = 10.6 required to sign these three (at those fairly generous terms - if I were betting/guessing, I suspect Cirelli will come in closer to 3.5/4, on a short deal) 13 F 6 D Palat 5.3 x 2 and Killorn 4.45 x 3 dealt 9.75 million cleared 10.6 needed -9.75 cleared = .85 needed. 11 F 6 D Dump Coburn with a late round pick. 1.7 million cleared. Recall Foote and Borgman = 1.625 million (replace either of them with another "Schenn"/pick your UFA - doesn't matter) - but using two signed players.... net .075 k 11F 7 D 2 G .85 needed - .075 = 775k needed + 2 forwards/recalls. Recall Volkov (863k) and/or Joseph (728k) and/or Smith (700k) and/or Barre-Boulet (759k) or UFA.... 1.5 million range + 775k = 2.25 million range needed - a maximum range given I have intentionally guestimated high on their RFA re-ups. Gourde and Johnson are a pair of guys that get 3rd line volumes of minutes with 3rd line production - they'll have to remain in Tampa's middle six, even if it repesents a 'step back' = yes the losses of Palat and Killorn are a 2nd and 3rd line forwards / a pair of tweeners - but between Gourde/Johnson and a few young forwards (or cheap UFA) to step into Tampa's 3rd line or bottom six - they don't have much choice without spending something significant to dump Gourde or Johnson. That is where it gets complicated for them - whether they value that cost in futures more than a Cernak or Cirelli? That is difficult/impossible to really say. Can they squeeze a million out of Sergachev? Is 5 million too optomistic? Maybe - so let's hypothesize that it's not 'realistic' - that he bridges for 6 million.... Can they squeeze a million less out of Cirelli? I don't know, but I think 4.5-5 is fairly liberal bridge for a 2nd year NHL 3C (albeit, I'd say a high end one), in the current market - I suspect they'd ask him to offset a bit of his pay a year or two.... In my opinion they'd be in the range of 1.25 - 2.25 million short depending on the Cirelli contract. Regardless of whether it's Killorn or Palat or Gourde or Johnson - there's not much difference/margin. One thing that complicates it for them - they don't have many contracts between the 1 million and 4.45 of Killorn - so their options narrow, beyond Coburn, to players like Paquette or (Coleman, unlikely...) Can they dump Paquette (1.65 million) to get closer via another replacement level contract? Could that get them 800 or 900k closer? Too within 325k to 425k to 1.325/1.425 milllion....Once it gets that close you wonder how much wiggle there is with each RFA.... It gets tight - with not many options in between a Gourde - and a Paquette.... It's not clear either way - it is possible they can squeeze in without having to deal a 3rd 5 million contract....which opens the above can of worms. Interesting - that no team has bothered to offersheet them - or at least has not appeared to.....Whether that's because the phone lines are hot enough, and teams realize that they have the necessary trap doors, or deals in the works...who knows? In terms of the Canucks - I would be out (Schmidt deal may/probably precludes any hope of acquiring one of those forwards and a Cernak - particularly before moving cap. With the exception of looking to deal prospect or pick for Foote - which again, if they are re-signing Cernak remains a possibility - the Canucks probably aren't in a position to be in on these contract dumps (and perhaps appropriately prioritized Schmidt over this option. Tampa may have the ability to inch their way through the situation without a large loss via a 3rd forward move/significant cap dump. If they value Foote more - possibly retaining him through the e.d. - again it gets interesting if he's on the market - particularly if he's not attached to a forward contract - if they are willing to make other moves separately....In that case - none of the forwards as necessary pieces - perhaps that's worth being in on - however, of the three RFAs he will be the least difficult to accommodate re-signing - will probably be the least of the three contracts.... I think the Schmidt deal probably precludes any 5 million forward coming this way - and even if this team could clear the cap = I personally would not be using that cap on one of those forward with the hope of prying Cernak - it reaches the point of defeating the purpose imo, committing the team to that cap when it has other more important priorites in the next few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, oldnews said: I kept all the pertinent parts of your post and removed all the long winded WADR. So you argued that I was wrong and overestimating in saying they needed to clear $12-15 million in cap by postulating (in an amazingly tortured post) that if they just ditched Palat, Killorn, Colburn, and another $2.25 million somewhere they could fit under the cap. That equals... let’s see.... Palat $5.3 + Killorn $4.45 + Colburn $1.7 + another $2.25 million. Lets add that up... $13.7... hmm is that in the $12-15 range? You also managed that amazing math by deciding your original RFA salary estimates for their RFAs was really millions too high, and that a Stanley Cup champ was going to replace 4 high performing players including two top 6 players with the cheapest possible AHL level prospects on $700k contracts and wouldn’t even be able to spring for $1 million dollar top 6 players. That is amazing logic... of yours. $13.7 million (using your own numbers) is somehow not between $12-15 million AND Tampa Bay believes its window is closed by removing all their depth and replacing them with a bunch of AHL level rookies... They also have to run a man short of a full roster AND have zero dollars for short term injury call ups on top of all that. I guess just admitting you were wrong is not an option... got it. Have a wonderful night. Edited October 