Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

2021 NHL Entry Draft


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, DontMessMe said:

Kent Johnson 

Johnson is (seemingly) the most skilled guy in the draft, so has a huge upside, but any red flags he has give him the highest bustaroo potential too.  I wonder if a team ahead of us, that really needs young elite skill, will take a swing at him, even though he might not turn out?  

  • Vintage 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ShawnAntoski said:

Interesting theory; but checked out a few random HHOF and there birthdates fell outside of your High upside zone but (the great) Mario was a hit - probably more tweaking with your theory is needed.

 

Bure - March 31

Sakic - July 7

 

 

I've had this theory since probably 2015. Take a look at the top defensemen of the last 20 years. Yes there are gonna be some great defensemen born in the "low" potential category. Quick analysis suggests Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. However if you also look at where these defensemen were drafted you'll notice majority of them were top 10 picks. Vast majority of the good defensemen outside of the top 10 are born in the late birthday "high potential" category.  It's not really a theory anymore. Recent scouting analytics seem to suggest scouts are paying more attention to this as they tend to put a premium on this high potential category. If anything I think they've gone too far to the other side and our scouts have been able to unearth gems such as Tyler Madden,  Adam Gaudette , even  Quinn Hughes who should've gone higher but perhaps didn't because their potential was lower.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Alflives said:

Very true.  Plus Johnson is a tall and skinny baby face.  He’s got lots of physical maturing to do still.  Other guys might be younger, but they could have matured earlier.  McTavish already can grow a full beard.  There is always the ‘man amongst boys’ concern with some draft age guys.  

it could be a lot of fun to see a line with McTavish and Gadjovich tho... it would look like a crazed lumberjack line. Might scare the $&!# out of some teams to see two big bearded kids coming at them. 

  • Hydration 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, TGokou said:

I've had this theory since probably 2015. Take a look at the top defensemen of the last 20 years. Yes there are gonna be some great defensemen born in the "low" potential category. Quick analysis suggests Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar. However if you also look at where these defensemen were drafted you'll notice majority of them were top 10 picks. Vast majority of the good defensemen outside of the top 10 are born in the late birthday "high potential" category.  It's not really a theory anymore. Recent scouting analytics seem to suggest scouts are paying more attention to this as they tend to put a premium on this high potential category. If anything I think they've gone too far to the other side and our scouts have been able to unearth gems such as Tyler Madden,  Adam Gaudette , even  Quinn Hughes who should've gone higher but perhaps didn't because their potential was lower.

Moving forward - I will be borrowing your theory when watching the draft.  

 

Have you only applied this theory on defenceman and how did you discover it ?

Edited by ShawnAntoski
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

it could be a lot of fun to see a line with McTavish and Gadjovich tho... it would look like a crazed lumberjack line. Might scare the $&!# out of some teams to see two big bearded kids coming at them. 

Need Podkolzin on the other wing. Reminds me of Boston's 700 pound line from 2003: Mike Knuble - Joe Thornoton - Glenn Murray. It was a big man's game back then.

  • Like 2
  • Hydration 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, HighOnHockey said:

Need Podkolzin on the other wing. Reminds me of Boston's 700 pound line from 2003: Mike Knuble - Joe Thornoton - Glenn Murray. It was a big man's game back then.

now that line would be fun. Maybe punishing is the right word. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Alflives said:

Geunther, Edvinsson and Johnson

What makes you think Guenther has bust potential? In the rough top 10 I feel as he has one of the lower bust potentials of the lot. Beniers, McTavish, and Guenther all have high floors in my opinion. They all play solid 2 way games and think the game at a high level. Worst case scenario for these players seems like a middle 6, and I have Beniers and Guenther with first line ceilings. Guenther isn't going to drive his line single handledly, but he is an excellent complimentary player because of how well he thinks the game.

  • Like 1
  • Hydration 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, shayster007 said:

What makes you think Guenther has bust potential? In the rough top 10 I feel as he has one of the lower bust potentials of the lot. Beniers, McTavish, and Guenther all have high floors in my opinion. They all play solid 2 way games and think the game at a high level. Worst case scenario for these players seems like a middle 6, and I have Beniers and Guenther with first line ceilings. Guenther isn't going to drive his line single handledly, but he is an excellent complimentary player because of how well he thinks the game.

