2021 NHL Entry Draft

[DeNiro]

Just now, Bertuzzipunch said:

Thats why we should trade the 9OA

That’s one option.

 

But if a highly ranked winger like Guenther or Eklund fell to us that’s also a good option.

[Gawdzukes]

22 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Take a winger. We need cheap scoring in our top 6 and a winger will likely be ready for that role before a center.

 

Third line center is a need we can fill through trade or free agency. A center at 9th doesn’t make sense IMO. They’d get buried behind Petey and Horvat like Jost gets buried in Colorado.

 

A high scoring winger ready next year (22/23) or year after wouldn't be so bad. If Podkolzin gets going and Hoglander keeps progressing we'd be pretty sick up front in our top 9.

 

Miller

Podkolzin

Boeser

Horvat

Petterson

Guenther

Hoglander

Pearson

ufa or trade

 

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Gawdzukes

[Bertuzzipunch]

5 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

That’s one option.

 

But if a highly ranked winger like Guenther or Eklund fell to us that’s also a good option.

Yeah give me eklund

[DeNiro]

2 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

A high scoring winger ready next year (22/23) or year after wouldn't be so bad. If Podkolzin gets going and Hoglander keeps progressing we'd be pretty sick up front in our top 9.

 

Miller

Podkolzin

Boeser

Horvat

Petterson

Guenther

Hoglander

Pearson

ufa or trade

 

 

Exactly the top 9 depth you need to compete.

 

We’d have three players on ELCs that can contribute and cap space to fill out the D.

[HighOnHockey]

4 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Just watched Scouch's new video on Sillinger. Kinda turned me off to him honestly, though I was never super into him in the first place. The video gives me a lot of Virtanen vibes from his draft year.

 

Interestingly, both Johnson and Sillinger are somewhat labeled as trying to do too much themselves, but I have a lot more confidence in Johnson with our pick. He seems to use a lot more vision on ice than Sillinger.

I never usually watch these things, but given how drastically my evaluation of this player differs from the consensus, there's clearly something going on, so I decided to give it a try. Unfortunately, I just couldn't finish. I got about a quarter or third of the way through, so my apologies if Scouching already addressed some of my points in his video. As Isam pointed out, it's a pretty limited sample set, but not the number of viewings - 7 games is a decent sample. It's not a matter of picking the wrong viewings but of isolating one specific situation. I'll be the first to admit, my viewings on Sillinger were fairly limited - 4 from U17s, 1 from Medicine Hat, 1 from Sioux Falls, but altogether I think they paint a vivid picture.

 

To explain what I think is going on, first I need to look back at another time last year where my evaluation differed drastically from the consensus: Shakir Mukhamadullin, who I had some 15-20 viewings on between 2019 U18s, Hlinkas, WJAC, 5NU18s, KHL and eventually MHL. I knew him as arguably the best defensive defenseman in the draft. I never saw all that much offensive upside from him, as he was a guy who was always just looking to separate puck from body and quickly move puck out of danger. Far more likely to exit the zone off the glass or flip into an area than skate or pass it out under control. So I had him as one of the safest picks in the draft to be at least an 18-21 minute defenseman, even without a lot of upside, and to me that was enough to rank 17th overall. But then I kept seeing comments about how reckless he was with the puck, trying to do too much, projects as a puck-moving D, and I was bewildered. Until I saw him in MHL. When playing for Russia, especially at U18s and WJAC where he was underaged, he was committed to a particular role to help his team win championships (which they did) - pure stay-at-home shutdown defenseman. But in MHL, as easily the best defenseman on his team, it was like watching a completely different player, rushing the puck, constantly getting involved deep in the offensive zone. So yes, all this to say, a complete picture is crucial.

 

I wanted to scream at my laptop when I was watching that Scouching video, Sioux Falls was the second worst team in USHL, and one of the lowest scoring, despite Sillinger's 24 goals in 31 games. Despite missing the first ~20 games of the season, he finished 7 goals ahead of his closet teammate (and .336 g/g difference) and 9 points ahead of his next closest teammate (.395 p/g different). Before I saw him in USHL or realized how bad his team was, when I first started hearing this talk that Sillinger is a player who does too much by himself, I was flabbergasted. In U17s he was the furthest possible thing, he practically spent all of his offensive zone time just anchored to the goalie's crease. I swear to you there was times where he was used on a line with Matthew Savoie and his sole task was to hang back, stay above Savoie and support the puck (the underaged Savoie does have a penchance for trying to attack defenders with a little too much confidence).

