Coronavirus outbreak

[RUPERTKBD]

It ain't over until the fat lady sings....

 

[Junkyard Dog]

Sister tested positive and lives in the same house as me, welp. 

[Warhippy]

25 minutes ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

I have hope that after the Omicron wave, this will be the end.  I have hope.

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext

COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near

 

The world is experiencing a huge wave of infection with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. Estimates based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models

¹

 suggest that on around Jan 17, 2022 there were 125 million omicron infections a day in the world, which is more than ten times the peak of the delta wave in April, 2021.

¹

 The omicron wave is inexorably reaching every continent with only a few countries in eastern Europe, North Africa, southeast Asia, and Oceania yet to start their wave of this SARS-CoV-2 variant.

¹

^,  

²

 The unprecedented level of infection suggests that more than 50% of the world will have been infected with omicron between the end of November, 2021 and the end of March, 2022.

¹

 Although IHME models suggest that global daily SARS-CoV-2 infections have increased by more than 30 times from the end of November, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022, reported COVID-19 cases in this period have only increased by six times.

¹

^,  

²

 Because the proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or mild has increased compared with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants,

³

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⁴

 the global infection-detection rate has declined globally from 20% to 5%.

¹

Understanding the burden of omicron depends crucially on the proportion of asymptomatic infections. A systematic review based on previous SARS-CoV-2 variants suggested that 40% of infections were asymptomatic.

³

 Evidence suggests that the proportion of asymptomatic infections is much higher for omicron, perhaps as high as 80–90%. Garrett and colleagues found that among 230 individuals in South Africa enrolling in a clinical trial, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2 and had the omicron variant and no symptoms.

⁴

 Assuming this prevalence of infection was representative of the population, the implied incidence compared to detected cases suggests that more than 90% of infections were asymptomatic in South Africa. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection survey estimated a point prevalence of PCR positive SARS-CoV-2 infection of 6·85% for England on Jan 6, 2022.

⁵

 Hospital admission prescreening of individuals without COVID-19 symptoms in the University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, WA, USA, did not exceed 2% throughout the COVID-19 pandemic but exceeded 10% in the week of Jan 10, 2022 (Murray CJL, unpublished). In addition to the much larger proportion of asymptomatic infections, in the USA the ratio of COVID-19 hospitalisations to detected cases hospitalised has declined by about 50% in most states compared with previous peaks.

²

 The proportion of COVID-19 patients in hospital who require intubation or are dying has declined by as much as 80–90% in Canada and South Africa.

⁶

^,  

⁷

Despite the reduced disease severity per infection, the massive wave of omicron infections means that hospital admissions are increasing in many countries and will rise to twice or more the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions of past surges in some countries according to the IHME models.

¹

 In countries where all hospital admissions are screened for COVID-19, a substantial proportion of these admissions will be among individuals coming to hospital for non-COVID-19 reasons who have asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nevertheless, infection control requirements put increased demands on hospitals. Given population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection of more than 10%, such as reported by the ONS infection survey in London, England,

⁵

 large numbers of health workers are testing positive and are required to quarantine, which puts a double pressure on hospitals. Countries will need to prioritise support for health systems in the next 4–6 weeks. Data from Greece, however, hold out hope that severe COVID-19 outcomes from the omicron wave will be limited; from Dec 21, 2021 to Jan 17, 2022 COVID-19 cases increased nearly 10 times but hospital intubations among COVID-19 hospital patients have remained the same as in December.

⁸

Surprisingly, IHME models

¹

 suggest that the transmission intensity of omicron is so high that policy actions—eg, increasing mask use, expanding vaccination coverage in people who have not been vaccinated, or delivering third doses of COVID-19 vaccines—taken in the next weeks will have limited impact on the course of the omicron wave. IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%. Increasing COVID-19 vaccine boosters or vaccinating people who have not yet been vaccinated is unlikely to have any substantial impact on the omicron wave because by the time these interventions are scaled up the omicron wave will be largely over. Only in countries where the omicron wave has not yet started can expanding mask use in advance of the wave have a more substantial effect. These interventions still work to protect individuals from COVID-19, but the speed of the omicron wave is so fast that policy actions will have little effect on its course globally in the next 4–6 weeks. The omicron wave appears to crest in 3–5 weeks after the exponential increase in reported cases begins.

