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7 hours ago, EdgarM said:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/lockdown-saved-no-lives-may-150639428.html

 

Lockdown saved no lives and may have cost them, Nobel Prize winner believes

"Michael Levitt, a Stanford University professor who correctly predicted the initial trajectory of the pandemic, sent messages to Professor Neil Ferguson in March telling the influential government advisor he had over-estimated the potential death toll by "10 or 12 times"."

 

He's not wrong on that part.  I was watching a video of how Ferguson has ABSOLUTELY butchered many of these models and predicted numbers out of this world and the long term was completely wrong.  He had a MAJOR amount of livestock slaughtered a few years ago, cost the UK economy BILLIONS, and a few others.  I am glad the guy got into his scandal and stepped down because his stuff was ridiculously stupid numbers always and created way larger fear than needed, hopefully his replacement can come up with better models in the future.

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9 hours ago, Ryan Strome said:

Seriously? I'm out and about every day. Work, leisure, travel, etc.

Never wear a mask or gloves.

From January 31st to May 25th, almost 4 months since Covid was truly recognized as the threat it is. Some might argue it was known earlier. Ignore the idea that SARs was to give us a heads up on the issues we would face. What we are faced with today is that Canada and the USA are ramping up their economies. Ramping up because they were never shut down. The challenge with ramping up and thusly increasing the number of people interacting with one another is protection from C-19. What is the status in Canada. Testing and PPE supply is still no where close to adequate. How are we to know what the real situation is without the basics? 

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9 hours ago, Russ said:

That is one hell of a different view than I thought that Ozarks looked like after watching the show!

To be fair, the image shown of the crowded pool and bar in the Ozarks was really just a family reunion.

 

It just also happened to be on speed dating or speedo day

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10 hours ago, DonLever said:

Pretty much it.   No one ready knows what will happen in the future.   The politicians are really winging it.   I saw an article the other day saying an effective vaccine will never be developed and covid 19 will be among us forever like the flu.  If that is the case, what next?   You can't have a lockdown forever.

 

I don't know if it's my own denial, etc, but I have a hard time thinking we may never get rid of this virus. There always seems to be at least 1 doom and gloom article. I tend to question the motives of such an article. Perhaps it has enough evidence for it or perhaps it's looking for views. It could be either. It could be both.

 

So, at this point, I would hold such articles with a grain of salt. Unless if it starts becoming more scientific, there's no real reason to believe it's going to happen that way.

Edited by The Lock
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2 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

Flu is a yearly occurence with vaccine options. The population has a subset that's immune to certain strains. It has a lower incubation period so you know you have it faster and can stay home. It's also not as deadly. Current medical systems can easily handle the annual flu.

 

CoViD is novel, we didn't know much about it early other than it was spreading rapidly. There's no immunity in the population and had a R0 above 1 so it spread quick and can easily overwhelm medical systems. 

 

The strain on health care is probably the key.

Thanks. However what if covid19 is the new norm?

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13 hours ago, stawns said:

I'd wager most of them couldn't find the Ozarks on a map.

 

I'd wager most of them couldn't find the US on a map of North America

I've seen that on Kimmel. It was funny for the first couple of people but then it gets sad. 

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2 minutes ago, Ryan Strome said:

Thanks. However what if covid19 is the new norm?

Eventually we'll have either a vaccine or it'll end up infecting enough of the population that herd immunity develops. If it becomes annual like the flu, it won't spread like it does now because of immunity. Health care will adapt (ie more ventilators on standby). Hand washing and such will probably be more prominently taught. Humanity will learn to live with it like the Flu.

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13 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

Eventually we'll have either a vaccine or it'll end up infecting enough of the population that herd immunity develops. If it becomes annual like the flu, it won't spread like it does now because of immunity. Health care will adapt (ie more ventilators on standby). Hand washing and such will probably be more prominently taught. Humanity will learn to live with it like the Flu.

Let's hope not.........unless they can develop effective treatments.  Even still, that's going to be an unacceptable number of dead Canadians

Edited by stawns
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8 minutes ago, wloutet said:

I've got to tell you guys about this book I just finished, "The Lost City of the Monkey God" by Douglas Preston. Writing for the National Geographic, Mr. Preston was in on a flight in Honduras to an area called T3. This valley and the one next to it is called T1, were first noticed on LIDAR photos as possibly having ancient ruins underneath all the thickly heavily forested jungle. They flew in in 2015 and 2016, this book was written in 2017. I've been interested in ancient civilizations, both for the math course I'm writing, but also due to the books by Graham Hancock and such. In Honduras, many explorers had tried to find the Lost White City, and Preston thought that this might be it. They stayed for a week in the beginning under terrible conditions, large snakes, sand flies, rain, and terrible jungles. But they did find the city, that had apparently been abandoned abruptly. They flew out to take a break until the next year. Why am I writing this to you guys? Well in that year (2015 - 2016) about half of the members of group involved in the exploration began to get patches of ugly sores that wouldn't go away. They were eventually found to have a parasite called "Leishmaniasis" that is ugly, very hard to get rid of, actually mates with other strains and thus mutates, and has been around since the dinosaurs!  It apparently is contacted through barn rats AND sand flies. Because of global warning these guys, barn rats and sand flies, are now into the southern states and growing in the Easterly and Northerly directions. The book goes into great detail about pandemics, and how hard viruses are to manufacturer, and even mentions Dr. Fauci and the National Institute of Health (NIH). It has a warning about pandemics from Bill and Melinda Gates. What's scary is, this was all written before COVID-19 was upon us.  Fascinating, but scary.  (I had actually written "faxcinating", but saw the error. "Faxcinating" must be when you send something really interesting to a person through your fax machine!! LOL ).

Very interesting. Guns,Germs & Steel by Diamond is a worthwhile read. 

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1 hour ago, Duodenum said:

Eventually we'll have either a vaccine or it'll end up infecting enough of the population that herd immunity develops. If it becomes annual like the flu, it won't spread like it does now because of immunity. Health care will adapt (ie more ventilators on standby). Hand washing and such will probably be more prominently taught. Humanity will learn to live with it like the Flu.

Testing.  Widespread testing is a Key factor.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Very interesting. Guns,Germs & Steel by Diamond is a worthwhile read. 

So is his other book called:

 

 Collapes; How Societies Chose to Fair or Succeed.

 

Edited by Me_
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