Coronavirus outbreak

[86Viking]

3 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Yes but only in one of these.

 

 

That would be fun and very entertaining to see people trying to get around inside one of these!

[Gurn]

4 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Yes they know. I told them on the 2nd and 3rd calls. She would not outright say they don't have enough tests but that is certainly how it sounded.

 

I hope you are correct and that it happens very soon so we can get back to work to help out co-workers as more and more are having to self isolate.

Have you tried to get your employer to help out? Seems they would do what it takes to get you back working.?

Sad part is it is safer for you at home, but you are needed at work.

 

 

Hope people support the heath care workers next time they ask for a raise.

[86Viking]

5 minutes ago, gurn said:

Have you tried to get your employer to help out? Seems they would do what it takes to get you back working.?

Sad part is it is safer for you at home, but you are needed at work.

 

 

Hope people support the heath care workers next time they ask for a raise.

Wasn't Alberta planning to cut thousands of Nurse jobs soon? Was told third hand they have now put that on hold to deal with this Virus....Sure hope the community and Federal Government doesn't allow that to happen once this is over!

Want to save $............cut all the Managerial type positions at every single Municipality. It is unbelievable how many "supervisors" are in those type of positions. If people only knew how much they made vs what they do....That is useless waste of $. To cut Nurse positions is just idiotic!

[Down by the River]

1 hour ago, DeNiro said:

Yea but these stats only mean something if they’re accurate.

 

Scaring people into thinking that 4% of people who get it die is not the right thing to do at this time.

 

Only time will tell what the actual number is, but for now it doesn’t change the fact that we need to take serious measures to help minimize the death toll.

Go talk to an epidemiologist. I do all the time, since their department was right down the hall from my office... well not anymore anyways, since I cleaned out my office this morning and nobody from Health Sciences is at the university anymore... except for those in the labs actually doing work on COVID-19. 

 

You are always working from numbers that are wrong. Nobody is disputing that. The idea that numbers need to be perfect before research can be done would result in almost no research being done anywhere. You can look at the numbers and understand that limitations exist. You think through those limitations and consider how much of an impact they have on your ability to make the specific conclusions that you want to make. Everyone will be underestimating the prevalence. No matter how far we go, the ability to estimate the prevalence will always be wrong because most countries won't be able to test everyone with symptoms. Some people will be asymptomatic, and so on.

 

TLDR; If you wait for perfect numbers, you will be waiting a lifetime. It is irresponsible to say that 4% of people with COVID-19 in the Netherlands will die. It is not irresponsible to begin to wonder why the Netherlands is higher than most despite being a very healthy country with a solid medical system. 

[High and Inside]

2 hours ago, coastal.view said:

this is from yesterday? or the day before ?

 

the usa stats are so troubling

they are exploding exponentially

the daily increases are astronomical

they are currently 20x canada (should only be 10x)

and this will get much much worse down there

 

 

I don’t know where you are getting your numbers from. The USA is only about 2.25 times Canada. If you take cases per 1 million people of population ours is about 38 and the USA is 98. That’s the number if you want to compare. Plus most of the cases in the USA are in NYC and it’s so dense there and hard to shut down that it inevitable they would have a harder time controlling the spread. 

[Gurn]

18 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

It is irresponsible to say that 4% of people with COVID-19 in the Netherlands will die.

Correct.

However, it is accurate to say "So far, based on those people that have been tested x percent have died".

The thing that obviously skews the numbers is a lot of people will get the virus but will not get tested as they will not get really sick and need to get the test done.

 

I'd like to see a proper health authority, using existing data,  or their years of experience, torelease  a number indicating roughly how many folk will get the virus but not require testing.

This would seem to be a question that is very important.

 

[High and Inside]

1 hour ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Yeah...that is the problem. They should test those with flu symptoms because we already know 80% of people will only have those minor symptoms.

 

Because of the lack of tests, many emergency services workers are now having to self isolate for 14 days and taking themselves out of the group of people that can help during these times.

 

Does that not seem like a major flaw in how Doc Bonnie is responding?  And as more and more people get covid, which will happen, more and more emergency services workers will be off for at least 2 weeks further reducing the help out there.

 

Pathetic response by our health system and Bonnie imo.  Emergency services workers having to self isolate should be getting tested immediately so that those that don't have covid can get back to the critical work in only a few days and not 2 full weeks.  As stated, it is either because we are not prepared and do not have enough tests or do not have enough people to administer the tests.

 

I don't know which of those problems has occurred, but I believe we probably have too few tests. That is just not good enough from our top doctor. 

I agree with you it’s a problem. Test, test and test. One of the proven ways of beating this thing and although there is other ways they aren’t very tolerable in western societies. 

[Down by the River]

5 minutes ago, gurn said:

Correct.

However, it is accurate to say "So far, based on those people that have been tested x percent have died".

The thing that obviously skews the numbers is a lot of people will get the virus but will not get tested as they will not get really sick and need to get the test done.

 

I'd like to see a proper health authority, using existing data,  or their years of experience, torelease  a number indicating roughly how many folk will get the virus but not require testing.

