[specualtion] 2023 entry draft, the big one, really big

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Lazurus said:

They didn't wait too long in their evaluation of competitiveness, they retooled or rebulit again and ended up with more picks, prospects and more core players. It was a bold move but now the most important players on the team are mostly under 25, Kadri, at 29 yrs, is the old man. If you look back into antiquity, this is similar to some of the Canadiens great teams and Edmonton at first, even Pittsburgh and Chicago, all the multiple cup winners are all close in age and mostly under 25 yrs. 

True but look at when McKinnon and Landeskog, Barrie and Duchene were drafted.   Feel it’s a bit pre-mature to give up on what we have, McKinnon was also a Calder winner but took several years to break out to another level, Landeskog is in his mid prime right now. Barrie and Duchene when they were traded were a few years past Horvat and Boeser are now.   Yes it worked out great for them.   A lot of of that has to do with McKinnon (now the second, some say the first best C in the game) getting signed before he broke out - and the league had changed since then.   Nobody is getting a deal like that on their up and coming guys including us.  
 

Edit:  And when I look back I can’t go past the cap era.  We won’t ever see anything like the late 70’s or even mid 80’s MTL teams again.  Definitely not the EDM dynasty or the NYI one.   The bar set in the cap era is CHI.    So tough to do - take the cap away and it still would be extremely difficult with 32 teams.    Every team starts at zero to start the year - but it was no surprise that 3/4 conference finalists this year have a distinct 10-15% tax cap advantage over the rest.   Thats a bone I won’t stop picking until it’s corrected.   TB, Vegas and Dallas are the new Detroit, NYR and TO (rich teams that pre-cap out spent everyone).    It hasn’t become an issue (yet) because until last year the finalists were from all sorts of tax brackets.   But seriously, when JT Miller is traded for a first and Tyler Johnson is buried in the minors maybe it’s time to make this and issue.   Also F!ck Vegas. 

Edited November 14, 2020 by IBatch

[Lazurus]

12 minutes ago, IBatch said:

True but look at when McKinnon and Landeskog, Barrie and Duchene were drafted.   Feel it’s a bit pre-mature to give up on what we have, McKinnon was also a Calder winner but took several years to break out to another level, Landeskog is in his mid prime right now. Barrie and Duchene when they were traded were a few years past Horvat and Boeser are now.   Yes it worked out great for them.   A lot of of that has to do with McKinnon (now the second, some say the first best C in the game) getting signed before he broke out - and the league had changed since then.   Nobody is getting a deal like that on their up and coming guys including us.  
 

Edit:  And when I look back I can’t go past the cap era.  We won’t ever see anything like the late 70’s or even mid 80’s MTL teams again.  Definitely not the EDM dynasty or the NYI one.   The bar set in the cap era is CHI.    So tough to do - take the cap away and it still would be extremely difficult with 32 teams.    Every team starts at zero to start the year - but it was no surprise that 3/4 conference finalists this year have a distinct 10-15% tax cap advantage over the rest.   Thats a bone I won’t stop picking until it’s corrected.   TB, Vegas and Dallas are the new Detroit, NYR and TO (rich teams that pre-cap out spent everyone).    It hasn’t become an issue (yet) because until last year the finalists were from all sorts of tax brackets.   But seriously, when JT Miller is traded for a first and Tyler Johnson is buried in the minors maybe it’s time to make this and issue.   Also F!ck Vegas. 

Ya, It does seem a team needs to get top three picks to be highly competitive. Picking late definitely causes trouble for teams eventually especially the top teams

 

 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Lazurus said:

Ya, It does seem a team needs to get top three picks to be highly competitive. Picking late definitely causes trouble for teams eventually especially the top teams

 

 

Picking early only works if you get the best players and all drafts don’t work out the same...EP is so far a top player - same with Makar and IMO his stiffest competition Heiskanen - but Patrick and Hirschier the consensus guys are lacking, falling away from the pack.   Hughes draft looks like we also picked near the top...

 

Malkin, MAF, Letang and of course the “McDavid” of his time - Crosby definitely set them on a cup path.   But Crosby types don’t come by very often.   Luck more then anything in your cycle to grab one of those guys.   Overall I’m pretty happy with who we got, and would include Podz in that mix.   A consensus top three guy who fell all the way to us.  Lucky break for sure - but given how many spots we slipped over a four year period seems like karma to me.   
 