¹

^,  

²

 As of Jan 17, 2022, omicron waves were peaking in 25 countries in five WHO regions and in 19 states in the USA.

²

 It is expected that the omicron peak will occur in most countries between now and the second week of February, 2022.

¹

 The latest omicron peaks are expected to come in the countries where the omicron wave has not yet started, such as in eastern Europe and southeast Asia. Actions to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing, for example, are likely to increase disruption by having more individuals excluded from work or school, but are unlikely to impact the course of the omicron wave. In the era of omicron, I believe that COVID-19 control strategies need to be reset. Given the speed and intensity of the omicron wave, in my view efforts to contact trace seem to be futile.

A question remains in relation to the countries pursuing zero COVID-19 strategies, such as China and New Zealand. China has local omicron transmission in January, 2022.

⁹

^,  

¹⁰

 Given the high transmissibility of omicron, it seems unlikely that China or New Zealand will be able to permanently exclude the omicron wave. For zero COVID-19 countries, the question will be one of timing. Later omicron surges will allow further progress on increasing vaccination coverage and better understanding of the impact of the omicron variant in a fairly immunologically naive population.

By March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission.

 

I use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal efforts over the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months.

The impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day.

¹¹

 The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not.

One can hope.

 

But, at the same time it's possible we see something even worse pop up

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, johngould21 said:

For all the time and money it's going to cost to drive across the Country to protest mandates for truckers/vaccines. Why not spend half an hour at a clinic and get vaccinated? The ignorance of these morons is beyond belief.

I would also recommend these guys also spend about 5+ years working with/producing and fully understanding the type of vehicle transport and all the components housed within that they are driving. I mean if you don't understand exactly what type of components are working under your hood how can you trust that you can operate a 80,000 pound vehicle and put yourself at risk every day.

 

Antivaxxer = moron

 

As you say these guys really take the cake when it comes to stupidity! The ignorance of these morons is beyond belief. It really is, it's embarrassing to be associated with these people as a species.

[thedestroyerofworlds]

23 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

I would also recommend these guys also spend about 5+ years working with/producing and fully understanding the type of vehicle transport and all the components housed within that they are driving. I mean if you don't understand exactly what type of components are working under your hood how can you trust that you can operate a 80,000 pound vehicle and put yourself at risk every day.

 

Antivaxxer = moron

 

As you say these guys really take the cake when it comes to stupidity! The ignorance of these morons is beyond belief. It really is, it's embarrassing to be associated with these people as a species.

Ya, you have people calling to inquire about the anti-viral medication for treating Covid, yet will refuse the mRNA vaccine produced by...you guessed it...the same company.

 

Every one of their complaints about the vaccines applies to the treatment medications.  Yet, they seem to be ok mainlining the meds.   Stupid is as stupid does.

[JM_]

2 hours ago, stawns said:

Not sure how that applies to omicron and trying to keep schools open though.  We barely avoided a closure today, for the second time in 4 days

I'm assuming the data are telling them that kind of mitigation isn't reducing the risk. I doubt many schools will avoid a closure, at least a short one. 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Rapid test kits distributed for symptomatic school staff:

 

This week, 200,000 rapid antigen test kits are being shipped to the kindergarten-to-Grade 12 (K-12) sector for use by staff, teachers and administrators with symptoms of COVID-19.

 

Rapid antigen tests are an additional tool that can be used to support the continuity of learning in schools with the aim to reduce transmission of COVID-19.

 

The number of teaching and non-teaching staff will determine the number of tests received by each school district, independent schools and First Nation schools. In B.C., there are approximately 86,700 public school employees, 16,000 employees of independent schools and 1,000 employees in First Nation schools.

