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a look at the top 20 signings this year

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Petey_BOI
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here is a list of the highest paid players signed this year. I wanted to see how much less players were signing for. here are the results of my investigation.
 
Top 10 UFA
pietrangelo predicted 8.3 actual 8.8
hall  predicted 5.7 actual 8 
krug predicted 7.4 actual 6.5
Brodie predicted 5.4 actual 5.0
Dadonov predicted 5.9 actual 5
Tanev predicted 3.6 actual 4.5
Toffoli predicted 5.6 actual 4.3
Schultz predicted 3.0 actual 4.0
Shattenkirk predicted 4.7 actual 3.9
Barrie predicted 4.4 actual 3.8
 
 
top 10 RFA
Manthaa predicted 6.5 actual 5.7 
Reinhart  predicted 5.3 actual 5.2 
pulock predicted 5.8 actual 5
burakovsky predicted 3.6 actual 4.9
Deangelo predicted 4.2 actual 4.8
Labanc predicted 3.8 actual 4.7
Strome predicted 4.9 actual 4.5
Toews predicted 4.8 actual 4.1
Montour predicted 3.9 actual 3.9
Kubalik predicted 4.4 actual 3.7
 
so are contracts cheaper? the short answer is no, the long answer is they're're shorter, which in turn lowers the AAV
 
without considering predicted term the difference between the predicted and actual salarys is 0nly 900k less over 20 player's or about 50k cheaper each contract. the real difference is that the contracts are much shorter than usual, about 2 years shorter than predicted. if they were longer the AAV would rise too along with contract length
 
so how much is 2 years AAV worth? that depends on UFA/RFA status, the age of the player and the quality of the player.
 
these 10 ufa's term on average were 2 years shorter than expected. players like hall 2 years is 1.4m, shattenkirk 500k . but the quality of the players will likely decline with age, meaning the UFA'S are really losing out.
 
 for rfa's its a lot more complicated, there contracts too were also 2 years shorter on average. and for the majority of these player's more years means higher AAV. but realistly alot of these  young rfa's will improve, meaning more money down the road, so its kind of a wash.
Edited by Petey_BOI
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56 minutes ago, Petey_BOI said:
here is a list of the highest paid players signed this year. I wanted to see how much less players were signing for. here are the results of my investigation.
 
Top 10 UFA
pietrangelo predicted 8.3 actual 8.8
hall  predicted 5.7 actual 8 
krug predicted 7.4 actual 6.5
 
 
Brodie predicted 5.4 actual 5.0
Dadonov predicted 5.9 actual 5
 
 
 
 
Tanev predicted 3.6 actual 4.5
 
Toffoli predicted 5.6 actual 4.3
 
Schultz predicted 3.0 actual 4.0
Shattenkirk predicted 4.7 actual 3.9
 
Barrie predicted 4.4 actual 3.8
 
 
top 10 RFA
Manthaa predicted 6.5 actual 5.7 
Reinhart  predicted 5.3 actual 5.2 
pulock predicted 5.8 actual 5
burakovsky predicted 3.6 actual 4.9
Deangelo predicted 4.2 actual 4.8
Labanc predicted 3.8 actual 4.7
Strome predicted 4.9 actual 4.5
Toews predicted 4.8 actual 4.1
Montour predicted 3.9 actual 3.9
Kubalik predicted 4.4 actual 3.7
 
so are contracts cheaper? the short answer is no, the long answer is they're're shorter, which in turn lowers the AAV
 
without considering predicted term the difference between the predicted and actual salarys is 0nly 900k less over 20 player's or about 50k cheaper each contract. the real difference is that the contracts are much shorter than usual, about 2 years shorter than predicted. if they were longer the AAV would rise too along with contract length
 
so how much is 2 years AAV worth? that depends on UFA/RFA status, the age of the player and the quality of the player.
 
these 10 ufa's term on average were 2 years shorter than expected. players like hall 2 years is 1.4m, shattenkirk 500k . but the quality of the players will likely decline with age, meaning the UFA'S are really losing out.
 
 for rfa's its a lot more complicated, there contracts too were also 2 years shorter on average. and for the majority of these player's more years means higher AAV. but realistly alot of these  young rfa's will improve, meaning more money down the road, so its kind of a wash.

Sorry, I'm missing some math logic here - how does shorter contract lower AAV? If anything, it should be the opposite - on longer contracts clubs might be able to lower AAV by giving the player a little more money overall. Hall is the perfect example. If he was signing a longer term deal, there's no way he would be getting $8 mil AAV.

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1 hour ago, RomanP said:

Sorry, I'm missing some math logic here - how does shorter contract lower AAV? If anything, it should be the opposite - on longer contracts clubs might be able to lower AAV by giving the player a little more money overall. Hall is the perfect example. If he was signing a longer term deal, there's no way he would be getting $8 mil AAV.

there is no explanation on how this cap calculator works, but suprisingly it was pretty dang accurate, only hall and toffoli do the numbers come up that far off.

 

maybe the history of 1 year contacts with UFA's is skewed because high end talent generally only take 1 year contracts when there taking discounts to win a cup or have injury problems?  i mean look at pat maroon, guy had been literally chasing a cup.

 

 

32 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yeah sorry OP, shorter contracts normally raise AAV, not lower it.

 

Granted this is an odd ball season for obvious reasons but I have no idea what the 'nugget' is that you seem to think you've gleaned here.

the history of rfa's though is that you will pay more for longer contracts, you have to agree with that right?

 

what i was looking for was to see how much less contracts were signed for compared  to the expected. did i accomplish that? nope! but i did find that contracts were on average 2 years shorter than normal

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5 hours ago, Petey_BOI said:

there is no explanation on how this cap calculator works, but suprisingly it was pretty dang accurate, only hall and toffoli do the numbers come up that far off.

