iinatcc Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 13 hours ago, AK_19 said: At this point tanking isn't even much of a benefit since the top end of the draft is relatively weak and because of the covid year everyone's under-scouted. I've never seen such a lack of consensus since following the drafts since 2007. We're likely to see a lot of top players in the draft not in the top 10. Yeah I am calling it now Canucks finally get to pick in the Top 3 at a time when players cannot be fully scouted. Who would have thought "anuck Luck" would extend during a Global Pandemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, iinatcc said: Yeah I am calling it now Canucks finally get to pick in the Top 3 at a time when players cannot be fully scouted. Who would have thought "anuck Luck" would extend during a Global Pandemic. Oh, you are cute and so optimistic! Picking in the top 3 gives us a great chance to fluke out and get a great player. Clearly, the “Canucks” thing to do will be to go on a run right at the end of the season during meaningless games and manage to put ourselves in to the 8-12 spot for the draft , so we still miss the playoffs by a long shot, but get a crappier draft pick. For those getting excited about our recent improved play. Guess how much closer to the playoffs bar we are than 10 games ago? Exactly zero points closer.... we have lost more ground on everyone except Montreal, who we equalled in points. The other three have moved even farther ahead of us. That is bad news as Montreal started way ahead of us and was less reachable to start with. Edmonton and Winnipeg were closer in reach but have now spread their lead on us. We are still 9-10 points out of a playoff spot once you factor in games in hand. The whole point of the start of the thread was that basically no matter how we play over the stretch (short of being the best in the league and the right combination of other teams losing)... there was no way to make up the ground. Making up at least 10 points in 28 games is virtually impossible with so many games being played between teams ahead of us with guaranteed points that one of them will get on a given night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinatcc Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Provost said: Oh, you are cute and so optimistic! Well that's why people call me Mr. Optimistic at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinatcc Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Provost said: Clearly, the “Canucks” thing to do will be to go on a run right at the end of the season during meaningless games and manage to put ourselves in to the 8-12 spot for the draft , so we still miss the playoffs by a long shot, but get a crappier draft pick. I remember the 2 seasons before the one last year I think the Canucks would get into a run by late march when the playoffs were already out of reach. This was still the time when we were still uncertain Markstrom would be a 1 Goalie, so I would get frustrated when he would get hot when the Playoffs were out of reach so winning would just mean dropping the changes in the lottery. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, iinatcc said: I remember the 2 seasons before the one last year I think the Canucks would get into a run by late march when the playoffs were already out of reach. This was still the time when we were still uncertain Markstrom would be a 1 Goalie, so I would get frustrated when he would get hot when the Playoffs were out of reach so winning would just mean dropping the changes in the lottery. Ya, I specifically remember 2015-16 when the California teams were still good. We had lost against them all season. We had a last road trip through all of them to end the season and proceeded to sweep them all and get 6 points. It accomplished nothing except drop our draft position from the worst in the league to 3rd (resulting in Juolevi and not Matthews). One of the heroes... Dan Hamhuis, a guy who shouldn’t have even been here after that trade deadline. So when we “run out of time” to move our veterans at the trade deadline... and the other bottom dwellers make all those trades and are icing half AHL rosters for the final weeks... I can see it happening again. Edited March 8, 2021 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
freshhprince95 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 17 hours ago, Provost said: Oh, you are cute and so optimistic! Picking in the top 3 gives us a great chance to fluke out and get a great player. Clearly, the “Canucks” thing to do will be to go on a run right at the end of the season during meaningless games and manage to put ourselves in to the 8-12 spot for the draft , so we still miss the playoffs by a long shot, but get a crappier draft pick. For those getting excited about our recent improved play. Guess how much closer to the playoffs bar we are than 10 games ago? Exactly zero points closer.... we have lost more ground on everyone except Montreal, who we equalled in points. The other three have moved even farther ahead of us. That is bad news as Montreal started way ahead of us and was less reachable to start with. Edmonton and Winnipeg were closer in reach but have now spread their lead on us. We are still 9-10 points out of a playoff spot once you factor in games in hand. The whole point of the start of the thread was that basically no matter how we play over the stretch (short of being the best in the league and the right combination of other teams losing)... there was no way to make up the ground. Making up at least 10 points in 28 games is virtually impossible with so many games being played between teams ahead of us with guaranteed points that one of them will get on a given night. "there was no way to make up the ground" not saying this happens but TECHNICALLY, let's say that the only team left within reach is EDM hence (TOR,WPG and MTL secure top 3). we are 10 points behind with games in hand factored in and play them 6 more times. This is theoretically one the "ways" to make up ground, is to win 5/6 games at least against EDM. Having said that I think we miss the playoffs by like 10ish points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Need to keep winning. Can’t count on other teams to hopefully not pick up points. Can’t afford many, if any, regulation losses this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogersTowell Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Cheer up, folks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddieVedder Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Still undefeated 3 - 0 since this meme was created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Junkyard Dog said: Need to keep winning. Can’t count on other teams to hopefully not pick up points. Can’t afford many, if any, regulation losses this month. If all the other teams in the division play .500 hockey for the rest of this month and the Canucks win 7 out of their 9 remaining games, they would just barely be out of the top-4 in point percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kloubek Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, mll said: If all the other teams in the division play .500 hockey for the rest of this month ...which, I may add, is impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 The division is evening up a bit now and will continue to do so as the teams who have played 5 less games than us cram them in with back to backs. I know JB used it as an excuse, but look how bad Toronto played against us