 

The Ministry of Health and the Office of the Public Health Officer continue to direct how rapid antigen tests are best used as part of the provincial pandemic response, including if additional tests will be deployed for use in the K-12 sector.

 

The allocation of test kits for the K-12 sector was received from Artron Laboratories Inc., a Burnaby-based company, and is in addition to supplies provided to medical health officers in health authorities that will continue to be used to investigate clusters and outbreaks in schools.

 

The Ministry of Education continues to engage with experts on ventilation and work with school districts to improve ventilation systems, including the deployment of HEPA filters in classrooms that do not have access to mechanical ventilation systems. Since the beginning of the pandemic, B.C. has invested $114.5 million to assist school districts in upgrading ventilation in thousands of classrooms across the province. Additional funding to support further ventilation improvements and upgrades in K-12 public schools will soon be made available.

 

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022EDUC0002-000085

[stawns]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

I'm assuming the data are telling them that kind of mitigation isn't reducing the risk. I doubt many schools will avoid a closure, at least a short one. 

I assure you we are using every tool we've got to avoid this and these new guidelines are a kick in the nuts for that.

[bishopshodan]

What a mess they have made.

Everything is clear as mud right now.

[-Vintage Canuck-]

B.C. COVID-19 pandemic update:

 

As of Thursday, Jan. 20, 2022, 89.4% (4,455,046) of eligible people five and older in B.C. have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine and 83.5% (4,161,148) have received their second dose.

 

In addition, 92.5% (4,286,419) of eligible people 12 and older in B.C. have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine, 89.8% (4,160,597) have received their second dose and 36.7% (1,700,206) have received a third dose.

 

Also, 92.8% (4,015,411) of all eligible adults in B.C. have received their first dose, 90.2% (3,902,659) have received their second dose and 39.3% (1,698,882) have received a third dose.

 

B.C. is reporting 2,150 new cases of COVID-19, for a total of 305,715 cases in the province.

 

There are 34,835 active cases of COVID-19 in the province, and 265,765 people who tested positive have recovered. Of the active cases, 891 COVID-positive individuals are in hospital and 119 are in intensive care. The remaining people are recovering at home in self-isolation.

 

The new/active cases include:

• 576 new cases in Fraser Health
  • Total active cases: 16,516
• 454 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health
  • Total active cases: 8,553
• 563 new cases in Interior Health
  • Total active cases: 6,067
• 203 new cases in Northern Health
  • Total active cases: 1,582
• 354 new cases in Island Health
  • Total active cases: 2,104
• no new cases of people who reside outside of Canada
  • Total active cases: 13

In the past 24 hours, 15 new deaths have been reported, for an overall total of 2,520.

 

The new deaths include:

• Fraser Health: five
• Vancouver Coastal Health: four
• Interior Health: two
• Island Health: four

There have been eight new health-care facility outbreaks at Queen's Park Care Centre, Lakeshore Care Centre, Baillie House, Bevan Lodge (Fraser Health), Westview Place (Interior Health), Fir Park Village, The Summit and Parkwood Court (Island Health). The outbreaks at Kinsmen Lodge, Chartwell Carlton Gardens, Amica White Rock, Peace Arch Hospital Foundation Lodge, Maple Ridge Seniors Village and Kiwanis Care Centre (Fraser Health) have been declared over, for a total of 58 facilities with ongoing outbreaks, including:

 

long-term care:

• New Vista Care Centre, Chartwell Langley Gardens, George Derby Centre, CareLife Fleetwood, Evergreen Baptist Care Society, Hilton Villa Seniors Community, Morgan Place, Mayfair Senior Living + Care, MSA Manor, Menno Hospital, Buchanan Lodge, St. Michael’s Centre, Eden Care Centre, Lakeshore Care Centre, Baillie House, Bevan Lodge (Fraser Health);
• Kopernik Lodge, St. Vincent’s Langara (Vancouver Coastal Health);
• Sun Pointe Village, Lakeview Lodge, Hamlets in Vernon, Brocklehurst Gemstone, Heritage Square, Village at Smith Creek, Westview Place (Interior Health);
• Amica Douglas House, Eden Gardens, Glenwarren Lodge, Kiwanis Village Lodge, Saanich Peninsula Hospital - long-term care, Oyster Harbour, Dufferin Place, Beacon Hill Villa, Salvation Army Sunset Lodge, James Bay Care Centre, The Heights at Mt. View, Luther Court, Veterans Memorial Lodge, Sunset Lodge, Sidney Care Home, Eagle Ridge Manor, Sidney All Care, Sunrise of Victoria, Comox Valley Seniors Village, Fir Park Village, The Summit and Parkwood Court (Island Health)

acute care:

• Surrey Memorial Hospital, Abbotsford Regional Hospital, Langley Memorial Hospital, Laurel Place, Burnaby Hospital, Peace Arch Hospital, CareLife Fleetwood, Queen's Park Care Centre (Fraser Health);
• Kelowna General Hospital (Interior Health); and
• Royal Jubilee Hospital (Island Health)

assisted or independent living:

• Joseph Creek Care Village (Interior Health)

From Jan. 12-18, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 27.0% of cases.

From Jan. 5-18, they accounted for 31.0% of hospitalizations.

 

Past week cases (Jan. 12-18) - Total 14,677

• Not vaccinated: 3,264 (22.2%)
• Partially vaccinated: 703 (4.8%)
• Fully vaccinated: 10,710 (73.0%)

Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Jan. 5-18) - Total 1,112

• Not vaccinated: 290 (26.1%)
• Partially vaccinated: 55 (4.9%)
• Fully vaccinated: 767 (69.0%)

Past week, cases per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Jan. 12-18)

• Not vaccinated: 420.1
• Partially vaccinated: 191.4
• Fully vaccinated: 302.3

Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Jan. 5-18)

• Not vaccinated: 72.1
• Partially vaccinated: 44.5
• Fully vaccinated: 16.5

Since December 2020, the Province has administered 10,276,540 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer Pediatric COVID-19 vaccines.

 

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022HLTH0002-000090

[JM_]

13 minutes ago, stawns said:

I assure you we are using every tool we've got to avoid this and these new guidelines are a kick in the nuts for that.

sorry to hear that. Maybe there's just too much community spread of this variant to be able to control it with the close contact rules being insufficient? not sure. 

[Gurn]

8 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

 891 COVID-positive individuals are in hospital and 119 are in intensive care.

 

9 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

In the past 24 hours, 15 new deaths have been reported, for an overall total of 2,520

Quoted, for those that think this is already over.

[-DLC-]

1 hour ago, stawns said:

I assure you we are using every tool we've got to avoid this and these new guidelines are a kick in the nuts for that.

Yep, it's ridiculous.

 

[Sapper]

for england they are lifting on or before march 15 the order to self isolate if you have covid

 

Although the recommend isolation for 5 days  any person with known postive covid will be permited to go to work - visit seniors - do anything they please without masking or letting anyone know they are positive

 

someone can intentionally infect as many people as they like with no reprocussions or laibility. 

I get the move to open up and we will be there soon as well. But to not require people who know they are positive ..... so by definition this means symptomatic people as all testing outside of inpatients is being halted as well - people who know they have it and are sick are free to do as they please.

 

That makes no sense and puts many people at high risk of serious illneess or death.  We are atleast a year away from allowing anyone to  be able to have active sympotmatic covid and being allowed to hide it and do as they please. Imagine a teacher or health care worker or bus driver doing this......... 

 

sadly the betting odds that the next horrific mutated variation will be coming from the UK id bet.

 

 

[-DLC-]

I'm so confused. 

 

@stawns ... help!   I've been home all week isolating with symptoms, did you get an update/rundown at your school?  If so, mind sharing?

 

This is what I'm reading from CTV:

"I continue to support public health in making those decisions," said Dix. “The issue is if you're sick, stay home."

When asked to confirm that adults who feel better can stop isolating without a timeline attached, he replied, “That’s right.”