OJ was definitely a miss, but he still points towards a bottom pairing floor player.   And if he was a big hit who knows who’d we have ended up with.  Overall we’ve done pretty good.  No team ever had accrued as many high picks as EDM did over a 7 year span and they aren’t a contender.   All because they can’t buy a player past the first round - and even some of them haven’t worked out (Yakupov 1, Puljajarvi 4)....

[Junkyard Dog]

Only will happen if we struggle the next few years, JB is fired and/or get a new GM that would make immediate changes. 
 

Which is unlikely. 
 

Even then I highly doubt they’d move Horvat. 

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Only will happen if we struggle the next few years, JB is fired and/or get a new GM that would make immediate changes. 
 

Which is unlikely. 
 

Even then I highly doubt they’d move Horvat. 

Horvat is following a similar career arc as  O’Reilly and Kesler right now.   I’m not saying for sure he will end up as good at his peak, but for sure wouldn’t be surprised either.   Vegas sucked - but he was a monster against St Louis, and in the dot the entire playoffs.   Kesler didn’t have great linemates either, but O’Reilly’s are pretty darn good - and wonder what he could do with EP on his wing sometimes.    Hope BB gets to play with him and they put JV on the top line. Could make things very interesting next year while we wait for Podz and Hogs to arrive ... Lind too.  
 

I wanted a re-set this year - as in a year to take stock and see what’s close before the ED,  and an overhaul of the blue line.    Seems like that’s what JB is working on so far.   Before we throw the babies out with the bath water, they’ve earned the chance to see what they can do with what they have to work with, and another crack at the post-season whether it’s this season or the next one. Another high pick wouldn’t hurt at all, what would hurt is plugging holes before we even know if they need plugging - and using free agents to do it (thankfully no cap space for that!).
 

COL is a special case.   They aren’t the only team that’s done it, CAR did too but they were never that good with their previous core so it was not much of a gamble.  ARI is also on their second core, same with EDM.  TO ... well when did Burke go there again ha ha ...since Sundin.   At some point I’d expect we will see one player from the existing core to get traded, and perhaps a couple underachiever’s as well.   BB and JV are still young.   Hope they both have a great year. 

[Lazurus]

On 11/15/2020 at 11:52 AM, Junkyard Dog said:

Only will happen if we struggle the next few years, JB is fired and/or get a new GM that would make immediate changes. 
 

Which is unlikely. 
 

Even then I highly doubt they’d move Horvat. 

At issue here is who else will just about all the other teams want?

Any new GM will see that there is no depth in Utica and not enough youth in the core, players close to the same age. To the right team Horvat could be worth a 1rst and a top prospect or more.

How many teams are in the window now, contenders not pretenders and how many are desperate to make the next step that are maybe one player like Horvat away and have limited cap space? Horvat has a golden contract that just turned to platinum with the flat cap. 2 - 1rst rnd picks and prospect

But he would be the hardest to replace. Boeser on the other hand can be replaced, Virtanen almost does that now offensively, just about all the players that were with Pettersson and Miller scored at a personal record pace.

Boeser also is not far removed from runner up as rookie of the year, MVP at the all star game and lots of positive eastern publicity, but his contract has become another anchor in the near future, but he would have fewer teams but still get high rewards in return 1rs t rnd pick and 2 AAA propects

IMO Hughes needs to be on a team that has strong defence already but needs a PP quarter back, his next contract or maybe two he will still be an RFA making cap compliance easier. 1rst rnd pick and 2 defence prospects

 

Most GM's will trade 2023 draft picks for players now, because there is a good chance they will not be around or a good trade could save their jobs to still be around then. Any 2023 draft pick trade isn't coming back to haunt a team for 3 to 4 years so they have that time to stand in the adoration of a great trade and by the time fans realize they may have lost one in one of the best draft years the NHL has had, they would be happy with what they have already especially southern markets that don't seem to use their history as sales items.

[Gator]

Would this count as a retool or a rebuild? 

[Junkyard Dog]

3 hours ago, Lazurus said:

At issue here is who else will just about all the other teams want?

