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2021 NHL Entry Draft


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9 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Fair enough, but we should give NHL scouts credit, I don't think they're changing their opinions with the weather. But on the other hand, I suppose maybe if area scouts have been seeing one thing for a long time, and only later do chief scouts get around to seeing the players, that could effect team's lists according to what seems like recency bias to us fans.

 

But personally, Hughes is fairly entrenched in my top 3, so I would be very surprised if he falls anywhere close to ten, and I've have had Sillinger in my top six or seven for over a year, so nothing he's doing now is changing anything - I ranked him 4th in my initial 2021 ranking, after the 2019 U17s. Guenther, on the other hand is definitely moving up my list, but NHL scouts already had him 3rd pre-season, according to Bob McKenzie's poll.

I dont think he is top three man. I think we are giving too much credit to the family name and that detroit is in the top five needing a partner. He is a solid top ten talent who has a good game surprisingly at closing the gaps, but he isnt as good as edvinsson, power, or clarke. I can also teams taking Guenther over him too. 

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3 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Understandable that you think that, but that ain't me. I could care less about storylines. I'm a hockey fan first before I'm a Canucks fan, and I'm obsessed with scouting and making accurate predictions about prospects. I could be wrong about Hughes, but I promise you that's not the reason why; my assessment is based on what I see.

 

As far as the players you mentioned as better than him, I absolutely agree about Clarke, who I have ranked number one. I currently have Hughes one spot ahead of Power, who I have ranked 4th. And I've been very forthright about my opinion on Edvinsson, who I don't believe should be a top ten pick.

 

I look for a balance between safety and upside. With Hughes, I see the offensive skills to make him a very safe bet to be a top four offensive defenseman, but I also see the potential for an outstanding defensive player. He has the size, and he's not the same type of run-and-gun player as Quinn - he's able to create offense without sacrificing much defensively. His hockey IQ is very high, and he's excellent at staying above and supporting the puck. Sure, he can occasionally be pretty risky, but it almost always works out at this level, so why shouldn't he? He'll just have to continue to learn how to pick his spots as he progresses to higher levels, which I believe he has the IQ to do.

The thing i have against hughes is that he lacks the offensive dynamic of his bro, makar, or heiskanen and at a top five or even top three selection. If you pick him that high then you are passing on some serious forward talent for a slavin type player. Which isnt bad but not worth the draft capital

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44 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

Understandable that you think that, but that ain't me. I could care less about storylines. I'm a hockey fan first before I'm a Canucks fan, and I'm obsessed with scouting and making accurate predictions about prospects. I could be wrong about Hughes, but I promise you that's not the reason why; my assessment is based on what I see.

 

As far as the players you mentioned as better than him, I absolutely agree about Clarke, who I have ranked number one. I currently have Hughes one spot ahead of Power, who I have ranked 4th. And I've been very forthright about my opinion on Edvinsson, who I don't believe should be a top ten pick.

 

I look for a balance between safety and upside. With Hughes, I see the offensive skills to make him a very safe bet to be a top four offensive defenseman, but I also see the potential for an outstanding defensive player. He has the size, and he's not the same type of run-and-gun player as Quinn - he's able to create offense without sacrificing much defensively. His hockey IQ is very high, and he's excellent at staying above and supporting the puck. Sure, he can occasionally be pretty risky, but it almost always works out at this level, so why shouldn't he? He'll just have to continue to learn how to pick his spots as he progresses to higher levels, which I believe he has the IQ to do.

Good post man. 

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6 hours ago, Isam said:

The thing i have against hughes is that he lacks the offensive dynamic of his bro, makar, or heiskanen and at a top five or even top three selection. If you pick him that high then you are passing on some serious forward talent for a slavin type player. Which isnt bad but not worth the draft capital

I think there are two separate points we're in disagreement about here - Hughes' upside on one hand, and the talent of the rest of the top ten on the other.