A feared Gunther will be as good as our last top 10 pick from the WHL.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ShawnAntoski said:

Moving forward - I will be borrowing your theory when watching the draft.  

 

Have you only applied this theory on defenceman and how did you discover it ?

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, brbetts542 said:

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

What are your thoughts on guys who mature physically earlier than their peers?  Like McTavish has a full bear, right?  Maybe he was a man already, and dominating against mostly guys who are still boys?  Your theory is kind of the same, no?  At age 17/18 (draft year for most guys) it’s an advantage to be more physically developed.  And that advantage is more prevalent in the earlier birthdays.  There will be outliers, of course.  That’s why I wonder about McTavish.  Is he already a man, and so we aren’t going to see a lot of improvement in his game that would normally occur in guys who still have a lot of physical development left?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, brbetts542 said:

This is not a theory. It’s widely known in the scouting industry and is common sense, in my opinion....If it helps, try thinking about it more along the lines of mining value from draft eligible players that aren’t quite as developed and have, on average, been a whole 6 months behind in age compared to their peers.
 

Or just read outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  

Wait, what? You just seem to be making the argument that there is more room for development for summer birthday players at the time they are drafted. Everyone knows that the youngest players at the draft on average have more room for improvement. This doesn't logically entail TGoku's claim that most of the best players are born in that date range. In fact, I looked up the synopsis to the book you mentioned, and it seems to claim exactly the opposite, that "a disproportionate number of elite Canadian hockey players are born in the earlier months of the calendar year."

Edited by HighOnHockey
  • Vintage 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Alflives said:

What are your thoughts on guys who mature physically earlier than their peers?  Like McTavish has a full bear, right?  Maybe he was a man already, and dominating against mostly guys who are still boys?  Your theory is kind of the same, no?  At age 17/18 (draft year for most guys) it’s an advantage to be more physically developed.  And that advantage is more prevalent in the earlier birthdays.  There will be outliers, of course.  That’s why I wonder about McTavish.  Is he already a man, and so we aren’t going to see a lot of improvement in his game that would normally occur in guys who still have a lot of physical development left?  

McTavish has a full bear? I want a full bear now

image.gif.133f1d03843eea6486ae1689a838a3e2.gif

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Googlie said:

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

What did Kevin say to Cassie that was sexist?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm curious if we go with a kid like Raty at our pick. He's had a slow start this season playing in the Finnish league he was projected to be a top 5 pick last season before the year he had. Sure, he hasn't been clicking but he's a center who I believe can play the wing as well if needed. But, he still has the potential to be the best player in the draft. There's risk involved but sometimes you have to take one in order to grab the best player in the draft. Look at Podz for instance with the last 1st rounder we had and used. Should've been a top 5 pick but because he still had a contract with his Russian team, teams were afraid to take him. Now, he's looking like a star the way he's been able to play when it matters most when he was with SKA. Anywho, this is a wide open draft and hopefully we grab another stud

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Googlie said:

On a totally unrelated topic (didn't want to start a thread in case it amounted to nothing) but has Bieksa been disciplined by HNIC?  He hasn't appeared on the last 3 panels, and last time he was on he had Ron McClean rolling his eyes and showing his "pained face" on a somewhat sexist comment he made to Cassie.  Couldn't find anything on Google, but strange that Ron didn't even comment on his absence.

I think HNIC just has a rotation of panelists each getting a small break. 
Ron McClean is the only full time regular.

kelly Hrudey is great when hes rotated off, you don’t really miss him. Only BX you notice when hes not there cuz hes the biggest personality.

Side note: I think Ron McClean has alittle man crush for BIeksa. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can officially confirm

 

Lake and Ocean water IS warm enough for swimming and other water related activities. Floating on tube at your closest water spot can now be done officially for a full day event without fear of water being to cold causing male body part shrinkage. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...