Coronavirus outbreak

[EP Phone Home]

20 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

If they're infected with the virus? Yes.

I really don’t have confidence in our screening systems in place. With how long it incubates without symptoms is alarming. Will be keeping my eyes on this with the two cases in TO and hoping we will finally close flights to and from China. The fact that the health minister says our risk is low is a bloody joke. Stop thinking about losing money and start thinking about saving lives and protecting the safely of our beautiful country. The fact that our PM was tweeting out about the Grammys then anything about the Corona Virus just shows where our  priorities are right now. 
 

Everyone be safe especially @smokes all the best down there man. We are hoping for the best for you!

Edited January 27, 2020 by EP Phone Home

[PhillipBlunt]

Just now, EP Phone Home said:

I really don’t have confidence in our screening systems in place.

Same.

Just now, EP Phone Home said:

With how long it incubates without symptoms is alarming. Will be keeping my eyes on this with the two cases in TO and hoping we will finally close flights to and from China.

This has to happen, for sure.

Just now, EP Phone Home said:

The fact that the health minister says our risk is low is a bloody joke.

What an idiot.

Just now, EP Phone Home said:

Stop thinking about losing money and start thinking about saving lives and protecting the safely of our beautiful country. Everyone be safe especially @smokes all the best down there man. We are hoping for the best for you!

For sure. This is becoming more frightening with each day passing.

[Alflives]

18 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

If they're infected with the virus? Yes.

Good.  Thank goodness we can keep them out. 

[riffraff]

Pass on the chow mein I guess 

[smokes]

1 hour ago, gurn said:

Dude, I'm not the one calling people things, other than afraid.

The government over there has trained their populace to obey, eos.

I have lived here for many years and the government does not train them to obey. Can you possibly imagine in your logical mind that this is a country with over a billion people and for a Party to be able to control the populace like robots who obey? People here are trained to obey thier families and everything they do has a direct respect to thier families. Most of the people here would rather talk about things happening within thier lives than what government has to say. Sometimes I honestly believe the news media has brainwashed people to think one way without getting both sides of the news. Things that happened over thirty years ago and 4 Chairmans later are, people are still hanging this thing on thier heads. Every country in the world has made mistakes. So does that mean everytime I talk about the American government, I need to start of with every atrocity they have made within the past 30 years? When I talk about the Canadian government, should I talk about the Natives and the Head tax? This is a conversation about the people, the lives that are being fought and lost. Why in this critical time would you choose to trash the government and insult a whole nation of people by saying they are too stupid to think for themselves? You know since they obey and everything.

[ktcy2]

21 hours ago, HKSR said:

Any medical buffs here able to clarify why this virus or SARS or any other virus that is highlighted by media coverage outweighs the fact that the annual influenza infects about 1 billion (yes, billion and not million) people worldwide while killing between 290,000 and 650,000 people?  Seems to me the standard flu virus is way more deadly, yet media glances over it.

Because flu is not new and fatality rate is approximately 1000 times lower. 
 

Take SARS for example, 1 in 17 dies from it. This new corona virus is currently at anywhere from 3 to 13% fatality rate depending on various factors. So even if you take the lowest percentage you are looking at 3 out of 100 deaths. 
 

 

[Russ]

Hmmmm I had a bunch of stuff I wanted to order from Banggood... don't know if its a good time or not now dammit.  I doubt anything would happen since it would just be tools but now I am skeptical, ugh!

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, ktcy2 said:

Because flu is not new and fatality rate is approximately 1000 times lower. 
 

Take SARS for example, 1 in 17 dies from it. This new corona virus is currently at anywhere from 3 to 13% fatality rate depending on various factors. So even if you take the lowest percentage you are looking at 3 out of 100 deaths. 
 

 

I can see where you're coming from, but deaths are confirmed much quicker than infections.  As another post shows, over 30,000 are being observed for possible infection.  We can be pretty confident about the death number, but not the infection number.  Should those 30,000 actually be infected, and 80 deaths from the illness, that means the death factor is WAY lower.  80/30000 = 0.3% or 1 in 300.