17, 2020 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, Provost said: woosh. "so what you're saying".... the "4 high performing players" part is my favorite. prattle removed, substance quoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teepain Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Who is even willing to take those players? Palat $5.3 + Killorn $4.45 + Colburn $1.7 + contenders are up against the cap + the bottom dwellers dont want to spend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, teepain said: Who is even willing to take those players? Palat $5.3 + Killorn $4.45 + Colburn $1.7 + contenders are up against the cap + the bottom dwellers dont want to spend Good question - especially in the context of this team likely not being an option post Schmidt deal - but at least those guys have relatively neutral value where other teams who may be interested are concerned.... Those two forwards are an easier sell than Gourde or Johnson - who aint 'high performing' players - they are 5 million dollar 30 pt forwards with 4 and 5 years of term remaining.... Coburn is otherwise the least expensive cap they can dump (perhaps Paquette as well without moving into their key assets or getting into costly dumps. At the point they have to spend considerable assets to dump 20+ million cap dumps - they may in fact double back and decide to move Cernak instead - (and retain Foote...) They are going to have to take at least a couple middle six roster losses at relatively neutral value / little to no return at best - and possibly Paquette as well - while having to sweeten to dump Coburn, to get close. I think at the point they have to dump Gourde or Johnson, the price may get too high - depending on how much they value Cernak. That they haven't been offersheeted yet is interesting. Edited October 17, 2020 by oldnews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, teepain said: Who is even willing to take those players? Palat $5.3 + Killorn $4.45 + Colburn $1.7 + contenders are up against the cap + the bottom dwellers dont want to spend Even more... those players have NTCs and haven’t waived them to go to bottom feeders, and no particular reason to believe that they intend to... why would they. That is where the whole Vancouver getting involved idea came from. We have a couple of players with little cash owed that we “could” entice into taking on with a sweetener. Eriksson will get paid about $700k in real cash this year after the 30% escrow/deferral is accounted for. He will be owed about another $3 million next year. That is a lot easier for a budget team to absorb than a real cash outlay at 3 times or more of that for one of the Tampa forwards (even if they agreed to go there). You could foresee us swapping out dead cap for a useful Tampa player and a 3rd team taking on a low cash contract like Eriksson for a sweetener. Tampa needs to do something, several things... and badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alienhuggyflow Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 So according to Drance Hoffman hAs a preferred choice (Us) and is waiting to see if Benning can make the cap work. I think Benning will buy someone out and trade LE or Sutter. I have zero issue trading a couple of 2nds or even a first if it gets LE and his cap hit put towards someone else. Even more since the LE contract has zero to do with any of the ELCs that expire next summer. If he pulls this off, HF will be eating crow especially the idiots who ranked him as the 3rd worst GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Alienhuggyflow said: So according to Drance Hoffman hAs a preferred choice (Us) and is waiting to see if Benning can make the cap work. I think Benning will buy someone out and trade LE or Sutter. I have zero issue trading a couple of 2nds or even a first if it gets LE and his cap hit put towards someone else. Even more since the LE contract has zero to do with any of the ELCs that expire next summer. If he pulls this off, HF will be eating crow especially the idiots who ranked him as the 3rd worst GM. If we’re trading a 1st to dump Eriksson it better not be to acquire Hoffman. Only way I do that deal is if you have a separate deal to acquire a young D man or forward who’s locked into a contract. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliboy Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 When he played in the playoffs for the Sens it was not impressive at all, he was never there when the game was on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted October 17, 2020 Share Posted October 17, 2020 Hoffman’s underlying numbers are very bad. 29th percentile for goals above replacement, getting hammered on even strength defense with par even strength offensive numbers. Looks to be a power play specialist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms.Glitter Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 https://www.sportsnet.ca/650/the-program/june-18-the-canucks-have-kicked-the-tires-on-hoffman/ https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/10/latest-on-mike-hoffmans-market.html There were rumours a couple of years ago, and now we are hearing them again about interest in Hoffman. He is such a consistent scorer, and would be so dangerous in our top 6. GMJB is certainly paying attention to locker room chemistry, so Hoffman's baggage might not sit well, but strictly hockey from a hockey sense, I would like him here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#Canucks Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 I hope not! Virtanen needs this chance to fill that spot in the top six. If he doesn’t put it together look for other options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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