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Knowing what you know now, what would you have done at the TDL if you were GM (Discussion)


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This is strictly a discussion piece to take us further into November.........

 

But, knowing what you know now (today), what would you have done last TDL? Keep in mind, Markstrom, Tanev, Toffoli, Stecher, and Leivo have all signed somewhere else............

 

Personally, as much as I liked the playoffs , I looking back would have traded the lot, for picks.

 

IMO, we could have gotten a haul, and they may have not all landed in Calgary.......................

 

Imagine what 

 

Markstrom at 50% would return

Tanev at 50% would have returned

and Toffoli had returned at 50%

 

IMO, we would have secured some great draft picks , had a top 10 pick of our own, and most likely have traded Eriksson along with some of those picks, later in the year.............

 

Not to mention the freed up cap, that would have allowed us to sign a UFA on a cheap contract

 

In my opinion, it would have been a real pay forward moment!

 

 

Edited by janisahockeynut
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There's no benefit at all to this kind of hindsight what ifs.

 

Some of these decisions aren't even able to be made without what we learned from the playoffs (like that Demko is able to step up).

 

Also making all these moves at the TDL (basically being full on sellers) is not something a team close to a playoff spot for the first time in 5 years would do. It's not realistic. Say Buffalo is close to a playoff spot at the next TDL. They haven't made the playoffs in 9 years. They would not become sellers just because of all the draft picks they could get. If anything, they'd be buyers to try to assure themselves of the playoffs.

 

Also Markstrom was injured at the time of the TDL. Which team in need of a starting goalie, trades for an injured one, on an expiring contract becoming a UFA, at the TDL?

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So hold up - we weren't gonna do what we did at the TDL but still somehow managed to trade away Toffoli?

 

All silliness aside, yes, I like what Benning did.

We had a great run, played above our heads and gave ourselves some swagger for the future.

Even if we take a step back this year (which I think is likely), they'll still remember this run in future years.

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I know giving up so much for only a cup of coffee for Toffoli was an expensive move, but I’d honestly do it all over again knowing what I know now.

 

The presence of Toffoli allowed us to win a few games that we otherwise might not have, and this ultimately helped us make the play-ins, which ultimately helped us come within a game of the 3rd round.

 

The presence of Markstrom and Tanev did the same.  
 

So yes - could we have gotten some good assets in return for Markstrom and Tanev, while preserving the assets lost in the Toffoli deal?  Absolutely.   However, I am of the belief that growth and enthusiasm involved in making R2 GM 7 for the organization, is far more beneficial than the assets that we lost.  Guys like Horvat, Pettersson, Boeser, etc., all received valuable playoff experience and growth which is absolutely essential for player growth.  
 

I wouldn’t change anything.   Benning did things the correct way.

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53 minutes ago, smithers joe said:

i still don’t know anything. no experience at gm’ing at the nhl level.  i would be called the nhl’s worst ever gm. i’ll stick on this side of the computer. safer for us all. 

I’d make Mike Milbury look like Scotty Bowman.  :-(

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I would not have traded for Toffoli since he only ended playing 10 regular season games and 7 Playoff games for us. We won 2 rounds without him. Therefore we keep Madden, Schaller and our 2nd. 

 

Then this offseason, Madden and that 2nd could be used to offload a contract. Maybe attached to Eriksson or possibly Roussel or Beagle. 

 

So essentially we end up at the same point we are at now, but we shed one bad contract. 

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So, most people think the playoff experience was invaluable, but really, how much experience did we have going into the playoffs?

I would say, not much, and yet we did very good. So with saying that......I ask

 

1. How valuable was the teams veterans playoff experience? 

Truth was, it was Motte, Horvat, Demko, Hughes and Pettersson that most of the heavy lifting......How much experience did these guys have?

 

2. What would the returns of these veterans be worth at the TDL? Feb 24th, 2020

 

Markstrom at 50%

Robin Lehner..................Malcolm Subban + Slava Demin + 2020 2nd

 

Tanev at 50%.............

Erik Gusafsson................2020 3rd

Alec Martinez...................2020 2nd + 2021 2nd

Marco Scandella .............2020 2nd and a conditional 4th

Brendon Dillion................2020 2nd and a conditional 3rd

Dylan DeMelo..................2020 3rd

Andy Greene...................2021 2nd + David Quenneville

 

Toffoli at 50%...................we know a teams top 5 prospect and a 2nd

 

So we walk away with, a Madden type prospect, a couple of B grade prospects  +  4 - 2nd round picks...and that is without any cap retention or something equivalent

 

and quite Possibly our 2020 1st, which would have been a 8, 9, or 10th....aka......Jack Quinn, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti or Yaroslav Askarov

 

So is that worth a couple of rounds of Playoff experience?