[bishopshodan]

1 hour ago, Russ said:

Hmmmm I had a bunch of stuff I wanted to order from Banggood... don't know if its a good time or not now dammit.  I doubt anything would happen since it would just be tools but now I am skeptical, ugh!

Yeah, good point. One of my family members was thinking about putting a container together.

Gonna tell him to pump the brakes.

[Kragar]

52 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I can see where you're coming from, but deaths are confirmed much quicker than infections.  As another post shows, over 30,000 are being observed for possible infection.  We can be pretty confident about the death number, but not the infection number.  Should those 30,000 actually be infected, and 80 deaths from the illness, that means the death factor is WAY lower.  80/30000 = 0.3% or 1 in 300.

How can we be confident with the death toll when China had reportedly made deliberate attempts to miscategorize deaths to keep the numbers lower?

 

Also, your math logic doesn't make sense, at least to the point of coming to a useful conclusion.  Comparing the "known" death toll against those currently being observed tells us very little, as far as I can tell.

 

There are just so many unknowns here that it is worth worrying about, compared to everyday flu viruses.  Especially given the delay in showing symptoms with this new bug.

[HKSR]

27 minutes ago, Kragar said:

How can we be confident with the death toll when China had reportedly made deliberate attempts to miscategorize deaths to keep the numbers lower?

 

Also, your math logic doesn't make sense, at least to the point of coming to a useful conclusion.  Comparing the "known" death toll against those currently being observed tells us very little, as far as I can tell.

 

There are just so many unknowns here that it is worth worrying about, compared to everyday flu viruses.  Especially given the delay in showing symptoms with this new bug.

What I was trying to say is that death numbers can be easily determined via autopsy or post death examination.  The number of infections worldwide, on the other hand, are MUCH more difficult to determine.  There likely are WAY more than the amount reported as infected, but there's just no way to verify them unless the person checks into a hospital and is examined.

 

Is it a delay in showing symptoms?  or is it a delay in the infected being accounted for?  Only those involved would know.

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, HKSR said:

What I was trying to say is that death numbers can be easily determined via autopsy or post death examination.  The number of infections worldwide, on the other hand, are MUCH more difficult to determine.  There likely are WAY more than the amount reported as infected, but there's just no way to verify them unless the person checks into a hospital and is examined.

 

Is it a delay in showing symptoms?  or is it a delay in the infected being accounted for?  Only those involved would know.

Governments lie, especially one like in China where they are always trying to prove their way of running a society is better than all others.  

[smokes]

56 minutes ago, Kragar said:

How can we be confident with the death toll when China had reportedly made deliberate attempts to miscategorize deaths to keep the numbers lower?

 

I do not believe they would keep the rate of death lower as this would probably be pretty well known in the scientific community where doctors from all over the world are getting together to find a cure. I have some buddies who live near the hospital and right now the biggest issue is that the hospitals are overcrowded with people have the common cold and are freaking out. My buddies tell me that there are as much people leaving because they did not have anythign serious. If there was any cover up of numbers it would probably be from the provicial jurisdiction because they probably don't want to get in trouble and make it into a big thing, but that would only have been earlier on, now that the Central government, they can't lie with the numbers.

 

What's worrisome right now is that there is a reported 80 deaths while only 51 have recovered. So far the mortality rate is higher than the recovery rate.

Edited January 27, 2020 by smokes

[nuckin_futz]

US raises China travel advisory

Mon 27 Jan 2020 19:40:25 GMT

 

Urging travelers to reconsider travel to China

The US has raised the China travel advisory, urging travelers to reconsider travel to China.

 

The latest death toll has risen to 82 confirmed deaths while the confirmed cases in China has jumped over 2700.

 

China has extended the Lunar New Year holiday to February 2.

 

****************************

 

The novel coronavirus has arrived in Cambodia and Sri Lanka, according to local health officials cited by Reuters and the Bangkok Post.

The virus has now been detected in a total of 17 countries/autonomous regions...

 

 

2 in Canada now.

*********************

 

Also, it is impossible to calculate an accurate mortality rate for this virus. As we only have 2 of the 3 variables needed.