 

If there is one thing I've been saying about Sillinger since U17s it is that he's a swiss army knife - that if he pans out the way I think he will, in the NHL he'll be a perfect soldier and be willing and happy to play any role from 1LW to 3C, PK, and practically any position on the PP (halfwall, netfront, bumper). So yeah, as bizarre as it seemed to me when I first heard about Sillinger trying to do too much, with proper context it makes perfect sense. Canada White was loaded with talent and just needed him parked in front of the net. Sioux Falls was drastically in need of an offensive difference-maker, so Sillinger played the part to the best of his abilities. He's not a particularly high-end playmaker - and this is something I've never had any illusions about - so for him that means attacking the inside and scoring goals: to the tune of the 2nd highest g/g by a non-NTDP U18 in the past decade, only behind Bobby Brink, and ahead of Kyle Connor, Johnny Gaudreau, Brock Boeser; all with an absolute impoverishment of offensive support.

Edited July 1, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[Sp3nny]

38 minutes ago, HighOnHockey said:

I never usually watch these things, but given how drastically my evaluation of this player differs from the consensus, there's clearly something going on, so I decided to give it a try. Unfortunately, I just couldn't finish. I got about a quarter or third of the way through, so my apologies if Scouching already addressed some of my points in his video. As Isam pointed out, it's a pretty limited sample set, but not the number of viewings - 7 games is a decent sample. It's not a matter of picking the wrong viewings but of isolating one specific situation. I'll be the first to admit, my viewings on Sillinger were fairly limited - 4 from U17s, 1 from Medicine Hat, 1 from Sioux Falls, but altogether I think they paint a vivid picture.

 

To explain what I think is going on, first I need to look back at another time last year where my evaluation differed drastically from the consensus: Shakir Mukhamadullin, who I had some 15-20 viewings on between 2019 U18s, Hlinkas, WJAC, 5NU18s, KHL and eventually MHL. I knew him as arguably the best defensive defenseman in the draft. I never saw all that much offensive upside from him, as he was a guy who was always just looking to separate puck from body and quickly move puck out of danger. Far more likely to exit the zone off the glass or flip into an area than skate or pass it out under control. So I had him as one of the safest picks in the draft to be at least an 18-21 minute defenseman, even without a lot of upside, and to me that was enough to rank 17th overall. But then I kept seeing comments about how reckless he was with the puck, trying to do too much, projects as a puck-moving D, and I was bewildered. Until I saw him in MHL. When playing for Russia, especially at U18s and WJAC where he was underaged, he was committed to a particular role to help his team win championships (which they did) - pure stay-at-home shutdown defenseman. But in MHL, as easily the best defenseman on his team, it was like watching a completely different player, rushing the puck, constantly getting involved deep in the offensive zone. So yes, all this to say, a complete picture is crucial.

 

I wanted to scream at my laptop when I was watching that Scouching video, Sioux Falls was the second worst team in USHL, and one of the lowest scoring, despite Sillinger's 24 goals in 31 games. Despite missing the first ~20 games of the season, he finished 7 goals ahead of his closet teammate (and .336 g/g difference) and 9 points ahead of his next closest teammate (.395 p/g different). Before I saw him in USHL or realized how bad his team was, when I first started hearing this talk that Sillinger is a player who does too much by himself, I was flabbergasted. In U17s he was the furthest possible thing, he practically spent all of his offensive zone time just anchored to the goalie's crease. I swear to you there was times where he was used on a line with Matthew Savoie and his sole task was to hang back, stay above Savoie and support the puck (the underaged Savoie does have a penchance for trying to attack defenders with a little too much confidence).

