Coronavirus outbreak

[coho8888]

2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

2-4K is close to the expected increases in suicide due to unemployment. Australia is predicting 2700 extra deaths from suicide Why do you view Covid deaths more than suicide? 
 

The other thing people seem to be forgetting a large percent of the covid deaths had overlap with elderly who would have died in near term. 

 

That's a load of BS.  Just like you can say the elderly were going to die anyways from other underlying issues,  I could say that those that commit suicide probably have issues other than just Covid.  Has the Economy been hit hard?  You bet it has.  I'm  55 and this is probably the biggest thing that has happened to the economy in my lifetime, but for those who compare this to the great depression, really haven't experienced what it was like during that time.  This is nowhere near what the great depression was.  The majority here are still working, and those that have been laid off are receiving some help from our government.  More stress? Sure.  Massive increase in Suicides? not likely.

 

The strategy from the very beginning was to enact measures to manage the virus so as not to overwhelm the health care system.  Next up was to get the virus under control to lower the risk of infections enough so that we can slowly open up the economy again.  This was never about trading lives for dollars.  This was never about taking a Herd immunity strategy when we know so little about this Virus.

 

A Vaccine may take a while to come or may never come at all.  We need to learn to live with this Virus.  Whether its wearing masks, social distancing, etc..  We may come up with a way to have large gatherings even without a Vaccine.  Just as much effort should be put into finding quicker, more efficient and more accurate testing.  If  we can find a way to test a large portion of the population, we can get this thing under control.  I'm not worried.  I'm confident that things will eventually get back to normal or a new normal.  I'm more worried about the impatient idiots out there that  thinks the sky is falling because they think the economy will be shut down  forever.  

Edited May 24, 2020 by coho8888

[Fan since 82]

6 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Which is why Sweden is great controlled test variable. This claim was the major call on why we needed lockdown. Yet Sweden has shown that not locking the country down does not overwhelm their health care and their death rate is only slightly higher. All while not shutting down there economy. 
 

and I know what the refute to this is. “All lives are important so that extra 2-4K of death caused by not locking down need to be protected“ just like stawns latest post and to that I say, locking down the country will result in deaths either way.
 

Suicide rates are dramatically increasing due to the shut down. Unemployment rates have a direct correlation to suicide rates. Australia is exception a 33% increase in suicides year over year. Michigan has a 37% increase in calls to the suicide help line. Alberta saw an 18% increase in help line calls in March alone. 
 

One method the country comes out of this In shambles, broke and with a debt and that will years and years to recover from.  Where the other method the country comes out way ahead. 

The financial experts are saying that Sweden's economy will not escape the downturn just because they didn't shut down. It's part of the EU so as the EU suffers so will Sweden. Sorry no article to link, but another poster shared 3 articles sometime last week.

[nuckin_futz]

6 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Which is why Sweden is great controlled test variable. This claim was the major call on why we needed lockdown. Yet Sweden has shown that not locking the country down does not overwhelm their health care and their death rate is only slightly higher. All while not shutting down there economy. 
 

and I know what the refute to this is. “All lives are important so that extra 2-4K of death caused by not locking down need to be protected“ just like stawns latest post and to that I say, locking down the country will result in deaths either way.
 

Suicide rates are dramatically increasing due to the shut down. Unemployment rates have a direct correlation to suicide rates. Australia is exception a 33% increase in suicides year over year. Michigan has a 37% increase in calls to the suicide help line. Alberta saw an 18% increase in help line calls in March alone. 
 

One method the country comes out of this In shambles, broke and with a debt and that will years and years to recover from.  Where the other method the country comes out way ahead. 

Not sure Sweden's death rate is only 'slightly' higher. Slightly higher than who? The best comparable for any country is their neighbors. Compare Sweden's death rate with their Scandanavian neighbors and you'll find it's way higher.

 

Sweden deaths/1 million pop = 396

Norway deaths/1 million pop = 43

Finland deaths/ 1 million pop = 55

Denmark deaths/ 1 million pop = 97

 

(numbers from Worldometers)

 

Sweden is 4x the next highest.

 

Posted this a few days ago, Not sure if you saw it. So I'll post it again.............

 

Merrill Lynch is downbeat on consumer recovery from the virus - spending will likely remain highly impaired

Wed 20 May 2020 03:33:00 GMT

 

A note from Merrill Lynch comparing Denmark and Sweden which points to a significant implication according to the analysts.

Denmark and Sweden

• the two countries diverged significantly in terms of health care outcomes
• Denmark had 95 deaths per million people
• Sweden had 363 per million (among the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world)
• difference points to a large healthcare benefit from lockdown policies

What about the economic costs?

• consumer spending dropped by 25% in Sweden
• by 29% in Denmark
• The 4pp difference between the two declines quantifies the cost of lockdown policies
• 4% of consumer spending is not trivial, it is a small share of the total decrease in consumer spending
• Therefore the data indicate that most of the slowdown occurred due to voluntary social distancing rather than lockdown policies.

