J.I.A.H.N Posted October 22, 2020 Author Share Posted October 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, mll said: You have Ferland on LTIR? If Ferland goes on LTIR the bonus automatically gets pushed into 2021/22. Teams can't bank cap space when they are in LTIR - ie there's no cap space accrued to pay out the bonuses so it automatically gets carried over. If he goes on LTIR and you use up the full cap space it will make it harder to recall some players or add Podkolzin mid-season. In LTIR the bonuses need to be covered in a recall or an add to the roster after the start of the season. There's no banked cap space so they need the full cap hit + the bonus to be available. I yield to your knowledge My eyes are spinning Does that mean....no, or does it mean yes we can but shouldn't I am still reading this as we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad_BOI_pete Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, mll said: PDO is a measure of luck. A PDO above 100 suggests a risk of regression as the player got lucky. Timmins, the founder of the site Natural Stat Trick, says that zone starts matter far less than what people think. Zone starts doesn't really measure quality of competition. When Gaudette starts in the o-zone - his opponent gets a d-zone start. When Pettersson starts in the d-zone - his opponent gets an o-zone start. The opponent that draws Gaudette in their d-zone probably has an easier case than the opponent that draws the Pettersson line in their o-zone. Also zone starts is a ratio - it ignores neutral zone starts and starts on the fly. Natural Stat Trick shows Beagle with 280 d-zone starts at 5v5 vs 617 on the fly or in the neutral zone. Horvat had 450 d-zone starts ie 170 more than Beagle but in 14 more games. The website PuckIQ seems to be used pretty widely by analytics writers to define quality of competition: http://www.puckiq.com They try to measure quality of competition based on ice ice-time, point production and two-way impact. They've divided players in 3 category - elite, mid-tier and low tier. They have about 60 players in the elite category. They break down player's ice time to see how much time they spend against each tier. No forward on the Canucks spends more time against elite competition than Horvat. He is in the 98th percentile of all players. Sutter was actually in a sheltered role this year - it was by design as explained by Green at training camp. He explained that he wanted to create a 3rd scoring line and felt that giving Sutter easier matchups would allow him to score more than the strong shutdown role he had in the past. Sutter is in the 13th percentile and Gaudette, one of the most sheltered players in the league, is in the 2nd percentile of TOI vs elite competition. Thank you, i have been looking for this website for a while now. can you help explain what some stats on puckiq refer too? dff? and gritensity toi? pdo is a measurement of on ice shooting percentage + On ice save %. over your career if you have a good pdo and start mainly in the defensive end, your playing well against your competition. over time all stats will prove valuable. eakin had similar quality of competition based on ice time, vs sutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcam Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, janisahockeynut said: Jake Virtanen (estimate $2,750,000 X?) + Brandon Sutter ($4,375,000 X1) + Rafferty ................Out :$7,125,000 for Cody Eakin ($2,250,000 X2) + Colin Miller ($3,875,000 X2) + 2021 4th................Out: $6,125,000 Why Vancouver does this.................Gains another RHD, who has successfully played with Schmidt, and with Edler leaving next year, this allows Schmidt to move to the left side. Vancouver also gains Cody Eakin, who is a much better 3rd line center than Gaudette or Sutter. Why Buffalo does this. Buffalo is in a retool/rebuild, which is only partly done, because Eichel wants to win now...this makes Buffalo a little better, and shows Eichel they are trying Miller Pettersson Gaudette Hughes Schmidt Demko Pearson Horvat Boeser Edler Miller Holtby Motte Eakin MacEwen Juolevi Myers Rousell Beagle Bailey Rathbone Hawryluk Eriksson and Baertschi in the minors Ferland LTIR Didn't Miller have serious knee injury?? No would rather keep Jake, Gaudette has more offence then Eakin.. If we are going to move Jake would rather move him for younger D man under 26 with some upside... Edited October 22, 2020 by wildcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 29 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said: I yield to your knowledge My eyes are spinning Does that mean....no, or does it mean yes we can but shouldn't I am still reading this as we can It would be best to try and avoid using LTIR. If there's no choice should try and keep cap space to allow some roster flexibility for recalls. Bonuses will still automatically be carried over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, janisahockeynut said: I am actually pretty sure we did it ourselves back in the day.....cant remember the player Closest was Sturm and that's because he sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, Petey_BOI said: Thank you, i have been looking for this website for a while now. can you help explain what some stats on puckiq refer too? dff? and gritensity toi? pdo is a measurement of on ice shooting percentage + On ice save %. over your career if you have a good pdo and start mainly in the defensive end, your playing well against your competition. over time all stats will prove valuable. eakin had similar quality of competition based on ice time, vs sutter. Gritensity is the labelling of their lowest tier. They've