2021 NHL Entry Draft

[HighOnHockey]

15 minutes ago, theo5789 said:

I suspect though that if you make a similar list for any position, you'll get a similar breakdown. The only advantage for forwards or defense is there is more room for them to crack a roster thus a higher chance to make the NHL in different roles even if they were drafted for those roles.

a. I don't think your point about having less chance to win a job is a very strong one. There's a given number of spots available in the NHL at every position. If you can't make the NHL you can't make the NHL.

 

b. According to my own research - a project based on drafts from 1990-2006, where a successful NHL player is roughly defined as 400 NHL games or 150 for goalies, top 20 picks make the NHL 63.75% of the time - 75% for the top ten, and 52.5% for 11-20.

 

Based on that list I compiled, goalies "hit" 47.6% (that's including the journeymen) in the top 20 - 45.45% in the top ten and 50% from 11-20. So yeah, I guess picking a goalie from 11-20 can make sense. Not top ten.

Edited June 14, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[hammertime]

1 minute ago, nzan said:

How about moving our leading scorer to 1c?

And Petey to 2c where he could assumedly find easier minutes with Bo and Pearson playing hard 3c offensive/match-up minutes

Just not sure who all the wingers are on both those top 2 lines

How about we just target a guy like Ivan Barbashev or another legit 3C and just stop shoehorning guys into spots they don't fit.

 

 

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

5 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

a. I don't think your point about having less chance to win a job is a very strong one. There's a given number of spots available in the NHL at every position. If you can't make the NHL you can't make the NHL.

 

b. According to my own research - a project based on drafts from 1990-2006, where an NHL player is roughly defined as 400 NHL games or 150 for goalies, top 20 picks make the NHL 63.75% of the time. 75% for the top ten, and 52.5% for 11-20.

 

Based on that list I compiled, goalies "hit" 47.6% (that's including the journeymen). 45.45% in the top ten and 50% from 11-20. So yeah, I guess picking a goalie from 11-20 can make sense. Not top ten.

Do you think there's a team in the top-10 that will take a "chance" on him, whether it's Detroit, SJ, LA, Vancouver, etc.?

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

God, imagine if a team like Buffalo or Seattle took him? That would send shockwaves across the entire league. 

[theo5789]

10 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

a. I don't think your point about having less chance to win a job is a very strong one. There's a given number of spots available in the NHL at every position. If you can't make the NHL you can't make the NHL.

 

b. According to my own research - a project based on drafts from 1990-2006, where a successful NHL player is roughly defined as 400 NHL games or 150 for goalies, top 20 picks make the NHL 63.75% of the time - 75% for the top ten, and 52.5% for 11-20.

 

Based on that list I compiled, goalies "hit" 47.6% (that's including the journeymen) in the top 20 - 45.45% in the top ten and 50% from 11-20. So yeah, I guess picking a goalie from 11-20 can make sense. Not top ten.

But this is kind of my point. A goalie has two spots they can earn. Starter or back-up (plus whatever mish-mash in between, but there are two spots). A forward or dman could be drafted in the top 10, but carve out a career as a 4th liner or 3rd pair dman and hit the 400 game mark and is considered a "success" despite their draft spot asking for more.

 

Now I agree that if you're not good enough to make the NHL, then it doesn't matter. But it's much harsher for a goaltender to make the team or not, whereas forwards and dmen have more leeway. So it may be safer to pick a forward or dman as the likelihood or them being able to carve out a career could be higher. However, if Wallstedt lives up to his potential and is a franchise goaltender and becomes one of the "good picks", he could also have way more value to a team than a top 4 dman or middle 6 forwards. As much risk as there is to drafting a goalie, there is still risk drafting at any position. If the hype is real that Wallstedt is one of the best goaltending prospects in the last decade, it may be worth the risk.

 

For the record, I'm not advocating that we draft Wallstedt, but he could very well be the BPA at #9 and I wouldn't be upset picking him if Benning has him on his list of 9 guys that he likes. Hopefully he's taken before we pick so this becomes moot, but if he were available and we pass on him and he becomes a franchise #1 goaltender down the road (and hopefully not to a rival), then it doesn't look good unless we hit a home run with our pick as well.

[Bertuzzipunch]

How would you describe your game? 

"I'm a power forward, who takes a lot of pride in his defensive zone and two-way ability. Obviously, I love to score goals too." 

https://www.tsn.ca/mason-mctavish-doesn-t-want-to-change-much-ahead-of-nhl-draft-1.1653589

 

 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

How would you describe your game? 

"I'm a power forward, who takes a lot of pride in his defensive zone and two-way ability. Obviously, I love to score goals too." 

https://www.tsn.ca/mason-mctavish-doesn-t-want-to-change-much-ahead-of-nhl-draft-1.1653589

 

 

The more I read about McTavish, the more I think he's gone well before we pick at 9.  

[hammertime]

8 minutes ago, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

God, imagine if a team like Buffalo or Seattle took him? That would send shockwaves across the entire league. 

I could see Seattle possibly taking him. But I doubt it. Most likely LA takes Wally.

 

I could see Stevie Y grabbing Eklund/Hughes and gambling that he can get Cossa at #23

[Nucker 67]

It's all good, some of these players are hyped right before the Draft because of a few good games in the U18. McTavish, for example, wasn't near the Top 10 before, but now he could go Top 3 lol

 

And reverse - Lucius and Lambos were in the Top 10 at one point too, but dropped down. They're still very good players! Edvinsson was also in the Top 5 conversation, but a mediocre U18 and he's dropped out of the Top 10. 

