Francesco Aquilini says "I have no plans to make changes."

[wai_lai416]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

Well if your not trolling your not educating yourself either.    All the moaning about trading picks - with the picks brought in he was flush up to the Miller trade - even.    As far as how good is he at drafting?   There's a method to compare based on ADP.   Look it up, he's firmly in the top third of the league at drafting based on average draft position, which is a way of leveling the playing field against great teams who draft late every year.   Or spend some time and look at who other teams have drafted and how well they've done too.   Until you do that, probably shouldn't comment like this or you will look like either a troll, or naive.    At the same time he's not a drafting god either is he.   But i don't read folks saying that either.   The past two years, which gives you the proper 4 year sample size to judge this way, he's being around 9th best drafted overall.  TB is first, by a long shot.   EDM the worst. 

it's obvious we are basing his success on completely different things. you are basing his ranking on prospects ranks which at the end of the day means nothing if they dont' make it to the NHL. i base it on how many nhl players he produces that plays in the NHL regularly bottom 6 bottom 4 bottom pairing etc.. there are plenty of teams in the NHL that have as much players produced in the 2nd rounds and up as the canucks depending on whether or not you even count tryamkin and forsling. if not half the league if not more have produced as much nhl players with 50+ games than the canucks out of the 2nd round +. so i fail to see the success you see in his drafting other than he drafted prospects that ranked decent but once again doesn't mean anything if they don't make it the NHL? like i said the only canuck prospect that's a guranteed to have a shot on the team right now is basically podz.

 

[IBatch]

13 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

it's obvious we are basing his success on completely different things. you are basing his ranking on prospects ranks which at the end of the day means nothing if they dont' make it to the NHL. i base it on how many nhl players he produces that plays in the NHL regularly bottom 6 bottom 4 bottom pairing etc.. there are plenty of teams in the NHL that have as much players produced in the 2nd rounds and up as the canucks depending on whether or not you even count tryamkin and forsling. if not half the league if not more have produced as much nhl players with 50+ games than the canucks out of the 2nd round +. so i fail to see the success you see in his drafting other than he drafted prospects that ranked decent but once again doesn't mean anything if they don't make it the NHL? like i said the only canuck prospect that's a guranteed to have a shot on the team right now is basically podz.

 

21 and unders.   Is not just basing it on prospects is it?   I like THN Future Watch method ... they use a compilation ten nhl scouts rank all the 21 and unders and compare teams.   You should maybe do some more research.   What is lots of second rounders ?   Personally i don't like the 100 game line - 200 is getting a little better  ... How many did Vey get?  Goldobin?   Cup of coffee's IMO, and no they shouldn't count.   Demko is a good example of a second round hit - Hoglander appears to be one too.   50% of second rounders won't play a game,   of the other 50% a lot that do make it are just like Goldobin... not a hit IMO either. 

 

Oh and I agree Podz is the only sure thing left... Curiously so far all our top hundred ranked prospects since JB first draft, have all played in the NHL now with the exception of  Podz (10), Madden (50), and Woo (85).... also on the list to start the year Hoglander (27) and OJ (86).... last years draft for sure is going to leave us with a gap... that said we can expect to see another impact rookie next year and possibly Woo for some games too.   For sure he's blown his load as far as the best - his ability to replenish - don't see why he won't, he's hitting on 1-3 players a draft ... GMs expect ONE roster player a draft and hope for two.   Why?  Because that's what the math says. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by IBatch

[wai_lai416]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

21 and unders.   Is not just basing it on prospects is it? 

sry i look at all the teams player drafted since 2014 and see how many outside of the first round plays say 50+ games in the NHL. there's definitely more than 10. of coz there's going to be teams there that's trash at drafting too but considering outside of the 1st round we've been drafting in the top 5 in the other rounds for majority of the years. it's rather disappointing what we have produced other than a high prospect rank?

