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4 minutes ago, Cerridwen said:

The hospitals are overwhelmed with patients. They cannot treat anymore because of lack of equipment and room. Doctors and nurses are getting sick and burnt out.

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 
 

sorry, 3% not .03. 

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Just now, J-Dizzle said:

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 

The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths.

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1 minute ago, J-Dizzle said:

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 

There's no easy answer right now. It could be hitting certain areas or populations that are more prone, or it could be far more prevalent than testing has been able to show (lack of tests, no staff etc). That likely won't be known until later when the right people can look at it in better circumstances. 

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1 minute ago, Petey40 said:

The Italians have an aging population and a lot of them smoke which is heavily contributing to the deaths.

Gotcha.  We of course also have a somewhat older population as well.  
 

So basically at this point it’s wash your hands and don’t go out of your way to go places you might get infected. 

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13 minutes ago, Glug Datt said:

that's friggin brutal.. I thought most infected people could self isolate & ride it out at home.. does every patient in Italy actually need to be in a hospital? what happens if someone comes in with a legit problem (heart attack, industrial accident)? 

In China, cancer patients were being turned away from treatments, etc - due to no doctors. They also designated some hospitals specifically for coronavirus, with others continuing regular treatments. I don't know if N.A. has that capacity.....

 

Vancouver Island has what - three-four primary hospitals? (Comox, Nanaimo, Victoria x2). Even if only 5% of the population on Vancouver Island got it - that's 43500 / 875,000 infected, with maybe 20% of that needing intense hospital / critical care treatments (~10000). That's on top of regular hospitalizations....

Edited by Canadian
Math error. Even higher.
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1 minute ago, StealthNuck said:

There's no easy answer right now. It could be hitting certain areas or populations that are more prone, or it could be far more prevalent than testing has been able to show (lack of tests, no staff etc). That likely won't be known until later when the right people can look at it in better circumstances. 

It is also possible people aren’t reporting it IF it’s not as serious.... I can certainly think of certain areas in our own province that could be more susceptible though.... lots of seniors in the Okanagan.... a community like Quesnel is relatively retirement oriented as well. 

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For clarity, the reason China was able to contain this for the moment (the future remains to be seen) is because of the draconian measures put in place and the additional 16 makeshift hospitals and 10,000 healthcare professionals sent to deal with it. The reason South Korea has been able to contain it is they have been testing at a higher rate than any other country so they’ve been able to limit community spread. Italy was too late and they’re seeing the consequences of it, Canada and the USA are trending similar to Italy and absolutely need to step up there measures or this will get out of control before they know what hit them. 
 

 

Edited because sources say China sent 10,000 additional healthcare professionals not 30,000 my mistake.

Edited by Petey40
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17 minutes ago, Glug Datt said:

that's friggin brutal.. I thought most infected people could self isolate & ride it out at home.. does every patient in Italy actually need to be in a hospital? what happens if someone comes in with a legit problem (heart attack, industrial accident)? 

Read above you, that's a pretty stark picture.  Apparently it happens fast and many many people cannot breath without ventilators.

 

My town of 40 000 has 4 ventilators, apparently.

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16 minutes ago, J-Dizzle said:

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 
 

sorry, 3% not .03. 

As others said, they have an older population.  The boomer population in North America is massive.  

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2 minutes ago, Petey40 said:

For clarity, the reason China was able to contain this for the moment (the future remains to be seen) is because of the draconian measures put in place and the additional 19 makeshift hospitals and 30,000 healthcare professionals sent to deal with it. The reason South Korea has been able to contain it is they have been testing at a higher rate than any other country so they’ve been able to limit community spread. Italy was too late and they’re seeing the consequences of it, Canada and the USA are trending similar to Italy and absolutely need to step up there measures or this will get out of control before they know what hit them. 

South Korea had/has drive thru testing centres, was very swift in its testing measures. 

USA has a horrible medical system in which people wont get tested because they cant afford the associated costs of getting tested. 

