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2021 NHL Entry Draft


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12 minutes ago, Marv-the-wet-bandit said:

I agree. Being half a year older then guys in your draft class doesn’t mean he’ll stop developing before them either haha. Markstrom steadily improved throughout his mid to late 20s and had his best season at 30. Not all players take the same path so his argument was very weak and just not correct 

Haven't maintained this. Never.

I am quite surprised how some users interpret statements and posts.

I have maintained that Kent Johnson's and Trevor Zegras game is very similar and their frame is very similar and because of these similarities Kent Johnson's path to the NHL might be the same as Trevor Zegras' path to the NHL.

 

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3 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Haven't maintained this. Never.

I am quite surprised how some users interpret statements and posts.

I have maintained that Kent Johnson's and Trevor Zegras game is very similar and their frame is very similar and because of these similarities Kent Johnson's path to the NHL might be the same as Trevor Zegras' path to the NHL.

 

That’s a comparable, I feel it’s very fair to make comparisons in that regard. That statement wasn’t directed to you though, it was directed at TGokou for saying players with late birthdays have less upside then players with early birthdates. My comment had nothing to do with you but I agree with the statement you said and those players having those similarities 

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20 hours ago, AC Readership said:

I know it's very early to speculate, don't think the Canucks will have enough money to resign Miller as it'll come down to either keeping Horvat or Miller.

Cap space going forward is in excellent shape, we only have like 35 committed in contracts next summer and any moves made next summer will take his and Horvat's contracts in mind.

He makes 5 million now and will be moving towards the end of his prime years.

Who knows if the salary cap will have started to go back up but for a large chunk of say a five-year deal chances are it will be.

If he's producing at elite levels still and given his age maybe he gets 7.5 on a 4 year deal?

Im sure they will find a way to keep him if he's still a cog in any success we might have.

One thing I see a lot of in every fanbase is the fear of expiring contracts and the rush mentality of trade someone before they leave for free when in reality very few big names make it to the market.

Especially for teams like us that has the ability to benefit from playing in such a desirable location.

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10 hours ago, stanleysteamersmyl said:
Kent Johnson:  I grew up in East Van, it would be a dream come true if I was drafted by my hometown team.
Pick him GMGB
 
Player Facts
Date of Birth
Position
C
Age
18
Height
6'1" / 185 cm
Place of Birth
Weight
165 lbs / 75 kg
Nation
Shoots
L
Contract
-
Agency

Like I’ve said a few times here, I wouldn’t mind Johnson if he were available. He’s nowhere near NHL ready, and will probably take 2-3 years at least to be ready for full time NHL duty. 

 

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Just now, N4ZZY said:

Like I’ve said a few times here, I wouldn’t mind Johnson if he were available. He’s nowhere near NHL ready, and will probably take 2-3 years at least to be ready for full time NHL duty. 

 

Michigan is a great program and he’ll get to play with Power and Beniers again next season so you know he’ll develop well.

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1 hour ago, HockeyHarry said:

Been watching Geunther. Wow his wrist shot is Awesome
could use a sniper. Canucks need goals.

Yeah Guenther has been getting a lot of shade in this forum. If the guy was a Center he’d be talked about as a 1rst overall candidate. If he’s available at 9 he’s likely the best player available.

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4 hours ago, TGokou said:

Sure you could say he's a year younger. I say he's closer to a year older. Fact remains that those born in September - January of their draft year tend to have a lower upside potential compared to their draft eligible peers drafted April - August. This is particularly pronounced with top pairing defensemen in the NHL for whatever reason. If you don't believe me pull a random assortment of the best defensemen in the league and I guarantee you a high probability will be from those birth month I highlighted. I find this indicator less reliable for forwards but still applies. 

Interesting theory; but checked out a few random HHOF and there birthdates fell outside of your High upside zone but (the great) Mario was a hit - probably more tweaking with your theory is needed.

 

Bure - March 31

Sakic - July 7

 

 

Edited by ShawnAntoski
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7 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:

So question about kent Johnson. 

 

How good is he doing the other center stuff? Faceoffs? Defensive game? 

 

Did he mainly play center last year or is it like a stamkos situation?

He played full-time with Matt Beniers on the second line. Beniers was the center. Johnson was 8 for 16 on draws for the season. Good chance Beniers and Bordeleau are both back next season so he's likely stuck on the wing again. He's solid defensively but not exactly a standout. Smart money is on him being primarily a winger in the NHL.