[IBatch]

32 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

sry i look at all the teams player drafted since 2014 and see how many outside of the first round plays say 50+ games in the NHL. there's definitely more than 10. of coz there's going to be teams there that's trash at drafting too but considering outside of the 1st round we've been drafting in the top 5 in the other rounds for majority of the years. it's rather disappointing what we have produced other than a high prospect rank?

No worries - i added a bunch to my post.   I don't think 50 is a good gauge at all.   MG drafted three NHLer during his 6 years.   Horvat, Hutton and Cannaughton i think ... that were in the league for awhile.   

 

As far as scouts go they have a system for who they consider is a bust and it's all games played:

 

1-3 700 4-6 500 7-10 400  11-15 300 rest of first round 200

 

Curiously, after 22 overall the last two decades, the odds of a 200 game player are virtually the same as a 200 game player in the entire second round.  Not good.   50% don't play a game the other 50% is a mixed bag from  handful of HHOFers a few 1000 gamers ... but mostly 100 gamers ...

 

The entire 3-7 round combined also has about the same success rate as one second rounder, because that's the same success rate.   In other words every second year you could expect one 100-200 game player .... on average, once a decade an Edler type pick.   
 

There is a great article about this done by a University study on 20 year draft block 90-2000.   Found some very interesting stuff.   One even though scouting staff has increased as much as 500%,  the quantity of busts and hits is exactly the same.   There is only a slight difference in quality in the first round - that's it.   Same as it ever was.

 

The odds say - that teams drafting 22-31, get ONE 200ish game player between the first and second round.   And all teams get one 200 game player from rounds 3-7 every two years.    The only problem with this system is it doesn't compare quality at all, which is why i like the Future Watch ... it does. 

 

As far as JB drafting ... JV, McAan, Demko, BB, AG,  OJ, EP, QHs, Hoglander, Podz and i'd add Tryamkin because one season was as rookie he did fine - all look to be decent picks as in not busts (yet).   Might be missing a few just going off the top of my head - it's nice seeing a healthy diet of guys make the league, and we are lucky to have three Calder finalists in a row ... could possibly be four if Hoglander makes it onto the first PP unit like the other three did.   As far as quality goes BB, EP and QHs for sure make up for JV, OJ and Myers IMO are becoming our best all around D paring touched on that in another thread.   And we won't know whom of these guys are busts for a few years yet (or at least what a scout would call a bust).

 

OJ if healthy, could play 1000 games who knows.   Any of these guys could get a career ending injury.   And i suspect we still have a few guys in the weeds that will do what Stetcher (Rathbone?) or Hoglander are doing.   Lind for sure maybe too.   Still too early, but so far so good. 

Edited February 25, 2021 by IBatch

[Provost]

[Dazzle]

15 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

sry i look at all the teams player drafted since 2014 and see how many outside of the first round plays say 50+ games in the NHL. there's definitely more than 10. of coz there's going to be teams there that's trash at drafting too but considering outside of the 1st round we've been drafting in the top 5 in the other rounds for majority of the years. it's rather disappointing what we have produced other than a high prospect rank?

The problem has been caused by Gillis and his tendency to trade picks. Yes, the Canucks were in a win mode. Yet with the draft picks that we did have, we didn't really nail any good ones.

 

The result is that we have a stale team because none of the up and coming players would replace the old, star players like the Sedins. The most successful years arguably came under Gillis, who inherited a core mostly built by his predecessors. And the mess he left behind was passed onto Benning.

 

Folks, we're still paying for Gillis' mistakes. Then Benning made mistakes himself.

[24K PureCool]

14 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

The problem has been caused by Gillis and his tendency to trade picks. Yes, the Canucks were in a win mode. Yet with the draft picks that we did have, we didn't really nail any good ones.

 

The result is that we have a stale team because none of the up and coming players would replace the old, star players like the Sedins. The most successful years arguably came under Gillis, who inherited a core mostly built by his predecessors. And the mess he left behind was passed onto Benning.

 

Folks, we're still paying for Gillis' mistakes. Then Benning made mistakes himself.

