[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Provost]

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 

 

Edit:  as of 26 February, the odds sit around 2.5%.  No team has ever come back from under 4%.  All the wailing and gnashing of teeth in the first few pages by folks can be moved on from by any reasonable person.  In reality though, we were always going to lose 3 games eventually and other teams we were chasing them would win some.  It just happened quickly.

 

Edit: 01 May... after a last spurt of misplaced ire, even the diehards now admit the playoffs are (and we’re) out of reach.  Hopefully playing the kids and doing auditions for next year is the plan the rest of the way out.  A bottom 5 finish isn’t out of the question... so we can hope now that our draft position improves.
 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Provost

[Junkyard Dog]

Trade Deadline isn’t till mid-April so I think we will wait till mid-March to evaluate our chances and decide what to do from there. 

[timmylu1]

So you're saying theres a chance? 

[ImConfused]

7 minutes ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, if not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
 

Well that's a bit of a stretch lol

 

You do know what "mathematically" means, right?

[Provost]

Just now, Junkyard Dog said:

Trade Deadline isn’t till mid-April so I think we will wait till mid-March to evaluate our chances and decide what to do from there. 

Ya, I don't think we need to be making any rash decisions... any team including ours can go on a 10-0 run and entirely change the conversation.

I don't know that necessarily waiting until Mid March is going to be the answer as we will likely know our fate within a week or two.

If we plan on selling some rentals, doing it earlier rather than later lets us leverage more potential suitors by including US teams that would want to make moves earlier due to quarantine rules and have those players in their lineup for a while before the end of the season and knowing the systems.

 

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, ImConfused said:

Well that's a bit of a stretch lol

 

You do know what "mathematically" means, right?

That is why I said practically and unlikely... I will clarify by editing and adding an "even" to make the sentence more understandable.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Provost

[SergioMomesso]

The next ten games will tell us if we are done or not. We honestly need to go 8-2 to have a chance or it's time to unload at the deadline. If that's even possible to make trades.

[oldnews]

Meh.  People pull this stuff out every season - and it's overcooked.

There are always teams that buck this stuff - every single season.

It's premature - as always.

 

Teams need to go on a run, period.   They need to sustain .500+ hockey, and go on a stretch where they win a half dozen straight, or 8 or 10 or w.h.y.

It happens repeatedly  - and render the 'models' relatively moot.

 

Can this team do that?  Who knows?   But nothing more meaningless than attempts to write them off.

 

If anything - the idea that this special season makes it more difficult - doesn't necessarily hold water when you have as many head to head games with specifically the teams you need to catch - teams probably hold their  own fates in their hands moreso than ever.

 

Regardless - for me the thing I want to see is them playing the kind of hockey they have the past 5 games vs Toronto and Calgary (which we saw spotty indications of earlier vs Ottawa, Winnipeg, Edmonton...)

 

These kinds of overcooked defeatism/pseudo-'realism' are pointless for the most part imo.

 

Keep working smart and hard and you never know - the team has the talent imo to climb back into it - and as importantly they have the work ethic, the 'foundation' to their game - and would seem to have the character/fight necessary as well - particularly once they've been able to 'catch their breath'.

 

Having played 20 games already is certainly a disadvantage, particularly when they struggled in half of them - but it also means that their remaining grind will not be as compact as many other teams.   So forget the nonsense crystal balls and focus on the next game, one at a time, and the possibility remains.

[King Heffy]

We've been underachieving all year.  Neither Edmonton or Calgary are legit NHL teams, so it's likely they will stop overachieving as the season progresses.  McDiver and Draisitl can't carry the Soilers to the playoffs, and Calgary still has a top 6 with zero men in it.  Ottawa's more than capable of pulling off a few upsets despite their record as well.

Edited February 18, 2021 by King Heffy

[Devron]

@Provost You started a similar thread about trade deadline a couple weeks ago. Play and watch to win. When it gets closer then let’s start talking about these things. Team looks like they are starting to roll. Let’s see what happens. Schedule is now in our favour and we underachieved the first 20 games. The last 2 playoff spots are up for grabs as far as I’m concerned 

[Comet Fan 0727]

Nothing to see here. Let’s hope the early season struggles of no training camp, no practice time, whole bunch of new players etc put us behind the 8 ball.  Toronto I will give you, but Montreal?  No way do I concede that they make the playoffs?  Who have they beaten so far...Ottawa and us. They have 4 wins vs us when we could not have played any worse.  I can’t wait to play them again and get some sweet revenge. Let’s let the season play out.  I’m about to put some cash down now on the Nucks making it to the SC finals before their odds switch. 

