[Report] Connor Brown wants $4.8 million in Arbitration

[Provost]

This sounds like a crazy ask, it is entirely possible it is a "get me out of Ottawa" play where his agent wants to scare them enough to trade him.

I haven't seen what the Virtanen ask is, but pretty comparable production.  Brown has been used a a top line and all situations player in Ottawa though logging 20 minutes a game last year to hit that level of production.  More valuable in his versatility than Jake, but less valuable in terms of production per 60 minutes on the ice.

Maybe it scares Ottawa into trading him before they are stuck with a possible huge arbitration award and they can't unload his money at all.
 

 

[189lb enforcers?]

Negotiation tactic. 
They all do it, even in sales. 
Ask for 3 x, settle where you would have in the first place. 
Kills the whole meet in the middle part game. 

[#Canucks]

I would love for the arbitrator to go off the wall and screw sens or At least Eugene

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

His 43 points tied him for 111th in league scoring and tied for 97th among forwards.

 

Over 200 NHL players have salaries greater than $4.8M AAV.
 

Brown’s scoring is comparable:

 

Nick Schmaltz $5.85M AAV

Josh Anderson $5.5M AAV

 

(both signed as RFAs)

 

I’m not arguing that he deserves $4.8M, just that it’s not an entirely crazy number from the player’s side.

 

Team is also lowballing at $2.25M, so probably a good move for the player to go as high as $4.8M, and hope they meet in the middle somewhere.

 

Would be funny though if the arb comes back at something like $4.5M, just under the walk away threshold.

 

 

 

[-AJ-]

He's just asking for more than he's worth so he can get a middle amount. It's quite normal. I wouldn't be surprised if Virtanen's camp is asking for $3.7M or something right now.

[Coconuts]

It's Melnyk's money he's negotiating for, him and his agent have gotta do everything they can to get as much of it as possible 

[CRAZY_4_NAZZY]

If I was playing in Ottawa I'd ask for a lot more with the kind of ownership they have.

 

Big fan of Brown, very underrated for what he provides a team.

[Vinny in Vancouver]

9 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

He's just asking for more than he's worth so he can get a middle amount. It's quite normal. I wouldn't be surprised if Virtanen's camp is asking for $3.7M or something right now.

Based on that $3.7M, given that some people in this forum think Jake should only get $2M, to reach that number in this "meet in the middle" approach, the Canucks would need to offer 300K. 

[Provost]

56 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

His 43 points tied him for 111th in league scoring and tied for 97th among forwards.

 

Over 200 NHL players have salaries greater than $4.8M AAV.
 

Brown’s scoring is comparable:

 

Nick Schmaltz $5.85M AAV

Josh Anderson $5.5M AAV

 

(both signed as RFAs)

 

I’m not arguing that he deserves $4.8M, just that it’s not an entirely crazy number from the player’s side.

 

Team is also lowballing at $2.25M, so probably a good move for the player to go as high as $4.8M, and hope they meet in the middle somewhere.

 

Would be funny though if the arb comes back at something like $4.5M, just under the walk away threshold.

 

 

 

Yes, the folks just saying that his agent is asking for a crazy amount so it ends up in the middle just don't understand the process.  That isn't how it works at all, there are limits and rules around what evidence they can present.  The Agent can't just ask for million more than any reasonable comparables to artificially force the arb decision higher by "picking in the middle".

Like you did, the agent has to find reasonable comparables to justify their ask.  They pick the highest comparables possible.  The team does the same but picks the lowest comparables.

20 minutes a game is top line minutes and his production is solid.  He didn't fluff his point totals on the PP as he was mostly playing PK and 5 on 5.

His agent would be saying players like Labanc ($4.75), Krieder (his last contract @4.625 million), and Hertl ($5.625) are comparables (from an Athletic article).  That puts $4.8 million as totally reasonable, considering that the cap is higher than when those were signed, so $4.8 would represent a lower % of the total cap than the lower two numbers were at the time.

I have no idea what comparables Ottawa is using.  Maybe they are arguing that his recent year is just a blip because he was on a terrible team, and should mostly be thrown out.

https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-salary-arbitration-explained-2778981

Edited October 20, 2020 by Provost

[oldnews]

If we are pretending here that the offers/asks are "reasonable" relative to comparables - and that people here 'don't understand the process'....

 

then Ottawa's offer is the absurd one.

 

Thread title could/should just as easily be "Ottawa lowballs Brown at 2.25"

 

A 2.25 offer for a player 1 pt off your team lead, in the contexts he plays in - is a ridiculous lowball.

 

As a counterpoint to 2.25 - Brown 'should have' asked more imo - the middle ground of 3.5 is something the Senators 'should have' been willing to negotiate imo.

