Coronavirus outbreak

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

A lot more people potentially in the next couple weeks. Makes world's of sense IMO if the plan is to slow it down (it should be).

But it can't exactly be slowed down.  It's down to the people now.  The government can close the borders which is all well and good.  But it's already here already.  it's like buying a fire extinguisher AFTER your kitchen burned down.

 

While it makes sense it's too little too late.  A shut down should have been done 2-3 weeks ago.  While it makes sense vocalizing it, it's only prolonging the inevitable.

[Boudrias]

9 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

You can stop that.  Basic information should never be discounted simply because you don't like the source.  That's why the Western Hemisphere is currently full of ignorant people.  Because they refuse to accept a story with statistically correct information in it because it doesn't align with their political beliefs.

 

Knock that crap off.

 

if you have an issue with it at all fine, but pretending it's not a credible source of information coming from JH resource is just ignorant

If it was 5 years ago I might agree with you. Unfortunately my faith in truth of much I see in print media is not there anymore. I think most material has a political agenda whether from the left or right.

[guntrix]

11 hours ago, Petey40 said:

I feel the need to get some facts straight about this virus. Not trying to cause panic or fear monger but people should take this serious and be sufficiently worried enough to take the proper precautions. 
 

As of right now the WHO has a mortality rating of 3.4 percent https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20.

Which it’s early but as that stands is a mortality rate significantly higher than the flu which is around 0.01 average. 
 

The basic reproduction number (R0) of Covid-19 is 2.2. In comparison the flu hovers around 1.3. Any number over 2 causes the capability of exponential growth. 
 

We have no vaccine and according to experts a vaccine is likely 12-18 months out and that alone would be break records for the speed of a vaccine being developed . The traditional speed for a vaccine development is 15-20 years. 
 

As of right now this virus has a mortality rating higher in all age groups than any influenza virus we currently deal with so any comparison to the average flu is wrong. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/.

 

 

As China and South Korea has shown this virus is containable, but the measures China took simply won’t work in any western country because we don’t live under a authoritative regime with circumstances being vastly different. What can work is the measures we’re already seeing take place in harsh lock downs and public gatherings being postponed or cancelled completely. 
 

This new study released yesterday shows that the virus can live in the air for up to 3 hours, it also shows the longevity of the virus on other surfaces as well. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1
 

Now keep in mind that this is an early report so it’s not 100% confirmed yet. 
 

Those comparing this to SARS are actually closer to being right than the people comparing it to the flu because Covid-19 is actually a part of the SARS family not the influenza family. 
 

Anyways that’s all for now. Be careful, think of those around you and don’t panic. 

 

There needs to be further clarification on this post. Due to the fact that over 80% of cases are mild, there are MANY cases that aren't reported. So the 3.4% mortality rate reported by the World Health Organization is actually much lower. Simply put, you can only record what's on your radar. People aren't going to report to the hospital for a runny nose or a mild cough. 

 

Quote

The fact that there are so many mild cases is a real hallmark of this disease and makes it so different from SARS,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Center for Health Security. “It’s also really challenging. Most of our surveillance is oriented around finding people who require medical intervention.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html

 

Quote

 

The fewer people you test for a disease, the fewer infections you are going to measure. In the United States, until this week, the only people being tested for the disease were those who had traveled to China or were known to have had contact with other ill people. Those strict standards were driven in part by a shortage of reliable tests. But we now know that there were many infected people in the country who weren’t being counted.

 

 

Think about that problem on a much larger scale. If there were a magical way to test everyone in the world for the disease, we would know exactly how many people have the infection. Discovering every case would tend to drive down the fatality rate, since the number of deaths would be divided over a much larger number of living infected people. There is increasing evidence that some people infected with coronavirus have few or no symptoms. Those people are the least likely to seek or receive tests.

 

Limited testing in many countries means that the reported death rates probably skew high.

“Since most cases are mild, and testing has not been universal, almost by definition we are failing to detect and therefore count all of the cases,” said Mark Lurie, an associate professor of epidemiology at Brown University.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html

And this is coming from leaders in the field. 