 

On the first point, Hughes himself, I am in partial agreement. He's not as purely skilled as Quinn, Makar, or Heiskanen, but he is still very highly skilled, far more offensive upside than Slavin. His skating ability is at least in the same ballpark as those other three, albeit probably not quite on the same level. I do expect he'll be a better defensive defenseman than Quinn or Makar, at least. The thing is, you don't have to be Mr. Dangles like those guys to produce at the NHL level. Maybe it'll come back to haunt me, but I keep making the comparison with Luke Hughes to Duncan Keith and Roman Josi, because they illustrate something important. They're nowhere near as dynamic offensively as this new generation of young D coming in, but they show that you need three things to produce at a high level in the NHL without particularly elite stick skills. 1. both are elite skaters, 2. both have elite hockey IQ, 3. both are elite defensively, which on its face doesn't seem to contribute to offensive output, but it means they play 26 minutes a night, generally behind their teams' best forwards, which when combined with points (1) and (2), tends to lead to high end offensive production. I see some of the same attributes from Hughes. Not saying I think it's likely he'll reach that level, but I think there's a realistic chance, and even if not, the his floor is high enough to make it worth the risk.

 

On the second point, if this was last year's draft, Luke Hughes would probably be in the mix with Drysdale and Sanderson for top defenseman, but would likely fall just behind them, putting him around 7th overall, in my opinion. I do believe this is a fairly weak draft class. But that said, I was among those who thought 2011 was going to be a weak class, and it turned out producing a handful of really good players in the top ten, so I'm not going to make the same mistake again. But I do see a lot of similarities between that draft and this one. There's no clear cut bluechip superstars at the top, and there's a ton of uncertainty throughout the ten. That doesn't mean there won't be stars found in the top ten, but it's wide open as to who those are. On the one hand you have guys like Kent Johnson and Fabian Lysell with enormous upside, but with serious risk factors, and on the other, you have guys like Beniers and Sillinger, with extremely high floors, but question marks about upside. Guenther and Eklund seem to fall somewhere in between. Point is, there are almost certainly gonna be some busts in the top ten this year, so in a better draft class, maybe Hughes falls closer to ten, but in this year's class, I think there are enough question marks around most of the other players to almost guarantee Hughes a spot in the top five.

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Would really love to see the Canucks get Clarke but it's not happening unless they win the lottery and move up to 1st or 2nd (given the new rules of only drawing for 1st or 2nd). Right now they are picking 9th or 10th. I'd say maybe Lambos or Raty. Otherwise drop back a few, gain another late pick and go for Morrow.

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15 hours ago, 204CanucksFan said:

Would really love to see the Canucks get Clarke but it's not happening unless they win the lottery and move up to 1st or 2nd (given the new rules of only drawing for 1st or 2nd). Right now they are picking 9th or 10th. I'd say maybe Lambos or Raty. Otherwise drop back a few, gain another late pick and go for Morrow.

If we are picking in the top 10 we should keep pick, after the top then there is a bit of a drop off though. I would be ok trading down from 11th on, if they are not high on someone like Sillinger, Lambos, or Lysell.  

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11 hours ago, Bure_Pavel said:

If we are picking in the top 10 we should keep pick, after the top then there is a bit of a drop off though. I would be ok trading down from 11th on, if they are not high on someone like Sillinger, Lambos, or Lysell.  

I don't quite agree. I think at that point it's a bit more wide open it's important to get the guy you want instead of gamble that he's lower on other teams lists. I would have no issue at all with JB waking up to the podium and calling a Svechkov or Pastujov up at 11 regardless of them being ranked in the 20's. You take the guy you want or walk away empty handed.  

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On 4/1/2021 at 10:20 PM, hammertime said:

I don't quite agree. I think at that point it's a bit more wide open it's important to get the guy you want instead of gamble that he's lower on other teams lists. I would have no issue at all with JB waking up to the podium and calling a Svechkov or Pastujov up at 11 regardless of them being ranked in the 20's. You take the guy you want or walk away empty handed.  

