(Proposal) Contending Next Offseason

[Noble 6]

This is a lengthy post, just letting you know 

 

The 2021 Season

• The Canucks finish somewhere in the middle of the Canadian division. They either make the Playoffs or barely miss in a crazy tight race, but the year is regarded as a solid one. Not great, but not horrible. 
• Trade deadline is quiet since players have to quarantine and such; no significant moves made by the Canucks. 
• After taking the entire season off, Ferland is ready to return. 
• Green signs an extension either during the year or when the year is over. 

 

RFA

Pettersson - 3 years, 6.75M per

Hughes - 3 years, 6M per

Demko - 3 years, 3M per

Tryamkin: 1 year, 1.25M

Rafferty - 2 years, 800,000 per

 

I've warmed up to the idea of giving Pettersson and Hughes bridge deals. Originally, I wanted to sign them both long term immediately, but with the flat cap we wouldn't be able to take advantage of the term. When the cap begins to rise, we can lock them up for 6-8 years and still build around them. Demko's contract is based on young goalie comparables, mainly Blackwood. Tryamkin is brought over from the KHL and Rafferty is brought  back as a 7th/8th defenseman. All of Brisebois, Chatfield, Lind and Michaelis should also be brought back on cheap deals for depth. 

 

Expansion Draft

The Canucks protection list reads as follows:

 

Forwards: Boeser, Horvat, Miller, Pettersson, Virtanen, Gaudette and MacEwan

Defense: Schmidt, Juolevi, Rafferty

Goalie: Demko

 

Exposed: Roussel, Beagle, Ferland, Motte, Lind, Eriksson, Myers, Holtby. 

 

Protection list is relatively straightforward. It was a tough choice to protect MacEwan over Motte, but I went with the younger and cheaper asset. Roussel, Beagle and Eriksson all meet the Expansion requirements, so the Canucks will definitely meet the criteria of exposing two eligible forwards. On defense, the only two players that meet the requirements are Schmidt and Myers, and one of them must be exposed. That's a pretty easy decision. Since Edler and Hamonic will be UFAs and Hughes is ineligible, we can protect our two young defensemen. Goalies is an easy decision as well.

 

Seattle ends up taking Roussel from the Canucks. He takes the Reaves role of establishing a culture for the new team. Plus he's on an expiring deal so they can move him if they want. 

 

Trades

 

To OTT:

Eriksson

2nd 2021 

Karlsson

 

To VAN:

Future considerations

 

Ottawa can be any team that is willing to take one year of Eriksson. His salary will be lower than his cap hit, so hopefully a team below the cap floor will be interested. Karlsson can also be changed with most of our other prospects. If this doesn't get it done, I would add a mid round pick as well. This trade obviously frees up an extra 6M in cap space for the Canucks in the offseason. 

 

To NSH:

Gaudette

Juolevi 

1st 2022 (top-10 protected)

 

To VAN:

Arvidsson

 

This is clearly an aggressive move. Finding wingers for Horvat has been a problem for a long time and this gets him one. This trade is made assuming Nashville underperforms and commits to a re-tool or rebuild. For Nashville, they get two young players and a 1st to kick start their plan. They were rumoured to be very interested in Gaudette back when they were trying to move Subban, so he is a piece that would likely entice them. Juolevi would provide insurance for them on the back end in case they lose Ekholm to the Expansion draft or Free Agency. He and Fabbro would be the young pieces on their blue line behind their vets Josi and Ellis. The Canucks get a scoring RW on a great contract. Arvidsson would have 3 years left at 4.25M at the time of this deal, which is great for a 30 goal scorer. He would fit in well with the high energy style the forwards play with and could play with either Pettersson or Horvat effectively. 

 

Free Agency

Larsson - 3 years, 5M per

Stepan - 2 years, 2.5M per

Benn - 1 year, 900,000

 

Larsson steps in and fills our constant need for a top-4 RHD. He can partner with Hughes and take the Tanev role effectively. The contract must be three years or less though since Hughes will need a contract at that time, so the money will be relocated to him. Stepan can step in and be our veteran 3C. He's right handed, which is perfect for our group. He'll likely be looking for a bounceback year and has been declining for the last couple of years, but he's still effective at the right price and has Playoff experience from his run to the Finals with the Rangers. Any other depth free agent signings such as a third string goalie would obviously occur as well. Benn returns for depth and any other small signings would obviously occur as well. 