[Provost]

3 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

 

If anything - the idea that this special season makes it more difficult - doesn't necessarily hold water when you have as many head to head games with specifically the teams you need to catch - teams probably hold their  own fates in their hands moreso than ever.

 

 

That just isn't true and was covered in the OP.

Because we are behind and need to catch up to several teams and not just one, the so-called 4 point games work against us because so many of the games remaining for those teams we are trying to catch are ALSO 4 point games and guaranteed points for one of those teams on a given night.

Your nonsense counterpoint that "well occasionally there are outliers against the odds" doesn't alter the stated post that it is highly unlikely already.  Of course we could go on a 10 game run (as I also stated).

Some people win the lottery each week... it doesn't negate the fact that winning the lottery is unlikely.  That is a ridiculous point and in your terms just "WADR".

[oldnews]

1 minute ago, Provost said:

 

 

[Junkyard Dog]

26 minutes ago, Provost said:

Ya, I don't think we need to be making any rash decisions... any team including ours can go on a 10-0 run and entirely change the conversation.

I don't know that necessarily waiting until Mid March is going to be the answer as we will likely know our fate within a week or two.

If we plan on selling some rentals, doing it earlier rather than later lets us leverage more potential suitors by including US teams that would want to make moves earlier due to quarantine rules and have those players in their lineup for a while before the end of the season and knowing the systems.

 

I think that the Canadian teams will want to trade within the division with who’s out of the race. 
 

US teams will likely trade with each other as well. They have a lot more to choose from down there too. 
 

Shorter quarantine. Why wait extra in a tight/condensed schedule when you have shorter options. 

[King Heffy]

6 minutes ago, Comet Fan 0727 said:

Nothing to see here. Let’s hope the early season struggles of no training camp, no practice time, whole bunch of new players etc put us behind the 8 ball.  Toronto I will give you, but Montreal?  No way do I concede that they make the playoffs?  Who have they beaten so far...Ottawa and us. They have 4 wins vs us when we could not have played any worse.  I can’t wait to play them again and get some sweet revenge. Let’s let the season play out.  I’m about to put some cash down now on the Nucks making it to the SC finals before their odds switch. 

Montreal is a better team than Toronto.  The Laffs have been overachieving; let's see how they fare if Muzzin or Brodie go down and they're down to one NHL quality defenseman.  Most overrated team in hockey.

[kingofsurrey]

[ChuckNORRIS4Cup]

[GritGrinder]

Just 8 more wins in a row and the Canucks are back on playoff pace (16-11-1 at the halfway point of the season). The next 11 games in 23 days will make or break the season. No games against Ottawa or a flawed Flames team that looks like the Canucks from the last few seasons relying way too much on Markstrom. WPGx4, EDMx3, TORx2, MTLx2 with 9 of the 11 being at home. .500 is not nearly enough and something closer to 8-2-1 is what's needed to really get the season back on track.

 

At the beginning of the season I had a "magic" minimum record that I thought would guarantee 4th place. 30-21-5 and I still stand by that. So realistically the Canucks can only lose 10 more games in regulation before they are practically eliminated from playoff contention.

 

**I posted this on another thread so apologies if you're reading this twice.**

Edited February 18, 2021 by GritGrinder

[knucklehead91]

51 minutes ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 
 

Keep in mind that pretty much every team ahead of us has had 1 week of rest at some point this season. We have yet to get some RnR. Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton and Winnipeg will be playing a very tight schedule from here on out due to their early break in the season, so fatigue will catch up with them.

[Coconuts]

We basically need Montreal and Toronto to keep winning, and have Ottawa steal points from teams we're chasing while going on a run ourselves. It's doable, but it's not something I'd bet on. Playing so many games early didn't help, but maybe we'll be able to knock off some gassed teams playing catch up in the second half.

 

I hope we make it, but I'm not expecting us to. I'd love to be wrong.