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1 minute ago, DontMessMe said:

Kent Johnson 

Johnson is (seemingly) the most skilled guy in the draft, so has a huge upside, but any red flags he has give him the highest bustaroo potential too.  I wonder if a team ahead of us, that really needs young elite skill, will take a swing at him, even though he might not turn out?  

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1 hour ago, ShawnAntoski said:

Interesting theory; but checked out a few random HHOF and there birthdates fell outside of your High upside zone but (the great) Mario was a hit - probably more tweaking with your theory is needed.

 

Bure - March 31

Sakic - July 7

 

 

I've had this theory since probably 2015. Take a look at the top defensemen of the last 20 years. Yes there are gonna be some great defensemen born in the "low" potential category. Quick analysis suggests Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. However if you also look at where these defensemen were drafted you'll notice majority of them were top 10 picks. Vast majority of the good defensemen outside of the top 10 are born in the late birthday "high potential" category.  It's not really a theory anymore. Recent scouting analytics seem to suggest scouts are paying more attention to this as they tend to put a premium on this high potential category. If anything I think they've gone too far to the other side and our scouts have been able to unearth gems such as Tyler Madden,  Adam Gaudette , even  Quinn Hughes who should've gone higher but perhaps didn't because their potential was lower.

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4 hours ago, Alflives said:

Very true.  Plus Johnson is a tall and skinny baby face.  He’s got lots of physical maturing to do still.  Other guys might be younger, but they could have matured earlier.  McTavish already can grow a full beard.  There is always the ‘man amongst boys’ concern with some draft age guys.  

it could be a lot of fun to see a line with McTavish and Gadjovich tho... it would look like a crazed lumberjack line. Might scare the $&!# out of some teams to see two big bearded kids coming at them. 

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52 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I've had this theory since probably 2015. Take a look at the top defensemen of the last 20 years. Yes there are gonna be some great defensemen born in the "low" potential category. Quick analysis suggests Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. However if you also look at where these defensemen were drafted you'll notice majority of them were top 10 picks. Vast majority of the good defensemen outside of the top 10 are born in the late birthday "high potential" category.  It's not really a theory anymore. Recent scouting analytics seem to suggest scouts are paying more attention to this as they tend to put a premium on this high potential category. If anything I think they've gone too far to the other side and our scouts have been able to unearth gems such as Tyler Madden,  Adam Gaudette , even  Quinn Hughes who should've gone higher but perhaps didn't because their potential was lower.

Moving forward - I will be borrowing your theory when watching the draft.  

 

Have you only applied this theory on defenceman and how did you discover it ?

Edited by ShawnAntoski
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55 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

it could be a lot of fun to see a line with McTavish and Gadjovich tho... it would look like a crazed lumberjack line. Might scare the $&!# out of some teams to see two big bearded kids coming at them. 

Need Podkolzin on the other wing. Reminds me of Boston's 700 pound line from 2003: Mike Knuble - Joe Thornoton - Glenn Murray. It was a big man's game back then.

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1 minute ago, HighOnHockey said:

Need Podkolzin on the other wing. Reminds me of Boston's 700 pound line from 2003: Mike Knuble - Joe Thornoton - Glenn Murray. It was a big man's game back then.

now that line would be fun. Maybe punishing is the right word. 

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5 hours ago, Alflives said:

Geunther, Edvinsson and Johnson

What makes you think Guenther has bust potential? In the rough top 10 I feel as he has one of the lower bust potentials of the lot. Beniers, McTavish, and Guenther all have high floors in my opinion. They all play solid 2 way games and think the game at a high level. Worst case scenario for these players seems like a middle 6, and I have Beniers and Guenther with first line ceilings. Guenther isn't going to drive his line single handledly, but he is an excellent complimentary player because of how well he thinks the game.

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5 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

What makes you think Guenther has bust potential? In the rough top 10 I feel as he has one of the lower bust potentials of the lot. Beniers, McTavish, and Guenther all have high floors in my opinion. They all play solid 2 way games and think the game at a high level. Worst case scenario for these players seems like a middle 6, and I have Beniers and Guenther with first line ceilings. Guenther isn't going to drive his line single handledly, but he is an excellent complimentary player because of how well he thinks the game.

A feared Gunther will be as good as our last top 10 pick from the WHL.  

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1 hour ago, ShawnAntoski said:

Moving forward - I will be borrowing your theory when watching the draft.  

 

Have you only applied this theory on defenceman and how did you discover it ?

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

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