 

maybe the history of 1 year contacts with UFA's is skewed because high end talent generally only take 1 year contracts when there taking discounts to win a cup or have injury problems?  i mean look at pat maroon, guy had been literally chasing a cup.

 

 

the history of rfa's though is that you will pay more for longer contracts, you have to agree with that right?

 

what i was looking for was to see how much less contracts were signed for compared  to the expected. did i accomplish that? nope! but i did find that contracts were on average 2 years shorter than normal

For RFA's you pay more if the contract extends into UFA years where the player has the potential to test the open market.  Hence the higher AAV for longer contracts.   

 

For UFA players, say Tanev (30 yrs old) longer term for a lower AAV but more total contract dollars is an option that players will go for.  He took 4 @ 4.5 AAV with 3.5 in year 1, 5.5 year 2, and 4.5 in the final 2 years in actual salary.  His prior contract was 4.45 AAV with 5.25 actual salary in the final year which shows that he was willing to take a haircut in actual salary in return for the security of a 4 year term.

 

It's pretty hard to generalize because every situation is different.

 

 

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On 11/18/2020 at 1:44 PM, Petey_BOI said:

i used a cap calculating calculator and it doesn't include the option for goalies.

 

sorry, i wish i had the info.

Dobber had Lehner and Markstrom’s value at 6.15 and 6.35 ... Lehner’s was a value contract, Markstrom wasn’t considering the term and NMC.   These were for one year only - no term.   Tanevs was 3.4.   Stecher was 3.2ish and TT was 5.7. 

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On 11/18/2020 at 1:38 PM, ba;;isticsports said:

Markstrom never made the list ?

Markstrom’s contract was considered fair but an overpayment for sure given the NMC and his age and the term.   Calgary will for sure come to regret it.  

 

Lehner at 5 x 5 is a better deal but both come with some baggage and quite a bit of risk given how fickle the position is.  
 

Dobber makes a non-biased list based on all stats including games played.   Out of the guys we lost TT and Stecher took discounts, Tanev was overpaid as was Markstrom. 

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On 11/18/2020 at 2:27 PM, Petey_BOI said:

there is no explanation on how this cap calculator works, but suprisingly it was pretty dang accurate, only hall and toffoli do the numbers come up that far off.

 

maybe the history of 1 year contacts with UFA's is skewed because high end talent generally only take 1 year contracts when there taking discounts to win a cup or have injury problems?  i mean look at pat maroon, guy had been literally chasing a cup.

 

 

the history of rfa's though is that you will pay more for longer contracts, you have to agree with that right?

 

what i was looking for was to see how much less contracts were signed for compared  to the expected. did i accomplish that? nope! but i did find that contracts were on average 2 years shorter than normal

You did a good job and I enjoyed looking at it.  Every year is different then the expected, that’s where the market comes into place.  Look at Hoffman, sitting out looking in, better stats then most wingers available but still without a contract.   Last season it was Gardiner.  Myers was considered the prize of the group but Gardiner was a comparable just on the left side.   6-7 for both were been thrown around, Myers got paid (and he was the 7, not Gardiner), he got around 4.   And look what Hayes got.   
 

Every year some get grossly overpaid for past production, some get about the right amount and even less get a team friendly discount.    What’s more concerning is the spike in pay for blue chip second contract RFAs.    Can say this, the system absolutely depends on revenues going up, Seattle will allow about a 3% overall cap burn for all teams IF they spend to the cap, less if they don’t.   Even with that all those RFAs and UFAs are expecting raises for the most part (second and third contracts anyways) and they usually are very big ones.  Anywhere from the qualifying 10% offer to 700% and beyond for super-stars.   Where is this money coming from? 
 

For us at least maybe it helps us a little long term with EP and QHs.   Under normal circumstances bet they would get more. 

Edited by IBatch
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21 hours ago, IBatch said:

You did a good job and I enjoyed looking at it.  Every year is different then the expected, that’s where the market comes into place.  Look at Hoffman, sitting out looking in, better stats then most wingers available but still without a contract.   Last season it was Gardiner.  Myers was considered the prize of the group but Gardiner was a comparable just on the left side.   6-7 for both were been thrown around, Myers got paid (and he was the 7, not Gardiner), he got around 4.   And look what Hayes got.   
 

Every year some get grossly overpaid for past production, some get about the right amount and even less get a team friendly discount.    What’s more concerning is the spike in pay for blue chip second contract RFAs.    Can say this, the system absolutely depends on revenues going up, Seattle will allow about a 3% overall cap burn for all teams IF they spend to the cap, less if they don’t.   Even with that all those RFAs and UFAs are expecting raises for the most part (second and third contracts anyways) and they usually are very big ones.  Anywhere from the qualifying 10% offer to 700% and beyond for super-stars.   Where is this money coming from? 
 

For us at least maybe it helps us a little long term with EP and QHs.   Under normal circumstances bet they would get more. 

 

thanks for your posts.

 

i cant seem to find the link for dobber hockeys contract predictor,  i would like to compare the 2

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Quinn Hughes D VAN N July Same RFA 20 6 $6,788,000 1% 10% 9% 8% 13% 24% 17% 19% $4,004,000 $5,204,000 $5,729,000 $5,926,000 $6,392,000 $6,788,000 $7,087,000 $8,106,000 5.6 $6,698,000

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1 Elias Pettersson F VAN N July Same RFA 21 8 $10,520,000 0% 3% 5% 7% 19% 15% 8% 43% $7,426,000 $6,777,000 $8,216,000 $8,280,000 $8,949,000 $9,052,000 $9,382,000 $10,520,000 6.3 $9,525,000
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