This would seem to be a question that is very important.

 

You can look at Germany and look at the Netherlands. Very distinct death rates, but of course its also very early. That said, how long do you wait until you decide "okay, these discrepancies might be telling us something, maybe we need to look at whether things are being done differently"? You don't need to panic, you don't need to scare anyone, you just need to look at the systems in place to try to understand whether this initial discrepancy is more than just noise. If it isn't, you might have time to change things and in turn bring down the death rate. 

[Gurn]

11 minutes ago, High and Inside said:

The USA is only about 2.25 times Canada.

https://www.covid-19canada.com/       as of 3/22/20 11:30 PDT

 

US       30,291 cases    388 deaths

Canada     1,426 cases   19 deaths

 

30, 291 divide by 1,426 =  21.24    Very close to each other, in fact the link says both counties are at 1.3% mortality.

388  divide by 19   = 20.42

 

iirc The US population is between 9 and 10 times that of Canada.

[Gurn]

6 minutes ago, Down by the River said:

You can look at Germany and look at the Netherlands. Very distinct death rates, but of course its also very early. That said, how long do you wait until you decide "okay, these discrepancies might be telling us something, maybe we need to look at whether things are being done differently"? You don't need to panic, you don't need to scare anyone, you just need to look at the systems in place to try to understand whether this initial discrepancy is more than just noise. If it isn't, you might have time to change things and in turn bring down the death rate. 

I agree. Germany has really surprised me, something different there  seems to be going on. Either they are testing more, less sick than other counties, their age demographics, perhaps they have a higher amount of health care workers, or previously empty proper beds and equipment.

I wonder if any health agency is keeping track of the amount of negative test results?

[Ghostsof1915]

4 hours ago, Shift-4 said:

New cases going boom south of the border   

Hope Pumpkinhead goes boom. 

[RUPERTKBD]

Amidst all the bleak news and uncertainty, I'd like to thank @Templeton Peck for his regular injections of humor.

 

My favorite so far is the "Where's Waldo" one....

[PhillipBlunt]

Mentally hitting a wall today. 

[RUPERTKBD]

Just now, PhillipBlunt said:

Mentally hitting a wall today. 

Here Phil, try this:

 

Spoiler

 

[Ghostsof1915]

 

At least there's no mushroom clouds.....

[canuck73_3]

2 hours ago, coastal.view said:

this is from yesterday? or the day before ?

 

the usa stats are so troubling

they are exploding exponentially

the daily increases are astronomical

they are currently 20x canada (should only be 10x)

and this will get much much worse down there

 

 

Because Florida

[Gurn]

4 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Mentally hitting a wall today. 

For me, it was earlier this a.m. Too cold out to do much of a solo walk. 

Managed to go out this afternoon, talked to the folks at the worksite, from across the road. Suggested the fella in the ticket booth put on a coat and gloves, then crank the air conditioning up; as it is supplied from the roof of the building. At least that way air will flow out of his booth when he opens the window to do a transaction.

Traffic is way down, but the two people on shore seemed to be ok. taking turns in the lunch room, and maintaining what distance they can.

 

I go back to work on the 28th morning

[High and Inside]

10 minutes ago, gurn said:

https://www.covid-19canada.com/       as of 3/22/20 11:30 PDT

 

US       30,291 cases    388 deaths

Canada     1,426 cases   19 deaths

 

30, 291 divide by 1,426 =  21.24    Very close to each other, in fact the link says both counties are at 1.3% mortality.

388  divide by 19   = 20.42

 

iirc The US population is between 9 and 10 times that of Canada.

I get my numbers from the cases per million people on the far right side. That says 38 and 98 per million people.which would be slightly higher then 2.25

 

Going off your numbers your saying that there is 21 cases for every 1 case we have but they have 10x the population so comparing apples to apples we would be more like 10 cases versus there 20 cases which is about 2x. Not sure exactly what it is but you have to factor in population to get an accurate numbers. Also don’t forget New York City has over half there cases and just think about the way they live and you can see they have a problem. I do think though when all is said and done the US will be hurting badly. Trump has no idea what he is doing and has failed to acknowledge the seriousness of this. Now he is already claiming a cure with a medication that has had zero testing. More then likely he is just screwing the people over that have lupus and malaria and need those drugs to live. 

[Templeton Peck]

[BPA]

1 hour ago, EmilyM said:

I don't mean to disrespect your family members who have dedicated themselves to the medical industry, and my heartfelt gratitude go to all those like your family members standing on the frontline.

But many health experts have already refuted things like the "10-second test" and many people who have tested positive do not show many breathing related symptoms at all.

I feel it's dangerous to pass along false hope as it leads to asymptomatic people negligently passing it onto others.

I'm not a doctor.  Just passing along info that was told to me.

 

If you show symptoms, self-isolate for 14 days.  If you have symptoms and breathing difficulties, get tested.  The health care system will get overloaded if everyone with a cold/common flu goes to the hospital.  The hospitals need those beds for critically ill patients. And there's only so much hospital staff can do as well.  Can't expect them to work overtime and ignore their own health.