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[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

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Provost

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On 2/8/2021 at 8:01 PM, Provost said:

 

 

36 minutes ago, Devron44 said:

@Provost You started a similar thread about trade deadline a couple weeks ago.

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How many games before we are realistically (if not mathematically) eliminated?

 

We will be lucky to get 56 games in this season due to Covid... by game 20 if we are 5 points out of a playoff spot, that is actually a big hill to climb because we have to play better than a couple teams to reach the playoffs and we have shown even then that would be a short series.

 

It is uniquely difficult this year to gain ground in the standings because with only divisional play, almost every single game played by teams you are trying to catch will award 2-3 points to teams you are trying to catch.

 

A good run can happen, but we are really short on runway and probably need to go on a .700 tear for the next dozen games to get back into the running.  We are currently 3-10 in games against teams not named Ottawa, so that is more than a little turnaround.

 

The “Lose for Hughes” mantra isn’t that far away.  That isn’t tanking, it is math.  There is a point when you have to be planning on how to help in the longer term when the current season has slipped away.

 

The bright spots are:  we have veteran players on expiring contracts to trade as rentals; if we acquire some picks for those veterans, we can flip those for players who can’t be protected in expansion; and the top of the draft is heavy on D.

 

 

Image result for retread

 

retread thread #redundant thread is redundant.

Edited by oldnews
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I agree it's way too early for doomsayers to stifle hope. Betting they get in. & at least for the last 5 games they've played with some dignity & passion.

 

About a dozen games were a dog's breaky. Of course they were shagged, & getting things sorted.

 

Worry about such details after 28, 30 games in.

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26 minutes ago, oldnews said:

 

You are so ludicrous and transparent.

 

You will tell other posters they are dumb by incorrectly expounding on tiny micro stats with only a few games of sample size that have zero statistical relevance due to the volatility of tiny numbers.... but given a mathematically valid statistical inference of probability based on more than a third ofthe season, and you are suddenly “umm duh, but what about anomalies!!! Anything can happen!!  Statistics are bad because the ones you are using don’t conform to my random beliefs!”

 

We are much less likely to make the playoffs than make it... by a massive margin right now. 83-85% chance of missing.  Playing those odds are smarter than holding your breath and hoping for the best.  Odds can be wrong over a single or few instances... but they are odds for a reason.  The house always comes out ahead in the end.

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10 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

We basically need Montreal and Toronto to keep winning, and have Ottawa steal points from teams we're chasing while going on a run ourselves. It's doable, but it's not something I'd bet on. Playing so many games early didn't help, but maybe we'll be able to knock off some gassed teams playing catch up in the second half.

 

I hope we make it, but I'm not expecting us to. I'd love to be wrong. 

That is exactly the scenario I laid out and you are spot on.

There is a path, but it is much more narrow than in other years since there are no other teams to help us out that we aren’t competing against.

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In some ways there are similarities to last yr. I recall making a thread(around Nov 2019; pre-COVID insanity) about comparing our season-slog to a marathon. Had suggested the team would benefit from running a negative-split, where your 2nd 21 km's is a faster pace than the first half run.

 

Of course this time it's a necessity. The beauty is, if you keep gaining pace you can hit the PO's like a house a'fire.

 

Would argue this team can certainly take this route. They don't win from only one element. They're young, but they can beat you in a variety of ways. Such teams have more staying power, & the ability to finish strong.

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1 hour ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 
 

Sounds like you’ve got things figured out.   No need to watch the rest of the games for this season in that case.  :-/

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8 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

The thing is every game this season is basically a 4 point game. The trick is getting wins in regulation. Getting a win in regulation means a team your chasing is denied any points. I'm ok if this season the team takes a step backwards. As long as going forward the team gets better. 

Exactly.

 

When you 'replace' veterans with rookies, it tends to take some time to get up to speed.

 

Marky out, Demko in.

Tanev out, Juolevi in (although OJ does not replace Tanev's role)

Toffoli out, Hoglander in.

 

Has the team gotten better?  Not in the first month, but longer term?  It's a 'risk' you have to take as you bank on the futures of your core who are nowhere near their primes yet (one Horvat aside, who is approaching his).

 It may take some development time, but few people around here would prefer the reverse - Demko dealt, Juolevi dumped as if a bust by half the people on these boards, and endless crying about Toffoli while there's another Calder quality young player in his vacated position (which he scarcely held).

 

As I've said elsewhere, I'd probably increase the risk of a step back to the degree of dealing a veteran winger (Roussel, Pearson) in order to bank/do away with some bonus cap up front this season - but beyond that - let the chips fall.   And I think it's safe to say that the team we saw struggle early this season is not necessarily as representative as the team we've seen on bookends of that cold, covid, compressed start to the season....So I am a long way from writing this team off, even in the short run - but I'm also on board with playing the long game here.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Provost said:

It is nice to live in hope, but the unique way the league is set up this year means that we are practically unlikely, even if we are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Since it is only in division games, points will be awarded to the teams we are chasing on any given night.  The normal path to gain ground in a playoff chase from other seasons is that a team falters and loses points to non division rivals, meaning that we can catch them just by playing better than they do.  That simply doesn't exist this year.