after their back to back. It's a hard division to be catching up those games in hand with the travel and I think all of the teams ahead of us will struggle, so things will even out. Moreso, our kids are finally playing well, Demko has arrived, Miller is playing like a 1st line center finally, Boeser is somehow getting stronger as the season goes on, Hughes is still garbage defensively, Horvat looks like he's playing better and the kids Virtanen and especially Gaudette are finally chipping in. This Canucks team is finally clicking and yes, they have to put some big strings of wins together, but it can be done, especially if those wins are against Montreal, Winnipeg and Calgary. We need a couple of 7-3 runs to bust into the playoffs right now and we're currently on a 4-1 stretch so we just need to keep it up. In the long run we need to play at 0.65 hockey, but in the short run if we just go 14-6 (last 3 games included) we'll be a game over .500 and depending who those wins come against, it might be good to sneak us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mll Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, kloubek said: ...which, I may add, is impossible. It should be possible because of the 3 point games. Could probably model it. A .500 record is the equivalent of a team losing all their remaining March games in OT. Every given game one team is going to have to win so to keep the .500 record a team that wins just has to be assumed to lose the next game in regulation rather than OT. Toronto and Ottawa are at the extremes so doesn’t even really matter if they play .500 which should even simplify the model. Edited March 9, 2021 by mll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbllpp Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Destiny is still in the Canucks hands Edmonton 2 games in hand max 36 points if they win both, we beat them in the remaining 6 games against them it gives us 38 points Cgy 3 games in hand max 31 points if they win all of them. we beat them in the remaining 4 games vs them gives us 34 points Mtl 5 games in hand, they go at their current.600 pace that puts them at 35 points, we take the last 3 against them it puts us within reach at 32 points 13 must win games, take another 5-6 out of the remaining 14 against TO, Ott and WPG would probably be enough to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 On 3/8/2021 at 4:31 AM, Provost said: Oh, you are cute and so optimistic! Picking in the top 3 gives us a great chance to fluke out and get a great player. Clearly, the “Canucks” thing to do will be to go on a run right at the end of the season during meaningless games and manage to put ourselves in to the 8-12 spot for the draft , so we still miss the playoffs by a long shot, but get a crappier draft pick. For those getting excited about our recent improved play. Guess how much closer to the playoffs bar we are than 10 games ago? Exactly zero points closer.... we have lost more ground on everyone except Montreal, who we equalled in points. The other three have moved even farther ahead of us. That is bad news as Montreal started way ahead of us and was less reachable to start with. Edmonton and Winnipeg were closer in reach but have now spread their lead on us. We are still 9-10 points out of a playoff spot once you factor in games in hand. The whole point of the start of the thread was that basically no matter how we play over the stretch (short of being the best in the league and the right combination of other teams losing)... there was no way to make up the ground. Making up at least 10 points in 28 games is virtually impossible with so many games being played between teams ahead of us with guaranteed points that one of them will get on a given night. The only teams they are focused on is Edmonton and Montreal. They're not chasing anyone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RomanP Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 On 3/8/2021 at 4:31 AM, Provost said: We are still 9-10 points out of a playoff spot once you factor in games in hand. The whole point of the start of the thread was that basically no matter how we play over the stretch (short of being the best in the league and the right combination of other teams losing)... there was no way to make up the ground. Well, yes and no. It is indeed 9-10 points if you use their point percentage over their entire season (60.4%) for these games in hand. However, their last 10 games they are only at 40% (3-2-5). With this percentage, we are only 7-8 points behind. With 3 games head-to-head, it's not as unrealistic as it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanfor42 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 (edited) Of course it is an uphill climb to make the playoffs after such a poor start. But why OP do you beat this drum? What is the point of this thread and your repeatedly going back to say the same thing over and over? Are you going to turn the franchise around with your negative take? What is your point partner? And BTW Canucks play Edm 6 times coming up. Win 5 of those and you could turn out to be wrong chicken little. This is a great example of a "selfie" thread. ( Look at me). (Here let me pose for you). You wanted to make a point that you called the end of the season early. And your pride makes you stick to that proposition and defend it now. You are now cheering for the Canucks to lose so you can be right. Am I right? Though so. You write like you are a smart guy. Would be so much better if you put your talents and effort towards something that benefits the team and other fans instead of just doing a "selfie". Edited March 10, 2021 by fanfor42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, RomanP said: Well, yes and no. It is indeed 9-10 points if you use their point percentage over their entire season (60.4%) for these games in hand. However, their last 10 games they are only at 40% (3-2-5). With this percentage, we are only 7-8 points behind. With 3 games head-to-head, it's not as unrealistic as it used to be. The math gets pretty torturous. It requires us to win at close to double the winning percent we managed so far this season... and teams we are chasing to win at close to half the rate they have been so far this season. If we play at a .600 Pace the rest of the way out (like the last 10 games( that gets us to 58.4 points If they play at .400 they reach 60 points. it isn’t impossible... but virtually so. We also have to hope that Calgary doesn’t win either as they are ahead of us when considering games in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Convincing John Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 We still aren’t making it but I’m entertained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted March 10, 2021 Author Share Posted March 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, fanfor42 said: Of course it is an uphill climb to make the playoffs after such a poor start. But why OP do you beat this drum? What is the point of this thread and your repeatedly going back to say the same thing over and over? Are you going to turn the franchise around with your negative take? What is your point partner? Are you going to turn to the franchise around by ignoring reality? If you go back and read the thread, you can see why it matters to be realistic (not negative) and how making decisions for the future can positively impact our team’s success and ability to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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