Any new GM will see that there is no depth in Utica and not enough youth in the core, players close to the same age. To the right team Horvat could be worth a 1rst and a top prospect or more.

How many teams are in the window now, contenders not pretenders and how many are desperate to make the next step that are maybe one player like Horvat away and have limited cap space? Horvat has a golden contract that just turned to platinum with the flat cap. 2 - 1rst rnd picks and prospect

But he would be the hardest to replace. Boeser on the other hand can be replaced, Virtanen almost does that now offensively, just about all the players that were with Pettersson and Miller scored at a personal record pace.

Boeser also is not far removed from runner up as rookie of the year, MVP at the all star game and lots of positive eastern publicity, but his contract has become another anchor in the near future, but he would have fewer teams but still get high rewards in return 1rs t rnd pick and 2 AAA propects

IMO Hughes needs to be on a team that has strong defence already but needs a PP quarter back, his next contract or maybe two he will still be an RFA making cap compliance easier. 1rst rnd pick and 2 defence prospects

 

Most GM's will trade 2023 draft picks for players now, because there is a good chance they will not be around or a good trade could save their jobs to still be around then. Any 2023 draft pick trade isn't coming back to haunt a team for 3 to 4 years so they have that time to stand in the adoration of a great trade and by the time fans realize they may have lost one in one of the best draft years the NHL has had, they would be happy with what they have already especially southern markets that don't seem to use their history as sales items.

I just don't see a new GM trading a Horvat. You want to keep players like him. Boeser and Miller are a lot more viable in this sort of scenario.

 

Not sure why we would entertain this. By a lot of accounts we're one of the better up and coming teams. This would make us a bottom/rebuilding one again. If it the picks/prospects don't pan out we're gonna be rebuilding a lot longer than we'd hope.

 

Closest scenario that would be similar to this is trading Boeser because we have wingers(Pod/Hog) that have stepped up and made him replaceable. We aren't at that point yet. I also doubt we would trade Boeser for picks/prospects, we'd likely want a defenseman back of similar stature. 

[Gurn]

On 11/14/2020 at 5:32 PM, IBatch said:

OJ was definitely a miss,

OJ is a pitch that has not reached the plate yet. Still time to make contact on the ball.

[Canuck Surfer]

Interestingly enough?

 

This would coincide with trading Horvat at the deadline in the ''rental'' year, the final year of his current contract.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Bo, then sign him July 1st folks... 

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, gurn said:

OJ is a pitch that has reached the plate to make contact on the ball.

Home run for sure.   Because if he was no EP, no QHs...and he still might make it. 

Edited November 18, 2020 by IBatch

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, Lazurus said:

At issue here is who else will just about all the other teams want?

Any new GM will see that there is no depth in Utica and not enough youth in the core, players close to the same age. To the right team Horvat could be worth a 1rst and a top prospect or more.

How many teams are in the window now, contenders not pretenders and how many are desperate to make the next step that are maybe one player like Horvat away and have limited cap space? Horvat has a golden contract that just turned to platinum with the flat cap. 2 - 1rst rnd picks and prospect

But he would be the hardest to replace. Boeser on the other hand can be replaced, Virtanen almost does that now offensively, just about all the players that were with Pettersson and Miller scored at a personal record pace.

Boeser also is not far removed from runner up as rookie of the year, MVP at the all star game and lots of positive eastern publicity, but his contract has become another anchor in the near future, but he would have fewer teams but still get high rewards in return 1rs t rnd pick and 2 AAA propects

IMO Hughes needs to be on a team that has strong defence already but needs a PP quarter back, his next contract or maybe two he will still be an RFA making cap compliance easier. 1rst rnd pick and 2 defence prospects

 

Most GM's will trade 2023 draft picks for players now, because there is a good chance they will not be around or a good trade could save their jobs to still be around then. Any 2023 draft pick trade isn't coming back to haunt a team for 3 to 4 years so they have that time to stand in the adoration of a great trade and by the time fans realize they may have lost one in one of the best draft years the NHL has had, they would be happy with what they have already especially southern markets that don't seem to use their history as sales items.

Sources please about this “draft of all drafts”...how can anyone even predict that?  The kids are 15 now.   Plus with Covid how are the kids going to develop the same way...have to actually play games to do that.  And BTW scouts usually don’t put too much stock on kids that age, too much changes in two years.   
 