Since we have already fallen behind, we don't have to catch one team to make the playoffs, we have to surpass two of the three teams above us (Toronto and Montreal are already out of reach).

The three teams we are realistically chasing play around 20 more games against each other... meaning we have no chance at all of gaining ground on them those games, even if we won 100% of our games on the same night (which we obviously won't).  At least two points will be awarded to one of the teams we are chasing, and sometimes 3 points.  We only have a chance of matching or losing ground in a big chunk of the remaining games to be played by our rivals against each other.

That is a big chunk of the season remaining and opportunities to catch up.  Once you correct for games in hand and winning percentages, we are currently:
- about 4.2 points behind Calgary
- about 6.75 points behind Winnipeg
- about 5.2 points behind Edmonton

Assuming around 63 points to make the playoffs that means we would have to play .640 hockey the rest of the way out (23-13 record).  The teams we are chasing only need to crack .550 the rest of the way out to stay ahead of us and reach that 63 points plateau.  Specifically, only two of them need to hit that mark for us to not make the playoffs even if we went on a huge hot streak.  Refer back to the above point where they play each other a lot and at least one team is going to get points and it will be harder for them all to drop to lower than .500 since they are sharing so many guaranteed points between them.

So, unlike most seasons... we have only a few paths to the playoffs now and they are much more limited and unlikely than in normal years.

1.  Toronto and Montreal basically run the table when they play at least 2 of Calgary, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.. but Toronto and Montreal don't dominate us in similar fashion so we can make up points in those games.
2.  Ottawa steals a bunch of points from two of those three teams we are chasing (but not so much that Ottawa passes us as well), but doesn't steal points from us in similar fashion.
3.  We win around 3/4ths of our remaining games against two of the three teams we are chasing

All of those are possible, but not terribly likely.  Our current odds of making the playoffs sit at 15-17% according to sites like Moneypuck.

Our next 6 games are against those teams we are chasing.  We probably have to go 5-1 over that stretch to have made up any ground at all on at least two of the teams we need to pass (gaining ground on one team doesn't do us any good since they would be giving up points to one of the other teams we are also chasing at the same time).  Going 3-3 even probably puts the practical seal on our playoff chances since there would be far fewer games left at that point to make up the ground still needed... 
 

Really @Provost?

 

The Canucks lost a bunch of games recently -  six - and we are "only" 9 points away from 1st seed Toronto and 3 points away from 2nd seed Montreal. At the same time, earlier in the season, Edmonton and Calgary weren't doing much better than the Canucks. In fact, Edmonton started to click only recently. They are "only" 3 points ahead - same as Montreal.

 

For all the praise that Toronto and Montreal gets, this North division is hardly out of reach. There's still 40 something games left - a lot of hockey to be played. I think the team is starting to turn it around now. Losing the six games early on might be a blessing in disguise. As our schedule eases up, the Canucks may very well soar from this point forward.

 

This thread is beyond asinine.

Edited by Dazzle
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2 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

Really @Provost?

 

The Canucks lost a bunch of games recently -  six - and we are "only" 9 points away from 1st seed Toronto and 3 points away from 2nd seed Montreal. At the same time, earlier in the season, Edmonton and Calgary weren't doing much better than the Canucks. In fact, Edmonton started to click only recently. They are "only" 3 points ahead - same as Montreal.

 

For all the praise that Toronto and Montreal gets, this North division is hardly out of reach. There's still 40 something games left - a lot of hockey to be player. I think the team is starting to turn it around now. Losing the six games early on might be a blessing in disguise. As our schedule eases up, the Canucks may very well soar from this point forward.

 

This thread is beyond asinine.

 

 

 

And this post is exactly why this thread is necessary.  Too many people are buying into an illusion brought on by the fact we have played 20-30% more games than some teams ahead of us.

 

We are already 9 points behind Toronto this early and having played 4 games for every 3 games they have played.  Over a full season that means we would be far behind them in a playoff race even if they only got to play 13 games less.

 

We have gotten to play 4 games for every 3 Montreal has played... and they are well ahead of us.  That would be like them only getting to play 60 games in a season that we get to play 82... and still beating us.

 

It is actually hard to be this far behind so early with other teams having so many games in hand.  It is also why we have players showing up so well in that stats... they have played almost double the games of some other teams in the league... so are behind in PPG.

 

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Just now, Provost said:

And this post is exactly why this thread is necessary.  Too many people are buying into an illusion brought on by the fact we have played 20-30% more games than some teams ahead of us.