 

If there is one thing I've been saying about Sillinger since U17s it is that he's a swiss army knife - that if he pans out the way I think he will, in the NHL he'll be a perfect soldier and be willing and happy to play any role from 1LW to 3C, PK, and practically any position on the PP (halfwall, netfront, bumper). So yeah, as bizarre as it seemed to me when I first heard about Sillinger trying to do too much, with proper context it makes perfect sense. Canada White was loaded with talent and just needed him parked in front of the net. Sioux Falls was drastically in need of an offensive difference-maker, so Sillinger played the part to the best of his abilities. He's not a particularly high-end playmaker - and this is something I've never had any illusions about - so for him that means attacking the inside and scoring goals: to the tune of the 2nd highest g/g by a non-NTDP U18 in the past decade, only behind Bobby Brink, and ahead of Kyle Connor, Johnny Gaudreau, Brock Boeser; all with an absolute impoverishment of offensive support.

Thanks for the context. Normally I watch Scouch's stuff just for some of his statistical breakdown, rather than what his opinion is. I like to make my own opinions based on what I see, but its nice when the data can confirm or deny my own perceptions.

 

I think Will did a decent job of explaining that Cole has a great goal scoring knack, but he didn't mention anything about the teams themselves, just that his assist rate had dropped off significantly between Medicine Hat and Sioux Falls. That bit of info helps clear up some of the suspicions of playmaking deficiencies.

 

One interesting tidbit I picked up on today when comparing Johnson and Sillinger. In an interview with Johnson, he mentioned that he knows he lacks the speed to play as a driving winger down the boards, so he has shifted to driving off the boards into the middle in this year with Michigan. What caught more of my attention though, was he mentioned that he knows he needs to get quicker all around, and has been working with a power skating coach (Barb Aidelbaum who has worked with some Canuck players).

 

I love when guys can not only identify their weakness, but actually look to improve on it. I'm sure most of these young guys are actively working with skating and skills coaches and such, but its nice to hear from the horses mouth.

[N4ZZY]

21 hours ago, Nicklas Bo Hunter said:

Yes but likely seattle take holtby and trade him to boston

Why can't we trade Holtby to Boston, and then sign a cheap goalie to expose in the expansion draft? 

 

[Canuck Surfer]

2 hours ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Rather get a stud center like mctavish who i think could come in as soon as the following season. 1 year or maybe immediately on the team if he has a good training camp. Having him take over for Bo as 2C when hes 25 or so.   Theres a lot of RHD we can choose from in the 2nd and 3rd round.

I'm not sure McTavish is a stud center.  

 

I see a guy who is clever, makes plays. Understands where to be, effective & executes when he gets there. All the simple skills, a quick pass, excellent shot.  Works hard. Feisty, backchecks, competes.  All comendable. Very much so! Has size, also positive...

 

What I dont see is blazing speed, elite skills. A better athlete than others in his draft bracket. A guy who can handle the puck under pressure, zone entries, exits, dangles, sauce passes, creativity... I do see some projecting him as a top line player? 

 

My thought is without great speed, he would have to be the plugger who can score goals. Holds the cycle, he is big, creates physical mismatches. Crashes the net. At wing, who plays with other guys who have speed and skill.  

 

Am I underrating Mac?

 

Honest question... 

 

 

 

 

[Bertuzzipunch]

10 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

I'm not sure McTavish is a stud center.  

 

I see a guy who is clever, makes plays. Understands where to be, effective & executes when he gets there. All the simple skills, a quick pass, excellent shot.  Works hard. Feisty, backchecks, competes.  All comendable. Very much so! Has size, also positive...

 

What I dont see is blazing speed, elite skills. A better athlete than others in his draft bracket. A guy who can handle the puck under pressure, zone entries, exits, dangles, sauce passes, creativity... I do see some projecting him as a top line player? 

 

My thought is without great speed, he would have to be the plugger who can score goals. Holds the cycle, he is big, creates physical mismatches. Crashes the net. At wing, who plays with other guys who have speed and skill.  

 

Am I underrating Mac?

 

Honest question... 

 

 

 

 

Nah you aint underrating him i see him as pretty much a Horvat clone but way better defensively. I dont see a franchise 1C like petey is. The interview i watched of how he is personally impressed me a lot. Again reminded me of Bo in it, kid seems like a natural leader, has a mans body already and could help us out sooner rather than later. Someone that could jump into the to 6 if someone is injured or when he eventually takes the 2C spot.