 

Do we rely a little too heavily on the U18 and World Championship?  (rather than the entire body of work)

 

 

 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

It's all good, some of these players are hyped right before the Draft because of a few good games in the U18. McTavish, for example, wasn't near the Top 10 before, but now he could go Top 3 lol

 

And reverse - Lucius and Lambos were in the Top 10 at one point too, but dropped down. They're still very good players! Edvinsson was also in the Top 5 conversation, but a mediocre U18 and he's dropped out of the Top 10. 

 

Do we rely a little too heavily on the U18 and World Championship?  (rather than the entire body of work)

 

 

 

Benning was at the U18's.  He might take a guy (or two) off our list, or drop them down, because of what he saw there.  

[204CanucksFan]

2 hours ago, hammertime said:

Are they??? Is he???? 

 

Ill use 2020 stats because EP missed more games than he played this year. 

 

JT Miller took 718 faceoffs winning 59.2% 

EP took a whopping 141 faceoffs winning 41.8% 

 

IMO EP is far from ready to handle 1C duty without a dedicated C riding shotty with him.  

Ok but let's not ignore this season simply because of his injury. As you point out in 2020 he took 141 faceoffs in 68 games. In 2021 he took 140 faceoffs in just 26 games. And in those same 26 games JT Miller only took 130 faceoffs. 

 

Clearly Pettersson does need some more work on his faceoffs as a center but it's also pretty clear that this season was the beginning of his transition to more of a full time center role. Not to mention that even though in 2020 Miller took the vast majority of the faceoffs for Pettersson, it was still Pettersson who played the center position once the play had started. He was the forward down low in the defensive zone and he was often the first forward back, doggedly backchecking the opposition and creating turnovers.

 

Miller is a very good winger and is great at faceoffs, which makes him a great addition and key member of the Lotto Line but he is not very well suited to the defensive responsibilities of a center, he is often a fairly lazy backchecker and doesn't appear to be able to read the play in the d zone as well as Petey. Which is why I don't want him as a 3C, he belongs on a line with Petey and Boes and we can bring in someone else to fill that 3C position. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

If mctavish and wallstead are both picked before our pick i can truly see clarke being there for us to draft.

Edited June 14, 2021 by Bertuzzipunch

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Ok but let's not ignore this season simply because of his injury. As you point out in 2020 he took 141 faceoffs in 68 games. In 2021 he took 140 faceoffs in just 26 games. And in those same 26 games JT Miller only took 130 faceoffs. 

 

Clearly Pettersson does need some more work on his faceoffs as a center but it's also pretty clear that this season was the beginning of his transition to more of a full time center role. Not to mention that even though in 2020 Miller took the vast majority of the faceoffs for Pettersson, it was still Pettersson who played the center position once the play had started. He was the forward down low in the defensive zone and he was often the first forward back, doggedly backchecking the opposition and creating turnovers.

 

Miller is a very good winger and is great at faceoffs, which makes him a great addition and key member of the Lotto Line but he is not very well suited to the defensive responsibilities of a center, he is often a fairly lazy backchecker and doesn't appear to be able to read the play in the d zone as well as Petey. Which is why I don't want him as a 3C, he belongs on a line with Petey and Boes and we can bring in someone else to fill that 3C position. 

Petey had an injured wrist too, so taking faceoffs might have been to offer extra protection for that too.  

[204CanucksFan]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Petey had an injured wrist too, so taking faceoffs might have been to offer extra protection for that too.  

That's possible, but I can't remember exactly what he said but I think Pettersson said that he injured his wrist early in the first game against Winnipeg in the back to back at the start of March and in those two games Petey only took 1 total faceoff and Miller took 15 so I'm assuming that if it was injured in that first game it affected his ability to take faceoffs as well as shoot.

[204CanucksFan]

6 minutes ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

If mctavish and wallstead are both picked before our pick i can truly see clarke being there for us to draft.

That could very well be the absolute best possible outcome for us. I really hope we end up with either Clarke or McTavish.

[Bertuzzipunch]

Just now, 204CanucksFan said:

That could very well be the absolute best possible outcome for us. I really hope we end up with either Clarke or McTavish.

Same with me. Literally the 2 i want most

[Marv-the-wet-bandit]

20 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

It's all good, some of these players are hyped right before the Draft because of a few good games in the U18. McTavish, for example, wasn't near the Top 10 before, but now he could go Top 3 lol

 

And reverse - Lucius and Lambos were in the Top 10 at one point too, but dropped down. They're still very good players! Edvinsson was also in the Top 5 conversation, but a mediocre U18 and he's dropped out of the Top 10. 

 

Do we rely a little too heavily on the U18 and World Championship?  (rather than the entire body of work)

 

 

 

I think the U18s and World Championship make up a better evaluation because they’re playing against higher caliber competition for the most part. It’s a much smaller sample size but you get a gauge on how they may play in big games against big competition 

[73 Percent]

1 hour ago, nzan said:

How about moving our leading scorer to 1c?

And Petey to 2c where he could assumedly find easier minutes with Bo and Pearson playing hard 3c offensive/match-up minutes

Just not sure who all the wingers are on both those top 2 lines

Petey miller boeser

Pearson horvat hoglander

Podkolzin random disappointing UFA virtanen (for now)

Motte beagle highmore

 

 

That's my take on it anyway 

Edited June 14, 2021 by 73 Percent

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Marv-the-wet-bandit said:

I think the U18s and World Championship make up a better evaluation because they’re playing against higher caliber competition for the most part. It’s a much smaller sample size but you get a gauge on how they may play in big games against big competition 

So we want either Bedard, Michkov, or Wright?  

[Marv-the-wet-bandit]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

So we want either Bedard, Michkov, or Wright?  

I think every team is going to want those players haha. Bedard and Michkov in the same draft year is almost not fair, pick second and get a generational type talent