Vaccinated adults who’ve tested positive can't stop isolating until they have been fever-free for 24 hours without medication, their symptoms have improved, and it's been at least five days since their symptoms emerged or since they received their test result. The same goes for children, regardless of their vaccination status. They are also instructed to avoid high-risk settings like long-term are facilities and group gatherings for another five days.

Unvaccinated adults must still wait 10 days since their symptoms started or they tested positive.

Published Jan. 20, 2022 5:07 p.m. PST

 

[stawns]

17 minutes ago, iwtl said:

for england they are lifting on or before march 15 the order to self isolate if you have covid

 

Although the recommend isolation for 5 days  any person with known postive covid will be permited to go to work - visit seniors - do anything they please without masking or letting anyone know they are positive

 

someone can intentionally infect as many people as they like with no reprocussions or laibility. 

I get the move to open up and we will be there soon as well. But to not require people who know they are positive ..... so by definition this means symptomatic people as all testing outside of inpatients is being halted as well - people who know they have it and are sick are free to do as they please.

 

That makes no sense and puts many people at high risk of serious illneess or death.  We are atleast a year away from allowing anyone to  be able to have active sympotmatic covid and being allowed to hide it and do as they please. Imagine a teacher or health care worker or bus driver doing this......... 

 

sadly the betting odds that the next horrific mutated variation will be coming from the UK id bet.

 

 

I don't see it, not the way the Uk is doing it.  Their plan is to our America America

[stawns]

9 minutes ago, -DLC- said:

I'm so confused. 

 

@stawns ... help!   I've been home all week isolating with symptoms, did you get an update/rundown at your school?  If so, mind sharing?

 

This is what I'm reading from CTV:

"I continue to support public health in making those decisions," said Dix. “The issue is if you're sick, stay home."

When asked to confirm that adults who feel better can stop isolating without a timeline attached, he replied, “That’s right.”

Vaccinated adults who’ve tested positive can't stop isolating until they have been fever-free for 24 hours without medication, their symptoms have improved, and it's been at least five days since their symptoms emerged or since they received their test result. The same goes for children, regardless of their vaccination status. They are also instructed to avoid high-risk settings like long-term are facilities and group gatherings for another five days.

Unvaccinated adults must still wait 10 days since their symptoms started or they tested positive.

Published Jan. 20, 2022 5:07 p.m. PST

 

That is my understanding as well.  Further to that, even if siblings/parents are positive they can still come to school until they get symptoms or test positive.  Given that people are most infectious early in their infection that just seems stupid beyond belief.  Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see that not backfiring.  It's starting to catch fire in my school, we ran out of TOCs today and admin and non enrolling teachers had to cover classes

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, stawns said:

That is my understanding as well.  Further to that, even if siblings/parents are positive they can still come to school until they get symptoms or test positive.  Given that people are most infectious early in their infection that just seems stupid beyond belief.  Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see that not backfiring.  It's starting to catch fire in my school, we ran out of TOCs today and admin and non enrolling teachers had to cover classes

I've been trying to find the rationale for this change, and its not all that clear. I have to assume its based on everyone getting exposed sooner than later. 

[-DLC-]

47 minutes ago, stawns said:

That is my understanding as well.  Further to that, even if siblings/parents are positive they can still come to school until they get symptoms or test positive.  Given that people are most infectious early in their infection that just seems stupid beyond belief.  Perhaps I'm missing something, but I don't see that not backfiring.  It's starting to catch fire in my school, we ran out of TOCs today and admin and non enrolling teachers had to cover classes

Yep, we're at the same point you guys are....I can't see this improving over the next while.

 

Thanks, it seems the easy way for people to carry on, business as usual, is to avoid testing so they can "self monitor" without guidelines.  I liked it better when they had to stay away for X amount of days and until symptom free.  Now I foresee a whole lot of "no, really...I feel fine".

[-DLC-]

5 minutes ago, JM_ said:

I've been trying to find the rationale for this change, and its not all that clear. I have to assume its based on everyone getting exposed sooner than later. 

I understand it's based on how difficult it is to keep kids home from school (especially with working parents), but is that fair to school staff?  How's it going to be when we're so short staffed that everyone has to stay home?