 

We are already 9 points behind Toronto this early and having played 4 games for every 3 games they have played.  Over a full season that means we would be far behind them in a playoff race even if they only got to play 13 games less.

 

We have gotten to play 4 games for every 3 Montreal has played... and they are well ahead of us.  That would be like them only getting to play 60 games in a season that we get to play 82... and still beating us.

 

It is actually hard to be this far behind so early with other teams having so many games in hand.  It is also why we have players showing up so well in that stats... they have played almost double the games of some other teams in the league... so are behind in PPG.

 

Nah I'm not buying it

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3 minutes ago, Provost said:

And this post is exactly why this thread is necessary.  Too many people are buying into an illusion brought on by the fact we have played 20-30% more games than some teams ahead of us.

 

We are already 9 points behind Toronto this early and having played 4 games for every 3 games they have played.  Over a full season that means we would be far behind them in a playoff race even if they only got to play 13 games less.

 

We have gotten to play 4 games for every 3 Montreal has played... and they are well ahead of us.  That would be like them only getting to play 60 games in a season that we get to play 82... and still beating us.

 

It is actually hard to be this far behind so early with other teams having so many games in hand.  It is also why we have players showing up so well in that stats... they have played almost double the games of some other teams in the league... so are behind in PPG.

 

And you expect to convince people that you know better?

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This is very simplistic. It's mathematically difficult but a multitude of things could and probably will happen. If we play relatively high level hockey, i.e., better than those 3 teams generally we would be right there depending on Ottawa stealing some games. Funny thing, teams and players progress as the year go on. There are bound to be some streaks and changes going down the stretch that radically alter this years race.

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44 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Exactly.

 

When you 'replace' veterans with rookies, it tends to take some time to get up to speed.

 

Marky out, Demko in.

Tanev out, Juolevi in (although OJ does not replace Tanev's role)

Toffoli out, Hoglander in.

 

Has the team gotten better?  Not in the first month, but longer term?  It's a 'risk' you have to take as you bank on the futures of your core who are nowhere near their primes yet (one Horvat aside, who is approaching his).

 It may take some development time, but few people around here would prefer the reverse - Demko dealt, Juolevi dumped as if a bust by half the people on these boards, and endless crying about Toffoli while there's another Calder quality young player in his vacated position (which he scarcely held).

 

As I've said elsewhere, I'd probably increase the risk of a step back to the degree of dealing a veteran winger (Roussel, Pearson) in order to bank/do away with some bonus cap up front this season - but beyond that - let the chips fall.   And I think it's safe to say that the team we saw struggle early this season is not necessarily as representative as the team we've seen on bookends of that cold, covid, compressed start to the season....So I am a long way from writing this team off, even in the short run - but I'm also on board with playing the long game here.  

 

 

That hits the nail, ON

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Gotta have faith in your players to a certain point. If you lose faith and trade assets when they feel it is way too early to do so then they’ll lose faith in the management. 
 

Last thing I wanna see is a key player wanting out. That would only serve to set us back further. 
 

Let’s see where the team is a month from now and reevaluate then. If we’re out of the playoff picture then we’ll still have plenty of time to trade any of our expiring UFAs. 
 

TD is April 12th. 

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6 minutes ago, Junkyard Dog said:

Gotta have faith in your players to a certain point. If you lose faith and trade assets when they feel it is way too early to do so then they’ll lose faith in the management. 
 

Last thing I wanna see is a key player wanting out. That would only serve to set us back further. 
 

Let’s see where the team is a month from now and reevaluate then. If we’re out of the playoff picture then we’ll still have plenty of time to trade any of our expiring UFAs. 
 

TD is April 12th. 

Exactly this. Even then, we shouldn't do anything drastic in what's already a weird year. In my opinion, this year should be allowed as a "one-off" for any team who's not playing to what's expected, and I was thinking this even before the season started.

 

I'm just happy we have hockey. Remember, it could have happened where we didn't have a season at all.

Edited by The Lock
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I haven’t had this many people disagree with me (mostly the same ones) since I suggested in the middle of last season that Virtanen was likely having a statistical “blip” in performance and would regress back to his norm.  All of the same type of wording on the  responses back then about how I was insane and he had turned a corner in development and was finally a star player.

 

This is familiar territory from quite a number of times I posted something unpopular.

 

This will likely follow the same well worn pattern:

1.  Folks are shocked and angry, flaming me with all sorts of ad hominem attacks 

2.  History proves me to be right.

3.  Those people pretended they knew it all along or that no one could have predicted it.

4.  Rinse, Repeat.  
 

I hope we beat the odds and go on a tear, or Winnipeg takes off and steals all the points from both Edmonton and Calgary.  I just wouldn’t impact our future for those hopes.
 


 

Edited by Provost
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