If the paper's results are applicable to other countries … implications:

• Even as restrictions are lifted, consumer spending will likely remain highly impaired, with services getting hit the hardest
• In summary, the economic downturn has been primarily because of the virus, not the policy response.

---

'Services hit the hardest' is what we are seeing in the data for Asian countries that are ahead of the curve on recovery. 

 

**************

 

Merrill Lynch's research indicates that it's voluntary social distancing and not lockdowns that are responsible for the collapse in consumer spending and resulting damage to economies.

 

Summation = Very little difference in the Danish and Swedish economies due to lockdown vs no lockdown. Very big difference in mortality rate. The whole argument behind the Swedish model is it has saved their economy. This is a fallacy. Their economy is laying in the gutter, right beside Denmark. It appears people in Sweden are dying for nothing.

Edited May 24, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[samurai]

4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

Not sure Sweden's death rate is only 'slightly' higher. Slightly higher than who? The best comparable for any country is their neighbors. Compare Sweden's death rate with their Scandanavian neighbors and you'll find it's way higher.

 

Sweden deaths/1 million pop = 396

Norway deaths/1 million pop = 43

Finland deaths/ 1 million pop = 55

Denmark deaths/ 1 million pop = 97

 

(numbers from Worldometers)

 

Sweden is 4x the next highest.

 

Posted this a few days ago, Not sure if you saw it. So I'll post it again.............

 

Merrill Lynch is downbeat on consumer recovery from the virus - spending will likely remain highly impaired

Wed 20 May 2020 03:33:00 GMT

 

A note from Merrill Lynch comparing Denmark and Sweden which points to a significant implication according to the analysts.

Denmark and Sweden

• the two countries diverged significantly in terms of health care outcomes
• Denmark had 95 deaths per million people
• Sweden had 363 per million (among the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world)
• difference points to a large healthcare benefit from lockdown policies

What about the economic costs?

• consumer spending dropped by 25% in Sweden
• by 29% in Denmark
• The 4pp difference between the two declines quantifies the cost of lockdown policies
• 4% of consumer spending is not trivial, it is a small share of the total decrease in consumer spending
• Therefore the data indicate that most of the slowdown occurred due to voluntary social distancing rather than lockdown policies.

If the paper's results are applicable to other countries … implications:

• Even as restrictions are lifted, consumer spending will likely remain highly impaired, with services getting hit the hardest
• In summary, the economic downturn has been primarily because of the virus, not the policy response.

---

'Services hit the hardest' is what we are seeing in the data for Asian countries that are ahead of the curve on recovery. 

 

**************

 

Merrill Lynch's research indicates that it's voluntary social distancing and not lockdowns that are responsible for the collapse in consumer spending and resulting damage to economies.

 

Summation = Very little difference in the Danish and Swedish economies due to lockdown vs no lockdown. Very big difference in mortality rate. The whole argument behind the Swedish model is it has saved their economy. This is a fallacy. Their economy is laying in the gutter, right beside Denmark. It appears people in Sweden are dying for nothing.

This has as many holes in it as a slice of Swiss cheese.

[samurai]

5 hours ago, gurn said:

BC 157 dead  x 2 = 314

Sweden  3992 dead

 

http://www.covid-19canada.com/

 

 

What is with all the Swedish love?

 

 

 

 

Can you throw the Japanese numbers in there as well. The population is 125 million.  We did this a few weeks ago if I remember. 

[Me_]

Doug Ford may yet have to make the hardest decision of the pandemic so far — shutting the province down again

 

Doug Ford says businesses can refuse anyone not wearing a mask but rights watchdog says not so fast

 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Me_

[nuckin_futz]

50 minutes ago, samurai said:

This has as many holes in it as a slice of Swiss cheese.

I'll let Merrill Lynch know. lol

[samurai]

6 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I'll let Merrill Lynch know. lol

The summation is the leaky ship.

[nuckin_futz]

35 minutes ago, samurai said:

The summation is the leaky ship.

The summation is a reiteration of what Merrill said.

[CBH1926]

2 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I'll let Merrill Lynch know. lol

So what you are saying is that I should close my IRA and trading account with them.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

8 hours ago, coho8888 said:

That's a load of BS.  Just like you can say the elderly were going to die anyways from other underlying issues,  I could say that those that commit suicide probably have issues other than just Covid. 

BS because you don't agree with a fact? 

 

Quote

Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus.

Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter at the University of Cambridge points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

 

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap".

 

"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

 

You're right at beginning we didn't have a lot of information on the virus, so it made sense to be cautious, but we have learnt a lot since.  There was a large concern about overwhelming the hospital.  We have a perfect controlled test variable in Sweden that shows that concern really was over blown, their health system didn't get overwhelmed. 

 

 

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

7 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

Not sure Sweden's death rate is only 'slightly' higher. Slightly higher than who? The best comparable for any country is their neighbors. Compare Sweden's death rate with their Scandanavian neighbors and you'll find it's way higher.

