Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

Coronavirus outbreak


CBH1926

Recommended Posts

 

3 minutes ago, redhdlois said:

I flew home from Maui last night on Westjet.  Bumped my flight from March 17th.

I feel fine atm, but am on day 1 of self-isolation.   

Wife looked into it, couldn't get a plane more than 6 hours earlier than her original so is just sticking with her flight.  I know shes in Hawaii, don't know if it was Maui or not though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Russ said:

 

Wife looked into it, couldn't get a plane more than 6 hours earlier than her original so is just sticking with her flight.  I know shes in Hawaii, don't know if it was Maui or not though.

I was lucky on many counts.  On Friday I saw things were starting to escalate, so I felt it would be a good idea to get outta dodge.

I wasn’t able to change my flight online, but after several attempts on the phone, I got through to Westjet and waited only about 15 minutes until I spoke with an agent....I was able to get on a flight the next day (yesterday).  At that time, it was not full, but it was at flight time.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, redhdlois said:

I was lucky on many counts.  On Friday I saw things were starting to escalate, so I felt it would be a good idea to get outta dodge.

I wasn’t able to change my flight online, but after several attempts on the phone, I got through to Westjet and waited only about 15 minutes until I spoke with an agent....I was able to get on a flight the next day (yesterday).  At that time, it was not full, but it was at flight time.  

Good to hear,m once wife gets back we will be isolated starting wednesday for a couple weeks then hopefully *cross my fingers but probably not going to happen* I can go back to work right after that as I have been wanting to work for months now haha and I really don't want to spend more time at home!

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, inane said:

 

 

 

I assume you can also attribute some of that to Lodi having half the population of Bergamo. 
 

That being said it is the highest priority to start implementing lock downs and all work together as a country to flatten the curve and help our health care systems and the hero’s that will be fighting this on the front line.

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Petey40 said:

I assume you can also attribute some of that to Lodi having half the population of Bergamo. 
 

That being said it is the highest priority to start implementing lock downs and all work together as a country to flatten the curve and help our health care systems and the hero’s that will be fighting this on the front line.

True, but people with flu like symptoms need to stay home period.  Don’t go to the hospital.  It’s the friggin’ flu!  Stay home.  That’s even better for our doctors and nurses.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Petey40 said:

I assume you can also attribute some of that to Lodi having half the population of Bergamo. 
 

That being said it is the highest priority to start implementing lock downs and all work together as a country to flatten the curve and help our health care systems and the hero’s that will be fighting this on the front line.

New meaning to "Oh lord, stuck in Lodi again...."

 

 

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Alflives said:

True, but people with flu like symptoms need to stay home period.  Don’t go to the hospital.  It’s the friggin’ flu!  Stay home.  That’s even better for our doctors and nurses.  

Even if it is Covid-19 and you have tolerable symptoms don’t go, the last place you want to go is an already crowded hospital and spread it further. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

 

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

 

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

 

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

 

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

 

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

 

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

 

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

 

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

 

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

 

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

 

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

 

 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I accept that though.  If this was affecting children, and healthy people I would say go all out to protect those groups.  But it’s not.  It’s getting the old, and sickly.  That’s what’s natural, isn’t it?  

It's hard to predict what the aftermath will bring.  Hopefully it won't get as bad as Europe; mainly due to our less dense population, but it may take the economy a long while to stabilize and the fallout from that could be pretty grim.  Also, there seems to be so little info regarding whether people become immune to the virus and is there a time frame for the immunity.  Can it mutate?  There seems to be a lot of unanswered questions.  I don't think it would be a good idea to leave it to run it's course.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I accept that though.  If this was affecting children, and healthy people I would say go all out to protect those groups.  But it’s not.  It’s getting the old, and sickly.  That’s what’s natural, isn’t it?  

That’s not entirely true, there are multiple accounts from China and Italy of healthy people passing away from this illness or needing to be hospitalized. And the mild cases can range from common cold to phenomena. I think it would be a mistake to make the assumption that you will be okay because you are young and healthy especially when dealing with a novel virus. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • -SN- locked and unlocked this topic
  • -SN- featured and pinned this topic
  • -SN- unfeatured this topic
  • -SN- unpinned this topic

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...