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Offer sheeting Cernak (Discussion/Proposal)


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Now, I realize that Offer sheets are rare and seldom work in the NHL

 

But, I am wondering why? 

Is it that GM's are afraid to upset other GM's

Is it that the offers are always underwhelming and easily matched?

Is it about retaliation?

Is it something else that I can not see?

 

To me, this under minds the basis spirit of the CBA, and stinks of back room collusion, amongst all NHL gm's and owners.

To me, any fear of retaliation could be remedied by simply signing your players before they get to free agency

This is simply a question of a GM's future planning or lack of. 

Benning, has put himself in a hole, and it will cost him to get out, but IMO, Benning's problem, is the fact he said he was ready to compete

and that he had enough cap and horses to proceed...............IMO, he has set the franchise back several years

This is also true in Tampa Bay, but they have a Stanley Cup to show for it.

IMO, GM's should be held responsible for not trying to do the best job possible.....................which includes offer sheets.

Benning has made mistakes over the past, but his drafting has softened the opinion on him.

Benning has put himself in a pickle jar, and has made himself a target..............JIm must make some tough decisions.

The obvious offer sheets is a part of his get out of jail free card, and a successful one would soften what has been a tough Free agency campaign.

 

Now, with Cernak, we talk about offer sheeting him at 4.3 Million per, which would cost a second round pick

a second round pick that would normally take 3/4 years to develop, if it ever did, that is if there was actually a candidate suitable at that time.

So, now my question is.........How good is Cernak?........Could he actually be a #2, or is his ceiling that of a 3/4?

 

"IF" he is a showing as a 2/3 caliber Dman..............go out and get him

Could he be better than what a 1st round pick would bring, after being developed?

If he is, well then OK.............a 1st and a 3rd and 5 years@$5,000,000 is not a bad  thing

"IF" he is that 3/4, then a 2nd and 5years @ $4,300,000.....splitting hairs I know

 

But in either case, he would be a young cap controlled player, who would grow with the core.........

 

Is he good enough to go after, or is it too risky? That is my question.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Is it that the offers are always underwhelming and easily matched?

Just because they are easily matched, doesn't mean they are necessarily underwhelming.  I think the only way a team doesn't match is if the offer is way over market value and how does that help the team making the offer?

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34 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Now, I realize that Offer sheets are rare and seldom work in the NHL

 

But, I am wondering why? 

Is it that GM's are afraid to upset other GM's

Is it that the offers are always underwhelming and easily matched?

Is it about retaliation?

Is it something else that I can not see?

 

To me, this under minds the basis spirit of the CBA, and stinks of back room collusion, amongst all NHL gm's and owners.

To me, any fear of retaliation could be remedied by simply signing your players before they get to free agency

This is simply a question of a GM's future planning or lack of. 

Benning, has put himself in a hole, and it will cost him to get out, but IMO, Benning's problem, is the fact he said he was ready to compete

and that he had enough cap and horses to proceed...............IMO, he has set the franchise back several years

This is also true in Tampa Bay, but they have a Stanley Cup to show for it.

IMO, GM's should be held responsible for not trying to do the best job possible.....................which includes offer sheets.

Benning has made mistakes over the past, but his drafting has softened the opinion on him.

Benning has put himself in a pickle jar, and has made himself a target..............JIm must make some tough decisions.

The obvious offer sheets is a part of his get out of jail free card, and a successful one would soften what has been a tough Free agency campaign.

 

Now, with Cernak, we talk about offer sheeting him at 4.3 Million per, which would cost a second round pick

a second round pick that would normally take 3/4 years to develop, if it ever did, that is if there was actually a candidate suitable at that time.

So, now my question is.........How good is Cernak?........Could he actually be a #2, or is his ceiling that of a 3/4?

 

"IF" he is a showing as a 2/3 caliber Dman..............go out and get him

Could he be better than what a 1st round pick would bring, after being developed?

If he is, well then OK.............a 1st and a 3rd and 5 years@$5,000,000 is not a bad  thing

"IF" he is that 3/4, then a 2nd and 5years @ $4,300,000.....splitting hairs I know

 

But in either case, he would be a young cap controlled player, who would grow with the core.........

 

Is he good enough to go after, or is it too risky? That is my question.