 

Sweden deaths/1 million pop = 396

Norway deaths/1 million pop = 43

Finland deaths/ 1 million pop = 55

Denmark deaths/ 1 million pop = 97

 

Ireland deaths/1 million pop = 325

Netherlands deaths/1 million pop = 340

Belgium deaths/1 million pop = 801

UK deaths/1 million pop = 501

France deaths/1 million pop = 434

 

Those numbers don't tell much of a story, so many other variables are in play.  

 

 

7 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

(numbers from Worldometers)

 

Sweden is 4x the next highest.

 

As far as the Merrill lynch piece, that's one opinion,  The federal gov't, the Alberta provincial gov't and many others disagree and believe it's going to be years, if we ever get back to the way things were.  The company I consult for has a weekly call with these political parties as well as with Deloitte, discussing exactly this.  

 

[Gurn]

4 hours ago, samurai said:

Can you throw the Japanese numbers in there as well. The population is 125 million.  We did this a few weeks ago if I remember. 

YEs, but other than yourself, and once in awhile me, nobody is touting how well Japan is doing.

http://www.covid-19canada.com/

BC  157 dead

Canada     6,380

Sweden 3,998

Japan  808

[-DLC-]

11 hours ago, Sharpshooter said:

Suicide is not a contagious virus that increases exponentially. Covid-19 is. 

I noticed this was just glided over and not addressed although other posts were.

 

@ForsbergTheGreat ?
 

 

 

[coho8888]

42 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

BS because you don't agree with a fact? 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

 

You're right at beginning we didn't have a lot of information on the virus, so it made sense to be cautious, but we have learnt a lot since.  There was a large concern about overwhelming the hospital.  We have a perfect controlled test variable in Sweden that shows that concern really was over blown, their health system didn't get overwhelmed. 

 

 

 

 

I was commenting more about the massive increase in suicide rates.  Those are predictions, not facts.  There's a crapload of stuff posted on the internet every day.  I choose to believe the experts tasked with the job of protecting us that have the cold hard facts.  You ask any of these experts whether a herd immunity strategy would work and they won't give you  a straight answer because they don't know.  Going for a Herd Immunity strategy from the onset without knowing much about the Virus is like riding out a Tsunami on a surfboard instead of expending the effort to walk to higher ground.  Sweden was lucky that they did not overwhelm their health care system.  Probably a function of how healthy overall their population is and how good their health care system is.  Your're right, we have learnt a lot about this virus but there is still a lot we don't know.  As I said, I'm optimistic that if we do the right things, we will slowly be able to get things going again.  

[Timbermen]

16 minutes ago, gurn said:

YEs, but other than yourself, and once in awhile me, nobody is touting how well Japan is doing.

http://www.covid-19canada.com/

BC  157 dead

Canada     6,380

Sweden 3,998

Japan  808

B.C.'s faired the best i think because of Bonnie Henry. She's been awesome. That Tam on the other hand, not so much.  I don't trust everyone involved because of the dirty political games they play but i trust DR. Bonnie Henry. She handled it perfectly, the ones that liked threatening people with complete control were the ones that got resistance. They can take a page out of Henry's book with how to inform the public of the guidelines she gave us that works and are showing results in our infection rate.

[stawns]

7 minutes ago, Timbermen said:

B.C.'s faired the best i think because of Bonnie Henry. She's been awesome. That Tam on the other hand, not so much.  I don't trust everyone involved because of the dirty political games they play but i trust DR. Bonnie Henry. She handled it perfectly, the ones that liked threatening people with complete control were the ones that got resistance. They can take a page out of Henry's book with how to inform the public of the guidelines she gave us that works and are showing results in our infection rate.

Such as?

[Timbermen]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Such as?

Republicrats, CNN , Fox news. They are in an election year and it shows.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Timbermen

[ForsbergTheGreat]

17 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

I noticed this was just glided over and not addressed although other posts were.

 

@ForsbergTheGreat ?
 

 

 

Does one death hold less value?  
 

There is DIRECT correlation with unemployment rate and suicides. Causation in one results causation in the other. why is a covid death more valuable than a suicide death. 
 

Incase people still don’t understand the point. It’s a double edge sword. Prevention of one results in the loss in the other. 
 

[Toews]

12 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

2-4K is close to the expected increases in suicide due to unemployment. Australia is predicting 2700 extra deaths from suicide Why do you view Covid deaths more than suicide? 
 

The other thing people seem to be forgetting a large percent of the covid deaths had overlap with elderly who would have died in near term. 

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

BS because you don't agree with a fact? 

Its just ironic because you have sat here and consistently championed a business model which involves paying the top executives of corporations millions of dollars in compensation while workers can barely earn a livable wage. In response to critics of this model you have argued that workers need to improve their skillsets to command higher pay. Now those same people are dying in droves due to this pandemic because a person's economic outlook has a big role to play in their well being both mentally and physically.

 

I am just curious and I think this is a fair question to ask. Do you actually care about these people dying or are you more concerned for the effect this pandemic is going to have on the economy? 

Edited May 24, 2020 by Toews