 

You need the total deaths, and the total number of infections, but you also need to know what happened to all the others infected. That is currently an unknown. Did they join the deceased or did they recover? Most will recover but some will perish. How many? We do not know yet.

[NucksPatsFan]

Luckily don't have any social or work reasons to visit Richmond.

[Kragar]

9 minutes ago, smokes said:

I do not believe they would keep the rate of death lower as this would probably be pretty well known in the scientific community where doctors from all over the world are getting together to find a cure. I have some buddies who live near the hospital and right now the biggest issue is that the hospitals are overcrowded with people have the common cold and are freaking out. My buddies tell me that there are as much people leaving because they did not have anythign serious. If there was any cover up of numbers it would probably be from the provicial jurisdiction because they probably don't want to get in trouble and make it into a big thing, but that would only have been earlier on, now that the Central government, they can't lie with the numbers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pneumonia-like-deaths-in-wuhan-some-wonder-if-china-virus-count-is-too-low/2020/01/22/0f50b1e6-3d07-11ea-971f-4ce4f94494b4_story.html

 

Although Chen had all the symptoms of the coronavirus that is spreading across China and beyond, she is not counted on the official list of those who have died as a result of the infection. Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

But hospital staff told her stepson, Kyle Hui, that they strongly suspected she had “that” kind of pneumonia. At the crematorium, where the workers were in hazmat suits, Chen’s body was immediately incinerated without a proper farewell, and the vehicle it arrived in was disinfected.

 

“My stepmother was warmhearted, and she was generous in helping people,” Hui, a 40-year-old architect who lives in Shanghai, told The Post. “She had many friends everywhere. How pitiful that in the last mile of her journey, she had only a dozen family members saying goodbye to her in such a hurry.”

Tellingly, the family has received no bill from the hospital — consistent with the authorities’ pledge to cover the costs of all those infected with the mysterious virus, which started in a food market where wild and exotic animals were being sold for consumption.

Chen had never been to the market, Hui said, but she did go to the nearby station to catch the train to Xiamen.

She was never given a test to categorically confirm whether it was the virus. Nor was her daughter-in-law, who cared for Chen and now has low-grade symptoms. Her husband and elder son have not been tested, either. Now Hui, having returned to Shanghai, has quarantined himself from his wife and son, lest he also be infected.

 

At least 17 dead as Chinese coronavirus spreads, despite efforts to contain it

Hui’s account, along with others that have emerged in recent days, suggest that the coronavirus could be far more prevalent than Chinese health authorities have acknowledged.

China’s National Health Commission said Wednesday that more than 470 people have been infected by the virus. The authorities in the province around Wuhan said Wednesday that 17 had died.

After playing down the prospects of the pneumonialike virus being transmitted between humans, authorities have now said that the infection of people who have never been to the market at the epicenter of the outbreak shows that it is being passed among people.

As the coronavirus has progressed, the National Health Commission has been making an effort to put out daily updates, although they often come after midnight.

But many here are wondering if the government is being as transparent about the virus as it claims to be.

 

Memories of the attempts to play down and cover up the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 still linger. The official response to more recent health scandals, including a contaminated milk scandal in 2008 and a tainted vaccine scandal in 2018, have not engendered greater confidence in the system.

China has learned the lessons of the SARS epidemic, said Mao Shoulong, a renowned professor and director of public administration at Renmin University.

“China paid a steep price during the SARS crisis due to bureaucracy and red tape and can’t afford to go through that again,” Mao said. “Rather than relying on a sloppy system centered around government officials, we need one that gives priority to patients, doctors and public health in an emergency like this.”

 

What we know about the mysterious, pneumonialike illness spreading in China and elsewhere

Xi’s association with the response marked a sharp contrast to the official response to the swine flu outbreak that erupted last year and caused pork prices to spike ahead of politically sensitive holidays. At that time, that crisis was handled by the prime minister and other economic officials.

Yan Jirong, a professor at Peking University’s Institute of Political Development and Governance, said it was not surprising that Xi has put his name on the response.

Still, there is plenty of evidence that the Communist Party is trying to control the narrative.