categorised players in 3 tiers based on a combination of TOI, production and two-way play. They explain how they've defined the tiers and metrics used to classify players here: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html DFF is dangerous Fenwick for. Fenwick being unblocked shot attempts. Most terms should be in the glossary - link at the top their website. They define dangerous Fenwick as: Weighted shot metric using shot distance location and type of shot to give each shot a "danger" value. If you go to the Vancouver chart section and select "elite" in competition and toggle between dates, you can see how usage has changed over the years re Sutter taking on a different role this year but also Pettersson taking on tougher matchups - the Y axis shows competition. Green talks of how it's the next step for him and how Pettersson wants that challenge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad_BOI_pete Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 minute ago, mll said: Gritensity is the labelling of their lowest tier. They've categorised players in 3 tiers based on a combination of TOI, production and two-way play. They explain how they've defined the tiers and metrics used to classify players here: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html DFF is dangerous Fenwick for. Fenwick being unblocked shot attempts. Most terms should be in the glossary - link at the top their website. They define dangerous Fenwick as: Weighted shot metric using shot distance location and type of shot to give each shot a "danger" value. If you go to the Vancouver chart section and select "elite" in competition and toggle between dates, you can see how usage has changed over the years re Sutter taking on a different role this year but also Pettersson taking on tougher matchups - the Y axis shows competition. Green talks of how it's the next step for him and how Pettersson wants that challenge. thank you, between these posts i found the glossary, but nothing on gritensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Petey_BOI said: thank you, between these posts i found the glossary, but nothing on gritensity. It's in the link: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html Here's a cut and paste - the post was written back in 2016 to explain their filtering. Quote THE THREE METRICS WE USED TO FIND THE GRITENSITY PLAYERS AMONG NHL PLAYERSNow that we have an elite list, we need to separate out the worst players from the "mushy middle" as well since most everyone does well against them and they can inflate a player's metrics.Unlike the Elite metrics, this is not a “filtering" process. To be elite you had to pass through 4 tough filters and come out the other side.To be a "Gritensity" you only have to qualify once and you're in.1) All players who played at least 20 games in the sample and was bottom 16.7 percentile (~-1SD) in Relative CorsiWe require at least 20gp so that the sample size for the RelCor is adequate enough for it to have some validity. At that point if you're among the worst, you're among the worst.This gave us 79 names. 2) All players who's points per 60 were in the bottom 16.7% percentile. (~-1SD)If you do not score, you probably don't win the goal share battle and do not contribute to winning.This gave us 133 names3) All players in the bottom 10% of Time On Ice per game.If the coach won't play you, he probably doesn't hate you but thinks you're not good or a raw rookie or both and he's probably right.This gave us 160 names.Total Gritensity players = 231 namesWait!! But 79+133+160 is 372 names? What gives?Well, many of these players show up on each list, but we only count them once.Many of these players are AHL call-ups and guys getting a cup of coffee in the NHL.Only 64 of the 213 played over 100 games in the last two years. Interesting fact: 60 of those 64 had been signed to a contract by Steve Tambellini, Craig MacTavish, or Peter Chiarelli at some point in their career. (note: this is not true, but given enough time, would be imo) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad_BOI_pete Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, mll said: It's in the link: https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html Here's a cut and paste - the post was written back in 2016 to explain their filtering. thanks again. i was looking and our team on whole (Except jt miller,boeser, EP roussel and sutter)got outscored against gritensity players, maybe just some bad luck? edit. does not include defenceman Edited October 22, 2020 by Petey_BOI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 8 hours ago, mll said: It would be best to try and avoid using LTIR. If there's no choice should try and keep cap space to allow some roster flexibility for recalls. Bonuses will still automatically be carried over. Does Ferland even provide enough LTIR space to be very useful given the issues you point out with how moves are calculated? We've seen other teams use it but they also had a lot more in LTIR, like TO last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 12 hours ago, janisahockeynut said: Jake Virtanen (estimate $2,750,000 X?) + Brandon Sutter ($4,375,000 X1) + Rafferty ................Out :$7,125,000 for Cody Eakin ($2,250,000 X2) + Colin Miller ($3,875,000 X2) + 2021 4th................Out: $6,125,000 I do like the idea of something involving Jake and a right side d. Maybe we can squeeze a little more out of Buffalo, like a prospect or a 3rd or 4th back our way since Jake probably has more trade value than Miller 1:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 10 hours ago, janisahockeynut said: Because they want the younger Virtanen It is not like it never happens Pretty sure it never happens. Signing a guy then a few weeks later trading them. