[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Toyotasfan]

I’m going to check back when our winning streak hits 10 games

[Gollumpus]

6 hours ago, Provost said:

Are you going to turn to the franchise around by ignoring reality?

 

If you go back and read the thread, you can see why it matters to be realistic (not negative) and how making decisions for the future can positively impact our team’s success and ability to win.

Well, you do realize that if you were to go back and read this thread (or others), you would see that your view of realism involves a pessimistic perspective on past events, and how the future will unfold. You may say that you are being "realistic", that the truth hurts, or any other such comment, but the vast majority of your comments come down on the side of doom and gloom, and you're just waiting for ownership, management, the coaching staff and the players to fail in fulfilling the hopes and dreams of the fanbase... just so you can say, "I told you so.

 

This is not to suggest that you are trolling or are engaged in other such activity. It does point out that if one attempts to be the voice of reason or realism, being somewhere closer to the middle is an advantageous starting point.

 

                                                               regards,  G.

 

PS - didn't have to go far for these:

 

On 3/8/2021 at 4:31 AM, Provost said:

Oh, you are cute and so optimistic!

 

Picking in the top 3 gives us a great chance to fluke out and get a great player.

 

Clearly, the “Canucks” thing to do will be to go on a run right at the end of the season during meaningless games 

 and manage to put ourselves in to the 8-12 spot for the draft , so we still miss the playoffs by a long shot, but get a crappier draft pick.

 

For those getting excited about our recent improved play.  Guess how much closer to the playoffs bar we are than 10 games ago?

 

Exactly zero points closer.... we have lost more ground on everyone except Montreal, who we equalled in points.  

 
The other three have moved even farther ahead of us.  That is bad news as Montreal started way ahead of us and was less reachable to start with.  Edmonton and Winnipeg were closer in reach but have now spread their lead on us.

 

We are still 9-10 points out of a playoff spot once you factor in games in hand.  The whole point of the start of the thread was that basically no matter how we play over the stretch (short of being the best in the league and the right combination of other teams losing)... there was no way to make up the ground.

 

Making up at least 10 points in 28 games is virtually impossible with so many games being played between teams ahead of us with guaranteed points that one of them will get on a given night.

 

On 3/8/2021 at 7:01 AM, Provost said:

Ya, I specifically remember 2015-16 when the California teams were still good.  We had lost against them all season.

We had a last road trip through all of them to end the season and proceeded to sweep them all and get 6 points.  It accomplished nothing except drop our draft position from the worst in the league to 3rd (resulting in Juolevi and not Matthews).  One of the heroes... Dan Hamhuis, a guy who shouldn’t have even been here after that trade deadline.

 

So when we “run out of time” to move our veterans at the trade deadline... and the other bottom dwellers make all those trades and are icing half AHL rosters for the final weeks... I can see it happening again.

 

[RU SERIOUS]

I just ran the numbers again and figured out that if we win 71% of our remaining games and Montreal, Calgary and Edmonton only win half their games - were in !

In other words..............golf season is around the corner for us! 

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Toyotasfan said:

I’m going to check back when our winning streak hits 10 games

Provost if that happens....

[RomanP]

16 hours ago, Provost said:

The math gets pretty torturous.  It requires us to win at close to double the winning percent we managed so far this season... and teams we are chasing to win at close to half the rate they have been so far this season.

 

If we play at a .600 Pace the rest of the way out (like the last 10 games( that gets us to 58.4 points 

 

If they play at .400 they reach 60 points.

 

it isn’t impossible... but virtually so.  We also have to hope that Calgary doesn’t win either as they are ahead of us when considering games in hand.

 

 

Sorry, but your math teacher would not be proud :-). Montreal has 29 points in 24 games. They have 32 games left (possible 64 points). Playing at .400 gets them additional 26 (25.6) points for a total of 55. In order to reach 56 points, we have to play at 56% pace. Obviously, there are a lot of other factors, but if we play even at 60%, what will matter is who we are getting these points against.

 

Here's another math exercise. Let's say (hypothetically) Montreal plays these 5 games in hand before we play them and get their current .400 run (4 points). That brings them to 33 points. Let's say we win all 3 remaining games against them, which now brings us to 32 points, with equal number of games. Is 1 point that hard to overcome over the remaining 24 games? Again, this is just pure math and there are a lot of other components in play.