 

Lineup

 

Miller - Pettersson - Boeser

Podkolzin - Horvat - Arvidsson

Hoglander - Stepan - Virtanen

Motte - Beagle - MacEwan

 

Hughes - Larsson

Schmidt - Myers

Rathbone - Tryamkin

 

Demko

Holltby

 

Ferland 

Rafferty

Benn

 

Cap Space: 1.5M

 

Powerplay 1:

Miller - Horvat - Pettersson 

Boeser - Hughes

 

Powerplay 2:

Arvidsson - Stepan - Podkolzin

Hoglander - Schmidt

 

Penalty Kill 1:

Beagle - Motte

Schmidt - Larsson

 

Penalty Kill 2:

Stepan - Podkolzin

Tryamkin - Myers

 

The forward core is very talented and very deep. The top line will have another year of chemistry and growth. The second and line is Horvat with good wingers, which is an upgrade on what we have currently. The third line brings in Hoglander, who should be able to provide energy and offense in his second year with a veteran and Virtanen. I would call that an upgrade as well. The fourth line is essentially the same, with our defensive specialists. Our defense is almost the same as this year, with Larsson stepping into the Hamonic spot. The top 4 is locked in. Rathbone replaces Juolevi and Tryamkin replaces Benn, both of which could be upgrades but possibly not. Goalies are the same. Ideally I would like to move Ferland and bring in another defenseman for the bottom pair, but I don't think moving Ferland will be moveable. 

 

I think this team is closer to contending than we are currently, mainly due to the depth up front and the expected growth of our young players. Podkolzin and Hoglander are two big boosts up front and really help out the middle-6. Our top-9 would be one of the best in the league if they both can fill their spots effectively. Every line as two solid bodies physically. Our defense isn't great, but we can ride our top-4. Rathbone will be a rookie, so I wouldn't expect him to be a contributor yet. This team would also have over 25M in cap space for the following offseason. The notable contracts that would expire would be Boeser, Virtanen and Holtby so it should be a relatively low stress summer cap wise. 

[Canuck Surfer]

Why would we pay Juolevi, Gaudette & a 1st for Arvidsson?

[Noble 6]

30 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Why would we pay Juolevi, Gaudette & a 1st for Arvidsson?

 

That would be a realistic ball park for his price. He's a really good player, but his contract increases his value as an asset quite a bit too. The price for Arvidsson should be similar to what we would expect in a Miller trade or at least something similar. 

[mll]

46 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

That would be a realistic ball park for his price. He's a really good player, but his contract increases his value as an asset quite a bit too. The price for Arvidsson should be similar to what we would expect in a Miller trade or at least something similar. 

But why would Nashville want to trade him when they are looking to win a Cup now.  Poile again called him a core player after the playoffs and talked of how excited he was with their top line being reunited.  They don’t seem to have any expansion issues either and should be able to protect 4 Ds should they elect to. 

 

Poile explained that they were looking to clear Subban’s full cap hit and did not want to take any roster players back. They were looking for draft picks.  Gaudette would have been sent to Milwaukee.  Regardless, they’ve already added a similar player to Gaudette in Kunin. 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by mll

[Noble 6]

30 minutes ago, mll said:

But why would Nashville want to trade him when they are looking to win a Cup now.  Poile again called him a core player after the playoffs and talked of how excited he was with their top line being reunited.  They don’t seem to have any expansion issues either and should be able to protect 4 Ds should they elect to. 

 

Poile explained that they were looking to clear Subban’s full cap hit and did not want to take any roster players back. They were looking for draft picks.  Gaudette would have been sent to Milwaukee.  Regardless, they’ve already added a similar player to Gaudette in Kunin. 