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24 minutes ago, Hectic said:

I really don't understand what's going on here. this is absolutely ridiculous. people are following the media frenzy and this is getting a bit out of hand. 

 

is cancelling the NBA season going to stop the spread of the virus? No, it's a virus, it's going to spread anyways. I don't think putting life on pause because of a virus makes any sense - people who are more susceptible can make that decision for themselves, but to me this just shows how people will just follow whatever information they head in the news and absolutely lose their minds. 

 

I can see why limiting the spread of the virus is something that people should be doing, for all diseases, but for this to be overblown to the point of actually cancelling major sports leagues and to the point where the stock market is taking a huge hit and toilet paper is comically in demand.. I'm just having a hard time understanding how the majority of our society today is responding to this the way that they are. 

On the contrary I think suspending all sports or playing games behind closed doors is a sensible measure. We've already seen it in many European countries. That many people gathering in close proximity is a recipe for disaster. 

 

Social distancing measures can be implemented without hysteria. People in many countries are just too stupid to do so. 

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30 minutes ago, Hectic said:

I really don't understand what's going on here. this is absolutely ridiculous. people are following the media frenzy and this is getting a bit out of hand. 

 

is cancelling the NBA season going to stop the spread of the virus? No, it's a virus, it's going to spread anyways. I don't think putting life on pause because of a virus makes any sense - people who are more susceptible can make that decision for themselves, but to me this just shows how people will just follow whatever information they head in the news and absolutely lose their minds. 

 

I can see why limiting the spread of the virus is something that people should be doing, for all diseases, but for this to be overblown to the point of actually cancelling major sports leagues and to the point where the stock market is taking a huge hit and toilet paper is comically in demand.. I'm just having a hard time understanding how the majority of our society today is responding to this the way that they are. 

I'm not sure how people aren't getting that it's as much about managing the health care system than it is about containment, if not more.  It took about a week for hospitals in Italy to become overrun and now drs and nurses are becoming infected and infecting others.

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53 minutes ago, J-Dizzle said:

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 
 

sorry, 3% not .03. 

From what I've read last week or so its because Italians have higher percentage of elderly population.

 

Mortality rate for the elderly is upto 15%.

 

Plus there are thousands of people who get virus and recover without getting hospitalized or tested..

So actual mortality rate is close to 1%

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1 hour ago, J-Dizzle said:

Fair.... so why is Italy’s rate of death showing around 8% when the overall rate is .03?  Again, this is a legitimate question I’m actually curious.... seems like there has to be some extenuating circumstances or something missing? 
 

sorry, 3% not .03. 

Fair question that has everyone in both public and government officials confused. 

 

If you don't mind reading, this article shows why. Essentially, depending on what public health measures are in place and at what point of the epidemic curve a country is on, you will get different effects and therefore fatality rates.  Death rate inside Hubei is different than outside but still within China, for example.  The rates also vary depending on the population infected (age, comorbidities).  But once epidemic overwhelms the health care system capacity, people will more likely die due to inadequate resource and not just because of the viral infection (that is, had the hospital wasn't overwhelmed, they would have survived.)

 

We also don't know what some comorbidities like obesity has on it, but it's likely making it worse. North Americans are more obese and that may result in higher deaths or severe disease.  In China, high percentage of smokers among older men made it worse. 

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

This is what you can conclude:

  • Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
  • Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

 

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Edited by Jaimito
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It is almost certain the season will get suspended now.  How would the NHL not follow the lead of the NBA, it seems like it would be a huge liability issue.

 

If there aren’t playoffs I wonder if the draft is run based on last year’s results or by current winning percentage for this season.

 

On the good side, if it follows other similar viruses, it starts fading when we weather comes.

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Let’s not forget that the other flu strains cause around 290 000 - 650 000 deaths every year.  If that was reported every year with maps and death rates people would also freak out:

 

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

This strain has a slightly higher impact and is more contagious and the issue is the potential overwhelming of health care setups where they can’t help everyone at once.  Definitely worth the precautions but don’t forget how deadly the other strains of flu are.

Edited by Kobayashi Maru
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