 

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1 hour ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

I would not have traded for Toffoli since he only ended playing 10 regular season games and 7 Playoff games for us. We won 2 rounds without him. Therefore we keep Madden, Schaller and our 2nd. 

 

Then this offseason, Madden and that 2nd could be used to offload a contract. Maybe attached to Eriksson or possibly Roussel or Beagle. 

 

So essentially we end up at the same point we are at now, but we shed one bad contract. 

But maybe without Toffoli's 10 games we don't make the playins ???? But I guess now we know........point taken!

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1 hour ago, janisahockeynut said:

So, most people think the playoff experience was invaluable, but really, how much experience did we have going into the playoffs?

I would say, not much, and yet we did very good. So with saying that......I ask

 

1. How valuable was the teams veterans playoff experience? 

Truth was, it was Motte, Horvat, Demko, Hughes and Pettersson that most of the heavy lifting......How much experience did these guys have?

 

2. What would the returns of these veterans be worth at the TDL? Feb 24th, 2020

 

Markstrom at 50%

Robin Lehner..................Malcolm Subban + Slava Demin + 2020 2nd

 

Tanev at 50%.............

Erik Gusafsson................2020 3rd

Alec Martinez...................2020 2nd + 2021 2nd

Marco Scandella .............2020 2nd and a conditional 4th

Brendon Dillion................2020 2nd and a conditional 3rd

Dylan DeMelo..................2020 3rd

Andy Greene...................2021 2nd + David Quenneville

 

Toffoli at 50%...................we know a teams top 5 prospect and a 2nd

 

So we walk away with, a Madden type prospect, a couple of B grade prospects  +  4 - 2nd round picks...and that is without any cap retention or something equivalent

 

and quite Possibly our 2020 1st, which would have been a 8, 9, or 10th....aka......Jack Quinn, Marco Rossi, Cole Perfetti or Yaroslav Askarov

 

So is that worth a couple of rounds of Playoff experience?

 

Yes, that is absolutely worth a couple of rounds of playoff experience in my opinion.   If you go year after year of missing the playoffs, your core starts to rot, and so any attempt at filling the bucket with incoming prospects becomes akin to filling a leaking bucket with water.   #Oilers #Sabres

 

Losing picks and prospects in the Miller and Toffoli deals sucks, but Benning hasn’t gone overboard in this regard.  Hence, one of the reasons why he hasn’t used prospects/picks as sweeteners in this off season to unload bad contracts (which may have been something that I would have been inclined to do since I’m an impatient bastard.  :-p).   Benning has found a happy medium, and we still have a very healthy pipeline.

 

With regards to playoff experience and a new emerging core, there are players out there that now want to come here.   Holtby for example.  Hoffman is reportedly very interested in coming here as well.  
 

Our good young core + our surprise 2nd round game 7 appearance = good UFA’s starting to take note of the “emerging” Canucks and wanting to play with us at more favorable terms and money (from a Canucks management perspective).

Edited by DarkIndianRises
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12 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

Yes, that is absolutely worth a couple of rounds of playoff experience in my opinion.   If you go year after year of missing the playoffs, your core starts to rot, and so any attempt at filling the bucket with incoming prospects becomes akin to filling a leaking bucket with water.   #Oilers #Sabres

 

Losing picks and prospects in the Miller and Toffoli deals sucks, but Benning hasn’t gone overboard in this regard.  Hence, one of the reasons why he hasn’t used prospects/picks as sweeteners in this off season to unload bad contracts (which may have been something that I would have been inclined to do since I’m an impatient bastard.  :-p).   Benning has found a happy medium, and we still have a very healthy pipeline.

 

With regards to playoff experience and a new emerging core, there are players out there that now want to come here.   Holtby for example.  Hoffman is reportedly very interested in coming here as well.  
 

Our good young core + our surprise 2nd round game 7 appearance = good UFA’s starting to take note of the “emerging” Canucks and wanting to play with us at more favorable terms and money (from a Canucks management perspective).