 

 

Here are the offer sheets of the past 20+ years. All but one was matched and I think that pretty much tells you why GM's don't spend a lot of time on this.

ttias Ohlund 1997 [22] 5 years, $10 million & $7.5 million signing bonus Vancouver Canucks Toronto Maple Leafs Matched -
Sergei Fedorov Feb 1998 [4] 6 year, $38 million Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes Matched In an attempt to dissuade the Red Wings from matching, Carolina's contract was unusually front-loaded, and included a $12 million bonus if Fedorov reached the conference final, a far greater likelihood with the perennially contending Red Wings than the struggling Hurricanes. Detroit did match the offer sheet and Fedorov was paid $28 million for the season.
Ryan Kesler Sept 12, 2006 [4] 1 year, $1.9 million Vancouver Canucks Philadelphia Flyers Matched -
Thomas Vanek July 6, 2007 [23] 7 years, $50 million Buffalo Sabres Edmonton Oilers Matched -
Dustin Penner July 26, 2007 5 years, $21.5 million Anaheim Ducks Edmonton Oilers Accepted 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008
David Backes July 1, 2008 3 years, $7.5 million St. Louis Blues Vancouver Canucks Matched -
Steve Bernier July 8, 2008 1 year, $2.5 million Vancouver Canucks St. Louis Blues Matched -
Niklas Hjalmarsson July 9, 2010 4 years, $14 million Chicago Blackhawks San Jose Sharks Matched -
Shea Weber July 18, 2012[24] 14 years, $110 million Nashville Predators Philadelphia Flyers Matched[25] -
Ryan O'Reilly February 28, 2013[26] 2 years, $10 million Colorado Avalanche Calgary Flames Matched -
Sebastian Aho July 1, 2019[27] 5 years, $42 million Carolina Hurricanes Montreal Canadiens Matched[28] -
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18 minutes ago, Nuck1991 said:

we are not getting cernak

We just lost 5 guys to free agency clearly the plan is to clear cap for next year. Bad contracts are coming back to haunt us. I expect us to be a non playoff team for upcoming 2 seasons 

This is hilarious considering most fans didn't think we were a playoff team to begin with. Now we have 'experts' like yourself telling us how the team will do this year and the next one?

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19 minutes ago, Rick Blight said:

Here are the offer sheets of the past 20+ years. All but one was matched and I think that pretty much tells you why GM's don't spend a lot of time on this.

ttias Ohlund 1997 [22] 5 years, $10 million & $7.5 million signing bonus Vancouver Canucks Toronto Maple Leafs Matched -
Sergei Fedorov Feb 1998 [4] 6 year, $38 million Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes Matched In an attempt to dissuade the Red Wings from matching, Carolina's contract was unusually front-loaded, and included a $12 million bonus if Fedorov reached the conference final, a far greater likelihood with the perennially contending Red Wings than the struggling Hurricanes. Detroit did match the offer sheet and Fedorov was paid $28 million for the season.
Ryan Kesler Sept 12, 2006 [4] 1 year, $1.9 million Vancouver Canucks Philadelphia Flyers Matched -
Thomas Vanek July 6, 2007 [23] 7 years, $50 million Buffalo Sabres Edmonton Oilers Matched -
Dustin Penner July 26, 2007 5 years, $21.5 million Anaheim Ducks Edmonton Oilers Accepted 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008
David Backes July 1, 2008 3 years, $7.5 million St. Louis Blues Vancouver Canucks Matched -
Steve Bernier July 8, 2008 1 year, $2.5 million Vancouver Canucks St. Louis Blues Matched -
Niklas Hjalmarsson July 9, 2010 4 years, $14 million Chicago Blackhawks San Jose Sharks Matched -
Shea Weber July 18, 2012[24] 14 years, $110 million Nashville Predators Philadelphia Flyers Matched[25] -
Ryan O'Reilly February 28, 2013[26] 2 years, $10 million Colorado Avalanche Calgary Flames Matched -
Sebastian Aho July 1, 2019[27] 5 years, $42 million Carolina Hurricanes Montreal Canadiens Matched[28] -

I think this chart generally tells us which teams were "desperate" to improve the team. This 'desperation', I think, usually ends up biting teams in the rear because they will get really bad offers in the hopes that they'll be desperate enough to do them. This is on top of the bad rep of using offer sheets.

 

Look at the various teams on this list.

 

Carolina Hurricanes - they were bad for a very long time until 2004 - Stanley Cup. That's 6 more years of waiting.

 

Phildelphia Flyers 2006 - Record was 22-48

 

Edmonton Oilers - TWO offer sheets in the same year. Dustin Penner contract ended up being really bad for Edmonton, and they gave up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for 2008. DOUBLE whammy. They didn't get better in the present, nor did they get better for the next... Oh I don't know, ten more years?

 

San Jose Sharks 2010. They were a pretty good team at this time.  The only exception to this.

 

Flyers again 2012 - Record was 23-22. Marginal team.

 

Calgary Flames 2013 - Record was 35-40-7

 

Montreal Canadiens 2019 - another non-playoff team.

 

Conclusion: Good teams don't need to poach players from other teams. If you so badly needed ONE player, but you're willing to mortgage your future for it, it probably wasn't that good/close to begin with.