One thing to consider too is that most years, scouts have more chance to interact amongst themselves. I'm sure they're not trying to reveal their teams' lists to their opponents, but they talk amongst themselves, they can see what teams are consistently sending scouts to view which players, and when head scouts start showing up. I know so many fans worship the media scouting service lists, and throw a bitch fit when teams go "off the board", but really we have no &^@#ing clue what is "the board". The NHL scouts know, and they know other teams' scouts know much of the same as they know. If a team has reason to believe no other team values a given player as highly as they do, then it would make sense to gamble and trade back to get that player later, but most of the time when a team picks a player way ahead of where they are "expected" to go, that team has intel that other teams will pick the player first if they trade back. Perhaps that intel is specific to a certain team, or perhaps it is that every NHL scout values that player more highly than the media scouts do, and so it's just common knowledge among NHL scouts, but fans aren't privy to it.

 

It could very well be that most NHL team's lists have Pastujov or Svechkov in the top 15, and so it really won't be at all off the board when they're picked, but as fans we only have access to second rate scouting reports - the best scouts work for NHL teams - so we think a pick is "off the board" because the media scouting services undervalued that player.

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a fun draft ahead for sure. I have quite a few names I would love for Vancouver to get in this years draft! any player we get is just gravy... its nice having a management team who can actually draft for once. that is really refreshing lol

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There has been talk of delaying the '21 draft to '22. Cannot see that happening on a number of levels. Teams have to draft by year and the orgs who have put the most $ into their scouting should benefit. That said there will be mistakes. 

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10 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

There has been talk of delaying the '21 draft to '22. Cannot see that happening on a number of levels. Teams have to draft by year and the orgs who have put the most $ into their scouting should benefit. That said there will be mistakes. 

The league has already said they are going ahead with the draft as scheduled for July 23rd and 24th. They discussed moving it earlier in the season at the GM meetings as a few GMs wanted it pushed back but the league decided to keep it as planned and just tweak the lottery rules.

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On 4/3/2021 at 5:52 PM, Herberts Vasiljevs said:

Confirmed: the Canucks will be picking in the top-10.

we can fall to 4-5th spot maybe even 3rd worst team   could fall to 27th if flames kings get one point  we are on the edge of cliff sabres and ducks are so bad we won't fall that far

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Still don't see why Lysell is consensus ranked so high. To me he's a late 1st early second. I don't have anything particularilly against the kid hes a great prospect but realistically he's 2-3 years away top 6 or bust player I had Nils in my top 20 was poking my jets fan buddy to draft him at 22 was shouting at my tv when he fell to us in the second. I see Lysell as a cut below Nils in his draft year. 

 

Tankathelon has us drafting Lysell at 10 for whatever thats worth I put no stok in it of course just a bit of amusement in these dark times but he seems to be consistently ranked way higher than what I have seen from his play.

 

@HighOnHockey I know you're also following this draft class closely do you have him in your top 15? 

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35 minutes ago, hammertime said:

Still don't see why Lysell is consensus ranked so high. To me he's a late 1st early second. I don't have anything particularilly against the kid hes a great prospect but realistically he's 2-3 years away top 6 or bust player I had Nils in my top 20 was poking my jets fan buddy to draft him at 22 was shouting at my tv when he fell to us in the second. I see Lysell as a cut below Nils in his draft year. 

 

Tankathelon has us drafting Lysell at 10 for whatever thats worth I put no stok in it of course just a bit of amusement in these dark times but he seems to be consistently ranked way higher than what I have seen from his play.

 

@HighOnHockey I know you're also following this draft class closely do you have him in your top 15? 

Yeah, I consider him a top 15 prospect for this draft. As I've said, on pure talent alone, he's in the top three or so in the class. I do agree with some of what you say - I don't think he should go as high as many of the rankings seem to have him. I have him somewhere around 12-14 right now. I also agree he's top six or bust, but the upside is high enough to tip the scales a bit. He does seem to be a decently responsible pro player - after watching him in junior I had concerns with him trying to do too much with the puck, but when I saw him play pro this year, he's clearly making a concerted effort to try to play the right way. It's a steep learning curve for him though, but if he can figure it out he could be a legit offensive weapon.

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