 

 

I know Poile said that, but this trade was proposed with the assumption that Nashville missed the Playoffs and had a bad year and that Arvidsson was unremarkable. This would force them to re-evaluate and they would elect to commit to a re-tool. If these things don't happen then obviously the trade is less likely to happen. 

 

The Predators probably won't lose Ekholm in the Expansion draft, but they could lose him in Free Agency. Even if they re-sign him, adding a young defenseman would allow them to efficiently transition him lower in the lineup as he declines. In this particular proposed situation, Juolevi would line up with their new contending timeline better as well. 

 

Whether Gaudette would have been in the NHL or AHL, they still had interest in him. We had other players they could have sent down, but they wanted him. Kunin has mostly played wing I believe, while Gaudette has been a center. 

[mll]

Just now, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I know Poile said that, but this trade was proposed with the assumption that Nashville missed the Playoffs and had a bad year and that Arvidsson was unremarkable. This would force them to re-evaluate and they would elect to commit to a re-tool. If these things don't happen then obviously the trade is less likely to happen. 

 

The Predators probably won't lose Ekholm in the Expansion draft, but they could lose him in Free Agency. Even if they re-sign him, adding a young defenseman would allow them to efficiently transition him lower in the lineup as he declines. In this particular proposed situation, Juolevi would line up with their new contending timeline better as well. 

 

Whether Gaudette would have been in the NHL or AHL, they still had interest in him. We had other players they could have sent down, but they wanted him. Kunin has mostly played wing I believe, while Gaudette has been a center. 

 

Feels like it was more by elimination.  They were set at C and still are with Johansen, Duchene, Sissons, Jarnkrok and Richardson/Haula  (1 year deals) + Trenin and Kunin who can also play the position.   

 

You are giving arguments on why Vancouver shouldn’t do it.  

 

Arvidsson turns 28 in April.  He was a 3-time overager when drafted.  Pettersson/Hughes are only 20/21.  You are giving up young assets which is going to limit the Canucks window.  If you think Juolevi can be as good as Ekholm why wouldn’t Vancouver want to keep him. Who is going to be C3 without Gaudette.  

 

 

[Noble 6]

5 minutes ago, mll said:

 

Feels like it was more by elimination.  They were set at C and still are with Johansen, Duchene, Sissons, Jarnkrok and Richardson/Haula  (1 year deals) + Trenin and Kunin who can also play the position.   

 

You are giving arguments on why Vancouver shouldn’t do it.  

 

Arvidsson turns 28 in April.  He was a 3-time overager when drafted.  Pettersson/Hughes are only 20/21.  You are giving up young assets which is going to limit the Canucks window.  If you think Juolevi can be as good as Ekholm why wouldn’t Vancouver want to keep him. Who is going to be C3 without Gaudette.  

 

 

 

The youngest of those centers you listed is 27. Gaudette fits in to the age group of a re-tooling team much better than they do. They could move Johansen for another big return at some point and keep some of the others as vets for the new core. The whole trade depends on Nashville committing to a re-tool after a hypothetical season. If that doesn't happen, then Arvidsson wouldn't be a target. 

 

Miller was 26 when we acquired him. Schmidt is 29. Do these trades limit the Canucks window? 

 

I don't know if Juolevi will be as good as Ekholm at some point. A re-tooling team might want to take that chance to develop him in to that, but if the Canucks are trying to be aggressive then waiting 2-3 years or whatever it is won't help them much. Plus Rathbone is still a good young defenseman in the system. 

 

In this scenario, I signed Stepan to fill the 3C position. 

[Master Higgins]

If all it took to rid ourselves of LE and his contract were a second he would of been gone long ago 

[mll]

12 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

The youngest of those centers you listed is 27. Gaudette fits in to the age group of a re-tooling team much better than they do. They could move Johansen for another big return at some point and keep some of the others as vets for the new core. The whole trade depends on Nashville committing to a re-tool after a hypothetical season. If that doesn't happen, then Arvidsson wouldn't be a target. 

 

Miller was 26 when we acquired him. Schmidt is 29. Do these trades limit the Canucks window? 