This year was supposedly a great draft.  And EPs ho - hum average at best , yet Heiskanen was Dallas’s front runner for the Smythe... Jack Hughes was the front runner for the Calder to start the year, Dahlin the year before him “the next Lidstrom” ... point is take this stuff with a big grain of salt.  You never know. For fun go look at all the drafts.   Nothing has changed since it started - top ten is never done in order, too many top three misses ...and the past decade there isn’t much difference between a 25th overall and a 62nd overall (a statistical fact).   All this desire for a first round pick doesn’t mean much if it’s a late one,  what a contender would provide - same odds as a second rounder is poor odds to play 200 NHL games when you’ve got a winner in Horvat already.   Speaking of which he was a 9th, and an early starter...not something we should be expecting from a late first rounder at all - think McAan, and he’s already ABOVE average.  Sure maybe we luck out - but odds are against that.

 

The time to consider a trade like his is when JT Miller and Horvat are in their last year, the timing isn’t right yet.   I love where this team is at right now.   EP and QHs are still on their ELCs.   They aren’t 5 year pro’s yet like McKinnon was when Duchene was traded.   Big difference.   JB or whomever has a lot of time yet before he has to decide on recycling some of the older guys to re-build around EP and QHs.   And we still have some grade A guys in the pipe to check out.     We can’t rebuild forever, and I’d hate to watch EP and QHs lose their recently appointed Captain, and such a great friend and teammate BB just for futures.  

[Lazurus]

On 11/18/2020 at 1:55 AM, IBatch said:

Sources please about this “draft of all drafts”...how can anyone even predict that?  The kids are 15 now.   Plus with Covid how are the kids going to develop the same way...have to actually play games to do that.  And BTW scouts usually don’t put too much stock on kids that age, too much changes in two years.

That is not always the case, there have been a few players that garner attention very early on and end up fulfilling their scouting reports. Quite a few actually and with more hits than misses.

2023 has Connor Bedard, Brayden Yager and Riley Heidt from the WHL all 3 applied for exceptional status in the WHL and Bedard was the first ever to granted it at 14, all 3 are dominating already, Adam Fantilli is playing in the USHL, Matvei Michkov is breaking all kinds of records in Russia, Ondrej Molnar in Slovakia is a point per game pace at 15 yrs old in all leagues he has played in, for the 2023 draft there are many 15 yr olds that are near the top of there teams, higher than in most years.

 

Lots of fans will remember how the 2017 draft came down to two players as the top prospects, Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, Patrick was touted the best for over a year but even with injuries and missing tournaments he was picked mostly because his draft class was not great, Pettersson was the #1 ranked European and went at #5. But this draft class was dominated by the Patrick scouting reports, Hischier came on late in the year.

But the 2023 draft has close to 15 kids all doing better than most of their peers in different leagues and playing with players up to 5 years older in some cases.

 

While much can happen in 2 years, it still looks to be a very exceptional draft for depth and in recent history there have not been many mistakes made in scouting.

But a team must consider more than just this year to become a powerhouse, trading for future picks is building for the future, imagine if the Canucks traded with Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton for their first round picks and got lucky at the draft. The thing is the more draft picks the better the chances, no draft picks make it 100% failure, 3 or more draft picks geive a better chance. It would be great to get Bedard, but that takes a plan for the future, it isn't always dumb luck.

 

Sources? About 100,000 internet hits

 

Edited November 19, 2020 by Lazurus

[Lazurus]

On 11/18/2020 at 1:55 AM, IBatch said:

This year was supposedly a great draft.  And EPs ho - hum average at best , yet Heiskanen was Dallas’s front runner for the Smythe... Jack Hughes was the front runner for the Calder to start the year, Dahlin the year before him “the next Lidstrom” ... point is take this stuff with a big grain of salt.  You never know. For fun go look at all the drafts.   Nothing has changed since it started - top ten is never done in order, too many top three misses ...and the past decade there isn’t much difference between a 25th overall and a 62nd overall (a statistical fact).   All this desire for a first round pick doesn’t mean much if it’s a late one,  what a contender would provide - same odds as a second rounder is poor odds to play 200 NHL games when you’ve got a winner in Horvat already.   Speaking of which he was a 9th, and an early starter...not something we should be expecting from a late first rounder at all - think McAan, and he’s already ABOVE average.  Sure maybe we luck out - but odds are against that.