I repeat, part of the problem is the paranoia, and this, in part, is due to the vast amount of misinformation and ignorance that is going around. If you're not elderly and don't have any underlying health concerns you have little to worry about. Doing your part is not only limited to staying away from large groups and washing your hands, but also not participating in all the fear mongering. 

[nuckin_futz]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

There will be no bouncing for a week or two.  See what's going on out there right now?  

Been saying like a broken record the Fed will come to the rescue.Here you go. The Fed arrives with a fu**ing bazooka............

 

New York Fed to conduct purchases across a range of maturities

Thu 12 Mar 2020 16:55:57 GMT

 

Fed launches fresh repos

The New York Fed will conduct a $500B 3-month repo operation at 1:30 pm ET, among others. They will also expand Treasury purchases beyond bills -- that's fresh QE.

 

That's a big number. It's good the Fed is on the ball but it also suggests there are major liquidity strains.

Someone on CNBC noted that municipal bonds are being sold. That isn't mom & pop investors adjusting their portfolios: It's someone who needs liquidity.

 

more in the link

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/new-york-fed-to-conduct-purchases-across-a-range-of-maturities-20200312]

 

*************

 

The Fed will not risk a 2008 style credit crunch.

[Boudrias]

4 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

There will be no bouncing for a week or two.  See what's going on out there right now?  

Stunningly bad. My best laid plans are going up in smoke. 

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

But it can't exactly be slowed down.  It's down to the people now.  The government can close the borders which is all well and good.  But it's already here already.  it's like buying a fire extinguisher AFTER your kitchen burned down.

 

While it makes sense it's too little too late.  A shut down should have been done 2-3 weeks ago.  While it makes sense vocalizing it, it's only prolonging the inevitable.

I'm sorry but stopping potentially infected people from spreading it faster in new and possibly multiple areas they're traveling to is exactly what will slow it down.

 

I'm not suggesting it will stop anything. It will (help) slow it down. I honestly don't know how or why you're even arguing this?

[Tortorella's Rant]

The Chinese have stopped reporting their numbers. That or they literally went from a couple thousand of cases a day to zero overnight.

[Tre Mac]

6 minutes ago, aliboy said:

 

Original or Extra Tasty Crispy

[J-Dizzle]

17 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

His wife Sophie is apparently showing symptoms of flu like qualities.  As such he has opted to self quarantine.  

 

If you think investor confidence was shaken before....

Oh man.... any time a politician of any stripe 'self quarantine's' the joke possibilities are endless.  

 

 

[Shift-4]

48 minutes ago, Canada Hockey Place said:

Canada is actually doing comparatively well. https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/could-canada-be-flattening-the-curve-of-coronavirus-cases/

 

 

 

This graph actually concerns me. When we are that much of an outlier I am concerned there is something wrong with the data.

 

Or as my good friend @nuckin_futz would say  "just wait"

[Canadian]

Just now, Tortorella's Rant said:

The Chinese have stopped reporting their numbers. That or they literally went from a couple thousand of cases a day to zero overnight.

They are still reporting. The entire country has been basically on lock-down for a month. Wuhan, the epicenter, has been on lock-down for 52 days now. No one allowed to leave their area. Tell every person to not leave their home in BC for 2 months, and I'm sure BC will eventually get down to zero too!

 

And now, all incoming arrivals to China of ANYONE from ANYWHERE must self-quarantine automatically for 14 days.

 

I'm not saying that there probably haven't been under-reported cases due to people having mild symptoms and staying at home, but it's not a smoke-screen-show that many media members may wish to push.

 

[Petey40]

2 minutes ago, guntrix said:

There needs to be further clarification on this post. Due to the fact that over 80% of cases are mild, there are MANY cases that aren't reported. So the 3.4% mortality rate reported by the World Health Organization is actually much lower. Simply put, you can only record what's on your radar. People aren't going to report to the hospital for a runny nose or a mild cough. 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/most-coronavirus-cases-are-mild-complicating-efforts-to-respond/2020/02/12/213603a4-4dc2-11ea-bf44-f5043eb3918a_story.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html

And this is coming from leaders in the field. 