[IBatch]

43 minutes ago, RomanP said:

Sorry, but your math teacher would not be proud :-). Montreal has 29 points in 24 games. They have 32 games left (possible 64 points). Playing at .400 gets them additional 26 (25.6) points for a total of 55. In order to reach 56 points, we have to play at 56% pace. Obviously, there are a lot of other factors, but if we play even at 60%, what will matter is who we are getting these points against.

 

Here's another math exercise. Let's say (hypothetically) Montreal plays these 5 games in hand before we play them and get their current .400 run (4 points). That brings them to 33 points. Let's say we win all 3 remaining games against them, which now brings us to 32 points, with equal number of games. Is 1 point that hard to overcome over the remaining 24 games? Again, this is just pure math and there are a lot of other components in play.

Until we are eliminated.   There is a path.  I don't know math very well but understand arithmetic just fine.   And folks used to build bridges that last to this day using arithmetic.   Provost has a 85% chance at being right - easy odds and saying i told you so later.  Unfortunately the math is tougher - add the x value of the team winning three without EP,  the fact we've carried the balance of the play the last 12 games (l) , won the last 4 of five (+ Ep to the power of 3) CAL and MTL fired their coaches (C=M - Markstrom plus TT only scores against V times the number of games left) divided into some bracket stuff - and yeah maybe the odds are closer to 50/50 at this point.  

 

Edit:  I forgot the D factor - as in Demko.  Total shots against BD (bubble Demko) against shots for (BB factor) means we have a 99% chance of making the show x (LOL).   Provost - i know you haven't said you'd  tattoo Demko on your face (like one poster did) if we make the show - but do feel that you should up your game and maybe Tattoo your entire body like Demko just to save face.    Also need to factor in P as in Patience.   Something this fan base needs to show more of.  

 

 

Edited March 10, 2021 by IBatch

[AV.]

Many still in denial about playoffs here.

 

How sad...

 

Life under Benning.

[DownUndaCanuck]

7 games against Ottawa.

4 games against Calgary.

 

Say we go a conservative 5-2 against Ottawa and 2-1-1 against Calgary.

 

That puts our record to 19-18-3.

 

 

If we can manage that, the decider of the playoffs is then our games against Montreal and Edmonton which we've proved lately we can win.

 

11 games against teams arguably worse than us really changes things, it can get us back up to the fringe of the playoffs and then these key 4 point games against our direct playoff bound rivals make or break the season.

 

[CanucksJay]

Looks like the only way Sens can help is injuring McDavid and Draisaitle otherwise Oilers look like they'll continue to roll. 

[CanucksJay]

5 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

7 games against Ottawa.

4 games against Calgary.

 

Say we go a conservative 5-2 against Ottawa and 2-1-1 against Calgary.

 

That puts our record to 19-18-3.

 

 

If we can manage that, the decider of the playoffs is then our games against Montreal and Edmonton which we've proved lately we can win.

 

11 games against teams arguably worse than us really changes things, it can get us back up to the fringe of the playoffs and then these key 4 point games against our direct playoff bound rivals make or break the season.

 

Absolutely. 

Also we are chasing Edmonton and have 6 more games VS them. 

If we can't beat them in the series, we rightfully don't deserve a playoff spot

 

Edit

 

I think we need to run the table on Ottawa and go 7-0.

There's no reason why we couldn't unless we didn't give it our all... 

 

That would be 21-16-3

If 65 pts make it, our other 16 games needs to be 10-6 in which we play 

Leafs x 4

Mtl x 3

Oilers x 6

Jets x 3

 

I think it's doable no? 

Edited March 11, 2021 by CanucksJay

[Patrik Laine]

I'm pretty sure Tyler Myers can "reach" anything 

[CanucksJay]

Also if after all this, they miss the playoffs but go on a great run, I'm not disappointed that we didn't tank for a high draft pick. 

The Canucks aren't pretenders. Every season, we'll see an underperforming team go on a run in an effort to gain self respect. We normally see this led by veterans. 

The Canucks have been in my opinion outplaying their opponents since Feb 8. There was a 2 week stint where their play wasn't reflected in their results. However it's the young core of the team that is leading the charge. 

Whatever run they go on this year will make them better next year. 