 

The time to consider a trade like his is when JT Miller and Horvat are in their last year, the timing isn’t right yet.   I love where this team is at right now.   EP and QHs are still on their ELCs.   They aren’t 5 year pro’s yet like McKinnon was when Duchene was traded.   Big difference.   JB or whomever has a lot of time yet before he has to decide on recycling some of the older guys to re-build around EP and QHs.   And we still have some grade A guys in the pipe to check out.     We can’t rebuild forever, and I’d hate to watch EP and QHs lose their recently appointed Captain, and such a great friend and teammate BB just for futures.  

The 2017 draft isn't looking stellar and Dahlin is doing better than Lidstrom on a worse team. The draft isn't looking a deep.

Sometimes a draft is measured not only by the number of highly skilled players, but the number of NHL potential skill level players.

While #25 to 62nd, and I didn't look that up so I take your word for it, might have similar chances at making the NHL, #1 to 25 are almost in the 90% group, hence trading early for 1rst round picks. Benning has the worst record for picking in the top ten of all GM's so far. I don't see JV as a total failure as a player but I do see picking him at #6 was a failure.

 

While I have mentioned that Horvat might be moved IMO it is Boeser who should be first as soon as possible, he is a good player, a reputation as a sniper but under the flat cap his contract is a disaster now, it is just ending at the wrong time. It IS the type of contract to be offering Pettersson but even then I think there should be a bridge deal first

[IBatch]

9 minutes ago, Lazurus said:

The 2017 draft isn't looking stellar and Dahlin is doing better than Lidstrom on a worse team. The draft isn't looking a deep.

Sometimes a draft is measured not only by the number of highly skilled players, but the number of NHL potential skill level players.

While #25 to 62nd, and I didn't look that up so I take your word for it, might have similar chances at making the NHL, #1 to 25 are almost in the 90% group, hence trading early for 1rst round picks. Benning has the worst record for picking in the top ten of all GM's so far. I don't see JV as a total failure as a player but I do see picking him at #6 was a failure.

 

While I have mentioned that Horvat might be moved IMO it is Boeser who should be first as soon as possible, he is a good player, a reputation as a sniper but under the flat cap his contract is a disaster now, it is just ending at the wrong time. It IS the type of contract to be offering Pettersson but even then I think there should be a bridge deal first

Lazurus ... how does Benning have the worst record for picking in the top ten so far - and compared to whom exactly?  
 

I think you need to educate on what scouts actually consider a bust - for the entire first round in segments.  And then spend some time just going year to year (start at 79 just for fun as it’s widely regarded as the best one ever) all the way up to present time. 
 

EDM missed on a first overall and a fourth.   Nobody that I ever re-call since the history of the draft was blessed with so many high picks all at once.   And our team is arguably better then them now even with McDavid and Drasaitl.   Buffalo also has had a lot of high picks...CLB had a ton throughout their history, OTT early on too.    There is no “playbook” as to what is and what isn’t the correct method - but I can say with absolute certainty that it was the great drafting by the MTL/NYI/EDM dynasties that took them over the top.    Well past the first round.   
 

To make it easy for you what scouts consider busts in the top ten goes like this:  1-3 - 700 games 4-7 500 games 8-10 400 games.   Past that all first rounders 200 games.   Second rounders...well let’s just say less then half make that.    And they don’t even consider quality.   Just NHL games played.  
 

So far JB has picked one bust in OJ...and three of the best players at 5,7 and low 20’s.    And OJ still might make it.   JB is firmly in the top ten best drafters over his tenure based on ADP or average draft position as well.   Routinely picking better guys then what’s available so this is a silly topic, pretty much anyone who follows the league knows this - and he’s commended for it often.   
 