 

I don't know if Juolevi will be as good as Ekholm at some point. A re-tooling team might want to take that chance to develop him in to that, but if the Canucks are trying to be aggressive then waiting 2-3 years or whatever it is won't help them much. Plus Rathbone is still a good young defenseman in the system. 

 

In this scenario, I signed Stepan to fill the 3C position. 

Schmidt gives time for Juolevi to develop - there’s a transition.  Like there is for Miller to Podkolzin/Hoglander.  But if you move those young assets, you shorten the window as there’s no one coming up to replace vets who will start to slow down when Hughes/Pettersson are still in their prime. 

 

Edited January 6, 2021 by mll

[Noble 6]

22 minutes ago, mll said:

Schmidt gives time for Juolevi to develop - there’s a transition.  Like there is for Miller to Podkolzin/Hoglander.  But if you move those young assets, you shorten the window as there’s no one coming up to replace vets who will start to slow down when Hughes/Pettersson are still in their prime. 

 

 

So how do you feel about the Miller trade? Would you do it again?

[flickyoursedin]

Benn is probably a guy they wish they didn’t have under contract this year so I can’t see them extending him past this season. Arvidsson is a great player but that is a steep price however I do think pretty highly of both Gaudette and Juolevi. I think Juolevi could still turn into a 35-40 point 20 minute top 4 guy. Stepan has already taken a step back and is looking for a bounce back this year where he might even regress even more.

[mll]

43 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

So how do you feel about the Miller trade? Would you do it again?

Yes.  He bridges the gap to when Hoglander/Podkolzin take over as the top forwards.  

 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

I see people still think Tryamkin is an NHL player but Juolevi can be shipped off.

 

Glad to see CDC didn't change much over the past 12 months!

[JM_]

6 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

I see people still think Tryamkin is an NHL player but Juolevi can be shipped off.

 

Glad to see CDC didn't change much over the past 12 months!

OJ is going to surprise a lot of people this year imo. He sounds determined, and not sure anyone has noticed lately but he's grown a lot since the draft. Once he learns to be a bit more physical people are going to be back to trying to trade Boeser. 

[Rob_Zepp]

Just now, Jimmy McGill said:

OJ is going to surprise a lot of people this year imo. He sounds determined, and not sure anyone has noticed lately but he's grown a lot since the draft. Once he learns to be a bit more physical people are going to be back to trying to trade Boeser. 

OJ is a stud.   Kid has had some injury hiccups and those seem to be behind him (knock on wood).    Will be interesting to see how he does this season but he is so much better than the majority here seem to realize.   The way he can move a puck out of the zone (now with Hughes and NS too!), you may see the Canucks lead the league in zone exit efficiency in part by having him in lineup.    Kid is also huge AND mobile.   Again, not sure who people think he is when they rag on him - even Google lets you see his AHL work last year and that alone shows a lot of what he can do.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, Rob_Zepp said:

OJ is a stud.   Kid has had some injury hiccups and those seem to be behind him (knock on wood).    Will be interesting to see how he does this season but he is so much better than the majority here seem to realize.   The way he can move a puck out of the zone (now with Hughes and NS too!), you may see the Canucks lead the league in zone exit efficiency in part by having him in lineup.    Kid is also huge AND mobile.   Again, not sure who people think he is when they rag on him - even Google lets you see his AHL work last year and that alone shows a lot of what he can do.

dunno.

 

I think you're right about leading the league in exits, people underestimate Myers on that too. Its going to make Holtby-Demko's job a lot easier. 

[Canuck Surfer]

3 hours ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

That would be a realistic ball park for his price. He's a really good player, but his contract increases his value as an asset quite a bit too. The price for Arvidsson should be similar to what we would expect in a Miller trade or at least something similar. 

Last year Jake Virtanen outproduced Arvidsson.

 

With less minutes, I am pretty sure less PP time. He had a bad year last year.

 

15 goals and just under 30 points in nearly 60 games is not worth that package in my opinion. Jake 18 goals & 36 points.

 

 

I do like him as a player, possibly a target. I dont really know about why he dipped so heavily last year? Last summer I suggested how great it would be if Hoglander became our Arvidsson? Unless he is back at 60 point productivity, i don't think he will command what u suggested.