Edited by Dazzle
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58 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

This is hilarious considering most fans didn't think we were a playoff team to begin with. Now we have 'experts' like yourself telling us how the team will do this year and the next one?

thanks,

now go cry yourself to bed 

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1 hour ago, Tystick said:

If we offer Cernak 4.2mil/yr, Tampa won't match it because they're more focused on Sergachev and they will get a 2nd round pick back (which they're missing in 2021).

In my mind, that's a no brainer.

Its a bit of an overpayment given his production to date, but he's also exactly the kind of player we need on the right side. 

 

I'd love to see Jim put in an offer sheet at something around 3.5 here. Tampa is really in trouble on their cap and can't move any of their older guys on NTCs. 

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5 hours ago, Robert Long said:

Its a bit of an overpayment given his production to date, but he's also exactly the kind of player we need on the right side. 

 

I'd love to see Jim put in an offer sheet at something around 3.5 here. Tampa is really in trouble on their cap and can't move any of their older guys on NTCs. 

Question is Robert

 

What is his ceiling? That is what I want to know.

 

At his prime how good is he going to be?

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7 hours ago, Rick Blight said:

Here are the offer sheets of the past 20+ years. All but one was matched and I think that pretty much tells you why GM's don't spend a lot of time on this.

ttias Ohlund 1997 [22] 5 years, $10 million & $7.5 million signing bonus Vancouver Canucks Toronto Maple Leafs Matched -
Sergei Fedorov Feb 1998 [4] 6 year, $38 million Detroit Red Wings Carolina Hurricanes Matched In an attempt to dissuade the Red Wings from matching, Carolina's contract was unusually front-loaded, and included a $12 million bonus if Fedorov reached the conference final, a far greater likelihood with the perennially contending Red Wings than the struggling Hurricanes. Detroit did match the offer sheet and Fedorov was paid $28 million for the season.
Ryan Kesler Sept 12, 2006 [4] 1 year, $1.9 million Vancouver Canucks Philadelphia Flyers Matched -
Thomas Vanek July 6, 2007 [23] 7 years, $50 million Buffalo Sabres Edmonton Oilers Matched -
Dustin Penner July 26, 2007 5 years, $21.5 million Anaheim Ducks Edmonton Oilers Accepted 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008
David Backes July 1, 2008 3 years, $7.5 million St. Louis Blues Vancouver Canucks Matched -
Steve Bernier July 8, 2008 1 year, $2.5 million Vancouver Canucks St. Louis Blues Matched -
Niklas Hjalmarsson July 9, 2010 4 years, $14 million Chicago Blackhawks San Jose Sharks Matched -
Shea Weber July 18, 2012[24] 14 years, $110 million Nashville Predators Philadelphia Flyers Matched[25] -
Ryan O'Reilly February 28, 2013[26] 2 years, $10 million Colorado Avalanche Calgary Flames Matched -
Sebastian Aho July 1, 2019[27] 5 years, $42 million Carolina Hurricanes Montreal Canadiens Matched[28] -

So, one story is most get matched by their parent club........ok, I accept your evidence. solid point

 

But here is the other point that it shows.................that is, none of the teams that put out the offer sheet were punished by the other GM's

 

and none were raided, as many posters say it will happen.

 

So whether they put one out or not, it is just business as usual

 

 

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4 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

So, one story is most get matched by their parent club........ok, I accept your evidence. solid point

 

But here is the other point that it shows.................that is, none of the teams that put out the offer sheet were punished by the other GM's

 

and none were raided, as many posters say it will happen.

 

So whether they put one out or not, it is just business as usual

 

 

You are correct. The fear of retribution is overblown IMO and most GM's aren't around long enough to have a McCoy and Hadfield feud.The only reason we don't see it more often is that it very seldom works and is not worth the effort put forth to make the offer.

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12 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Question is Robert

 

What is his ceiling? That is what I want to know.

 

At his prime how good is he going to be?

ideally a bigger more physical version of Tanev? The Tampa talking heads seem to think he's a great third pairing now with 4/5 potential. You're overpaying a bit for size and him being on the right side too. 

 

https://www.rawcharge.com/2019/3/20/18273572/the-emergence-of-erik-cernak-so-much-for-that-hole-on-tampa-bay-lightning-blue-line-nhl-analytics

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As of now, Tampa has 3 mill in space and 18 players signed.  They have Cernak, Sergachev, Cirelli to sign and add 2 more players. 

 

Let's say they sign the RFA's to 2 year bridge deals, I think you are adding 10-14 million to your cap.

Cirelli- 23 YO centre with a 45 point pace

Cernak- giant 23 YO defensive RHD, solid numbers but massive potential

Sergachev- Giant 22 YO LHD with 40 point pace, elite potential.