Here us the thing.........Benning, me, you and everyone else knew we would be in Cap Hell, and absolutely no way to get out of it without giving up something, so is it such a great win, when you back to loosing ways, right after a winning season?

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6 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Here us the thing.........Benning, me, you and everyone else knew we would be in Cap Hell, and absolutely no way to get out of it without giving up something, so is it such a great win, when you back to loosing ways, right after a winning season?

But are the Canucks really in cap hell right NOW?   I don’t think so.   We are 1.5 million over, but that can and will easily change without having to add in sweeteners to get rid of prospects.   
 

I still think our team will be much better than people are giving credit.  Our RW is pretty much the same as when last season started (Boeser, Eriksson, Virtanen).  McEwen and Leivo are pretty much a wash.  
 

Schmidt is a massive upgrade over Tanev, while Holtby is likely an upgrade over 2019 Demko.   I am of the opinion that 2020 Demko isn’t all that far behind Markstrom if those three play off games were of any indication.

 

Lastly - Michael Ferland.   
 

Either Ferland will come back healthy and be a solid player for us (something that we didn’t have last season), OR, he will get injured again, LTIR or retire, which will give us some cap space to do something. 
 

At the end of this season, many bad/transitional contracts will come off the books, and Eriksson will likely be moveable at this point (Marc Staal comparable).  

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2 minutes ago, DarkIndianRises said:

But are the Canucks really in cap hell right NOW?   I don’t think so.   We are 1.5 million over, but that can and will easily change without having to add in sweeteners to get rid of prospects.   
 

I still think our team will be much better than people are giving credit.  Our RW is pretty much the same as when last season started (Boeser, Eriksson, Virtanen).  McEwen and Leivo are pretty much a wash.  
 

Schmidt is a massive upgrade over Tanev, while Holtby is likely an upgrade over 2019 Demko.   I am of the opinion that 2020 Demko isn’t all that far behind Markstrom if those three play off games were of any indication.

 

Lastly - Michael Ferland.   
 

Either Ferland will come back healthy and be a solid player for us (something that we didn’t have last season), OR, he will get injured again, LTIR or retire, which will give us some cap space to do something. 
 

At the end of this season, many bad/transitional contracts will come off the books, and Eriksson will likely be moveable at this point (Marc Staal comparable).  

Well, that is the half full version.........

But there is no Troffoli

Schmidt is a better offensive player, yes, but a worse defensive player, and that was with a stacked Vegas team

Demko is not Markstrom yet, but lets hope you are right

and Stecher is not here with his +11 plus/minus

and did you see Holtby's numbers on a stacked Washington team last year?

Ferland also may play a very different game to stay healthy......thing a younger Eriksson

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31 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Well, that is the half full version.........

But there is no Troffoli

Schmidt is a better offensive player, yes, but a worse defensive player, and that was with a stacked Vegas team

Demko is not Markstrom yet, but lets hope you are right

and Stecher is not here with his +11 plus/minus

and did you see Holtby's numbers on a stacked Washington team last year?

Ferland also may play a very different game to stay healthy......thing a younger Eriksson

There was no Toffoli last year either for most of the year and the Canucks managed just fine.   What was their record before acquiring Toffoli?

 

Schmidt is marginally inferior to Tanev on the defensive side of things but is VASTLY superior on the offensive side of things.

 

Holtby will have Ian Clark to help him out, and will still likely be an upgrade over our back up from last year (Demko 2019).  
 

I can’t see Ferland playing a safe and healthy way.  Look at what he did in the bubble on his first shift!  :-p.  
 

Guys like Juolevi and Benn won’t be that far off from Stecher imo.  Put Benn on his natural right side and he’ll do what Stecher did.

 

The way Demko played in those three playoff games - rewatch the tapes if possible and look at Demko’s technique.  That was pure talent.  This wasn’t Billington or Matt Murray playing out of their minds being sheltered by a beastly elite team in front.......this was Demko being an integral part of our wins, going up against a team that was much better than ours.   Yes, the Canucks collapsed around the net to help Demko, but Demko played a big role as well.

 

Demko may not be as far behind Markstrom as many people might think. 

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So you’re wondering what they could have traded Toffoli for at the trade deadline? The same Toffoli that they acquired days before the deadline?   I understand speculating on what could have been. But if the Canucks had been in sell mode at the deadline they never would have acquired Toffoli to begin with. 

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I'd rather we inspect in hindsight whether Roussel/ Beagle/ Baertschi/ Sutter were worth signing at their respective costs.