[Gollumpus]

So, I see that the playoffs have now been declared as being "officially" out of reach. Good to know. Saves me watching the remaining games, and gives me more time to devote to reading, or to see what happens in the Brier... unless that too has already been officially declared over. I should check, I suppose.

 

Also, couldn't this decision have been reached sooner, like before the season started, or perhaps a few years ago, so that the rest of us could have made better use of our time?  

 

                                                               regards,  G.

[RogersTowell]

If we manage fewer than 10 regulation losses for the rest of the season, it's doable.  Stop fudging numbers and just look at the real world.  4 of 7 teams in the North make the playoffs.  If we're 35-25-6 we're gold.  If we're 31-25-10 we're gold.  Honestly, we can even lose more than 10 regulation.31-27-8 gets us 70 points - more than enough to make it.  Win at least two for every regulation loss and we're looking good.

 

Will it happen?  Not sure, but it's a lot more possible than it was five games back.  Honestly, five games back, I was thinking it was probably not going to happen.  Now I see the light way down at the end of this tunnel and I'm hoping we make it.  I don't think last season was a fluke - our team was good enough to make the playoffs and make a statement during them.  We're not much different in a lot of ways from that team, but for one reason or another things got off the rails for the first 20 games.  It's starting to look like Green has figured out what was wrong and fixed it.  This last five games was like a test drive of your car after getting it back from the shop.  It's running a lot better now and with luck will keep going well with some regular maintenance.

[oldnews]

2 hours ago, Gollumpus said:

So, I see that the playoffs have now been declared as being "officially" out of reach. Good to know. Saves me watching the remaining games, and gives me more time to devote to reading, or to see what happens in the Brier... unless that too has already been officially declared over. I should check, I suppose.

 

Also, couldn't this decision have been reached sooner, like before the season started, or perhaps a few years ago, so that the rest of us could have made better use of our time?  

 

                                                               regards,  G.

I guess you missed @Provost's "Draft lotter simulator" thread from last year. 

That one didn't pan out so well.

"Sigh".  

I guess maybe it's the need to climb be 'right' - to make up for - dig out of that 0% rate of prediction... 

 

Or the original of this thread, posted weeks before, maybe two weeks into the season - this one being the retread version.

 

I agree with you - why anyone would repeatedly want to invest in so much negative expectations - is a mystery.

 

The much larger sample last season is a good counterbalance to dwelling on the first month of this season - with the playoff birth - and an epic series knocking off the defending Champions.  The last 10+ games have been a pleasure to watch, as well.  

 

Anyhow, cheers G.

[Provost]

2 hours ago, oldnews said:

 

Ok... keep making stuff up.  
 

Yawn.

Math is math.  The fact you can’t see it isn’t on me.  
 

If it makes you sad that we have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs, don’t lash out on others.

 

No one would be happier if we bucked the huge odds against, but also keeping actual objective mathematical reality in mind isn’t a character flaw.  The house always wins in the end.

 

 

 

[RU SERIOUS]

6 hours ago, RogersTowell said:

If we manage fewer than 10 regulation losses for the rest of the season, it's doable.  Stop fudging numbers and just look at the real world.  4 of 7 teams in the North make the playoffs.  If we're 35-25-6 we're gold.  If we're 31-25-10 we're gold.  Honestly, we can even lose more than 10 regulation.31-27-8 gets us 70 points - more than enough to make it.  Win at least two for every regulation loss and we're looking good.

 

Will it happen?  Not sure, but it's a lot more possible than it was five games back.  Honestly, five games back, I was thinking it was probably not going to happen.  Now I see the light way down at the end of this tunnel and I'm hoping we make it.  I don't think last season was a fluke - our team was good enough to make the playoffs and make a statement during them.  We're not much different in a lot of ways from that team, but for one reason or another things got off the rails for the first 20 games.  It's starting to look like Green has figured out what was wrong and fixed it.  This last five games was like a test drive of your car after getting it back from the shop.  It's running a lot better now and with luck will keep going well with some regular maintenance.

We officially have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs.  Sorry to burst your balloon.  Save your energy for the 21-22 season.

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, CanucksJay said:

Also if after all this, they miss the playoffs but go on a great run, I'm not disappointed that we didn't tank for a high draft pick. 