Just got THN hockey pool book.  In it all the senior writers answer questions.   One of them is what team that hasn’t won the cup yet is going to win it next.   The panel was 100% split 50/50 with Vegas and Vancouver.   And one of the questions was who’s going to win the cup this year - one of their writers picked Vancouver, and a couple picked us to lose in the final.   Your negativity towards the team isn’t current with - well current events.   Three Calder finalists in a row, 17 playoff games (4th most in team history- and their first crack at it), knocked out last years champs and ruined Vegas’s run because we got in their heads too.     Why not flip your lens a little and look at the bright side - your obsession for high picks isn’t what this team needs.   It just needs another top four RHD and top six winger for Horvat.  Once the cap sheds that’s easily done right? 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Lazurus said:

That is not always the case, there have been a few players that garner attention very early on and end up fulfilling their scouting reports. Quite a few actually and with more hits than misses.

2023 has Connor Bedard, Brayden Yager and Riley Heidt from the WHL all 3 applied for exceptional status in the WHL and Bedard was the first ever to granted it at 14, all 3 are dominating already, Adam Fantilli is playing in the USHL, Matvei Michkov is breaking all kinds of records in Russia, Ondrej Molnar in Slovakia is a point per game pace at 15 yrs old in all leagues he has played in, for the 2023 draft there are many 15 yr olds that are near the top of there teams, higher than in most years.

 

Lots of fans will remember how the 2017 draft came down to two players as the top prospects, Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, Patrick was touted the best for over a year but even with injuries and missing tournaments he was picked mostly because his draft class was not great, Pettersson was the #1 ranked European and went at #5. But this draft class was dominated by the Patrick scouting reports, Hischier came on late in the year.

But the 2023 draft has close to 15 kids all doing better than most of their peers in different leagues and playing with players up to 5 years older in some cases.

 

While much can happen in 2 years, it still looks to be a very exceptional draft for depth and in recent history there have not been many mistakes made in scouting.

But a team must consider more than just this year to become a powerhouse, trading for future picks is building for the future, imagine if the Canucks traded with Toronto, Buffalo, Edmonton for their first round picks and got lucky at the draft. The thing is the more draft picks the better the chances, no draft picks make it 100% failure, 3 or more draft picks geive a better chance. It would be great to get Bedard, but that takes a plan for the future, it isn't always dumb luck.

 

Sources? About 100,000 internet hits

 

Lazurus - I’ve read piles of scouting reports and also have learned from what they actually say that they all know a lot can happen between 15-17 so don’t put too much emphasis on scouting 14-15 years olds.  Yes they do scout them, but they don’t spend a lot of time with them either, and for sure they have their favourites that they keep a close eye on, but the REAL work happens their draft year.   Because a lot of kids don’t look as good - and a lot of kids get way better once they mature a little physically.  That last sentence is the key - they don’t waste time on them because they know too much is going to change in two years.    I’m still waiting for Button or McKenzie or someone not blogging that is legitimate that says in this draft is going to be killer.   And like I said with Covid how are they even going to know who’s improving and who’s regressing?  Be real.   I haven’t seen any major hype over this draft that has legs from reliable sources.   Please educate me with a link.   And no I’m not talking about the “Tavares, Mathews, Hughes” level guys - of course the world knows about them early.   You might be surprised to find out that a lot of hype around 12-14 year olds doesn’t amount to anything.   Again scouts don’t waste too much time on them, with the exception of the truly exceptional. 
 

Edit:  And I’m not just making this up.  This is what the actual scouts say.  They seriously don’t get too excited if a 14-15 old is excelling.  They are for sure on their radar.   But too many don’t get to the draft table.   That’s a fact. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by IBatch

[Lazurus]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Lazurus ... how does Benning have the worst record for picking in the top ten so far - and compared to whom exactly?

So far he has had 5 top ten picks, no other GM in the league has had 5 top ten picks. So ALL the GM's or ANY of the GM's

The first two, Jake and OJ, Jake is a NHL player but far behind his contemporaries in skill and impact and OJ has not played a game, well 11 minutes so far, in those years no single GM blew top ten picks let alone two in the top six, the next two selections both are very good, Pettersson has shown he should have been first overall and Hughes is only behind because he was held out for a year but still a good pick. But even at that and if Poldkozin does work out as a top talent or top six talent Benning is still only at 60% of success by comparison to each of the draft peer groups. It is compounded by the number of picks, any GM could miss two top ten over a 7 year period but none even have had 5 top tens over 7 years. Any GM that could come close has been fired.