 

Cal Foote looks like he can step in and take Cernaks role on an ELC.  TB has very good centre depth, so Cirelli could also be out.  Sergachev is their future, he stays, but is probably looking at 6 mill on a bridge deal at a minimum.

 

In order of guys they can move: Johnson (4 yr 5 mil), Kilhorn (3 yr 4.5 mil), Palat (2 yr 5.3).

 

I'd offer Benn, Joulevi, 2022 1st for TJ and Cernak.  

 

Saves TB enough to sign Cirelli, Joulevi, Benn and gives them a 1st.  We get a guy who was good for 20-30 goals  playing 16 mins a night, who I think would fit well in our top 6, and a stud D.

 

By moving Benn, we have 4 mill in cap space, 6.5 if you send LE and Baer to Utica.  We adding 5 for TJ, 3.5 for Cernak and say 1.5 for Gaudette.  We would need to mvoe Virtanen for futures to then be 3.5 over.  This works if JB knows Ferland is going LTIR.

 

Lineup:

Miller-EP-TJ

Pearson-Horvat-Boeser

Rousel-Gaudette-MacEwan

Motte-Beagle-Sutter

 

Hughes-Cernak

Schmidt-Myers

Edler- Chatfield/Rafferty

 

Demko

Holtby

 

Thanks for reading my dream scenario.

 

 

 

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On 10/12/2020 at 11:22 AM, janisahockeynut said:

Now, I realize that Offer sheets are rare and seldom work in the NHL

 

But, I am wondering why? 

Is it that GM's are afraid to upset other GM's

Is it that the offers are always underwhelming and easily matched?

Is it about retaliation?

Is it something else that I can not see?

 

To me, this under minds the basis spirit of the CBA, and stinks of back room collusion, amongst all NHL gm's and owners.

To me, any fear of retaliation could be remedied by simply signing your players before they get to free agency

This is simply a question of a GM's future planning or lack of. 

Benning, has put himself in a hole, and it will cost him to get out, but IMO, Benning's problem, is the fact he said he was ready to compete

and that he had enough cap and horses to proceed...............IMO, he has set the franchise back several years

This is also true in Tampa Bay, but they have a Stanley Cup to show for it.

IMO, GM's should be held responsible for not trying to do the best job possible.....................which includes offer sheets.

Benning has made mistakes over the past, but his drafting has softened the opinion on him.

Benning has put himself in a pickle jar, and has made himself a target..............JIm must make some tough decisions.

The obvious offer sheets is a part of his get out of jail free card, and a successful one would soften what has been a tough Free agency campaign.

 

Now, with Cernak, we talk about offer sheeting him at 4.3 Million per, which would cost a second round pick

a second round pick that would normally take 3/4 years to develop, if it ever did, that is if there was actually a candidate suitable at that time.

So, now my question is.........How good is Cernak?........Could he actually be a #2, or is his ceiling that of a 3/4?

 

"IF" he is a showing as a 2/3 caliber Dman..............go out and get him

Could he be better than what a 1st round pick would bring, after being developed?

If he is, well then OK.............a 1st and a 3rd and 5 years@$5,000,000 is not a bad  thing

"IF" he is that 3/4, then a 2nd and 5years @ $4,300,000.....splitting hairs I know

 

But in either case, he would be a young cap controlled player, who would grow with the core.........

 

Is he good enough to go after, or is it too risky? That is my question.

 

 

Do you remember this? Cuz I do. Imagine if we were subjected to offer sheets next year. Just don’t even consider it...

B016B703-B8B0-4E27-ADB3-0A7882EC4217.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, poet said:

Do you remember this? Cuz I do. Imagine if we were subjected to offer sheets next year. Just don’t even consider it...

B016B703-B8B0-4E27-ADB3-0A7882EC4217.jpeg

there's no such thing as goodwill between GMs over offer sheets. If it makes sense we should do it, because they will. 

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1 hour ago, poet said:

Do you remember this? Cuz I do. Imagine if we were subjected to offer sheets next year. Just don’t even consider it...

B016B703-B8B0-4E27-ADB3-0A7882EC4217.jpeg

I do remember Steve Bernier and if memory recalls. If I remember correcctly, the Canucks with drew there offer sheet and made a trade with Buffalo for Bernier......no retaliation was ever done.......again this is a business 

 

 

CBC Sports · Posted: Jul 04, 2008 2:46 PM ET | Last Updated: July 4, 2008

The Vancouver Canucks added a touch of youth to their roster on Friday by acquiring right-winger Steve Bernier in a trade with the Buffalo Sabres.

In exchange, the Sabres receive a third-round pick in the 2009 NHL draft and a second-round pick in 2010.

 

Bernier, a 23-year-old native of Quebec City, split last season between Buffalo and the San Jose Sharks, scoring 16 goals and tallying 32 points in 76 games.

 

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