 

Chinese media have said that the first case of viral pneumonia in Wuhan was reported on Dec. 8, but the local government did not put out an official notice about it until Dec. 31.

Then, local authorities appear to have delayed further announcements underscoring the danger of the virus until after Hubei province, whose capital is Wuhan, had wrapped up a political meeting held from Jan. 11 to Jan. 15.

 

Some local journalists have said they were stopped from reporting about the virus, and even social media posts from government departments were deleted within hours.

There have also been other reports of people, in addition to Chen, who appear to have died in the coronavirus outbreak but are not included in the official tally.  Both of Xu Xinlei’s parents died nine days apart in Wuhan from “lung infections” that she believes were coronavirus.

 

Her 72-year-old mother was hospitalized in mid-December for a heart problem and developed a fever while admitted. She was moved to the respiratory department, then quarantined. She died on Jan. 12, Xu told Beijing News.

Xu’s father, who had been visiting his wife in the hospital, then grew short of breath. When a scan showed he had a lung infection, doctors told Xu to move him to one of “those” hospitals, she said, referring to the institutions treating patients with coronavirus.

He died Tuesday. Neither of them were tested for the virus. Both, like Chen, were cremated immediately

This outbreak is extremely sensitive for Xi and the ruling Communist Party. Not only is the coronavirus spreading, but it comes on the heels of rising food prices overall and a slowing economy, in the midst of continuing frictions with the United States, and as Beijing faces political challenges in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

 

That means it could have political ramifications.

“People are getting very angry in Wuhan, but before, it was a local issue,” said Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. “Now that the virus has escaped Wuhan, it has become a national issue. So, given how centralized the system is, Xi has to act decisively and put his imprimatur on this.”

Xi’s involvement could hearten some people, Yang said, and help local leaders ensure social stability. But this could backfire on him if the situation turns out to be worse than thought, or if it has a big economic impact.

Some of this impact may take time to see.

China’s local governments, including Wuhanand surrounding Hubei province, are being crushed by huge debt loads, and the financial toll of this outbreak could push them over the edge.

 

Beginning early Thursday, all outbound travel was banned from Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, in an unprecedented action by China to try to contain the virus. The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, reported that “no people in Wuhan … will be allowed to leave the city.”

Hubei authorities on Wednesday asked the central government for emergency assistance of 40 million surgical masks, 5 million protection suits and 5,000 infrared thermometers.

 

“If the disease was spread to some of the poor provinces that are heavily indebted, it would mean substantial additional outlays for local governments, especially at the municipal and county level where the budget is really, really strapped,” said Victor Shih, an expert on China’s political economy at the University of California at San Diego.s

That may mean that promised bridges and roads will not be built, he said, adding to percolating discontent about the slowing economy.

“Even if people are unhappy, they’re obviously not going to rise up or anything,” Shih said.

The increasingly iron-fisted Xi, who has scrapped term limits so he can theoretically rule this one-party state for the rest of his life, has put in place strict controls and surveillance to make sure there is no dissent.

“But if the disease continues to spread in China, and if we see clear signs of policy failures to deal with this kind of virus,” Shih said, “I think the educated public will be very disappointed and disillusioned about the effect of concentrating so much power in the hands of one person.

-----

Sorry for the long read.  All of the above came from the article link.  I tried to edit it some to keep it smaller, but it is hard to do from my phone. I also cannot create an empty quote box from my phone to put it in.

[nuckin_futz]

6 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

Luckily don't have any social or work reasons to visit Richmond.

With the amount of daily direct flights from China to Vancouver I'd be surprised if there wasn't a case in Vancouver already. Not going to lable any particular municipalities.

 

Air Canada

Cathay Pacific

China Southern

China Eastern

Those 4 fly daily (unless I am wrong)

and possibly Delta, American, United (maybe more).

 

Edited January 27, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[smokes]

18 minutes ago, Kragar said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-families-tell-of-pneumonia-like-deaths-in-wuhan-some-wonder-if-china-virus-count-is-too-low/2020/01/22/0f50b1e6-3d07-11ea-971f-4ce4f94494b4_story.html

 

Although Chen had all the symptoms of the coronavirus that is spreading across China and beyond, she is not counted on the official list of those who have died as a result of the infection. Her death certificate, which her family showed to The Washington Post, reads “severe pneumonia.”