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

Did anyone else catch Scott Wheeler's mock draft on the Athletic? Methinks we're getting a good one at 9.

[HighOnHockey]

25 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

I'm not sure McTavish is a stud center.  

 

I see a guy who is clever, makes plays. Understands where to be, effective & executes when he gets there. All the simple skills, a quick pass, excellent shot.  Works hard. Feisty, backchecks, competes.  All comendable. Very much so! Has size, also positive...

 

What I dont see is blazing speed, elite skills. A better athlete than others in his draft bracket. A guy who can handle the puck under pressure, zone entries, exits, dangles, sauce passes, creativity... I do see some projecting him as a top line player? 

 

My thought is without great speed, he would have to be the plugger who can score goals. Holds the cycle, he is big, creates physical mismatches. Crashes the net. At wing, who plays with other guys who have speed and skill.  

 

Am I underrating Mac?

 

Honest question... 

 

 

I'd never been able to come up with a good comparison for McTavish, but I saw someone somewhere compared him to Jeff Carter. That one really struck me as spot on, not sure how I hadn't though of it. I don't see elite puck skills, but I do see really high-end playmaking ability. I dunno if creativity is the right word, but he can find things and execute in tight spaces. I'm a bit stuck in the middle on him, as I don't expect him to be a superstar in the regular season, but with his brick $&!#house of a frame combined with that ability to make plays with limited time and space down low, he's the kind of player every team is wishing for come playoff time when things tighten up. Hard to say exactly what that's worth compared to the upside of a guy like Johnson or Hughes.

[86Viking]

11 hours ago, Bertuzzipunch said:

Center…

you mean winger

[HighOnHockey]

9 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

Thanks for the context. Normally I watch Scouch's stuff just for some of his statistical breakdown, rather than what his opinion is. I like to make my own opinions based on what I see, but its nice when the data can confirm or deny my own perceptions.

 

I think Will did a decent job of explaining that Cole has a great goal scoring knack, but he didn't mention anything about the teams themselves, just that his assist rate had dropped off significantly between Medicine Hat and Sioux Falls. That bit of info helps clear up some of the suspicions of playmaking deficiencies.

 

One interesting tidbit I picked up on today when comparing Johnson and Sillinger. In an interview with Johnson, he mentioned that he knows he lacks the speed to play as a driving winger down the boards, so he has shifted to driving off the boards into the middle in this year with Michigan. What caught more of my attention though, was he mentioned that he knows he needs to get quicker all around, and has been working with a power skating coach (Barb Aidelbaum who has worked with some Canuck players).

 

I love when guys can not only identify their weakness, but actually look to improve on it. I'm sure most of these young guys are actively working with skating and skills coaches and such, but its nice to hear from the horses mouth.

Yeah I didn't mean to be so critical of Scouch. I watched a few of his videos last year and no doubt there is value to be taken from them. I'll probably watch a couple of his videos for players I have trouble finding much footage on, namely Scott Morrow and Ville Koivunen.

 

But one other thing with Sillinger I'm having trouble rectifying is, in the Dobber video package, they highlight some really disinterested play from Sillinger in his own zone. Looking back at my original notes from U17s, I was raving about his 200-foot hockey sense - anticipation, timing, tracking the puck - but interestingly, no mention of anything like defensive commitment or effort level. That said, he and Liam Arnsby was the team's top forward unit on the PK, and they had a number of three on fives, and even one where a time out was called: every time they came out with one defenseman (I believe it was always Lambos) along with the two forwards, Arnsby and Sillinger.

[Wolfgang Durst]

11 hours ago, DeNiro said:

That’s one option.

 

But if a highly ranked winger like Guenther or Eklund fell to us that’s also a good option.

Can't see any scenario in which Eklund falls outside the top 5.

 

 

If Anaheim trade it's 3oa pick to another team he will make it to 5  -  Kekalainen will pick him.

[HighOnHockey]

27 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

Can't see any scenario in which Eklund falls outside the top 5.

 

 

If Anaheim trade it's 3oa pick to another team he will make it to 5  -  Kekalainen will pick him.