Baertschi was showing signs in 2017-18 of being a top-6 option (14 goals, 29 points in 53 games = 21 goals, 44.8 points over 82 games; next season he played 26 games only but still put up above a 1/2 point per game, 14 points)

Roussel: after Vanek was traded to Columbus for Jussi Jokinen, the team needed LW depth as Sedin was getting older.  While three years and NTC are not optimal, in hindsight we don't know if he would have agreed to sign without those conditions.  He also put up top-6 caliber totals (31 points in 65 games) and played on 2nd line with Horvat at times.

It maybe the same for Beagle, who put up 22 points in 79 games and was a key PK contributor to the champion Capitals.  Would he have joined if Benning didn't sign him to that?  We may never know, but the year before he signed the depth at C was terrible (Hank was declining, Bo hadn't developed yet and besides Sutter and a -18 Sam Gagner the team's best options at C were Granlund (-10, 12 points in 58 games)/ Gaunce (only 6 points, never developed his potential)/ Burmistrov (6 points, -5 in 24 games)/ Nic Dowd (3 points, -7 in 40 games)/ Gaudette (0 points in 5)/ coach's favorite Michael Chaput (-4, no points in 9).  The team clearly needed the depth.

Probably toughest to justify re-upping Sutter (not going to try with Loui's contract) but he also filled a need and was a defensive buffer for Bo so he didn't take on prime defensive assignments.  9 points in 20 games, then 34 in 81 and 26 in 61 (again around 34 points in a full season) are pretty good for a 3rd line center, though his issue was staying healthy.  For around a million dollars cheaper it would still have been worth the signing.

In short, for all the hate Benning gets, in their contexts the signings that "bog us down" now definitely had a purpose when they were signed.  Without throwing money at Roussel and Beagle, for instance, we would have been as barren as last year's Red Wings.

Edited by Phil_314
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13 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

I think you guys are taking this too seriously.....it just a discussion.........

 

FM...............it truly does sound like you are NHL GM's

Ok I will play.  Let’s take TT out of the mix - that would be a little too much, trading for him and then trading him again a week or so later, he basically was a deadline acquisition.    And let’s decide that he wouldn’t get completely murdered by every media expert out there (well maybe a few would clue into it right away but most wouldn’t), Tanev as a rental would get us a late first, Markstrom maybe the same too, given what other rental goalies have got in the past even with his epic season it wouldn’t be a top ten pick.    Schneider was a top five RFA goalie under contract for several years when he was traded, posting insane stats including a club record sub 2.00 GAA...and it happens to be one of the best hauls ever for a goalie as a ninth overall.   Roy’s trade was ok but not spectacular when it truly should have been.   Think Carry Price before his 10 million dollar contract and when he was a top goalie or arguably player in the world getting traded at his peak - fresh off a cup.. that’s what Roy was and  a promising back-up plus some fillers is all they got in return.  So again maybe a mid-late first.   Also just for educational purposes, 25th and past work out percentage wise the same as second rounders do - and there is no significant difference in just picking 32 or 62 - in other words second rounders work out about the same no matter where they are picked in the second round- based on a study of the past decade only mind you.   Sounds nice to get a late first but really it’s not much different then a second rounder.  
 

So maybe we’d get the equivalent of a couple second rounders.   I wouldn’t trade that for 17 playoff games and the experience the guys got from it.    Or the fun and excellent distraction it was for us fans given the times we are in.    Missing the playoffs four years in a row .... 

 

One thing I will say is that JB was either lucky or smart like a fox.   Was hoping he’d let them all walk and then jump on a deal or two next off-season by saving some cap for later - he exceeded my expectations by weaponizing it this year with Schmidt.   Holtby isn’t that much worse then Markstrom, he’s certainly enjoyed a long successful career including Vezina trophy, a cup and tying the all time record for wins in a season.   Yes he’s slipping the past couple of years - he’s already being tutored by the best or one of the best in the business in Korn, now he gets to do it with another best in the business in Clark and he choose Vancouver in part because of that.   
 

It’s a fun exercise like you said if you don’t take it too seriously.    But I could pick a few other seasons to play with before this one,  given the three rounds we played in and all of the cool memories and storylines from it - would have to be 3 lottery tickets before I’d start wanting to consider trading it for something else.   TT cost a second, possibly a third if we signed him and our best C prospect in Madden.   That’s easily a mid-round first payment.   And not many people seemed that upset about it calling it a fair deal or even a great one.   Because it meant playoffs were much more likely. 