The Canucks aren't pretenders. Every season, we'll see an underperforming team go on a run in an effort to gain self respect. We normally see this led by veterans. 

The Canucks have been in my opinion outplaying their opponents since Feb 8. There was a 2 week stint where their play wasn't reflected in their results. However it's the young core of the team that is leading the charge. 

Whatever run they go on this year will make them better next year. 

Getting a top three player would be incredible - but would be shameful with this roster at the same time.   Players don't need a "losing culture", but to push to the bitter end.   Given most of our future core is already on the team (we won't be able to afford much more then what's already here plus Podz and OJ) - going through this now hopefully will be an invaluable experience for them in the sense never to let off the gas - and  just cut it out with the losing streaks already.   Get the frustrations, i'm frustrated too but agree with Aquaman that ascension or rebuilding or whatever isn't always straight up or linear.   Like going to the finals or conference before winning the cup, there will be ups and downs plus experiences required to make this work.   JB put us on that path - and for sure Aqua and management and coaching is smart enough to know that a down year was a distinct possibility going into this season - gave us just enough to stay around the same talent wise (a shade less really - especially goaltending) against a group of teams we really had a tough time against last year who all improved their lineups...

 

Edit:  As for JB.   He's guilty of both creating a great young core - and saddling it with wasted cap.   Forgivable but for sure not ideal.   I'm worried like anyone else that that he will screw it up - that said he's earned the right to screw it up - so will tow the line .... IMO last off season was his best one to date.   Because he let the entire crew go.   Saved 80 million in cap space over the next 2-4 years (minus Holtby's years or it would be 4-6).... the team he can create now has way way more potential then the one we'd have during the teams peak window by going with the same old same old - which for sure would backfire at some point.   Instead of mediocre - we now can be below mediocre to contenders....all comes down to what happens next....

Edited March 11, 2021 by IBatch

[oldnews]

10 hours ago, Provost said:

Ok... keep making stuff up.  
 

No need to make anything up.  Making stuff up is your gig.   'Er, Virtanen cost the team 30 goals'...because... 'I said so analytics!'

 

 

12 hours ago, oldnews said:

I guess you missed @Provost's "Draft lotter simulator" thread from last year. 

 

"Sigh".  

 

Or the original of this thread, posted weeks before, maybe two weeks into the season - this one being the retread version.

 

 

 

Posted 10 days before this retread thread.

[Provost]

1 hour ago, oldnews said:

No need to make anything up.  Making stuff up is your gig.   'Er, Virtanen cost the team 30 goals'...because... 'I said so analytics!'

 

 

 

 

 

Posted 10 days before this retread thread.

Literally nowhere did I say we were going to miss the playoffs last season... I said "I hope we string a few wins together so this doesn't come into play more than just that one day that we fell out of the playoff picture".  You are inventing a false narrative.  I didn't predict anything, cry wolf, or anything along those lines.

The 2nd thread is a great piece of evidence that I was right and able to do math better than you are.... reading in that thread, and this one... YOUR posts have turned out to be wrong... so some pretty serious gaslighting you are doing there rather than simply admitting you were wrong and some folks are better able to do math than you.

I will make you one of your silly deals that you always propose.  If the Canucks make the playoffs this year, I will sign off the board.  If the Canucks don't make the playoffs this year you leave forever.

Of course, I also know that even if you made that deal you would lie and not honour it... just like the one you made to stop stalking me and posting negative nonsense on all my posts.  That one lasted about 15 minutes after I called your bluff... just like you lied about it the time before you proposed your silly gentleman's agreement and I put you on ignore and you kept talking nonsense smack.

I know it makes you mad when someone provides evidence that you are generally completely full of crap... but take it as a learning experience instead of refusing to admit you are wrong.  I know this ream of postings is as a result of me showing that your obsession with using oZone start % and Corsi comparisons to rate a player were entirely meaningless.  I posted the link to presentation made at a hockey analytics conference by one of the most well regarded phDs in the field that directly showed the stuff you spout is meaningless... and you just ignored that and started posting more of this nonsense out of frustration for being wrong yet again.

I know it is your schtick.... but I also know that you are sitting there filled with frustration about yet again being proven wrong, so now you are going through old threads to take out of context and lie about to make yourself feel better.