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Yes they do scout them, but they don’t spend a lot of time with them either, and for sure they have their favourites that they keep a close eye on, but the REAL work happens their draft year.

Wink, wink nudge nudge, agents are supposed to keep hands off and scouting is usually deterred until Midget level, but when players are playing up 2, 3 or 4 years those players are of note. Would you bet that none of the kids I mentioned are going to be stars? Or would you bet that maybe they will be, like Gretzky, Lemeiux, McDavid, Mathews, Crosby, Taveras, Lafreniere, Orr, sometimes the peer group has to considered scouted overall but when teenie boppers are playing with adults they are special and good odds to make the show. When 15 yr old surpass older players in conversation there is usually something there.

 

Besides getting the picks is the important thing if any of these guys go sideways there is still the pick, but there is safety in numbers.

 

[IBatch]

37 minutes ago, Lazurus said:

So far he has had 5 top ten picks, no other GM in the league has had 5 top ten picks. So ALL the GM's or ANY of the GM's

The first two, Jake and OJ, Jake is a NHL player but far behind his contemporaries in skill and impact and OJ has not played a game, well 11 minutes so far, in those years no single GM blew top ten picks let alone two in the top six, the next two selections both are very good, Pettersson has shown he should have been first overall and Hughes is only behind because he was held out for a year but still a good pick. But even at that and if Poldkozin does work out as a top talent or top six talent Benning is still only at 60% of success by comparison to each of the draft peer groups. It is compounded by the number of picks, any GM could miss two top ten over a 7 year period but none even have had 5 top tens over 7 years. Any GM that could come close has been fired.

Wink, wink nudge nudge, agents are supposed to keep hands off and scouting is usually deterred until Midget level, but when players are playing up 2, 3 or 4 years those players are of note. Would you bet that none of the kids I mentioned are going to be stars? Or would you bet that maybe they will be, like Gretzky, Lemeiux, McDavid, Mathews, Crosby, Taveras, Lafreniere, Orr, sometimes the peer group has to considered scouted overall but when teenie boppers are playing with adults they are special and good odds to make the show. When 15 yr old surpass older players in conversation there is usually something there.

 

Besides getting the picks is the important thing if any of these guys go sideways there is still the pick, but there is safety in numbers.

 

This post shows your clearly are not paying any attention to what else is gone on the league over the past ten years, beyond that even worse.   EDM had how many first overalls again?  Plus a third, plus a fourth plus a tenth. We had two fifths,  sixth, as seventh and a tenth.   Until you are willing to do the research into what average draft position, the actual percentages of each part of the first round, the second round and the rest of them combined (25th and beyond the past decade until the end of the second round a whopping 25% have played 200 games, all the rounds combined past the second even less)... I think we aren’t talking about the same thing at all. 

Edited November 19, 2020 by IBatch

[Lazurus]

On 11/19/2020 at 10:52 PM, IBatch said:

This post shows your clearly are not paying any attention to what else is gone on the league over the past ten years, beyond that even worse.   EDM had how many first overalls again?  Plus a third, plus a fourth plus a tenth. We had two fifths,  sixth, as seventh and a tenth.   Until you are willing to do the research into what average draft position, the actual percentages of each part of the first round, the second round and the rest of them combined (25th and beyond the past decade until the end of the second round a whopping 25% have played 200 games, all the rounds combined past the second even less)... I think we aren’t talking about the same thing at all. 

GM's, not teams,GM's. Edmonton various GM's. Last 10 years, Tambellini, MacTavish, Chiarelli and Holland, if you want throw in Gretzky and before Lowe.

 

Some of Edmonton's 1rst's were a result of luck in the lottery

 

Some research is easy, how many games played? Only need the actual draft results that include games played and points.

Which GM drafted? Only need a name.

 

Don't forget that a lot of what you are saying about Edmonton goes farther back than 10 years now.

Time flies but Benning is coming up on 7 full years with a win percentage of an average .442, or 479 gms, 212 wins and 267 losses, an average league standing of 23rd.

 

Of all statistics that can be created or worked on the most important is wins vs losses, would you not agree? Why else pay to watch a competitive sport? Even Ice Dancing or Figure skating is competitive, remember the Salt Lake City Olympics.