Sadly I think it will take another rebuild. Kinda lines up with this teams tendency to make the finals every 20 or so years. 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

24 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

The problem has been caused by Gillis and his tendency to trade picks. Yes, the Canucks were in a win mode. Yet with the draft picks that we did have, we didn't really nail any good ones.

 

The result is that we have a stale team because none of the up and coming players would replace the old, star players like the Sedins. The most successful years arguably came under Gillis, who inherited a core mostly built by his predecessors. And the mess he left behind was passed onto Benning.

 

Folks, we're still paying for Gillis' mistakes. Then Benning made mistakes himself.

Gillis was fired in 2014....it's now 2021.    At some point, one has to start pointing the finger at somebody else.  Tanev was 24 years old when Benning was hired.  He's now an 'old man' by NHL standards.

Edited February 26, 2021 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Melbourne Canuck]

I’d fire Benning now & start the process of appointing a new GM as soon as possible. Let the new GM come in and clean house as he sees fit. The deadline is around five weeks away, the time to make moves is likely here now but if not fast approaching. There’s some players on expiring deals that could fetch a pick or two, perhaps whatever draft pick could then be packaged with other pieces to get rid of some cap. There’s two years of cap pain ahead, let the new GM shape the roster for future years. If that includes moving on Green, so be it. Changes need to be made. 

[N4ZZY]

1 hour ago, Dazzle said:

The problem has been caused by Gillis and his tendency to trade picks. Yes, the Canucks were in a win mode. Yet with the draft picks that we did have, we didn't really nail any good ones.

 

The result is that we have a stale team because none of the up and coming players would replace the old, star players like the Sedins. The most successful years arguably came under Gillis, who inherited a core mostly built by his predecessors. And the mess he left behind was passed onto Benning.

 

Folks, we're still paying for Gillis' mistakes. Then Benning made mistakes himself.

Yeah, it's been compounded. It could have been minimized, Benning's decisions on some players and contracts have not helped at all. 

 

[N4ZZY]

46 minutes ago, Melbourne Canuck said:

I’d fire Benning now & start the process of appointing a new GM as soon as possible. Let the new GM come in and clean house as he sees fit. The deadline is around five weeks away, the time to make moves is likely here now but if not fast approaching. There’s some players on expiring deals that could fetch a pick or two, perhaps whatever draft pick could then be packaged with other pieces to get rid of some cap. There’s two years of cap pain ahead, let the new GM shape the roster for future years. If that includes moving on Green, so be it. Changes need to be made. 

I agree that changes need to be made. 

 

I've said it before, I like Green. I think he's going to be a good coach in the NHL. Whether that's going to be with the Canucks or not, we'll see. Even when Benning goes, there's precedence that a new GM would retain the previous coach. Green would have to meet the new GM. With that being said, I fully expect a new coach, as well as a new GM and management team. 

 

I think we'll be better next season, but that's not saying much considering how poorly this season has been. 

 

[UFCanuck]

Here comes another 4 tweets!!! 

[N4ZZY]

7 minutes ago, playboi19 said:

Here comes another 4 tweets!!! 

from who? Francesco? 

 

[the harry]

... has no plan(s)..

[RU SERIOUS]

Any NORMAL owner would never allow such incompetence & Mis-Management of an operation to reach such depths of failure & despair.   AQUA-LINI needs to be a man and  TAKE ACTION NOW TO RIGHT THIS SHIP or Sell the Team to Competent Owners who have the family jewels to make some hard decisions.    

 

HEADS NEED TO ROLL - THIS IS DISGRACEFUL !

 

Aqua-Lini Motto for the last decade..........

[Convincing John]

8 hours ago, Dazzle said:

 

Folks, we're still paying for Gillis' mistakes. Then Benning made mistakes himself.

Ok, I get that he didn’t restock the cupboard while winning presidents trophies but it’s been 7 years. The shallow prospect pool from sacrificing the future to win now isn’t a isolated problem. San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Detroit, etc have all been victimized by winning. 
 

It’s been 7 years though. We have a good young core and that’s great but we don’t have a deep prospect pool considering how bad we’ve been the last 7 years. We are a cap team for Christ sake, and we have been this entire time. A lot of good has come out of Benning but he has royally screwed up a lot.