I repeat, part of the problem is the paranoia, and this, in part, is due to the vast amount of misinformation and ignorance that is going around. If you're not elderly and don't have any underlying health concerns you have little to worry about. Doing your part is not only limited to staying away from large groups and washing your hands, but also not participating in all the fear mongering. 

My question is why should it matter that there are more mild cases not being reported? As of right now all the cases tested come up with a 3.4% mortality rating. Do you think everyone goes to the hospital to report the flu every year? No of course not so there numbers would actually have a lower mortality rating as well. The mortality and hospitalization is vastly higher than any virus we deal with and is overwhelming the healthcare system. And also you should do some research on what’s happening in Italy before YOU start spreading misinformation.

 

 There are more and more reports about how they aren’t even treating over 60 anymore because younger healthy people require intubation and they have to give priority to the young healthy people. I don’t want to fear monger but these are the reports coming from medical professionals currently dealing with the situation. I’d sooner listen to them than the people not dealing with what’s going on. 

[Warhippy]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I'm sorry but stopping potentially infected people from spreading it faster in new and possibly multiple areas they're traveling to is exactly what will slow it down.

 

I'm not suggesting it will stop anything. It will (help) slow it down. I honestly don't know how or why you're even arguing this?

Let's suppose you shut down the borders.

 

What about the literally hundreds of thousands of college students with travel refunds in their pockets now travelling home to small towns across the nation?

 

Again, while it sounds good to vocalize this.  There is literally no stopping it let alone slowing the spread.  

 

The only way to really put a halt to things would be to limit any and ALL air traffic across the nation and ask those in campuses or planning to travel to not.

 

it's not feasible.  

[PhillipBlunt]

56 minutes ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

I guess we're not banning Michael Phelps then

He can go race that great white shark for reals this time. 

[Petey40]

The people that think this is paranoia and overreaction should tell that to the Italians. 

[nuckin_futz]

Italy coronavirus cases rise to 15,113 from 12,462 yesterday

Thu 12 Mar 2020 17:13:50 GMT

 

Cases rise by 2,651

Deaths in Italy have risen to 1,016. There were a total of 196 deaths yesterday but that fell to 119 today.

[SergioMomesso]

Season is suspended

['NucK™]

8 minutes ago, Shift-4 said:

This graph actually concerns me. When we are that much of an outlier I am concerned there is something wrong with the data.

 

Or as my good friend @nuckin_futz would say  "just wait"

How are we an outlier? Following Japan/US quite closely. And have to hope we follow Japan's curve rather than US

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

The only way to really put a halt to things would be to limit any and ALL air traffic across the nation and ask those in campuses or planning to travel to not.

 

it's not feasible.  

 

56 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

I honestly don't know why the government hasn't mandated something like this? All employers who have employees who can work from home, do so. Immediately.

 

Schools will be closed for a couple weeks in short order already but that could likely happen a day or two early as well.

 

In relation to Spring Break, we should also be shutting down all travel and borders IMO.

 

Not sure why we're waiting for this to become much worse...?

 

27 minutes ago, aGENT said:

I would imagine closed borders and a travel ban would help slow the progress of transmission. Particularly with Spring Break around the corner.

Yeah you're probably not going to stop every last college student in their beat up 98 Civic driving home to ma and pa from college but a wholesale shut down of flights and otherwise heavily restricted/discouraged travel and closed borders would help slow down transmission.

 

And it's entirely feasible.

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

 

 

Yeah you're probably not going to stop every last college student in their beat up 98 Civic driving home to ma and pa from college but a wholesale shut down of flights and otherwise heavily restricted/discouraged travel and closed borders would help slow down transmission.

 

And it's entirely feasible.

We can agree to disagree and that's ok.

 

but personally I am FAR more worried about the level of people that will be travelling from major urban centres with prominent cases of this to smaller areas and townships that are as of now currently unaffected