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 37 minutes ago, Robert Long said: Does Ferland even provide enough LTIR space to be very useful given the issues you point out with how moves are calculated? We've seen other teams use it but they also had a lot more in LTIR, like TO last year. If Ferland can't play they will likely have to tap into LTIR. Don't think they would be able to function on a salary cap of 78M - it's the limit to avoid LTIR as Ferland fills up the remaining 3.5M. If they know beforehand that Ferland will go on LTIR, they can use up part of his cap space in the off-season but probably shouldn't use up the full 3.5M or they could have recall issues. Toronto had kept cap space to sign Marner. Horton was about a 5M contract. They needed full relief on his contract + the cap space they had kept to sign Marner. They couldn't get a contract done and there was a risk it could drag into the season. Adding Clarkson was necessary for them to be able to sign Marner if it went into the regular season. LTIR only gives relief for the amount necessary to stay cap compliant. Without Marner they only needed a minimal portion of Horton's LTIR cap space to be cap compliant. They wouldn't have been able to sign Marner after the start of the season as the 4-5M in cap space they had kept would have been filled by the Horton contract. They would have lost the space they had kept to sign him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 17 minutes ago, mll said: If Ferland can't play they will likely have to tap into LTIR. Don't think they would be able to function on a salary cap of 78M - it's the limit to avoid LTIR as Ferland fills up the remaining 3.5M. If they know beforehand that Ferland will go on LTIR, they can use up part of his cap space in the off-season but probably shouldn't use up the full 3.5M or they could have recall issues. Toronto had kept cap space to sign Marner. Horton was about a 5M contract. They needed full relief on his contract + the cap space they had kept to sign Marner. They couldn't get a contract done and there was a risk it could drag into the season. Adding Clarkson was necessary for them to be able to sign Marner if it went into the regular season. LTIR only gives relief for the amount necessary to stay cap compliant. Without Marner they only needed a minimal portion of Horton's LTIR cap space to be cap compliant. They wouldn't have been able to sign Marner after the start of the season as the 4-5M in cap space they had kept would have been filled by the Horton contract. They would have lost the space they had kept to sign him. thats a good explanation. It shows its not as simple as "yay we have 3.5 mil" in cap with Ferlands situation. For me,I really hope Ferland can play, he'd bring as much or close to what Toffoli would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 It’s a nice idea in theory, but gambling on Gaudette to play in a top 6 role is an even bigger risk than Jake. Pass for me. At this stage, I think Benning and other teams will see how the UFA landscape plays out and will make more decisions once all/most teams have a better understanding of their cap (ie which core players have been signed, and to what term, and who can they take on for an extra year). I still think Baertschi is very moveable at 50% retention once teams have all of their core players signed and are looking to take a chance on a youngish guy that could still push for a top 6 position. Ferland will try and play next season, but I also think that he’s likely done. Sutter and Benn are moveable contracts as well, but I think both guys will be kept. Sutter Incase Gaudette can’t take ownership of the 3rd line C role, and Benn as the veteran defensive presence on the backend to help Juolevi (or Rathbone) acclimate (Michael Jackson theory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazurus Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 (edited) Buffalo could be a good trading partner BUT Any deal has to be of the blockbuster level. The NEED to show Eichel they are serious for the future, he has seen many bandaids already They HAVE a couple of defencemen they could move The NEED to stir up the market. The Canucks NEED to get a handle on their money problems, not just this year but the next 3 years. The Canucks NEED NHL defencemen The Canucks are forced into a re-tooling The Canucks NEED more than 4 players under 24 that are regular players. Buffalo NEEDs to improve their PP Buffalo NEEDs another young goal scorer A blockbuster, both sides will shake their heads but both could get what they NEED now. My favorite trade Brock and Quinn for Dahlin and picks. Edited October 27, 2020 by Lazurus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teepain Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Boeser gaudette myers dahlin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vannuck59 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 10/21/2020 at 11:21 PM, janisahockeynut said: Because they want the younger Virtanen It is not like it never happens I'm in if it was for Ristolainen instead of Miller but Buffalo says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazurus Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, teepain said: Boeser gaudette myers dahlin Boeser Hughes 2nd rnd pick Dahlin Cozens 3rd rnd pick Edited November 17, 2020 by Lazurus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Lazurus said: Boeser Hughes 2nd rnd pick Dahlin Cozens 3rd rnd pick Buffalo views this as a downgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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