Brown's production is misleading - quite misleading - highly deflated - and beyond that he's not only their best offensive player (5 on 5) - but he's also their best defensive forward.

 

40.1% offensive zone starts was the lowest of any forward (only Borowiecki had lower).

48.6% corsi -only 4 regular F had better corsi - all of those forwards well over 50% ozone starts.

20 Senators gave up more on ice goals per 60 than Brown.

37 of Brown's 43 points came at even strength....Brown was 12th among Senators, 8th among regulars in pp ice time.

He was their lead forward penalty killer at 2:36 pk ice time/game.

 

What might really annoy him is what the Senators just gave Dadanov.

Dadanov 60.1% offensive zone starts - 3rd on Florida alongside Hoffman

17 of his 47 pts came on the powerplay... considerably inferior 5on5  production in context to Brown.

23rd best on ice sv% on Florida

2nd highest on ice goals against per 60 on the Panthers.

3:20 / game of powerplay ice time.

-7 was 2nd worst on the Panthers.

Dadanov has had a couple more productive previous seasons, but he's also 31 and typically fell in the range of 4th among Panther's forwards in scoring...

Factor in that Dadanov's outcomes were on a playoff team, whereas Brown's had him 1pt off his team lead on the 2nd worst team in the NHL.....

Mitigating factor here is Brown's RFA vs Dadanov's UFA status....

 

But still - when you give Dadanov 5 million - and offer Brown 2.25....no doubt he goes to arbitration.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by oldnews

[mll]

Don't see Brown getting that kind of role on another team. LeBrun among others feels like things could be even rougher in a year for UFAs.  This could be another shortened season with close to no fans in the stands.  Feels like a gamble from his side to go to arbitration over trying to get a 2-3 year contract.  In a year as UFA will he even get 2.25M?  

 

His ask is also above the ~4.539M walk-away limit - don't see him getting that kind of money on the open market if the Senators are allowed to walk away.

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by mll

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

9 minutes ago, mll said:

Don't see Brown getting that kind of role on another team. LeBrun among others feels like things could be even rougher in a year for UFAs.  This could be another shortened season with close to no fans in the stands.  Feels like a gamble from his side to go to arbitration over trying to get a 2-3 year contract.  In a year as UFA will he even get 2.25M?  

 

His ask is also above the ~4.539M walk-away limit - don't see him getting that kind of money on the open market if the Senators are allowed to walk away.

 

I think he’d get a lot more than $2.25M as a UFA, even if he dropped back to a ~30 points per season player, playing in a similar role to the one he had in Toronto.

 

But if he continues producing ~50 points per 82 games, with the kind of usage he gets in Ottawa? That kind of player probably deserves $4-5 million AAV.

 

For a one year arb award, ~$3.5M seems fair, even in the current Covid market.
 

Probably something closer to $4M is around his value right now, on a multiyear deal.

 

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey (whose models have proven quite accurate) projected Brown at $3,938,000 AAV on a 4 year term.

[189lb enforcers?]

36 minutes ago, mll said:

Don't see Brown getting that kind of role on another team. LeBrun among others feels like things could be even rougher in a year for UFAs.  This could be another shortened season with close to no fans in the stands.  Feels like a gamble from his side to go to arbitration over trying to get a 2-3 year contract.  In a year as UFA will he even get 2.25M?  

 

His ask is also above the ~4.539M walk-away limit - don't see him getting that kind of money on the open market if the Senators are allowed to walk away.

 

He might be trying to get out of there too by using this tactic. 
If Ottawa walks away from this, can he sign elsewhere for less?

Like... Toronto? 

[Provost]

4 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think he’d get a lot more than $2.25M as a UFA, even if he dropped back to a ~30 points per season player, playing in a similar role to the one he had in Toronto.

 

But if he continues producing ~50 points per 82 games, with the kind of usage he gets in Ottawa? That kind of player probably deserves $4-5 million AAV.

 

For a one year arb award, ~$3.5M seems fair, even in the current Covid market.
 

Probably something closer to $4M is around his value right now, on a multiyear deal.

 

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey (whose models have proven quite accurate) projected Brown at $3,938,000 AAV on a 4 year term.

The "crazy" part is how it relates to wanting to continue to play in Ottawa.  That ask screams him wanting out of there.  If the arbitration award comes in around $4 million or above I can't see them keeping him.  Nothing in their history has suggested being OK with paying market value, and with projected losses in the tens of millions for them this year a $4 million price tag is untenable. 