 

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8 hours ago, Phil_314 said:

I'd rather we inspect in hindsight whether Roussel/ Beagle/ Baertschi/ Sutter were worth signing at their respective costs.

Baertschi was showing signs in 2017-18 of being a top-6 option (14 goals, 29 points in 53 games = 21 goals, 44.8 points over 82 games; next season he played 26 games only but still put up above a 1/2 point per game, 14 points)

Roussel: after Vanek was traded to Columbus for Jussi Jokinen, the team needed LW depth as Sedin was getting older.  While three years and NTC are not optimal, in hindsight we don't know if he would have agreed to sign without those conditions.  He also put up top-6 caliber totals (31 points in 65 games) and played on 2nd line with Horvat at times.

It maybe the same for Beagle, who put up 22 points in 79 games and was a key PK contributor to the champion Capitals.  Would he have joined if Benning didn't sign him to that?  We may never know, but the year before he signed the depth at C was terrible (Hank was declining, Bo hadn't developed yet and besides Sutter and a -18 Sam Gagner the team's best options at C were Granlund (-10, 12 points in 58 games)/ Gaunce (only 6 points, never developed his potential)/ Burmistrov (6 points, -5 in 24 games)/ Nic Dowd (3 points, -7 in 40 games)/ Gaudette (0 points in 5)/ coach's favorite Michael Chaput (-4, no points in 9).  The team clearly needed the depth.

Probably toughest to justify re-upping Sutter (not going to try with Loui's contract) but he also filled a need and was a defensive buffer for Bo so he didn't take on prime defensive assignments.  9 points in 20 games, then 34 in 81 and 26 in 61 (again around 34 points in a full season) are pretty good for a 3rd line center, though his issue was staying healthy.  For around a million dollars cheaper it would still have been worth the signing.

In short, for all the hate Benning gets, in their contexts the signings that "bog us down" now definitely had a purpose when they were signed.  Without throwing money at Roussel and Beagle, for instance, we would have been as barren as last year's Red Wings.

Really I don’t think many people actually don’t like these players - I do - it came down to the length that screwed our chances to go for it while EP and QHs are still on their ELCs.   Just one year difference on all these contracts, including LE, would have made a world of difference.   Doubt even they thought EP was going to be that good that early, the entire league slept or missed on that - ever single expert scouting report I read and media experts felt he was going to take some time, and not many had him as a shoe in first line player.  One year later expectations were higher for sure but even after his epic SHL season there was still a lot of doubt whether he could do it.   His picture singing his first contract says it all, my 15 year old daughter’s pipes area about the same ha ha.

 

Same could be said for Hughes.  Too small for a “real number one” going to get murdered that’s a small body and all of that.   Figure JB and Co structured their contracts to expire one year off.   That said they did sign them to their ELCs - and they did try them out ... and ultimately it’s on them for doing so.  
 

Almost impossible to win a cup in that “pre-window window “ stage.   CHI did on Toews third year.   We’ve already surpassed every other team in playoff games played other then them and maybe you could say CAR too ... CAR did win a cup with Ward and Staal on their ELCs too,  but they had a load of guys from their previous run to the final still so it’s not really the same thing (since the cap came).   We won more then EDM did, and TO... and media types were even calling us CHI 2009 2.0...and you all know what happened in 2010.    
 

We still have another crack at it.   Maybe we can clear Bear and trade Roussel and add one more top six guy.   If the cost is palatable that would be ok.   We’ve just enjoyed three Calder finalists in a row - can we make it four with OJ?  You just never know but think that run is done ... although Podz might have something to say about that a year from now and make it 4 out of 5 years.  
 

There have been few times the past 40 years where I’ve actually been excited about the Canucks future the same way I am now.   The early Linden teams for sure...when we got Mogilny absolutely over the moon - best team we’ve ever had on paper.   When the West Coast Express was the best line in hockey.   When we traded for Luongo (said at the time we can now finallly win a cup), when the Sedins and Kesler were top players at their positions ... and right now.    That’s not a lot all things considered but I will take it.   Our actual window opens wider once this cap sheds and the remainder of our pool starts filtering in.   We won’t have to rely on placeholders much longer - that said we will have to replace some of them with cheaper options.   Won’t be easy getting the same quality for Beagle and Roussel at 50% of their current costs - Sutter probably is doable at 2.25...

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