[IBatch]

9 hours ago, 24K PureCool said:

Sadly I think it will take another rebuild. Kinda lines up with this teams tendency to make the finals every 20 or so years. 

11-13 -17 years ...yes each cycle is taking longer isn't it?  This math pattern says we should get another shot in 2037 ugh... that's two more cores folks.   Curiously it also paced with expansion.  And we actually met/beat the odds of making the final each time IF we actually won - two teams make the final each year - so we should actually get a couple freebies right? Hope with this core... but not holding my breath either.   32 freakin teams ... wow need six cups per year to make the odds similar to the original six ..

Edited February 26, 2021 by IBatch

[PhillipBlunt]

No tweets from Aqua Velva recently. 

[WeneedLumme]

9 hours ago, 24K PureCool said:

Sadly I think it will take another rebuild. Kinda lines up with this teams tendency to make the finals every 20 or so years. 

Yeah, no sense waiting to see how our young stars look when they are grown up, best to dump them all immediately and convert them to draft picks so we can get into permanently-rebuilding mode.

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, Convincing John said:

Ok, I get that he didn’t restock the cupboard while winning presidents trophies but it’s been 7 years. The shallow prospect pool from sacrificing the future to win now isn’t a isolated problem. San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Detroit, etc have all been victimized by winning. 
 

It’s been 7 years though. We have a good young core and that’s great but we don’t have a deep prospect pool considering how bad we’ve been the last 7 years. We are a cap team for Christ sake, and we have been this entire time. A lot of good has come out of Benning but he has royally screwed up a lot.

We don't have a prospect pool because all the best prospects are now on the team lol.   You can't have a run of calder finalists drafting during that time an average of 8-9 overall without having great drafting - don't understand how anyone can complain about that.   Podz next - we should get another blue chip prospect this year. 

 

On the cap.   How many blue chip - star players do you think any team can afford on their team anyways?   Just to help - it's 5-8 depending on how "star" or how "blue chip" they are.   And that's 60-75% of your cap on 21-22 team roster right there.   On 5-8 players.   Most teams have around 6.   Look at CHI.   Look at PIT.  Look at LA.  St. louis.    I'd include TB but they have a 10-15% cap advantage over the rest of the league with the exception of Dallas, Miami, Vegas, and soon to be Seattle (no state or "jock taxes" etc).   No surprise 3 of the 4 least taxed teams made the final four last year.   Up until last year it hasn't been a problem as far as cup winners go either.   But it for sure is noticeable.  

 

Context matters.  Most on here understand how our pool went from dead last during MG six years of awful drafting.   Managed 3 NHLers during that time - and pretty sure only traded one first - unlike what Detroit did for years ..... he was an absolute terrible drafter.  JB came in and changed that despite his ADP - drafting better then 2/3 of the league all things been equal. 

 

Yes his best picks are on the team - thank god they are or we'd have a serious problem right now.   IMO, the sh!tshow he inherited - was like CLB and other teams had to deal with under the old rules.   Horvat and Hutton!  Wow!  Seriously wow.   Going from 31, to 3 was exactly what we could hope for (best 21 and unders).   Picks are picks.    Yes for sure made mistakes on the way - the Sedins were treated right at least.   And also a big part of the problem.   

 

I don't have a crystal ball or know how things will go from here.   But for sure this team has a chance to become a force in our own division (not the North lol...at least for two years).   I hope we aren't following the same path as ARI or CAR, as in now toiling on their third core or finally getting it right on their third core CAR.    Ugh.   Can say with 32 teams the odds are against us for sure - and at least JB has given us a chance. 

 

 

Edit:  If CLB doesn't work for you then maybe consider ATL.  Heatley and Kovi...and then Hossa for Heatley.   Starting from nothing isn't easy in a 26ish team league either ... but now?  It's a death sentence as far as playoff aspirations go under the old rules.   No wonder they changed them for Vegas and Seattle. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by IBatch