But hospital staff told her stepson, Kyle Hui, that they strongly suspected she had “that” kind of pneumonia. At the crematorium, where the workers were in hazmat suits, Chen’s body was immediately incinerated without a proper farewell, and the vehicle it arrived in was disinfected.

 

“My stepmother was warmhearted, and she was generous in helping people,” Hui, a 40-year-old architect who lives in Shanghai, told The Post. “She had many friends everywhere. How pitiful that in the last mile of her journey, she had only a dozen family members saying goodbye to her in such a hurry.”

Tellingly, the family has received no bill from the hospital — consistent with the authorities’ pledge to cover the costs of all those infected with the mysterious virus, which started in a food market where wild and exotic animals were being sold for consumption.

Chen had never been to the market, Hui said, but she did go to the nearby station to catch the train to Xiamen.

She was never given a test to categorically confirm whether it was the virus. Nor was her daughter-in-law, who cared for Chen and now has low-grade symptoms. Her husband and elder son have not been tested, either. Now Hui, having returned to Shanghai, has quarantined himself from his wife and son, lest he also be infected.

 

At least 17 dead as Chinese coronavirus spreads, despite efforts to contain it

Hui’s account, along with others that have emerged in recent days, suggest that the coronavirus could be far more prevalent than Chinese health authorities have acknowledged.

China’s National Health Commission said Wednesday that more than 470 people have been infected by the virus. The authorities in the province around Wuhan said Wednesday that 17 had died.

After playing down the prospects of the pneumonialike virus being transmitted between humans, authorities have now said that the infection of people who have never been to the market at the epicenter of the outbreak shows that it is being passed among people.

 

As the coronavirus has progressed, the National Health Commission has been making an effort to put out daily updates, although they often come after midnight.

But many here are wondering if the government is being as transparent about the virus as it claims to be.

 

Memories of the attempts to play down and cover up the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 still linger. The official response to more recent health scandals, including a contaminated milk scandal in 2008 and a tainted vaccine scandal in 2018, have not engendered greater confidence in the system.

China has learned the lessons of the SARS epidemic, said Mao Shoulong, a renowned professor and director of public administration at Renmin University.

“China paid a steep price during the SARS crisis due to bureaucracy and red tape and can’t afford to go through that again,” Mao said. “Rather than relying on a sloppy system centered around government officials, we need one that gives priority to patients, doctors and public health in an emergency like this.”

 

What we know about the mysterious, pneumonialike illness spreading in China and elsewhere

Xi’s association with the response marked a sharp contrast to the official response to the swine flu outbreak that erupted last year and caused pork prices to spike ahead of politically sensitive holidays. At that time, that crisis was handled by the prime minister and other economic officials.

Yan Jirong, a professor at Peking University’s Institute of Political Development and Governance, said it was not surprising that Xi has put his name on the response.

Still, there is plenty of evidence that the Communist Party is trying to control the narrative.

 

Chinese media have said that the first case of viral pneumonia in Wuhan was reported on Dec. 8, but the local government did not put out an official notice about it until Dec. 31.

Then, local authorities appear to have delayed further announcements underscoring the danger of the virus until after Hubei province, whose capital is Wuhan, had wrapped up a political meeting held from Jan. 11 to Jan. 15.

 

Some local journalists have said they were stopped from reporting about the virus, and even social media posts from government departments were deleted within hours.

There have also been other reports of people, in addition to Chen, who appear to have died in the coronavirus outbreak but are not included in the official tally.  Both of Xu Xinlei’s parents died nine days apart in Wuhan from “lung infections” that she believes were coronavirus.

 

Her 72-year-old mother was hospitalized in mid-December for a heart problem and developed a fever while admitted. She was moved to the respiratory department, then quarantined. She died on Jan. 12, Xu told Beijing News.

Xu’s father, who had been visiting his wife in the hospital, then grew short of breath. When a scan showed he had a lung infection, doctors told Xu to move him to one of “those” hospitals, she said, referring to the institutions treating patients with coronavirus.