Buffalo's assistant director of scouting, Jason Nightingale was recently promoted from director of analytics...

 

Also, I'm keeping a close eye on Anders Forsberg. Bryan Murray was the GM in Detroit in the '90s, in the early days of the legend Hakan Andersson. When Murray took over as GM in Ottawa in 2007, Anders Forsberg was recommended to him by Andersson. and in the next four drafts they picked Erik Karlsson (traded up to ensure they got him on Forsberg's insistence), Jakob Silfverberg, Robin Lehner and Mika Zibanejad.

 

Forsberg then returned to Sweden for a couple years to pursue coaching and management, until Ottawa's AGM Tim Murray got the head GM job in Buffalo and brought in Forsberg. They picked Alex Nylander 8th overall, in part on Forsberg's recommendation. Nylander struggled with injuries from the get-go and never developed the way they planned. Forsberg was let go and returned to Sweden, and Nylander was eventually traded. Then Nylander had his first full NHL season with Chicago and showed he actually could be a very effective NHL player, and may have panned out if not for the injuries. Whoops! Forsberg was re-hired by Buffalo last summer.

 

I've just been completely in awe of this guy since the Karlsson pick, and I suspect Tim Murray felt the same way when he brought him over to Buffalo the first time. I dunno, is his reputation as looming as I believe it is? Can he be the deciding factor to bring Eklund to Buffalo over Power?

Edited July 1, 2021 by HighOnHockey

[Putgolzin]

11 hours ago, DeNiro said:

Take a winger. We need cheap scoring in our top 6 and a winger will likely be ready for that role before a center.

 

Third line center is a need we can fill through trade or free agency. A center at 9th doesn’t make sense IMO. They’d get buried behind Petey and Horvat like Jost gets buried in Colorado.

 

100%

No sense drafting for a current organizational need as that need better be solved long before the pick is ready to do so.

On the wing is the one spot where the timeline can more regularly be shortened.

[Nucker 67]

VAN won't get Power, and probably won't get Clarke or Hughes. That leaves Edvinsson as the D, so I'm leaning towards a forward 

 

Johnson has the flash and skill, but will it translate? And if so, how many years will it take? Seems like such a risky pick, boom or bust. He's also 165 lbs.

 

Horvat

Pettersson

Miller

Hoglander

Boeser

??

 

Who will best fill that spot to make them a winner?

 

I'm assuming Podkolzin will play on the 3rd line next season, get his feet wet, and maybe that's where he stays for a while. Pearson may join him there once this #9 prospect joins the team.

 

My hope it that they put Pettersson on Miller's wing moving forward.

 

Pettersson - Miller - Boeser

Eklund/Guenther - Horvat - Hoglander

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Googlie]

The Hockey Guy's take on Raty .....

 

 

[Phat Fingers]

14 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

I agree that they got lucky through the draft, but I don't agree that's the sole reason they won.

 

I guess Stanley Cup winning rosters are only impressive when they don't have a 1st overall pick.

It’s the defining need, not one team has won with a non first or second overall in a long time.  Montreal could be one.  

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, NUCKER67 said:

VAN won't get Power, and probably won't get Clarke or Hughes. That leaves Edvinsson as the D, so I'm leaning towards a forward 

 

Johnson has the flash and skill, but will it translate? And if so, how many years will it take? Seems like such a risky pick, boom or bust. He's also 165 lbs.

 

Horvat

Pettersson

Miller

Hoglander

Boeser

??

 

Who will best fill that spot to make them a winner?

 

I'm assuming Podkolzin will play on the 3rd line next season, get his feet wet, and maybe that's where he stays for a while. Pearson may join him there once this #9 prospect joins the team.

 

My hope it that they put Pettersson on Miller's wing moving forward.

 

Pettersson - Miller - Boeser

Eklund/Guenther - Horvat - Hoglander

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podkolzin is already a great player.  He’s definitely playing top six minutes.  

I think Eklund falls to us.  I also think he’s ready to play next season.

Petey and Bess

Bo and Pearson

Miller and Pods

Then fill in the other winger on each line from:  Hogs, Eklund, and Motte.