[Canuck Surfer]

21 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

OJ is a stud.   Kid has had some injury hiccups and those seem to be behind him (knock on wood).    Will be interesting to see how he does this season but he is so much better than the majority here seem to realize.   The way he can move a puck out of the zone (now with Hughes and NS too!), you may see the Canucks lead the league in zone exit efficiency in part by having him in lineup.    Kid is also huge AND mobile.   Again, not sure who people think he is when they rag on him - even Google lets you see his AHL work last year and that alone shows a lot of what he can do.

Hey Rob, welcome back.

 

Were u involved a lot in the AHL last year?  How were Gady, Lind and Jasek if u also have observations??

[Noble 6]

1 hour ago, flickyoursedin said:

Benn is probably a guy they wish they didn’t have under contract this year so I can’t see them extending him past this season. Arvidsson is a great player but that is a steep price however I do think pretty highly of both Gaudette and Juolevi. I think Juolevi could still turn into a 35-40 point 20 minute top 4 guy. Stepan has already taken a step back and is looking for a bounce back this year where he might even regress even more.

 

Benn is our 7th defenseman, so at 2M I'd rather not have him. However, at less than 1M he's a serviceable veteran who provides flexibility by being able to play both sides. If it's not Benn then we sign some other generic depth defenseman. 

 

I share your sentiment on Juolevi, but we don't have many assets with value outside of our core. With Rathbone right there with him, I figured we could absorb that loss easier relative to other ones. 

 

I chose Stepan simply because he's right handed. I think he would benefit from playing further down the lineup than he was in Arizona and he's still not that old at 31. Other options would be Soderberg, Stastny, etc. Really any free agent than can fill our 3C spot. 

 

51 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

I see people still think Tryamkin is an NHL player but Juolevi can be shipped off.

 

Glad to see CDC didn't change much over the past 12 months!

 

I'm not convinced Tryamkin is an NHL player, but he deserves a shot. I'm not expecting anything more than an eventual bottom pairing guy, a Zadorov lite. 

 

I would not be happy about including Juolevi in a deal, but the value has to come from somewhere. Like I said, we have Rathbone right there with him so it would probably be an easier pill to swallow than moving Hoglander or Podkolzin or someone else. 

 

21 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Last year Jake Virtanen outproduced Arvidsson.

 

With less minutes, I am pretty sure less PP time. He had a bad year last year.

 

15 goals and just under 30 points in nearly 60 games is not worth that package in my opinion. Jake 18 goals & 36 points.

 

 

I do like him as a player, possibly a target. I dont really know about why he dipped so heavily last year? Last summer I suggested how great it would be if Hoglander became our Arvidsson? Unless he is back at 60 point productivity, i don't think he will command what u suggested.

 

He definitely did have a down year. If we can acquire him for less than what I proposed, I would be all for it. Regardless of this season though, his pedigree and his contract would ensure that he get's some value back, even if it's less than what I suggested. Although at that point Nashville would probably elect to keep him anyway. 

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, Canuck Surfer said:

Hey Rob, welcome back.

 

Were u involved a lot in the AHL last year?  How were Gady, Lind and Jasek if u also have observations??

Not too much but watched a lot.   COVID really took an interesting twist with what I was up to and led me into a venture that was consuming but really fun and waayyy more rewarding than I thought when entering it.    Felt guilty about the ability to thrive both intellectually and financially while so many were hurting (and continue to) with the measures to combat this pandemic.

 

I did watch a lot of AHL last year with the Comets one of a few teams.    Gady is a bit too slow still and seems to have lost a lot of confidence.    Lind is a player and looks like an NHL player.   Jasek is a long-shot as he is good at pretty much everything but outstanding at nothing.   Bailey, who you didn't ask about, is a freak of nature for how well he skates and he has a heavy shot and is a beast of a man - but something isn't right about him.   I could see him getting 30 goals in the NHL or getting zip.    Something needs to click and I really think it is all mental.   He has more tools than many who are stars in the league.