He died Tuesday. Neither of them were tested for the virus. Both, like Chen, were cremated immediately

This outbreak is extremely sensitive for Xi and the ruling Communist Party. Not only is the coronavirus spreading, but it comes on the heels of rising food prices overall and a slowing economy, in the midst of continuing frictions with the United States, and as Beijing faces political challenges in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

 

That means it could have political ramifications.

“People are getting very angry in Wuhan, but before, it was a local issue,” said Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. “Now that the virus has escaped Wuhan, it has become a national issue. So, given how centralized the system is, Xi has to act decisively and put his imprimatur on this.”

Xi’s involvement could hearten some people, Yang said, and help local leaders ensure social stability. But this could backfire on him if the situation turns out to be worse than thought, or if it has a big economic impact.

Some of this impact may take time to see.

China’s local governments, including Wuhanand surrounding Hubei province, are being crushed by huge debt loads, and the financial toll of this outbreak could push them over the edge.

 

Beginning early Thursday, all outbound travel was banned from Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, in an unprecedented action by China to try to contain the virus. The People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, reported that “no people in Wuhan … will be allowed to leave the city.”

Hubei authorities on Wednesday asked the central government for emergency assistance of 40 million surgical masks, 5 million protection suits and 5,000 infrared thermometers.

 

“If the disease was spread to some of the poor provinces that are heavily indebted, it would mean substantial additional outlays for local governments, especially at the municipal and county level where the budget is really, really strapped,” said Victor Shih, an expert on China’s political economy at the University of California at San Diego.s

That may mean that promised bridges and roads will not be built, he said, adding to percolating discontent about the slowing economy.

“Even if people are unhappy, they’re obviously not going to rise up or anything,” Shih said.

The increasingly iron-fisted Xi, who has scrapped term limits so he can theoretically rule this one-party state for the rest of his life, has put in place strict controls and surveillance to make sure there is no dissent.

“But if the disease continues to spread in China, and if we see clear signs of policy failures to deal with this kind of virus,” Shih said, “I think the educated public will be very disappointed and disillusioned about the effect of concentrating so much power in the hands of one person.

-----

Sorry for the long read.  All of the above came from the article link.  I tried to edit it some to keep it smaller, but it is hard to do from my phone. I also cannot create an empty quote box from my phone to put it in.

As I have said the number 17 came from the provincial government not the central government and that article has been a few days old. The Federal government has come in and things are being done very differently.

[Kragar]

2 minutes ago, smokes said:

As I have said the number 17 came from the provincial government not the central government and that article has been a few days old. The Federal government has come in and things are being done very differently.

It may be as you say.  Many governments would want to control the narrative on something like this.  But with China's recent history of misinformation and media control, I hope you can forgive some skepticism to official reports.

 

Btw, thanks for keeping us in the loop on how things are going there.  The pictures of empty streets were a little chilling.  Stay safe!

[nuckin_futz]

Coronavirus - Canada has advised to avoid all travel to Hubei province in China

Mon 27 Jan 2020 22:02:43 GMT

 

Canada has advised Canadians not to travel to Hubei (Wuhan is a city in this province) citing coronavirus related heavy restrictions on travel.

******************************

 

Coronavirus case confirmed in Germany - its first

Mon 27 Jan 2020 23:23:47 GMT

 

German media report the first confirmed case

• man from the district of Starnberg
• in a clinically good condition and is medically monitored and isolated

Via Süddeutsche Zeitung, a daily newspaper in German

***********************

 

Coronavirus - China railway traffic, passenger flights on the first day of lunar new year down big time y/y

Mon 27 Jan 2020 23:44:38 GMT

 

 

FT with the stats snippet: 

• China railway traffic and passenger flights on Saturday, the first day of lunar new year, both fell about 42% compared with the same day last year

And:

• China's leaders are bracing for a blow to first-quarter economic growth
• coronavirus weighs on consumption, travel and manufacturing,
• financial capital Shanghai has ordered companies not to reopen until February 10
• manufacturing hub of Suzhou has postponed the return to work of millions of migrant labourers for up to a week