This is a team that has had trouble making payroll before Covid.  Last year in cash he was paying less than $50 million in real cash for payroll (minus escrow), the rest was fake cap space with free LTIR players and trading for players who already had signing bonuses paid.  Is there any indication that knowing he won't have revenue that he will want to dramatically increase his spend?

[mll]

23 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think he’d get a lot more than $2.25M as a UFA, even if he dropped back to a ~30 points per season player, playing in a similar role to the one he had in Toronto.

 

But if he continues producing ~50 points per 82 games, with the kind of usage he gets in Ottawa? That kind of player probably deserves $4-5 million AAV.

 

For a one year arb award, ~$3.5M seems fair, even in the current Covid market.
 

Probably something closer to $4M is around his value right now, on a multiyear deal.

 

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey (whose models have proven quite accurate) projected Brown at $3,938,000 AAV on a 4 year term.

 

I wouldn't even expect him to get 3M on the open market.   He would probably not get the same usage on another team.  

 

Several teams still have their own players to sign and many are already short on cap space.

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by mll

[oldnews]

28 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think he’d get a lot more than $2.25M as a UFA, even if he dropped back to a ~30 points per season player, playing in a similar role to the one he had in Toronto.

 

But if he continues producing ~50 points per 82 games, with the kind of usage he gets in Ottawa? That kind of player probably deserves $4-5 million AAV.

 

For a one year arb award, ~$3.5M seems fair, even in the current Covid market.
 

Probably something closer to $4M is around his value right now, on a multiyear deal.

 

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey (whose models have proven quite accurate) projected Brown at $3,938,000 AAV on a 4 year term.

much closer to a realistic assessment of the player imo.

[Provost]

I would also add that I would take Brown over Virtanen as a fit for our team.

 

He is really good defensively and would be a much better fit on the Horvat line.

 

Brown at $4 million x 2 years compared with say Virtanen at $2.75 x 2 (if the reports of a Pre-arb deal being done are true)

 

In real dollars Eriksson + Virtanen would be around $11 million over two years vs. $10 million for Brown + a $1 million player over the same timeframe.

 

In that context, what sweetener would it take Ottawa to make that deal?  Probably still a protected 1st round pick?  Boy if we could find a way to give them something like our (protected)1st, Rafferty, Virtanen, and Sutter 50% retained for Brown and Tierney back?  That would be an effective use of our cap space.  We would only really be short a solid 3rd pairing D to have a really good lineup. 

[mll]

43 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think he’d get a lot more than $2.25M as a UFA, even if he dropped back to a ~30 points per season player, playing in a similar role to the one he had in Toronto.

 

But if he continues producing ~50 points per 82 games, with the kind of usage he gets in Ottawa? That kind of player probably deserves $4-5 million AAV.

 

For a one year arb award, ~$3.5M seems fair, even in the current Covid market.
 

Probably something closer to $4M is around his value right now, on a multiyear deal.

 

For what it’s worth, Evolving Hockey (whose models have proven quite accurate) projected Brown at $3,938,000 AAV on a 4 year term.

 

Toffoli's projection vs what he ultimately got.  Their projections don't factor in that it's a pandemic and that the market has adjusted.  

 

Do you have any teams in mind who would want to pay Brown that kind of contract?  I don't see an obvious fit with most teams not having a lot of cap space.   

 

 

[mll]

42 minutes ago, Provost said:

The "crazy" part is how it relates to wanting to continue to play in Ottawa.  That ask screams him wanting out of there.  If the arbitration award comes in around $4 million or above I can't see them keeping him.  Nothing in their history has suggested being OK with paying market value, and with projected losses in the tens of millions for them this year a $4 million price tag is untenable. 

This is a team that has had trouble making payroll before Covid.  Last year in cash he was paying less than $50 million in real cash for payroll (minus escrow), the rest was fake cap space with free LTIR players and trading for players who already had signing bonuses paid.  Is there any indication that knowing he won't have revenue that he will want to dramatically increase his spend?

Ottawa seems to want to be competitive though.  Why pay Dadonov 15M if they don't intend to be competitive over those 3 years - it's just throwing money away.  If they want to tank another 2 years they could have just skipped making that deal.  

 

Back in May Melnyk was saying that their intention is to make the playoffs this coming season.  Doesn't look like they want to take on bad contracts.  He has said that he would spend up to the cap once he feels the team is ready to take the next step.  He talks of having a lot of their prospects in the lineup this coming season with the intention to be legit contenders in a few years.  The tanking days look to be over - they are looking to climb up the standings per his interview.  

[Vinny in Vancouver]

52 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

He might be trying to get out of there too by using this tactic. 
If Ottawa walks away from this, can he sign elsewhere for less?

Like... Toronto? 

I thought that once you go to arbitration that the team is no longer able to walk away from the ruling?